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Thats a huge favorite being -10. The thing that concerns me is that the first meeting Seattle really had a ton of pressure on Cutler, and that was the game the Bears didnt' convert 1 3rd down the entire game. Hasselback also had a big game against them, granted the Bears are alot better team then when they met the first time, but Seattle seems to match up well.
The Bears have a big motivator for this game.
Payback.
and?
Home team gets 3 points, so actually only favored by a TD. Plus, its set high because most people EXPECT the bears to win, combined with the number of Bears fans who may place bets on the game, it is that high to encourage people to bet on the Seahawks to balance the bets, or the Bears really have to put a thumpin on the Seahawks for Bears bets to pay out.
Vegas odds have more to do with betting predictions then it does for game predictions.
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Originally Posted by Jimmors
They have to be as correct as possible. Otherwise the big money will place a last minute bet and wipe all their odds. Small bettors placing their $25 and $50 bets have little impact, its the one's who drop 50K in the final minute which makes the difference. Thats a myth that they don't have to be accurate.
And yes everyone and their kids already knows the 3 point home field rule.
I don't know anything about betting. I just know that any team that faces Seattle is going to be heavily favored due to their regular season record. No one expects a sub 500 team to win in the playoffs. Even though they handed the Saints theirs shorts. The football media is saying Seattle survived that game. I don't think so, Seattle whooped the New Orleans. So of course they will favor the "better" team in points spread. It's the playoffs anything can happen. Like the Jets beating the Colts.
Accurate with what? Predicting the future? Doesnt work that way.Quote:
Originally Posted by JustWinBaby
All the bets are most likely going to the Bears right now, which is why the line is so high...they are trying to get more people to take the Seahawks to beat the spread. $25 and $50 bets are small, but there sure are alot more of those, then there are people dropping 50k on a bet, so in the end, those small bets do make the difference.
This week, Seahawks were 10 point dogs, at home no less. They won their game, so it most likely balanced out with the bets, since so many people took the Saints and the 10 points...and the House made money, which is all they care about. So, they are faced with the same situation this week...most people expect them to lose, so most people are betting on the Bears, combined with Bears fans betting on the Bears, so they put another 10 point spread against the Seahawks, the goal is to even up the bets so no matter who wins, the house makes their money.
Compare that wil SB XLII where they had the patriots as 14 point favorites, and even as bets poured in (many on the giants), they refused to budge, barely dropping the line a single point, to 13...they ignored the betting tendencies and took a BATH and lost a crap ton of money that game.
So yes...betting lines just take into account who the BETTORS think will win, because when they fail to do so, they lose money, which they hate to do.
saints were 10.5 faves for the seattle game.. wouldn'r read too much into it.. bears should be faves, as seattle isnt a good road team and we ar alot better now than then before the bye week, when played them.. and really dount going o'fr on 4rd down again( 44% conversion since bye week) 17% before
It's interesting to note the Seahawks struggle in noon games, which start at 10 a.m. Pacific time. Since 2005, they're 5-15 in non-division road games that begin at noon
betting spreads are like jimmors said a prediction on who people are going to be putting their money on. If allot of people this week start throwing their money on the seahawks the spread will come down. If allot of people, more then is being predicted, bet on the bears you will see the spread get even larger.
Meh........I'm not going to get to psyched just yet. Look at what happened on Saturday.
And the BEARS are notorious for losing games that they are favored to win. ESPECIALLY at home.
Personally.....I'd feel a lot better if they were playing elsewhere. LOL! :-)
If we get through this Sunday....I'll feel great about Atlanta! :-)
GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO BEARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :-)
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