Matt Bowen; The 40 Times Are Coming Up..................

This is WR oriented but I know we all seem to have a respect for Matt Bowen and his column so I thought I'd give this it's own thread. Some think 40 times are overemphasized as far as a players over all potential but Bowen brings a players perspective into it from someone whose gone through it themselves. I'll trust what he has to say above the gurus and talking heads.



The '40 times' are coming

Why the 40-yard dash is still the ultimate combine test. Matt Bowen

February 16, 2012 Share
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The 40-yard dash is still the ultimate test at the NFL scouting combine. Look past the 3-cone drill, short shuttle and the broad jump. Those drills will all be taken into account when grading a prospect based off of his numbers in Indianapolis next week, but the 40 will create some serious “buzz” if you post a solid time.

It was the same way when I ran back in 2000 at the combine and it will be no different this year. Because the 40-yard dash can make you some money.
http://cdn.cloudfiles.mosso.com/c191...g/Jeffery2.jpgICONThe 40-yard dash will impact the draft stock of players such as South Carolina WR Alshon Jeffery.


There is a reason prospects train at API (Athletes' Performance Institute) or work daily with their college strength coach back on campus on their stance, start, stride and finish. (And as I was saying in another post training up just to be speedy for the Combine doesn't do much for you if you don't maintain that level afterwords)


I completely understand that the 40 isn’t a very good judge of “football speed” when you turn on the tape. And outside of covering a kick on special teams, breaking a run in the open field or chasing from behind as a DB in a trail position when you are beat, you don’t play this game with top end linear speed. (Amen, which is why in certain positions it has very little effect on your game. OT's only run 40 yards when they're chasing the guy who picked their QB)


Even in your own tape study, you are watching game situations that don’t apply to a prospect’s ability to explode out of his stance, build up speed and finish through the line. However, the 40 still plays into your grade as a prospect—because speed sells. (More on a basis of comparison with others than as a stand alone absolute. It's one guys speed relative to anothers that may make the difference in who a team drafts)


WRs, DBs, RBs, QBs, etc. NFL GMs and head coaches want to get a time on these prospects as part of the scouting process.


Look at a prospect like South Carolina’s Alshon Jeffery. Size and production at the WR position, but still some questions on his speed. The same questions brought up by the NFP's Wes Bunting in his scouting reports and the NFL Network’s Mike Mayock yesterday in a conference call with the media. (This has to be looked at as a concern for any team who drafts him)


What happens if the WR posts a time next week in the 4.6s or beyond? Then the real questions will start to surface, because like CB, Jeffery plays a “stopwatch position.”These times do impact your draft stock, and for most prospects, it is the one test that trumps every other drill, interview or position specific movement you do on the field in front of the entire NFL.


The key, however, is to take that 40-time and apply it to the game tape to continue the grading process. That is the one piece of advice I can give you when we start to see these results posted in Indy. (A good talent evaluator as Emery is said to be should be able to make the distinction between 40-times and "game speed" by watching game tapes on his prospects. That's one advantage of having a GM with a strong scouting background)


But those 40-times will still create a major buzz in Indy for prospects that run well and bring more doubts for those who don’t. Because it is still the one test that everyone will be talking about when the combine wraps up. (Like it or not is is what it is. At those positions Bowen mentions speed will be what separates guys in their final rankings. It should be interesting to see how the rankings decks shuffle after the Combine)

Just tossing this up to stir some debate on how concerned we should be that guys like Floyd and Jeffery who have been mentioned as potential first round picks do have some issue with their speed. As Maycock said in his evaluations of a few of the WR, "big and fast" is good, "big and slow" is not.

I think we're all in the mode of not wanting athletes and track stars more than we want football players but since we're in the market for WR's and DB's, and those are "stop watch positions" speed, or lack thereof will be a huge factor in separating one player from another.

Have at it guys. Let's hear some opinions.

Who needs a strong NFL Combine performance?

Breaking down which offensive prospects need a big week in Indy. Wes Bunting

February 16, 2012 Share
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Who are the main offensive prospects that need a big Combine performance to really help push their draft stock…
http://cdn.cloudfiles.mosso.com/c191...k-Osweiler.jpgICONOsweiler is impressive throwing the football.


QB Brock Osweiler: Arizona State (6-8, 240)
The guy has some talent and can sling the football. However, much like Ryan Mallett last season, he's going to need to play in an offense where he can throw the football down the field and isn't going to be forced to make many quick throws underneath, where he struggles with timing, footwork and ball placement. If everything falls into place for Osweiler, meaning he develops as a quarterback mentally, has time to work at his trade and falls into a perfect fit for him physically (Steelers, Patriots, Raiders) he does have the talent to eventually fight for a starting job in the NFL. However, this is a guy who is going to look great throwing against air at the NFL Combine and with a strong performance could rise up into the mid/late first round range.


RB Chris Polk: Washington (5-11, 222)
He’s a big kid with a good feel inside, runs hard and will break some tackles. However, pad level, initial burst and lack of great change of direction skills make me think he's more of a potential NFL starter only. Didn’t have a great Senior Bowl in Mobile and it will be interesting to see just how explosive he is both as a short area athlete and straight-line guy at the NFL Combine. Needs a big week to get some positive momentum going his way.


WR Alshon Jeffery: South Carolina (6-4, 229)
A big wide out who lacks ideal top end speed and isn't a real explosive self-starter. He does display a little short area quickness for his size, however, not enough to consistently create legit separation off the line. Does a great job extending his long arms and adjusting to the football and the further down the field he can stride the tougher he is to cover. Nevertheless, Jeffery needs to prove he can run and in my mind anything in the 4.6 range is only going to add to the questions about his potential in the NFL. (Maybe a guy like Jonathan Baldwin last year. Productive in college but speed is suspect for the NFL?)


WR Stephen Hill: Georgia Tech (6-5, 206)
Has a unique skill set, can pluck off his frame, track the football and is the next big time talent from the Georgia Tech program. Is going to need some time to develop, but can come in and track football vertically early on. Has a lot of upside to his game and skill set says he's an NFL starter. However, much like Jeffery these bigger receivers need to prove they have the straight-line speed to threaten corners vertically. If Hill can run in the 4.5 range or better, he could end up separating himself from the rest of the “big” wide receiver pack. (This is the kid some are comparing to Randy Moss. Well he has Moss size, and catching ability but if all he runs is a 4.5 in his prime Moss would out run him doing a backpedal)


TE Orson Charles: Georgia (6-3, 241)
A gifted athlete who can create a lot of mismatches in the pass game. Should be able to improve as a route runner as well. Not quite as polished as Aaron Hernandez as an H-back coming out, but could end up playing a similar type role. Therefore, for a guy whose game is built on speed and athleticism, he needs to prove at the Combine that he is in fact the kind of dynamic threat his tape says he is, if he wants a shot at going in round one. (A real good catch for the right team with the right system. Maybe Indy to replace an aging Dallas Clark?)


OT Andrew Datko: Florida State (6-6, 321)
He's a solid athlete who can bend, re-direct and block in space. However, he's had some struggles with power when trying to stay engaged and hasn't been able to stay healthy throughout his career. Nevertheless, in a weak offensive tackle class, he's one of the few prospects that possess the skill set to start in the NFL. But he needs to prove that his medical can be clean going forward, which is the biggest question mark I have about his game. (Let's just be glad that JA isn't still running the draft or this kid would be drafted by the Bears)


Follow me on twitter: @WesBunting

40 times are a good metric for some things like YAC and the like. Being quick in-between moves and having that extra gear when your chased means more imo. I think the key is to find a guy with the right blend of demonstrative speed/quickness that fits into various packages.

For DB's I lean toward the 3 cone drill. Didn't Conte have one of the better 3-cone times last year as well?

I think the whole combine is overrated. If a guy was a 3rd round pick before, but now everyone's wanting him in the 2nd, I say ***** that.

I'm not sold on the relevance of the 40 time. It rarely correlates completely to game speed. I'm not even sure that the difference between 1/10th of a second really makes any in game difference t all. I'm trying to find out how far that is.

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Originally Posted by short faced bear

40 times are a good metric for some things like YAC and the like. Being quick in-between moves and having that extra gear when your chased means more imo. I think the key is to find a guy with the right blend of demonstrative speed/quickness that fits into various packages.

For DB's I lean toward the 3 cone drill. Didn't Conte have one of the better 3-cone times last year as well?

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I think at certain positions you're spot on shorty but there are a couple like WR and CB that are very sensitive to 40 times because those are your downfield weapon and defender and you need to know whether they have that extra gear or not. At other positions including RB it's less important and for Olineman it's virtually meaningless.

Conte did have a decent 40 time (played a lot of CB in college) and his agility drills were a big factor too but top speed in less important for a Safety. In those guys you want range, tackling ability, instincts and ability to go get the ball, covering skills and toughness. There's probably no other position on the field that requires a more diverse set of skills yet they are one of the lowest paid positions in the league.