Bears Analysis; The RB's, What's Ahead for Forte, Barber and Bell.......

Bears analysis: What's in future for Forte?

http://www.chicagotribune.com/media/...0-11064618.jpg Matt Forte carries the Bears' flag before the Dec. 4 game against the Chiefs at Soldier Field. (Brian Cassella/Tribune Photo)

• Related
• Should the Bears put more emphasis on the running game in 2012?
  
  • Yes. Matt Forte is an elite back, should be focal point of offense.
  • No. NFL is a passing league, give Jay Cutler more weapons.
  
  

By Brad Biggs, Tribune reporter 9:23 a.m. CST, January 11, 2012

Third in a 10-part series

A sprained MCL was the only thing that prevented Matt Forte from completing what would have been the finest season for a Chicago Bears running back since the days of Walter Payton.

Forte, who had a breakout season in 2010 in Mike Martz’s system, took it to the next level. He was leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage at the time of the injury in the Dec. 4 game vs. Kansas City, a setback that forced him to miss the final four regular-season games.

To put it in perspective, Forte had 1,487 yards from scrimmage in 12 games, just 129 yards behind his output from 2010. Had he maintained his average over the final four games, he would have finished with 1,983 yards, which would have ranked fifth in club history. Payton holds the top seven spots in franchise history with his best of 2,121 yards coming in 1977.

Big plays were the key for not only Forte but the offense. He had 12 rushes of 20 yards or more and five receptions. That’s what was missing in his game earlier in his career: the big chunks that would prop up his averages. The Bears did well running on the perimeter and that helped Forte have an average of 4.9 yards per carry -- a yard better than his average through the first two years of his career and a half-yard better than the previous season. He dedicated himself to speed training and showed up for training camp chiseled. All the hard work paid off.

The Bears swapped out an overpaid veteran backup in Chester Taylor for a less overpaid veteran backup in Marion Barber. Added into the mix was Kahlil Bell, who isn’t quite as good as former No. 3 back Garrett Wolfe was on special teams but offers more value on offense. The interesting move was the return of the fullback after a season without one. In the absence of blocking tight end Brandon Manumaleuna, the Bears added a fullback the week before the season started by poaching Tyler Clutts off the practice squad of the Cleveland Browns.

Roll call: Matt Forte (unrestricted free agent), Marion Barber (signed through 2012), Kahlil Bell (restricted free agent), Armando Allen (signed through 2013), Tyler Clutts (signed through 2013), Harvey Unga (signed through 2014).

2011 review: Training camp opened with a clear focus on the contract situation of Forte. His agent Adisa Bakari visited training camp and met with club officials, including team president Ted Phillips, but the sides couldn’t find any common ground on a long-term extension. The Bears hoped an angry Forte would be a productive Forte and that turned out to be the case even if it took Martz a little while to get into the groove with the running game again.

Forte had only 35 carries through the first three games, and nine in a Week 3 loss to the Green Bay Packers, forcing an early look at why Martz was ignoring the run again, especially after an offseason in which subtle roster moves had been made, making it clear the Bears identified themselves as a running team. But Forte broke loose in Week 4 with a 205-yard game against the Carolina Panthers, tying him with Payton and Gale Sayers for second best day in club history. That was the start of a seven-game stretch where Forte averaged 21.6 carries per game and the first of four 100-yard games in a span of five. The ground game really got rolling as the Bears headed into a five-game winning streak.

Clutts’ addition made a difference as Forte has always been more productive in two-back sets. While we wouldn’t compare Barber or Bell to Forte, it was impressive to see the ground game continue to produce after Forte went out. Barber and Bell both had 100-yard games and the Bears were one of only three teams in the league to have three backs with 100-yard games. That is a testament to the scheme Martz was using and the run-blocking ability of the offensive line.

Barber was a better complement to Forte than Taylor the year before and not just because he performed better than Taylor, who walked away with $7 million after averaging less than 2.4 yards per carry in 2010. Barber is a powerful runner between the tackles while Taylor, in his prime, had skills that more closely mirrored Forte. But given a chance to carry the load, Barber also showed a tendency to make mental mistakes. He was responsible for an illegal formation penalty that erased a touchdown in the 10-3 loss to the Chiefs at Soldier Field. The next week, he ran out of bounds with the Bears working to run out the clock in the closing minutes, and then he fumbled in overtime.

The hard-running Bell took over and excelled. He has a violent style of running that might make it hard to stay healthy in the long run and while he did well, he also fumbled three times in one five-quarters stretch. The Bears also tested out Allen at the end and he’s an intriguing guy. If he can prove to be a valuable special teams player, he could be an upgrade as a third running back.

Free agency/draft priority: Forte is the biggest free agent for the Bears and you have to imagine Bakari is looking forward to the opportunity to negotiate with a new general manager, but the budget is set from above and it might not change too much. If Forte can’t get a long-term deal, the Bears are certain to place the franchise tag on him. Barber is signed through next season but at $1.9 million, and after a mixed season of production, it would not be surprising if he is cut loose. The bigger decision could be what to do with Bell, who will be restricted. The low tender for RFA’s in 2011 was $1.2 million. Do the Bears want to invest that kind of money in Bell or potentially work to sign him to a multi-year deal? The coaching staff showed no hesitation promoting him over Barber into the No. 2 role at the end of the season and this is a conversation that probably will take place once the new GM is in place. Maybe the Bears will look to add a late-round pick at the position but it’s not a pressing need.

Looking ahead: Forte is a high-mileage back who has proven to be durable when you consider he started 61 consecutive games before the MCL sprain, an injury that did not require surgery. He’s had 1,237 touches over the last four seasons when you combine rushes and receptions. Add in his senior season at Tulane and in five seasons he’s had 1,630 touches -- an average of 326 per year. He’s only gotten better and remains in is prime and there is no reason to believe he’ll slow down in 2012. At least publicly, Forte said he wanted Martz to return. Why not? His career went to the next level in the last two seasons. But the promotion of offensive line coach Mike Tice might be the next-best thing. Tice won’t lose sight of the running game and that will benefit Forte, especially if he is playing under a one-year deal again.

Bottom line: The Bears need to develop the offense around quarterback Jay Cutler,but it’s hard to imagine Tice straying from a run-first approach.

Next: Linebackers.

bmbiggs@tribune.com

Twitter @BradBiggs

I guess the big question on everyone's mind is whether or not having a new GM to negotiate with will break the logjam in contract talks with Matt Forte. Personally I think both sides need to be more realistic. The offer Angelo put on the table wasn't as generous as he thought it was and Forte and his agent need to back off demands that the Bears give him a deal equivalent to the one DWill got.

Every single one of the RB's who got those big dollar deal underperformed this season and that's not helping his arguement. Somewhere between the $14 mil in guarantees the Bears and the $21 mil DWill got there must be a figure both sides can live with. Ted Phillips reiterated the Bears desire to sign Forte to a long term deal but if that's really their objective they have to move off that previous offer. Lacking that there's zero chance Forte sees free agency. The Bears will place a franchise tag on him.

My thinking is that Barber will go to training camp this year and he and Bell will battle it out for the #2 spot. If he can hold onto the ball I'd say Bell has an edge. He's a tough inside runner just like Barber but he's got more ability to pick his way through the trash. He's not overly fast but he's got quickness to him and he's a good north/south kind of runner. This should be an interesting battle come July.

Armando Allen showed that he can run the ball in the NFL. If they can find a way to use him far better than they did with Garrett Wolfe he may become a good change of pace back. That and excelling on ST's is the only way he makes the roster.

The wild card guy is Harvey Unga. The Bears still hold his rights and from what I've read he plans to return this summer and take another shot at making the team. He's a true short yardage guy with an ability to catch the ball out of the backfield as well. If Unga does return and does well Barber will almost certainly be cut.

I guess you could say this is one position where we don't have any immediate concerns and a need to add guys to the roster. I'm sure they'll be another RB or two signed as free agents but it would be foolish to spend a draft pick on one.

I like our RB situation. If we find a GM that is not against Smith and Tice, Forte will get his extension. I like our situation

If there is anything that the Bears' running game is noted for, it is this: it has one of the very best running games in the league. I think it will only get better under Tice, which will benefit Cutler because then he can throw deep bombs to whomever his big target will be.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Dagan81

If there is anything that the Bears' running game is noted for, it is this: it has one of the very best running games in the league. I think it will only get better under Tice, which will benefit Cutler because then he can throw deep bombs to whomever his big target will be.

---

The winning formula in Denver's Super Bowl years under Shanahan was a very strong run game to move the ball and control the clock couple with Elway's big play passing. Some forget just how much of a Brett Favre type gunslinger Johnny boy was. In fact he was the original gunslinger. Favre came later.

When Elway retired the Broncos success went with him because he was irreplaceable in that offense. That is until Cutler came along. Shanny saw the same things in Cutler that he had in Elway. Mobility, ability to accurately throw on the run and without setting up properly, a gun for an arm and a willingness and ability to make throws no one else would even attempt.

Unfortunately for Jay Shanny got fired just as he was beginning to look like a star and his career has stalled out ever since. McDaniels didn't want him and Martz tried to make him into something he's not. Let's hope Mike Tice can handle the situation far better than his predecessor. It's time for Jay to star again.

Jay Cutler is still a star, and I think that he can put up more 4,000 yard passing seasons in the future, even as a Bear, though with the way the Bears will undoubtedly run it, he'll never make it to 5,000. (Sometimes, I wonder whether this year was an aberration with all the big passing records falling because of the lack of spring practice and a abbreviated training camp schedule being of more harm to the defenses.)

Well w/the way the NFL is trending if he cannot put up 4K yards either he, or this O, is inept. The top 10 QB's all put up 4K in yards this year, and one was a Rookie. The top 4 all put up 5k, oops manning(not the HoF one) merely put up 4900, top 3. 11-20 put up 3K yards, 10-14 all putting up 3500. 4K in yards is quickly becoming the 1K yards in rushing, it's just not an elite standard like it was and should be.
This is no abberation, this is how the rules are set up. QB's are allowed to stay in the pocket and feel more comfortable b/c they know they cannot get to high, to low, or to late. They also know the longer they wait the more likely they are to get a PI call, even if the pass isn't complete. This is what the NFL wants(and it's a shame).
Give Cuts the tools(WR's/TE's) an OL and keep Forte/Bell around and you'll see him excel and be up there near the 5K range.

I'd agree with you Ric. That's only 250 yards a game and if you complete 20 of 30 for the game that's a 12.5 yard per completion average. Any top QB on a decent team should be able to make that. 5k is a stretch though. Gotta have a real sharp passing oriented offense for that.

at 30 completions, it's only 8.3 yards per attempt. And I can see O's going to 35-45 passes easy, which drops that # quite a bit, 45 is 5.5 yards. Bring up the ypa to 7(which is give or take average to slightly below average and you get 315 at 45 attempts and there is your 5K. Now your bottom 1/2 stand no chance of getting that, but your top 10 I can easily see this happening.

Ric and Soul, I think that you both make excellent points. However, with this offensive system that Tice is going to install, I just don't see the Bears really going to a system where they throw the ball 35-45 times per game UNLESS it is to exploit certain matchups. I still believe that the most complete offenses in the league are the ones in Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Houston, because they feature a mixture of pass and run so prevalently in their offense schemes. I feel like Tice will bring that to the table with the Bears' offense. Now, all we need is a good blocker at LT and we would be complete.

Soul, you mentioned something in a post in another thread that I found interesting. You mentioned the schemes that Mike Shanahan ran in Denver that won the Broncos two Super Bowls. What was interesting about the running plays were that most of them were zone blocking schemes like Shanahan is running in Washington right now. If Tice were to run something like that, I'd say that the Bears would become the best rushing offense in the NFL with their stable of backs.