Thread: Andrew Brandt Analyses Free Agent Prospects; Wide Receivers..............

I'll take DeSean and Floyd...

Here's the first in a series of analyses by Andrew Brandt of FA prospects at various positions. This pretty timely since this is the number one area that we need to be targeting once FA hunting season begins. Our bag limit will be set by our cap excess of roughly $28-$30 mil and while that's substantial it still doesn't mean we can afford everything in the store especially if we're shopping the top shelf in every aisle. Some choices need to be made as to where we can get the biggest bang for the buck.

Looking at this group of the 5 top prospects Brandt seems to feel that only two will reach FA, VJax and Colston. So one logical question would be are we prepared to offer a 29 year old WR $50 mil over 5 years and guarantee about half of that? Keep in mind that we have extensions for Uralcher, Cutler, and a number of other starters coming up next year. As much as I'd love to have him how can you justify giving him more than we're wanting to pay Forte? VJax I love you man but that price tag is just too steep.

Colston should be available for far less but there is the knee injury issue to consider. Just how big a problem is it and just how much will it effect his availability or his play? Even if the total package costs less no matter what we're gonna have guaranteed $$$ tied up in a guy with a bad knee. So far he's failed to get 1000 yards receiving in only one year averaging 75 catches per year and 8 TDs. The bottom line is despite his bad knee he continues to be a very productive receiver. I guess if we're gonna take a chance on any of the top 5 Colston would probably be the guy but before I made an offer there's one thing I'd need to research. This is a "dome guy" so how well has he done playing on grass outdoors in cold weather. That's almost as important as any other factor.

The only other guy we've all been discussing is Bowe and with the treasure trove of cap excess KC is sitting on they should have no trouble either signing him long term or paying the freight to franchise him this year and work out a long term deal with another of our wish list guys, Brandon Carr. Given KC's cap situation I would think we have much chance of getting either of these guys.

I'm not really interested at all in DeSean Jackson. He's gonna be pricey and he's not a team player. If we want an attitude risk let's sign Moss. He'll be much cheaper and easier to get rid of if he does screw up.

I think what this may be telling us is that we may have to look at the next tier of guys where Meachem, Wayne, MM, and Royal reside. As I said before, we can get two of these guys for the price of one of the top 5. I know there are guys who are strongly opposed to the "band-aid" approach but this clearly demonstrates why we need to start developing our own #1 guy now.

Great WR's are always in demand and few ever reach FA until they're in their late 20's or even early 30's. The few who are available command top dollar as in $9-$10 mil or year with huge guarantees. There's a lot of risk there if they get injured or their production declines. It's kind of like buying a used car that someone else has gotten the best miles out of and paying more for it than a new one. That's the penalty for drafting poorly I guess and in this regard we have but I still don't believe in risking a second mistake to make up for the first.

I still come back to my original thoughts about trying to land guys like Wayne, Meachem, and Royal. Sure Reggie's nothing more than a band-aid but for two years while we develop a 2012 draftee and guys like Bennett and Knox improve or get replaced it's the most effective way to solve an immediate problem. Wayne can be had for far less $$$ if he's not bound and deterimined to follow Manning wherever he goes.

If not Wayne then let's look at Meachem and sign Royal. So far Meachem has been kind of a "one trick pony" but we have a QB with an arm that can easily reach him downfield and we use Royal to work underneath which despite his smaller size he's very good at. Then we plug Kellen Davis back into the passing game and let him and Bennett work the middle. Meachem may not be anywhere near a number one now and he may never become one but if we have another in the hopper to develop then it's less of a problem.

I think we have to make some improvements but without putting all of our eggs ($$$) in one basket which is exactly what will happen if we shell out $40-$50 mil deals to just one guy. JMHO.

Originally Posted by Henry Burris

I'll take DeSean and Floyd...

Then you'll have to trade for DeSean so what pick will you use for that and if it costs us a first what would you use to draft Floyd? If we were to do that you know what I think would happen? Instead of one underacheiver with an attitude we'd have two. JMO

I want depth first and foremost

Bennett is fine as #3, Hester as #5

Sign 2 #2s and draft a WR in the 2nd Round and GBPH is happy.

I think the Combine will tell a lot about the direction Emery decided to go in FA too. If he sees good draft prospects that may fall to us and that we can develop then he may go after the more affordable options in FA. We need to resign OUR FA's as well and need to keep that in mind. Cliff is VERY GOOD at that and I think we will get a "Cap Friendly" deal done with Forte soon. At least that's the way I hope things work out.

Originally Posted by WindyCity

I know that you do not like the WR draft class, but it is a solid group and based on what you are telling me of the free agent class we need to target teir 2 free agent WRs and then get involved in the draft.

John Clayton said the only place to get a #1 WR, that is not going to cost you 10 million a year, is in the draft.

Sign

Robert Meachem
Eddie Royal

Draft

Trade Down and get a 3rd round pick

1[24] WR Rueben Randle [LSU]

1. Randle
2. Meachem
3. Bennett
4. Royal

And John Clayton is 100% correct but you also can't reach and draft guys who have less than an average chance of becoming #1 WR and that's what you have in this years draft. The only two guys I can see who have the goods to become #1 type are Blackmon and Wright and both rate behind the two top picks in the 2011 draft.

Randle may have the speed to become one but I don't see that with Floyd, Jeffery, or Sanu. I think the comparison of Sanu to Hakeem Nicks is a reasonable one (and in the larger scheme of things Nicks is not considered an elite #1 WR) but there is no way in hell Floyd is even close to being the next Larry Fitzgerald. Every once in a while a guy comes along that just defies the odds against him because of a lack of top end speed and becomes an elite WR. Jerry Rice is the best example I can give but for every one of him there's 50 who don't make the grade. Rice also had the benefit of working in exactly the right system, under exactly the right coach and with an incredible HOF QB.

So on the final analysis if we sign Meachem and Royal we don't really need to draft Randle in one. Meachem = a more experienced Randle. Royal = a more experienced Sanz. We still have Bennett and he's far better than a #3 WR and from what I've been reading Knox's rehab is on track and he should return good as new.

Save that first to use on another position. We don't need to stock up on two FA's and a first round pick. There are guys like McNutt, Jones, Toon and Quick who represent far less risk and rank only slightly below this rather mediocre top tier. Like I said what you've got is a compression in this WR group where the top guys are dropping enough so that there isn't all that much difference between a Floyd and a McNutt.

The more I look at things the more I become convinced that unless we can sign a top pass rusher like Williams or Avril in FA then we should be looking at Ingram on draft day. The caliber of pass rushers drops off considerably after he's gone. The next tier are good players but not spectacular rushers. Essentially the next tier are younger versions of Alex Brown and Izzy not Pep.

I'd give more than a passing glance to an OT IF there was a guy I was convinced could come in and replace Webb but based on what the team has been saying and what some of the draft guru's have been saying a guy like Adams could be a disappointment at the next level at least in the short run. Glenn is a maybe IF he can play LT. He's as big as a house and reported to be pretty athletic and that's what Tice loves but he needs to play LT, not OG.

I'll tell you what my biggest concern is with this WR class. All of them, Blackmon included, will need some time to develop their skills to the NFL level. Not one is a first day #1 starter and as we get farther down the list their issues become greater to overcome. You can teach Knox to run better routes and to fight for the ball but you can't teach Floyd or Jeffery or Sanu to be faster. Spending a 1st round pick on a WR and asking Darryl Drake to make a #1 WR out of him is like asking Sam Hurd to conduct and drug and alcohol awareness class. I simply don't think we have a coach who can do it and I'd rather not waste the pick.

Get at least one vet even if Royal is the only one you can get and draft a rookie like McNutt, Toon, or Quick in round two or three and let Drake work on developing a guy with less risk that we're taking with a first round pick.

That's my viewpoint and I'll stick to it until one of those guys proves differently.

Originally Posted by soulman

And John Clayton is 100% correct but you also can't reach and draft guys who have less than an average chance of becoming #1 WR and that's what you have in this years draft. The only two guys I can see who have the goods to become #1 type are Blackmon and Wright and both rate behind the two top picks in the 2011 draft.

Randle may have the speed to become one but I don't see that with Floyd, Jeffery, or Sanu. I think the comparison of Sanu to Hakeem Nicks is a reasonable one (and in the larger scheme of things Nicks is not considered an elite #1 WR) but there is no way in hell Floyd is even close to being the next Larry Fitzgerald. Every once in a while a guy comes along that just defies the odds against him because of a lack of top end speed and becomes an elite WR. Jerry Rice is the best example I can give but for every one of him there's 50 who don't make the grade. Rice also had the benefit of working in exactly the right system, under exactly the right coach and with an incredible HOF QB.

So on the final analysis if we sign Meachem and Royal we don't really need to draft Randle in one. Meachem = a more experienced Randle. Royal = a more experienced Sanz. We still have Bennett and he's far better than a #3 WR and from what I've been reading Knox's rehab is on track and he should return good as new.

Save that first to use on another position. We don't need to stock up on two FA's and a first round pick. There are guys like McNutt, Jones, Toon and Quick who represent far less risk and rank only slightly below this rather mediocre top tier. Like I said what you've got is a compression in this WR group where the top guys are dropping enough so that there isn't all that much difference between a Floyd and a McNutt.

The more I look at things the more I become convinced that unless we can sign a top pass rusher like Williams or Avril in FA then we should be looking at Ingram on draft day. The caliber of pass rushers drops off considerably after he's gone. The next tier are good players but not spectacular rushers. Essentially the next tier are younger versions of Alex Brown and Izzy not Pep.

I'd give more than a passing glance to an OT IF there was a guy I was convinced could come in and replace Webb but based on what the team has been saying and what some of the draft guru's have been saying a guy like Adams could be a disappointment at the next level at least in the short run. Glenn is a maybe IF he can play LT. He's as big as a house and reported to be pretty athletic and that's what Tice loves but he needs to play LT, not OG.

I'll tell you what my biggest concern is with this WR class. All of them, Blackmon included, will need some time to develop their skills to the NFL level. Not one is a first day #1 starter and as we get farther down the list their issues become greater to overcome. You can teach Knox to run better routes and to fight for the ball but you can't teach Floyd or Jeffery or Sanu to be faster. Spending a 1st round pick on a WR and asking Darryl Drake to make a #1 WR out of him is like asking Sam Hurd to conduct and drug and alcohol awareness class. I simply don't think we have a coach who can do it and I'd rather not waste the pick.

Get at least one vet even if Royal is the only one you can get and draft a rookie like McNutt, Toon, or Quick in round two or three and let Drake work on developing a guy with less risk that we're taking with a first round pick.

That's my viewpoint and I'll stick to it until one of those guys proves differently.

Let me start by saying that I agree we cannot read for a WR and we need to get appropriate value. If Michael Floyd runs a 4.6 I do not want to take him at 19 because of need I would take him at 25. Plus if we follow the value model than my man Cordy Glenn might be a BEAR.

The counter arguement is that in year 1 Randle may be a complimentary piece and no better than Meachem, but in year 2 might be a Pro Bowl WR.

I know you think we can develop a 2nd or 3rd round WR into a #1 guy down the road, but every pick that goes by it gets to be a riskier proposition. In the 2nd round we will probably be looking at players like Sanu and Jeffery and I do not think either will ever be a #1 WR. I can see Randle being a #1 WR for the Bears.

At some point we need to get a WR into the system that has DOMINANT potential and the best way to do that is in the 1st round. The Bears are never going to be drafting high enough to take a Calvin Johnson type prospect. They need to bring someone in who may take a year or two to become dominant.

Get at least one vet even if Royal is the only one you can get and draft a rookie like McNutt, Toon, or Quick in round two or three and let Drake work on developing a guy with less risk that we're taking with a first round pick.

This is another problem as McNutt, Toon and Quick are ranked lower because many in the scouting community are not conivinced they can be impact players. I am not saying they cannot be, but it is more of a risk hoping for Toon to develop into a #1 than Floyd.

Also Darryl Drake is a terrible coach and I worry about him developing anyone, that is why I like the idea od adding Reggie Wayne who can coach the young guys up.