As we noted, Forte would earn about $7.7 million if the Bears make him their franchise player in 2012. But along with many others, I wasn't fully informed about how the NFL has arrived at that figure.
As ESPN analyst Andrew Brandt explained for the National Football Post, the league's new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) changed the fundamentals of the franchise tag. It's no longer the average of the five highest-paid players at the position. Instead, it's the average of the highest-paid player at the position in each of the last five years.
Because it reaches back to dated salary figures, the new formula has actually pulled down franchise tag numbers significantly and made it even less attractive for players. For example, the estimated $7.7 million franchise number for running backs in 2012 is about 19 percent less than the 2011 number.
As Brandt notes, this change could also impact the Green Bay Packers' upcoming negotiations with tight end Jermichael Finley. The 2012 franchise tag number for tight ends is estimated between $5.4 million and $5.6 million, about 27 percent less than the 2011 number of $7.3 million. Finley at $7.3 million sounded doable, but $5.6 million sounds like a relative slam dunk.
Generally speaking, the franchise tag is a bigger advantage for NFL teams than ever. Elite players can be locked up for substantially less than before, and the lower numbers will give teams a new tool to prevent departures from good players who wouldn't otherwise have been considered candidates for a high guaranteed salary.
I'm getting to that age where a lifetime warranty just doesn't mean as much to me anymore as an afternoon nap.
Honey Badger Don't Care. Honey Badger Don't Give a Shit.
Well now we have an even better idea of why the Bears are playing hardball with Forte's extension. Maybe the players reps didn't read the fine print or maybe they didn't care since the most it could affect in any given year is 32 players out of 1600.
This is one of those little give backs the owners slid in giving them more control over key players for less money. Based on this new way of calculating the price of a tag the money Forte could earn in 2012 if he's franchised drops from around $9.5 mil to $7.7 mil. That's pretty substantial and at partially explains why Forte has accused them of taking the cheap way our if they do franchise him.
It also pretty much explains why the guaranteed $$$ they've offered is so low. Cliff Stein being the wizard wiith numbers that he is has most likley discounted the future value of 2012 and 2013 franchise tags (around $15-$16 mil) to reflect their present value if he receives the money now rather than spread out in salaries which don't even begin until next September. Crafty but most definitely a low ball number.
The problem is that Forte has little or no leverage at all to use against that. He may want somewhere around $20 mil guaranteed but he has no way to force the Bears into doing that or even testing the waters of FA until the spring of 2014. That is not gonna make him a happy camper at all and it may well show up in his play eventually. I think the Bears would be wise to push their numbers up a bit more and face him with the facts that they're taking more risk offering him an extension than they would be taking by franchising him. Basically this is shitty position for Forte to be in.
I'm getting to that age where a lifetime warranty just doesn't mean as much to me anymore as an afternoon nap.
Honey Badger Don't Care. Honey Badger Don't Give a Shit.
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