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Mixed results from Angelo's trading-down stra
Mixed results from Angelo's trading-down strategy
By Brad Biggs Tribune reporter 10:35 a.m. CDT, April 20, 2011
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The Chicago Bears will hold a pre-draft news conference Thursday and they will do their best to match the smokescreens being created by other clubs.
It’s an annual affair as teams work to spread as much misinformation as possible in an effort to mask their true intentions. General manager Jerry Angelo, sometimes honest to a fault, will speak largely in general terms and at some point he surely will be asked about the possibility of trading down from the 29th overall pick in the draft.
The Tribune’s Dan Pompei has detailed the reasons why this is a likely scenario, and certainly Angelo’s history is proof that he’s frequently looking for a deal to add more picks. In nine drafts, he has traded down with his top selection three times. Angelo actually traded the team’s top selection twice in 2003, and if he could have found a trade partner in 2005 he would have gladly parted with it to avoid selecting running back Cedric Benson No. 4 overall. The desire to move out of the pick wasn’t related to Benson but rather the exorbitant contract that came with the slot. There were no takers.
What could the Bears command in return for trading out of the 29th slot when the draft starts April 28? First, it depends on how low Angelo is willing to go into the second round. In 2006, the Bears traded the 26th overall pick to the Buffalo Bills. In exchange, they received two picks, No. 42 (10th pick of second round) and No. 73 (ninth pick of third round). Those selections turned into safety Danieal Manning and defensive tackle Dusty Dvoracek. In the first nine picks after No. 26, running back DeAngelo Williams, tight end Marcedes Lewis, center Nick Mangold, running back Joseph Addai, defensive end Mathias Kiwanuka and linebackers DeMeco Ryans and Rocky McIntosh were selected. All but Kiwanuka and McIntosh have been to the Pro Bowl.
The process is pretty simple, and picks at the bottom of the first round are often coveted. Between now and the draft, teams looking to move down will first identify how far into the second round they are willing to go. In the Bears’ case in 2006, they traded down 16 slots. Then, they call the teams in between where they are and where they’re willing to go and they have a very simple conversation.
“If the guy we’re looking for isn’t there when we pick, we may be looking to trade down.”
The Bears have such a history for trading down that they likely will field calls from teams interested in moving up. Then, it’s a matter of putting together a potential deal and evaluating the “package” you could receive. That’s where mock drafting comes into play. You need to know roughly where players are going to fall in the draft. Then, Angelo can look at an offer and determine, like he did in 2006, if he is better with the player he can take at No. 26 or the package of players he can get with the picks at No. 42 and No. 73.
There should be competition. Seattle general manager John Schneider has publicly said he wants to trade down from No. 26. Many expect the New England Patriots to trade down from No. 28, the pick before the Bears.
Let’s analyze the times Angelo has traded down with the team’s top pick and how it worked:
2003
Original pick: No. 4
Trade 1: No. 4 to New York Jets for No. 13 and No. 22
Trade 2: No. 13 to New England Patriots for No. 14 and No. 193
Trade 3: No. 176, No. 193, No. 218 to Jacksonville Jaguars for No. 143
The skinny: The Bears needed a quarterback and were near the top of the draft a year too early for the Eli Manning/Philip Rivers sweepstakes. They identified Rex Grossman as a player they could get at No. 22 and locked into Penn State defensive tackle Jimmy Kennedy as the player they wanted at No. 13. When the St. Louis Rams drafted him with the 12th overall pick, the Bears were stunned. To give them more time to regroup, they traded down again, this time one slot with the Patriots, who used the selection on Texas A&M defensive end Ty Warren. The Bears settled on Kennedy’s teammate Michael Haynes at No. 14, one of the worst selections of the Angelo era. The extra pick from the Patriots for moving down one slot in the first round –- a sixth-round pick (193rd overall) –- was packaged with two other picks as the Bears traded up into the fifth round to No. 143 to select Missouri wide receiver Justin Gage. It’s the only trade up in the draft Angelo has made with the Bears.
Hindsight is 20/20: The team truly needed a quarterback and didn’t want to draft Byron Leftwich with the fourth pick. While Grossman was a target for many fans, he did quarterback one of the franchise’s two Super Bowl teams. Haynes didn’t stick around long enough to be on the Super Bowl XLI team. Had Angelo been more productive with the pick at No. 14, this wouldn’t look bad. Pittsburgh Steelers safety Troy Polamalu was chosen two picks after Haynes. But you can play the what-if game with every pick in the draft.
2006
Original pick: No. 26
Trade: No. 26 to Buffalo Bills for No. 42 and No. 73
The skinny: The Bears didn’t get a lot out of this deal, but the Bills got even less, blowing the selection on North Carolina State defensive tackle John McCargo. By moving down 16 slots the Bears didn’t feel like they were reaching for Danieal Manning out of Division II Abilene Christian. He has been a durable performer for them and started all 16 games last season at safety. The constant shuffling of his position earlier in his career didn’t help him. Dusty Dvoracek never panned out. He couldn’t stay healthy and should not have been playing ahead of Anthony Adams when he did.
Hindsight is 20/20: The Bears needed a tight end in this draft and could have gotten a very good one at No. 73. Wisconsin’s Owen Daniels, who the Bears knew well, was available. They went with a defensive lineman -– a position the Bears seemingly overdraft –- and Daniels lasted until No. 98 when he was the first pick of the fourth round by the Houston Texans. Of course, had the Bears chosen Daniels they likely would not have selected Greg Olsen in the first round the following year.
2009
Original pick: No. 49
Trade: No. 49 to Seattle Seahawks for No. 68 and No. 105
The skinny: Missing first- and third-round picks after the trade with the Denver Broncos for quarterback Jay Cutler, Angelo made a play to add some depth to the draft. That meant dropping down 19 slots to No. 68, the fourth pick of the third round. Angelo was set on drafting Alex Magee, the defensive tackle from Purdue. That is who the Bears believed they would get until the Kansas City Chiefs surprised them by selecting Magee one pick earlier at No. 67. Jarron Gilbert was the next player on their board and he didn’t last a year, getting cut before the season opener this past year. At No. 105, the Bears selected Henry Melton from Texas, and the hope is the former fullback will flourish with an expanded opportunity to be a three technique tackle in place of Tommie Harris this season. The Seahawks drafted Oregon offensive lineman Max Unger at No. 49.
Hindsight is 20/20: One of the reasons the Bears have had such issues on the line is because Angelo hasn’t committed high draft picks to the position. Unger, Patriots tackle Sebastian Vollmer and Vikings tackle Phil Loadholt were available. The Bears also passed on wide receiver Mohamed Massaquoi, and the best pick of the second half of Round 2 might have been Eagles running back LeSean McCoy.
It’s a tricky business and no one is going to hit on every pick. While the picks the Bears have traded away haven’t necessarily resulted into gold, they haven’t maximized what they have received in return.
bmbiggs@tribune.com
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Jerry Angelo’s drafts have busts, but still solid season after season
BY SEAN JENSEN sjensen@suntimes.com .hideTime { display:none; }Apr 21, 2011 02:14AM
He is an easy target, too polite and too proud to defend his oft-criticized draft record.
Jerry Angelo, who will preside over his 10th NFL draft as Bears general manager next Thursday, can’t escape the ghosts of busts past such as Cedric Benson (fourth overall), Michael Haynes (14th) and Dan Bazuin (62nd).
But as NFL history repeatedly shows, scouting players is an inexact science, one that can’t be hedged by a battery of mental, physical and psychological tests.
“Just when you think you know everything, the game comes back and bites you in the fanny and lets you know that you don’t know everything,” former Green Bay Packers general manager Ron Wolf told the Sun-Times in January. “That’s a magnificent part of the game. There are all these supposed geniuses, and when you think you’re one, something lets you know that you’re not one.”
Ozzie Newsome of the Baltimore Ravens, Bill Polian of the Indianapolis Colts, Andy Reid of the Philadelphia Eagles and Ted Thompson, Wolf’s replacement in Green Bay, are among the general managers with Midas-touch reputations. Yet they, too, have regrettable picks, such as quarterback Kyle Boller (19th overall, 2003), defensive end Jerome McDougle (15th, 2003), offensive tackle Tony Ugoh (42nd, 2007) and Justin Harrell (16th, 2007).
Unlike figure skaters, NFL personnel executives don’t get style points, so how they pieced together their roster doesn’t matter as long as they consistently field a winner. The preference, of course, is to build through the draft, and Angelo’s track record is on par with the aforementioned men, who have all led their respective teams to a Super Bowl appearance.
Since taking over the Bears after the disastrous 2001 NFL draft, Angelo’s picks have earned roster spots and contributed to successful teams. Among the 12 playoff teams from the 2010 season, the Bears are seventh with 24 drafted players on their roster, four behind the league-leading Packers and Ravens.
And while defensive tackle Tommie Harris is the Bears’ only first-round pick to make a Pro Bowl roster since 2002, the club has distinguished itself by scoring in later rounds with stars such as Devin Hester (second round), Lance Briggs (third) and Johnny Knox (fifth).
With ever-changing rosters, successful clubs are fortunate to hit on half of all draft picks. But the Bears have avoided the draft shutout, when a class doesn’t stand the test of time. At least one player from each of the club’s last eight drafts is still on the roster.
By contrast, the Detroit Lions have no draft picks from 2002 to 2005 on the current roster. Busts during that stretch include quarterback Joey Harrington (third overall, 2002), receiver Charles Rogers (second, 2003), receiver Mike Williams (seventh, 2004) and receiver Mike Williams (10th, 2005).
So while many will focus on what Angelo does in this draft, it would seem more appropriate to inspect what the Bears will get this season from their 2008, 2009 and 2010 draft classes.
Will Chris Williams, the 14th overall pick in 2008, serve as a competent starter at tackle or guard? Will Matt Forte, a second-round pick from 2008, establish himself among the league’s elite running backs? Will defensive tackle Henry Melton, a 2009 fourth round pick, become the latest late-round gem? And can the team’s top two picks from 2010, safety Major Wright and defensive end Corey Wootton, make meaningful contributions in their sophomore campaigns?
At the NFL owners meeting, Angelo was asked if he would feel any additional pressure since the Bears have a first-round pick for the first time since 2008.
“They can’t beat up on the first round picks for the last couple of years, because of the obvious reason,” Angelo jokingly said. “But, we feel real good. Our formula to draft well is very, very sound. I’m very comfortable with our philosophy and how we look at the draft.”
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god I love being right. I've been saying this for years.... and getting beat down without mercy for it. Can I say I told you so now?... is it ok?... can I rub it in and gloat?... cause that would be super sweet. 
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High Fives / Like - 1 BEAR DOWN!, 0 Dislikes
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Originally Posted by
GrizzlyBear91 
god I love being right. I've been saying this for years.... and getting beat down without mercy for it. Can I say I told you so now?... is it ok?... can I rub it in and gloat?... cause that would be super sweet.
rub what in?
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Originally Posted by
GrizzlyBear91 god I love being right. I've been saying this for years.... and getting beat down without mercy for it. Can I say I told you so now?... is it ok?... can I rub it in and gloat?... cause that would be super sweet.
rub what in?
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don't worry about it... it was more for kicks and giggles and explaining things just takes the fun right out of it.
I've been a huge Angelo supporter, where everyone has complained cried and whined about how BAD he is... just giving it back a little while trying to convey a little humor.
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High Fives / Like - 1 BEAR DOWN!, 0 Dislikes
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don't worry about it... it was more for kicks and giggles and explaining things just takes the fun right out of it.
I've been a huge Angelo supporter, where everyone has complained cried and whined about how BAD he is... just giving it back a little while trying to convey a little humor.
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2006
Original pick: No. 26
Trade: No. 26 to Buffalo Bills for No. 42 and No. 73
The skinny: The Bears didn’t get a lot out of this deal, but the Bills got even less, blowing the selection on North Carolina State defensive tackle John McCargo. By moving down 16 slots the Bears didn’t feel like they were reaching for Danieal Manning out of Division II Abilene Christian. He has been a durable performer for them and started all 16 games last season at safety. The constant shuffling of his position earlier in his career didn’t help him. Dusty Dvoracek never panned out. He couldn’t stay healthy and should not have been playing ahead of Anthony Adams when he did.
Hindsight is 20/20: The Bears needed a tight end in this draft and could have gotten a very good one at No. 73. Wisconsin’s Owen Daniels, who the Bears knew well, was available. They went with a defensive lineman -– a position the Bears seemingly overdraft –- and Daniels lasted until No. 98 when he was the first pick of the fourth round by the Houston Texans. Of course, had the Bears chosen Daniels they likely would not have selected Greg Olsen in the first round the following year.
If we did trade down this year it will likely look like this trade from 2006.
I do not know how I feel about Angelo trading down, because we really do not know how many players that Angelo misses out on. Was Angelo targetting Jarron Gilbert or after trading down did he miss on Michael Johnson?
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Originally Posted by
GrizzlyBear91 god I love being right. I've been saying this for years.... and getting beat down without mercy for it. Can I say I told you so now?... is it ok?... can I rub it in and gloat?... cause that would be super sweet.
Right about what? lol
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High Fives / Like - 1 BEAR DOWN!, 0 Dislikes
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Originally Posted by
WindyCity 2006
Original pick: No. 26
Trade: No. 26 to Buffalo Bills for No. 42 and No. 73
The skinny: The Bears didn’t get a lot out of this deal, but the Bills got even less, blowing the selection on North Carolina State defensive tackle John McCargo. By moving down 16 slots the Bears didn’t feel like they were reaching for Danieal Manning out of Division II Abilene Christian. He has been a durable performer for them and started all 16 games last season at safety. The constant shuffling of his position earlier in his career didn’t help him. Dusty Dvoracek never panned out. He couldn’t stay healthy and should not have been playing ahead of Anthony Adams when he did.
Hindsight is 20/20: The Bears needed a tight end in this draft and could have gotten a very good one at No. 73. Wisconsin’s Owen Daniels, who the Bears knew well, was available. They went with a defensive lineman -– a position the Bears seemingly overdraft –- and Daniels lasted until No. 98 when he was the first pick of the fourth round by the Houston Texans. Of course, had the Bears chosen Daniels they likely would not have selected Greg Olsen in the first round the following year.
If we did trade down this year it will likely look like this trade from 2006.
I do not know how I feel about Angelo trading down, because we really do not know how many players that Angelo misses out on. Was Angelo targetting Jarron Gilbert or after trading down did he miss on Michael Johnson?
And that is always he 'risk" in trading down.. let's say doing it because 'think" a player will be there( ie in 2003 trading down because expect jimmy kennedy there or like that year targeting Mcgeee, and having KC take him right before us to have to settle for pool jumper.. or 2005 when targeted roddy white and instead, atlanta grabbed him and settled for mark bradley.. No matter how much you "think" others will be there, they may not, and rally can blow up a trade down as we have seen
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