Thread: Lessons learned from Cutler's first 5 years

here's another intersting stat for cutler, lead league in 3rd down conversion:

Higher Education: The Best and Worst Third-Down Backs

I’m starting a new series over at Yahoo in which I use FO stats to try and make some salient points about specific performance value, and I wanted to begin with some of the indicators of “clutchiness.” The first two posts detail the best and worst third-down backs in 2010 (minimum 15 third-down carries) based on DVOA and Success Rate. There are a few surprises on both lists; certainly the top guy on the best list would evade a few guessers. The article about the 10 best backs is linked in the title; the article on the 10 worst can be found here.

After finding LeSean McCoy so high in the ‘10 best’ piece, I wondered how Michael Vick and other quarterbacks fared as third-down rushers, and asked Aaron for a list of DVOA and Success Rate for all 2010 quarterbacks with at least 10 carries. Of course, running on third down is usually a different challenge for a quarterback; unless it’s a short-yardage sneak, the likelihood is that such plays are based on breakdowns in passing plays and performed against defenders looking to close in after defending potential pass plays as opposed to pinning their ears back against a prospective run play.

So, of course, it would make perfect sense that the most effective third-down rushing quarterback, based on DVOA, would be … Jay Cutler?

Kind a shocker considering Matt Forte’s status as the worst third-down runningback, but of course Cutler was doing his thing behind that same horrid line and had to make some breakaway plays. And he was very effective in doing so. On his 12 third-down runs (11 of which were listed in our game-charting as “scrambles” and not intentional runs), Cutler converted eight, including instances of third-and-9, third-and-15, and third-and-16.

Here are the best five rushing quarterbacks on third down (minimum 10 carries), followed by the five worst.
THE BEST
Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – 72.0% DVOA, 12 carries, 121 yards, 75 % Success Rate
Tim Tebow, Denver Broncos – 55.9% DVOA, 10 carries, 104 yards, 40% Success Rate
Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins – 44.9% DVOA, 10 carries, 90 yards, 70% Success Rate
Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles – 34.5% DVOA, 29 carries, 249 yards, 52% Success Rate
Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 33.3% DVOA, 27 carries, 178 yards, 78% Success Rate

THE WORST
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills – minus-53.6% DVOA, 14 carries, 69 yards, 29% Success Rate
Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens – minus-37.7% DVOA, 12 carries, 40 yards, 50% Success Rate
Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals – minus-36.8% DVOA, 11 carries, 32 yards, 64% Success Rate
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – minus-19.1% DVOA, 17 carries, 115 yards, 41% Success Rate
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – minus-3.9% DVOA, 11 carries, 37 yards, 64% Success Rate

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ext...ird-down-backs

nice to see saint rodger's at the bottom of a ranking, but this goes with his 6-23 record in games decided by 4 points or less...

Originally Posted by dabears54

i'd love to play the ravens in a Sb and have url just have a great game and put that away for ever..: )

Where do they get off saying that Lewis is a better MLB than Urlacher? Is it because Lewis won a Super Bowl and Urlacher hasn't won one yet?

Originally Posted by dabears54

here's another intersting stat for cutler, lead league in 3rd down conversion:

Higher Education: The Best and Worst Third-Down Backs

I’m starting a new series over at Yahoo in which I use FO stats to try and make some salient points about specific performance value, and I wanted to begin with some of the indicators of “clutchiness.” The first two posts detail the best and worst third-down backs in 2010 (minimum 15 third-down carries) based on DVOA and Success Rate. There are a few surprises on both lists; certainly the top guy on the best list would evade a few guessers. The article about the 10 best backs is linked in the title; the article on the 10 worst can be found here.

After finding LeSean McCoy so high in the ‘10 best’ piece, I wondered how Michael Vick and other quarterbacks fared as third-down rushers, and asked Aaron for a list of DVOA and Success Rate for all 2010 quarterbacks with at least 10 carries. Of course, running on third down is usually a different challenge for a quarterback; unless it’s a short-yardage sneak, the likelihood is that such plays are based on breakdowns in passing plays and performed against defenders looking to close in after defending potential pass plays as opposed to pinning their ears back against a prospective run play.

So, of course, it would make perfect sense that the most effective third-down rushing quarterback, based on DVOA, would be … Jay Cutler?

Kind a shocker considering Matt Forte’s status as the worst third-down runningback, but of course Cutler was doing his thing behind that same horrid line and had to make some breakaway plays. And he was very effective in doing so. On his 12 third-down runs (11 of which were listed in our game-charting as “scrambles” and not intentional runs), Cutler converted eight, including instances of third-and-9, third-and-15, and third-and-16.

Here are the best five rushing quarterbacks on third down (minimum 10 carries), followed by the five worst.
THE BEST
[B]Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears – 72.0% DVOA, 12 carries, 121 yards, 75 % Success Rate[/B]
Tim Tebow, Denver Broncos – 55.9% DVOA, 10 carries, 104 yards, 40% Success Rate
Donovan McNabb, Washington Redskins – 44.9% DVOA, 10 carries, 90 yards, 70% Success Rate
Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles – 34.5% DVOA, 29 carries, 249 yards, 52% Success Rate
Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 33.3% DVOA, 27 carries, 178 yards, 78% Success Rate

THE WORST
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills – minus-53.6% DVOA, 14 carries, 69 yards, 29% Success Rate
Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens – minus-37.7% DVOA, 12 carries, 40 yards, 50% Success Rate
Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals – minus-36.8% DVOA, 11 carries, 32 yards, 64% Success Rate
[B]Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers – minus-19.1% DVOA, 17 carries, 115 yards, 41% Success Rate[/B]
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – minus-3.9% DVOA, 11 carries, 37 yards, 64% Success Rate

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ext...ird-down-backs

nice to see saint rodger's at the bottom of a ranking, but this goes with his 6-23 record in games decided by 4 points or less...

What's even nicer than seeing Rodger the Artful Dodger down at the bottom of this list is that Cutler is at the very top of the list. Finally, there's something that our quarterback does better than the Packers' quarterback!

Originally Posted by dabears54

urlacher blows lewis away in Sacks( lewis played 4 more seasons),, close in INT and if add in Passes defended urlacher will also stand out above as a more all around LB... lewis the better run stopper, but urlacher IMo the better all around MLB( run + pass coverage+ pas rusher)

In my estimation, Urlacher isn't asked to cover the run as much as many MLB. You h ave guys like Patrick Willis and Ray-Ray who are so focused on the run, but Urlacher is asked to shadow the quarterback, to shadow wide receivers, etc.