How Many of Cutler’s Sacks Are His Fault?
By LUIS DELOUREIRO Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press
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It wasn’t a problem to find a picture of Jay Cutler’s being sacked for this blog post. And that’s a problem for the Bears.
Luis DeLoureiro operates NFLStatAnalysis.net and is a contributor to the Cold Hard Football Facts.
In my passer ratings last year, Jay Cutler finished 21st out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks. He threw 26 interceptions, and it was looking very much as if the Bears were not going to come close to getting a return for the bounty they invested in Cutler.
Although Kyle Orton’s current form still may suggest that the Broncos got the better end of the swap, Cutler’s numbers have improved to the point where he is fourth in my ratings this season – and has a traditional rating in the 90s.
One problem.
He’s going to get killed (figuratively speaking — we certainly hope).
While I generally prefer to focus on the empirical, I applied the “eyeball test” while watching the Bears game against Seattle, and every play looked like a game of playground football – with Cutler playing the unlucky sap who is constantly running away from the bully who counted five Mississippis too fast.
According to Pro-Football-Reference.com, Cutler is being sacked on 14 percent of his dropbacks (sacks plus pass attempts) – worst in the league. This would represent the highest sack rate in the N.F.L. since Andrew Walter was sacked on 14.3 percent of his dropbacks in 2006.
Nine of Cutler’s sacks this season came in the first half against the Giants – before he had to leave the game (and miss the Carolina game) with a concussion. In that game, Cutler’s all-important yards-per-attempt (Y.P.A.) – after adjusting for the lost sack yardage – was -0.65.
This season, Cutler is No. 2 in unadjusted Y.P.A. (behind Philip Rivers). But once you adjust for sacks, the figure drops from 8.5 Y.P.A. to 6.4 – 11th in the N.F.L.
Should we blame Cutler?
Football Outsiders in 2003 and the Pro-Football-Reference.com blog last year showed that quarterbacks are partly responsible for their sacks — can’t blame it all on the offensive line. These articles actually represent the justification for including lost sack yardage in my ratings.
And, using the aforementioned “eyeball test” does suggest that Cutler is holding the ball too long at times.
However, in 2008, Cutler’s last year in Denver, he was sacked on only 1.8 percent of his attempts – or 11 times (two more than the total in that one half against the Giants) on 616 attempts. Before this season, his average sack rate was 4.8 percent (weighted because he only started five games in his rookie season).
Jumping from a career average of 4.8 percent to 14 percent is a statistical anomaly that puts more of the onus – in this case – on the offensive line.
One final note on Cutler. He has rushed for 81 yards on 15 carries (5.4 yards per carry). I have not watched every minute of every game, but I’m guessing that most of those 15 carries started out as pass plays and ended with Cutler running for his life.
Below are the ratings through Week 2. (Click here to see the best and worst individual performances of the season)
A few notes on this week’s list:
• Philip Rivers tops the list once again – despite a 2-4 start for the Chargers. Rivers has been at the top of this list since Week 15 of 2009.
• The top four players on the list (Rivers, Orton, Romo and Cutler) all lost their games. Michael Vick – who did not play – was fifth on the list, so Tom Brady, at No. 6, was the highest-rated quarterback to lead his team to a victory.
• The biggest positive mover was Kevin Kolb, who jumped 17 spots to No. 11. Kolb threw for 326 yards on only 29 attempts; he was sacked only once while throwing three TD passes and one interception.
• Matt Schaub (up five) and Matt Hasselbeck (up six) also made large positive moves.
• The largest negative mover was Donovan McNabb, who dropped eight spots after throwing two interceptions and having an adjusted Y.P.A. of 4.625 against an Indianapolis defense that – before the game against Washington – gave up an average of 6.5 Y.P.A.
• At the bottom of the list, the biggest disappointments would appear to be Brett Favre (29) and Carson Palmer (25).
• Ryan Fitzpatrick represents the largest disparity between my rankings and the traditional metric. Fitzpatrick has a traditional rating of 99.9 – good for fourth in the league. However, he sits 23rd in the adjusted ratings.
Fitzpatrick’s lower adjusted rating is a result of:
a) An adjusted Y.P.A. of under six.
b) The greater weight given to completion percentage in the traditional metric.
c) The adjusted model takes strength of defense into account, and Fitzpatrick has faced two of the weakest passing defenses (New England and Jacksonville) in the N.F.L.
Passer Rating Through Week 6
Minimum of 70 Attempts
Rank Name Fifth Down Rating Movement From Week 1 Traditional Rating Rank in Traditional Rating
1 P.Rivers 4.9 No Change 100.7 3
2 K.Orton 3.8 Up 1 94.2 9
3 T.Romo 2.6 Up 2 93.6 10
4 J.Cutler 2.6 Down 2 93.2 11
5 M.Vick 2.4 Up 2 108.8 1
6 T.Brady 2.3 Down 2 98.5 6
7 P.Manning 2.2 Down 1 103.4 2
8 M.Schaub 1.8 Up 5 93.0 12
9 D.Brees 1.7 Up 2 97.6 8
10 A.Rodgers 1.5 No Change 89.7 13
11 K.Kolb 1.1 Up 17 98.3 7
12 S.Wallace 0.5 Down 3 88.5 14
13 E.Manning 0.5 Down 1 86.2 16
14 V.Young 0.4 Up 4 98.8 5
15 S.Hill 0.3 No Change 79.6 23
16 D.McNabb 0.2 Down 8 78.8 24
17 C.Henne 0.1 No Change 85.3 17
18 J.Freeman -0.4 Down 4 83.4 21
19 J.Flacco -0.8 No Change 80.2 22
20 M.Ryan -0.9 Up 1 85.3 17
21 M.Cassel -1.1 Up 2 84.5 20
22 M.Sanchez -1.4 Down 6 86.4 15
23 R.Fitzpatrick -1.4 Down 1 99.9 4
24 M.Hasselbeck -1.5 Up 6 74.8 26
25 C.Palmer -1.7 Down 5 78.3 25
26 B.Gradkowski -2.3 Down 1 71.1 29
27 D.Garrard -2.6 Down 1 84.7 19
28 A.Smith -2.6 Down 4 73.9 27
29 B.Favre -3.5 Down 2 72.1 28
30 S.Bradford -4.8 Up 2 69.3 30
31 J.Campbell -5.7 Down 2 61.1 31
32 D.Anderson -5.8 Down 1 59.5 32
33 J.Clausen -6.4 Up 1 52.2 34
34 T.Edwards -8.6 N/A 52.6 33
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