Thread: Matt Forte’s numbers are impressive, but will Bears pay up?

Originally Posted by Butka

I'll just say that if we exit this season with this much cap space instead of front loading some contracts and setting us up nicely for the future, it will solidify the notion that the McCaskey's are cheap.

They can't be cheap since there will be a cap floor next season.

If they can't agree on an extension you have to figure that they'll franchise him. No one would give us what he's worth in trade anyway so I don't see much choice other than that. I think the article mentions getting a 2nd round pick for him. That made me laugh. Would any of you give up Forte for only a second rounder? I sure as hell wouldn't.

Originally Posted by Boochee Man

They can't be cheap since there will be a cap floor next season.

I understand that about next season, but I'm talking about this season.

If they remain this far below the cap in a moment when their is no floor (this season), then to me, it means they are cheap and grabbing at any money they can. The logical move would be to front load contracts for Forte and anyone else in their plans... or even restructure contracts that will be heavy on the cap in future seasons. It will be a great opportunity to clear future cap space and go after a decent WR (or whatever they want). It only makes sense, even for the dumbest of GMs, and the only reason not to eat up the cap space is because the ownership wants more money this year. So if it happens that we leave all of that cap space lingering, it tells me we're being cheap.

Here's what Dan Pompei has to say about it.


Is Forte the best bargain in NFL?
But keeping him unsigned also keeps him motivated
Dan Pompei On the NFL 6:00 p.m. CDT, October 6, 2011


Signing Matt Forte has proven more difficult than tackling him. Forte's value has been as a moving target, shifting left, cutting right and then spinning away. That's why, with five months remaining until his contract expires, he remains unsigned and there has been no recent movement.

If the Bears judged Forte solely on what he was before this season, they probably would have considered him a good running back, but not an "elite" back.

He came into this year averaging 3.9 yards per carry. Of active backs, 54 had a better number. Six backs had more rushing yards between 2008 and 2010.

But Forte's value to his team isn't just as a taker of handoffs. His 4,731 scrimmage yards were fifth most in the NFL among running backs in his first three years.

He also accounted for 33 percent of his team's offense over that period. Only one player — Chris Johnson of the Titans — accounted for a greater percentage.

This is attributable to a number of factors. Talent, obviously. Durability. Versatility. Offensive design. And, to a degree, the paucity of productive teammates.

But the point is Forte was pretty valuable to the Bears for the first three years of his career. And he has become more so this season.

Forte is just getting to the sweet spot of his career as it is common for running backs to begin to peak in their third and fourth seasons.

In the offseason before 2010, Forte figured out how to maximize his speed with specialized training. This July, he came to camp looking as muscled up as one of those Under Armor dummies. And he has found the perfect offensive system for his abilities.

This year, Forte leads the NFL in scrimmage yards from a running back with 158.5 yards per game. If he can do that for 16 games, he will have the third most productive season for a running back in history, behind only Priest Holmes (163.4 in 2002) and O.J. Simpson (160.2 in 1975).

That could make him the best bargain in football with a 2011 salary of $555,000.

You don't want to overreact to four games of evidence, but Forte compares pretty well to other active backs. After the Vikings' Adrian Peterson and Titans' Chris Johnson, you can make a case Forte is as valued a commodity as any of them.

I would put him on that next tier along with the Ravens' Ray Rice and Jaguars' Maurice Jones-Drew.

He has been more durable than rushing leader Darren McFadden. He has less wear and tear on him than Steven Jackson and Frank Gore. He is healthier than Jamaal Charles.

He is more versatile than Michael Turner. He is stabler than Cedric Benson. He has a bigger body of work than Peyton Hillis and Arian Foster. He has been productive more consistently than DeAngelo Williams. He's better between the tackles than LeSean McCoy.

Where does that place him on the pay scale? Below Peterson and Johnson, whose new deals average $14.2 million and $13.5 million per year annually. He's probably somewhere in the vicinity of Jackson, Williams and Jones Drew.

The new contracts of Jackson and Williams average $8.6 million. Jones Drew's new deal averages $7.6 million.

The truth is Forte was an average runner his first two NFL seasons. He was a significantly better back last year, and he's better still this year. The average per carry for his first 574 runs (pre-2010) was 3.8.

Over his last nine games, going back to last December, he has averaged 5.0 yards per carry, 85 rushing yards per game and 149 total yards per game.

It probably isn't realistic to think Forte can continue to improve as he has, but his arrow is pointing up. He is 25. Assuming most running backs start to wear down around 29, he should have four strong seasons left before he needs to be reevaluated.

Forte should be paid not for what he might develop into, or for what he has been, but for what he is now.

It's really not a bad thing to have Forte unsigned. The Bears always can hit him with a franchise tag if they need to, though that is not the optimum solution.

But having him unsigned keeps a giant carrot over his helmet, and it also continues to bring clarity to what he truly is worth.

dpompei@tribune.com

Twitter@danpompei

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I think Dan Pompei has a good handle on the situation and classifying Matt Forte with that 2nd tier of backs is about right. I still think it's the guaranteed that are the stumbling block and somewhere along the line somebody has to budge. As Pompei points out Forte's abilities are beginning to peak. Most men hit their physical peak around age 27 or 28 so if we sign him to a four or five year deal we get him through some of his best years.

I don't think there's any question that the Bears will franchise him if they can't agee on a new deal. That isn't in Forte's favor at all and it many come down to that before both side come to angreement. All we know for now is that it's not likely any agreement will be reached before seasons end.

I tend to agree with Butka - this is one cheap franchise. People on this forum for the past few months have gotten fighting mad at me anytime I ever suggested that the Bears are cheap. We saw it with Greg Olsen, who by the end of last year had unquestionably become our most consistent and dependable receiver based on size and speed, and now we're seeing it with Matt Forte. Georgie Boy better come back from his honeymoon as the new CEO of the Bears and do something before Jerry Angelo permanently destroys this franchise and reverts it back to the days of Dave Wannestedt.

I can't honestly say I'd take Chris Johnson or AP over him. I think they're just 'names' in contrast to Forte (meaning, they DO deserve the respect they get, but their hype is too big when comparing to the worth of Forte, not their hype in general)

Originally Posted by motownbear

I would take ap and cj over him they are an explosive play waiting to happen. But the uniqueness of forte is you don't need a third down back. He is an every down player and that is what makes him special. He is good at everything instead of amazing at one thing

If there's anything that makes him elite it's this. Backs like CJ and AP can turn a game around with one play but this past week Forte did exactly the same thing. Take away that last big run and Barber's TD which followed and we might have lost the game. I don't know the exact number of his runs over 20 yards and over 40 yards but there have been quite a few. Actually he's more efficient at breaking a long gain off a pass or run than he is gaining 4-5 yards consistently on almost every carry. If he lacks anything it's the breakaway speed and the outright elusiveness of some of the other runners. He's a perfect back for the Bears because of the variety of ways he can hurt you.

Dags I wouldn't call the Bears cheap but it seems to me that after those awful signings last year Angelo is taking a different stance this year. Whether or not that's coming down from Phillips or George McCaskey we don't know but if I was the Bears President I would certainly have had some words for him over those signings. They weren't costly capwise because there was no cap but they were costly in $$$.

I think this current frugality cost us in the attempt to attract good Olineman and WR's in FA, it cost us Olin Kruetz, and it's holding up Forte's extension. The Bears have him over as barrel more than he has them over one. A holdout would cost him both in $$$ and in reputation so that's not an option. Recent signings have skyrocketed the prices of RB's and my guess is that Angelo is waiting for the dust to settle from that before continuing negotiations. The other factor that's in the Bears favor is the ability to franchise him next year if a deal can't be reached so in effect the Bears get two seasons out of him for less money than they've been reported to have offered as a guarantee.

This is the prime time for Forte to get his extension and both he and his agent know it. If he signs for 4 or five more years he'll be 29 or 30 when it's over and his window for the big deal will have passed. This is his shot and he wants to make it the best he can get. Even the offers he may get two years from now might not be as lucrative as one he can get now. He's coming into his prime as a RB and he wants to take advantage of it but there's no way he can expect a deal like DWill, CJ or AP got. Whether he's worth that much or not isn't the question. He simply doesn't have the bargaining power to get it and JA is using that to his advantage.