The Song Remains the Same..............
Bears will try to stay on same path with Hanie
Offense may be simplified some, but basically it still will stress running
Dan Pompei On the NFL 7:54 p.m. CST, November 26, 2011
Footballs may or may not fill the air Sunday in Oakland, but change certainly will.
With Caleb Hanie taking over for Jay Cutler as quarterback of the Bears, there will be some differences when the Bears have the ball.
There likely will be more blitzing from the Raiders than the Bears have seen in recent weeks. That's the usual reaction from defensive coordinators when they get fresh meat at quarterback.
There likely will be more eight-man fronts too. If you were preparing for the Bears, wouldn't you want to load up against the run game without Cutler in the lineup?
There will be change in what the Bears do as well, though not drastic change. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz may have a slightly less ambitious game plan with Hanie.
If you are expecting Martz to ask Hanie to do what he asked Kurt Warner to do with the Rams, that won't happen.
"The things we were doing in St. Louis — get it out quick, things happen so quick — we'd never ask him to do that kind of stuff," Martz said.
What this offensive transition can underscore is how Martz has been so much more flexible than his reputation indicated. Even before this, the Bears offense already was going in a different direction than the offenses on which Martz made his name.
"We kind of tweaked it," Martz said. "We can really run the football. Those two big tight ends and the back and the line, they are just getting better every week. It allows you to go bang, bang, bang, get them all up there, and then throw it.
"There is nothing worse than having to throw the football every snap. I hated that because it's just so stressful for everybody. The quarterback gets hit. That's not fun. Fortunately, that's not where we are."
Where are they? Even with Cutler, their offense had become one that plays more power ball. They have used two tight ends on 23 percent of their plays. They have run the ball 52 percent. They have moved the quarterback.
Expect all of that to continue with Hanie.
"The things we've been doing kind of fit him," Martz said.
They reflect well on Martz, too.
"I've said my whole career you have to be pragmatic," he said. "People don't believe you when you say it. You have to find the strengths, what's working for you.
"In the off week I had a chance to reflect on my approach, make sure I wasn't putting our guys in a position where they weren't going to have as much success as they can." (But what does it always take you 8 weeks of the season before you "reflect" and change your ways?)
Now he's going to have to do it with a new quarterback.
Comprehend the trendSad sacks
The Bears have not been able to sack opposing quarterbacks no matter what they have done. They have 18 sacks, more than only five teams.
What's odd is the Bears have 44 hurries, second most in the league to the Raiders. What that tells you is the Bears need to work on finishing when they get close to the quarterback. (Exactly what I what I've been saying. The pressure is there but we're not closing the deal)
The solution is the blitz. The Bears have blitzed 98 times, according to STATS. On those 98, they have sacked the quarterback just twice for the worst percentage in the league. (With that poor of a percentage it doesn't play to blitz. The design of our blitzes sucks. They're "old school" and very predictable. I don't whether this in on Marinelli or on Babich but it would be nice of we got more terror out of it than we getting)
That being said, the blitz has not been completely ineffectual. They have five interceptions on blitzes. And opponents' passer rating against the blitz is 63.73 — fifth lowest in the league. (May not be getting the sacks but it's not all for naught)
Numbers games
Odd odds
According to Las Vegas oddsmakers, the Bears are a four-point underdog against the Raiders. This should not be a cause for alarm among Bears fans, however.
It might even be a good thing because it will enable coach Lovie Smith to trot out his favorite pregame speech. When the coach of the Bears talks about his team not getting respected, he could be talking mostly to oddsmakers.
The odds have been a poor gauge of how the Bears will do.
The 7-3 Bears have been favored in only five games this year. They have won twice as underdogs, against the Falcons and Eagles.
And the Bears have covered the spread in each of their last five games.
Before the season, oddsmakers set the victory total line for the Bears at 8 1/2. The Bears could get to nine as soon as next Sunday, and have four games to play. (This would have been a very good bet to take even before the season began. All the Bears hadf to do was win 9 to collect? To me the odds of that happening would have been about 80%)
Front office chessQB shopping
When Cutler broke his right thumb, the Bears had his replacement on the roster in Hanie.
What they needed was a replacement for Hanie, who was vacating the No. 2 quarterback spot. Ideally, it would be a replacement who could acclimate to Martz' system quickly, given the time of year.
Josh McCown, who played for Martz on the Lions, fit the profile. He should be a suitable replacement for Hanie.
But then it became apparent that a player was available who could be a replacement for Hanie or Cutler. The Broncos were waiving Kyle Orton, the former Bears starter.
The Bears were so interested in Orton, they put in a waiver claim on him, meaning they were willing to pay $2.604 million — his salary for the rest of the season — for just six games.
But the Bears were No. 30 in the order for waiver claims, and two teams who had higher priority also put in claims on Orton. He wound up going to the Chiefs, and as soon as the Bears found out they agreed to a much more economical deal with McCown.
dpompei@tribune.com
Twitter @danpompei
