The path to 11 wins: Not nearly as hard as some make it out to be
The Bears (in my humble opinion) not only have a shot at 11 wins, but actually have a realistic shot at 12 wins. But I'm a more optimistic fan than some of you here and I tend to measure our strengths more than our weaknesses. I'm going to assume that we'll continue to emphasize protecting Cutler and that we're actually healthy (Carimi, Bennett and Wooten are all back).
In two weeks we play the Eagles in Philly. Yes, their offense CAN be scary but their defense AND special teams are ass. With Forte tearing up every team he faces, Roy Williams getting more comfortable with Jay (I know, I can't believe it either) and our special teams, I expect an entertaining victory for the Bears on MNF. 5 wins.
Detroit. The Bears simply will not get swept by this team. They'll remember that the defense giving up two ridiculous big plays to them last time led to our loss. They will not let that happen again. The Lions were paper tigers to begin with by being more lucky than good in their first 3 wins. But again, the Bears are protecting Cutler, Forte's a beast and the passing game is improving. If the Bears can just stop 88 yard runs at home, this is win #6.
Then the next 4 are AFC West teams. The Bears, in my lifetime, have traditionally owned the AFC West. We may have lost a game here and there (a loss to San Diego a few years ago comes to mind) but the Bears are better than each of these teams. And I don't think it's even close. SD's offense can be scary, true, but I just don't see them doing the aerial bombardment thing on the Bears without us getting some picks and sack. I say the Bears sweep all 4 of the AFC West teams with blowouts on Denver and Oakland (and maybe KC). 9 or 10 wins (I'm gonna give a 'maybe' to a loss to SD though I don't really see it)
Seattle. At home. Blowout. Win #10 or 11
Last game of the season is the Vikings at home. Since this game may affect us getting into the playoffs and/or seeding, this will be another stomping of Ponder and Co at Soldier field. Win #11 or 12
That last Green Bay game before the Vikings will be tough regardless since it's in Green Bay. It'll depend on how set they are in seeding in the playoffs. I think they psychologically have an advantage because they just don't believe the Bears can be them, and they won't. Not in this game. The Bears will beat them in the NFC Championship game in some sweet revenge-type shit.
So that's my prediction. Bears will be either 12-4 or 11-5 and make the playoffs. Beat the Pack in the NFC title game and advance to the Super Bowl to play....who knows?
I think those are reasonable assumptions. Are they likely? Well, maybe so and maybe not. The Bears have the best running back in the NFL in Matt Forte, a talented quarterback in Jay Cutler, and a defense that is finally waking up. Will they make the playoffs? They are in position as of right now to make a serious run. I see the Bears losing at least two more games along the way (San Diego and probably Green Bay). We will get in as a Wild Card team and probably win our first game, but then get bludgeoned in the Divisional Round. I'm a serious fan, but I don't think I'm quite the homer that you are.
For that to happen there would have to be more improvement than there has been showing as well as a few surprises. There are some weaker teams on the schedule so yes 11 wins is possible but beating the elite teams? I don't think it will happen.
Arguing on the internet is like winning the special olympics, even if you win your still messed up.
Restore the roar!
Who are the elite teams left on the schedule?
Originally Posted by short faced bear
And Dagan, this fear of being called a "homer" (I call it Marriotti Syndrome) is probably at the core of why so many on this forum are so pessimistic. It almost forces a person to only expect the worst because seeing anything positive will mark you as a "homer" by....people you don't know on a forum board.
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|8 ||BYE WEEK |
|9 ||Mon, Nov 7 || ||8:30 PM ||See this as a Loss, not that we cannot win, but Philly on the road and a team w/a must win every game attitude; they're a lot better then they've played, and we've played over our heads. |
|10 ||Sun, Nov 13 || ||1:00 PM FOX ||This is a coin flip game; we can win or lose this won and I wouldn't be at all suprised if it was a 1 point victory or a 20 point blow out. Depends on how healthy Best and Matthews are; and how healthy we are. I'll count this as a win. |
|11 ||Sun, Nov 20 || ||4:15 PM CBS ||This is a team, much like us, that hasn't beaten a playoff team; actually they haven't beaten a team w/a .500 record. That being said, we cannot stop their TE or WR there is no one on this team that can cover either of them. This is a Loss when you add in their running game. |
|12 ||Sun, Nov 27 || ||4:05 PM FOX ||This is a coinflip game; if McFadden is playing and Palmer has reaclimated himself, we will not win; if neither is the case it's a blowout victory for us. I'll call it a win. |
|13 ||Sun, Dec 4 || ||1:00 PM CBS ||Much like us, bit of a slow start, and they are starting to play better. Excuse me if I'm not scared. Win. |
|14 ||Sun, Dec 11 || ||4:05 PM FOX ||Win. Man they suck. More proof that I believe the NE Pats pay their ex cordianators to sabitoge up and coming AFC teams and set them back to the stone ages. |
|15 ||Sun, Dec 18 || ||1:00 PM FOX ||Win. See above minus the NE part. |
|16 ||Sun, Dec 25 || ||8:20 PM NBC ||Loss; big loss; unless they are plagued w/more key injuries then last year. |
|17 ||Sun, Jan 1 || ||1:00 PM FOX ||Win. Horrible O elite D. Elite D's get worn down by their own horrible O. |
I see 6 wins w/a couple coin flips to make it maybe. Could we beat SD and Philly to make it 8 yes; could we lose to Oak or KC or Minny to make it 5 also, yes. 10-6 is still a damn fine record; but unless you can pull out wins against SD and GB and Det then you're not playoff caliber set to make a deep run in the playoffs.
I'm not going to mock my co worker who is a SD fan for having a great record on a weak schedule(haven't beaten a team w/a .500 record yet); then celebrate the Bears great record on a poor schedule. Unless they beat the teams w/good records in the process which they have failed to do but 1x this year....and they were on their 3rd string C and RB; and missing a starting LB and Safety for part of the game(which is one of the reasons why Martz started passing more).
Hey Guys, First time poster here. I love the site.
Looking at our remaining games last night I have it at this:
@ Philadelphia on MNF is most likely going to be a loss. We have always played well against Vick and have been able to contain him, but I think they will zero in on Forte and make Cutler try to beat us.
vs. Detroit Stafford is already showing how he is getting banged up, Bears will win this one at home
vs. San Diego I always see this as a win. We have a better running game and a better quarterback than the Jets who were just able to get it done against the pass heavy Chargers. Tolbert has been making some noise lately but we should have no problem shutting him down
@ Oakland this is also a win our defense should have a field day with whoever is playing quarterback that week
vs. Kansas City another one that looks like we will be able to take. No Jamaal Charles in KC this year all we have to worry about is Bowe which should not be a problem
@ Denver is another one I see us winning. Tebow or Orton playing QB who cares? We can stop Mcgahee and Moreno and should run all over the Defense
vs. Seattle this is another win as long as we are not looking ahead to Green Bay the following week
@ Green Bay gotta score this one as a loss, playing the pack on Christmas in Lambeau? Impossible to win
@ Minnesota this will be a win, and most likely a game we are fired up for as we may have to win to secure a playoff spot
Overall, I definitely agree with the thread. 11 wins looks very nice especially if we can steal one in two weeks against Philly
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I'm with the OP. 11-5 isn't that far away for our team. But I think we won't be in the SB again. After this, JA gets an extension and I can't eat as much as I want to puke
I've got a 3 week long argument that we WILL win 11 games. Don't forget that we play MUCH better on turf than how the field looked years past; with that said, We'll be a lot faster against the Lions, and those fluke runs were just that, flukes. San Diego is NOT a cold weather team. Philip Rivers will more than likely tear up our defense, but keep in mind that Peppers has been playing on a bum knee (and still causing havoc). We can easily beat the Chargers as long as Forte is healthy; right now, they're allowing 121 yards on the ground a game, which Forte is more than capable of getting. Same with the Lions, we just need to run the ball against them, and even with the offense playing the way it was this previous game, has a good chance of putting a good number of points on the board against them.
Against the Pack, I really can't say, because most of their wins were against bad teams (when they played us, we were NOT on the top of our game, obviously). I think we beat the Eagles, just because we OWN Michael Vick, and Vick's scrambling abilities will be nullified by both Urlacher and Peppers, not to mention that as good as their offense is, they're another team that's giving up 120+ rushing yards a game. Any team that allows a lot of running yards is obviously not blowing out their opponents (because in the catchup game, the pass D will suffer)
Really, a lot of these games come down to this: If they finally shut down Forte, will the passing game under Cutler be able to move the ball and score for us?
Last edited by Henry Burris; 10-25-2011 at 10:39 AM.
It's not impossible for us to get to 12 win's. But to do that, they have to start playing against the playoff ready teams like they do against the scrubs. So far they haven't been able to even keep those games close, until TB; TB is a solid win; lets see them do it against Philly and SD(don't have to be wins, have to stay in it). I don't buy Bear weather; the guys from SD didn't just play in warm weather their whole lives, I'm pretty sure some grew up in the north and midwest, and east coast. Will they be as good as if it were in SD, no, but we aren't really set up for cold weather either.
As for GB, they did beat the Saints, Atl, and us, if you think that we can win 10+ then those are impressive wins. We have Atl and TB, Atl; and I'm not sure how good TB is they get blown out by SF, beat NO, then lose a squeaker to us. That team is all over the board recently.
I like your outlook, Starky.
If the Bear handle Philly, I will be more inclined to agree with what you have written. The Philly game has the potential to be a legitimate turning point for this team.
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