Thread: Is Matt Forte Equal to Adrian Peterson?......

Analyst: Bears' Forte stacks up evenly with Vikings' Peterson


Matt Forte's versatility makes him an elite NFL running back. (Getty Images)

By Brad Biggs Tribune reporter 1:53 p.m. CDT, July 20, 2011


Analyst K.C. Joyner caught the attention of Chicago Bears fans in 2009 after he examined Jay Cutler's knack for risk-taking and compared him to Rex Grossman.

Cutler went on to throw 26 interceptions that season, the second-most in franchise history.

Joyner, who has a website called The Football Scientist, has compiled an analysis of running backs that Bears fans won’t have any problems with: Joyner's research showed that Matt Forte was as productive and valuable last season as the Minnesota Vikings' Adrian Peterson, considered by many to be the NFL's best running back.

“His jack-of-all-trades skill set has led to the idea that he isn't an elite running back (he has no Pro Bowl or All-Pro nominations in his career), but a closer look at the numbers shows that he can actually go toe-to-toe with Adrian Peterson for the title of best running back in the NFC North,” Joyner wrote for ESPN.com.

An accomplished receiver, Forte has piled up lots of yards from scrimmage during his first three seasons. His 4,731 scrimmage yards is fifth in the league over that period behind Chris Johnson, Peterson (5,343), Maurice Jones-Drew and Steven Jackson.

Joyner uses a yards per attempt measuring stick, and he includes rushes and receptions as touches. Peterson is at 4.8 YPT while Forte is just behind him at 4.6. Consider notorious fumbling issues Peterson has had -- he has lost 11 in the last three seasons vs. six by Forte -- and the equation begins to balance out. Per Joyner, most people value a turnover between 40 and 50 yards.

Forte’s yards per target last season was 5.3 ahead of the 4.9 Peterson had. Per Joyner, Forte is also a more accomplished pass blocker than Peterson, something that must be considered.

What does it all mean? Well, Forte should be well-armed for contract discussions with the Bears when the new league year begins. The Bears have an immense amount of work to do to prepare for the season, but eventually they need to determine what they will do with Forte, who is entering the final year of his rookie contract.

Few would select Forte over Peterson if given the choice, but Forte doesn’t have any apparent weaknesses and has been a workhorse for the Bears, not missing a game in his first three seasons.

Joyner makes a compelling case for Forte being considered among the elite backs in the NFL. The Bears discussed a potential contract extension for Forte before the lockout began. The issue will be raised again soon. What do you bet Forte’s side presents this information to the Bears?

bmbiggs@tribune.com

Twitter @BradBiggs

Copyright © 2011, Chicago Tribune

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