Thread: Current OL Analysis & Offseason Implications

Well done my man, well done. I like and agree with your logic and I think you did a fine job putting this mammoth together. I might have varying choices in some of your draft selections, but we all have our own opinions, especially once you get past the second round and especially considering this is all so early in the off season process. That said, I will not sit and nitpick your selections as you obviously put a lot of time into it. Again, well done.

Originally Posted by MPBears68

Current OL Analysis

The Bears’ OL has been a patchwork, “musical chairs” shell game for several years now. Although there have been improvements and the arrow seems to be pointing upward finally, the OL overall is still well below where it should be, especially on pass protection, and GM Phil Emery should make at least one substantial move this offseason to keep moving in the right direction. The most acute need is for improvement at the LT position but the interior OL also has age, injury, and future contractual issues to consider as well. Basically, any position other than RT can be addressed and doing so wisely would improve the whole OL both this year and for the future. Roster includes…

Carimi: He lost most of his rookie season to injury but looks to be a fixture OT for the team for years to come with his collegiate experience and accomplishments. Tice insists that he’s purely an RT, which does seem to be his best fit with his skill set, so I am not going to project him at LT and hope the team lets him develop properly without shuffling him around. He has future RT pro-bowl potential and was JA’s best recent draft pick.

Webb: He’s been“coached up” extensively from low draft expectations (a credit to Tice) but is at or near his ceiling. Webb would make a fine backup/swing OT—still a steal for a 7^th rounder—as he has experience at both positions but his inconsistency, penalties, mental miscues, and frequent need for double-team and chip help make him a very suboptimal starting LT option. At minimum, he needs to be competed against and “pushed” if he’s going to play LT again in 2012.

EWill: The only interior OLman I’m aware of that isn’t facing either age, injury concerns, or contract issues soon. He’s definitely worth keeping around as a backup OG/C role player but doesn’t project as a likely starter for 2012.

Garza: He’s solid but aging as the veteran captain of the OL. Garza did a fine job at OC last year filling in of necessity due to Kreutz’s departure, but he’s even better as an OG. Depending on offseason moves, he will start somewhere on the interior of the OL in 2012. His position though will need to be filled in the not too distant future as he has perhaps 2-3 more years left given his age.

Louis: LL is another7^th round “steal” who has outperformed usual expectations. He hasn’t hit his ceiling yet and projects better as an OG but can also play some RT in a pinch. This versatility makes him a keeper at this point for both 2012 and a likely re-sign after his contract expires in 2013. Louis is expected to compete for and probably start as an OG this coming season.

Spencer: He was signed shotgun-style after a disappointing tenure in Seattle to replace Kreutz but lost the OC job to Garza in TC last year. Despite an injury he did play well at RG though and projects to compete for a starting job and at least be a solid backup OG/C this year. His future beyond 2012 (FA after this season) will depend largely on what personnel changes occur and how well he acquits himself this year.

CWill: The big wildcard on the OL in my opinion for both this year and the near future as he too becomes a FA in 2013. CW has been plagued by injuries and inconsistency his whole career, but has also had his“developmental ceiling” negatively impacted by being shuffled around the line for a few years. Originally drafted as an LT, he was allowed far less time to settle in there than Webb has been afforded, especially for a 1^st round pick. He did play well at LG last year and 2012 shapes up for him as a “make or break” season for his future with the team. If he stays healthy and continues to improve, he would be a fine OG/OT keeper. I see CW as the one player currently on the roster who should be given an opportunity to wrest the LT job away from Webb if the Bears do not sign/draft another OT option for 2012.

Omiyale: FO has been an utter failure as both a starting and reserve OT, at both ends, and he’s vastly overpaid as well. Cutting him this offseason is a no-brainer that frees up significant cap space and upgrading the backup OT position on the depth chart is the “bar-set-low” bare minimum the team must accomplish by September in terms of OL improvement.

Potential OL improvements in FA

The OL free-agent options are thin this year and signing a starting/potentially-starting LT seems unlikely given the expense, other FA needs, and the question marks surrounding the potential available players (Bell, McNeill, etc). Likewise, signing an OG would be unwise as there are good players available in the draft if desired for far less cost and the need there is less pressing in the immediate term. I see “FA OL help” as gravy if it happens but not an area where Emery is likely to spend money. That leaves the draft…

Preliminary pre-Combine OL Draft overview

OT: The OT class is thin in terms of starting quality players this year at the top. Kalil is the cream of the crop and will assuredly be a top-5 pick. Reiff, Martin, and Adams (in approximate order of increasing availability) are the only other “1^st round material” players who could conceivably impact at LT for 2012. There are a number of players who project to mid-draft that wouldn’t start right away but could be good developmental prospects for the future. These include Nate Potter, Mitchell Schwartz, Andrew Datko, and Matt McCants off the top of my head.

OG: Two players, David DeCastro (esp. IMO) & Cordy Glenn, look like uncommon 1^stround, “can’t miss” OG options who would be immediate starters. Many others will be available down draft for depth and future consideration, with Kevin Zeitler probably being the best ofthe bunch in the 2^nd-3^rd. Although less of an immediate need than OT, drafting a starter at OG would allow a competition between CWill & Webb at LT.

C: Centers don’t often crack the 1^st round either unless they are elite talent/immediate starters and Peter Konz of Wisconsin appears to be just that. He will probably go in the latter 1^st and projects as a franchise-center-of-the-future for whatever team drafts him. Michael Brewster and others look like mid-round potentials. Although less of an immediate need than OT, drafting a starter at OC would move Garza back to OG and allow a competition between CWill & Webb at LT.

Bears FA Strategy

The recent lessons learned from the Giants’ SB win reveal how valuable a reliably good pass rush is to neutralize opposing offenses and winning key games, especially when a team has a good QB, decent WRs/running game, and a solid OL to score with. The NYG beat 4 straight teams this postseason—Atlanta, Green Bay, San Francisco, & New England—all of whom had very good-to-excellent QBs/receivers with just this formula…a competent, well-led offense and a fierce DL that kept opposing QBs/receivers off balance and unable to put up their usual big numbers.

I have come to the opinion that the Bears should forgo spending big money on a marqui WR like Colston, Bowe, Wallace, or VJackson and should make improving their WR corps a secondary FA priority. In other words, upgrade WR but don’t “break the bank” in doing so, even though that means signing player(s) that would otherwise be considered second-tier or stopgaps.

Instead, Emery should focus like a laser beam on making his “headliner” FA acquisition a young, dynamic, game-changing pass rusher and spend his money here as the higher priority. That means signing Mario Williams (preferred) or Cliff Avril. It would be pricey but worth it to secure a player with immediate impact who is entering the prime of his career and it would virtually guarantee putting one of the best DLs in the NFL on the field for 2012. The combination of Peppers, Williams, and our up-and-coming DTs would be utterly dominant for several years and that pass rush would help mask a lack of elite talent in the secondary.

FA Plan: Make whatever cuts (Spaeth, Barber, even Izzy) are necessary to facilitate cap roomfor…

Mario Williams (DE) + Robert Meacham (WR)



-or-



Mario Williams (DE) + Reggie Wayne & Eddie Royal (WR)




Bears DraftStrategy

Having secured a premier DL and upgraded the WR corps, the Bears need to turn their prioritized attention in the draft to 1) improving their OL with one new starter, 2) adding a quality CB, 3) developing a future WR, and 4) getting depth especially at LB. Corey Graham is a must re-sign player for ST, backup NB, and to compete at SS with Major Wright. The Bears can no longer afford to sign a FA CB or S or LB with the money spent above.

Option A:
1^st[19] Mike Adams (OT)
2^nd[50] Chase Minnifield or Josh Norman or Stephon Gilmore or Trumaine Johnson (CB)
3^rd[74] Marvin McNutt or Brian Quick or Stephen Hill or Marvin Jones (WR)
3^rd[80] Audie Cole or Keenan Robinson or Nigel Bradham or Bobby Wagner (OLB)
4^th[111] Winston Guy, Jr. or Antonio Allen or Kelcie McCray (S)
5^th-7^th BPA

Option B:
1^st[19] David DeCastro or Cordy Glenn (OG)
2^nd[50] Chase Minnifield or Josh Norman or Stephon Gilmore or Trumaine Johnson (CB)
3^rd[74] Marvin McNutt or Brian Quick or Stephen Hill or Marvin Jones (WR)
3^rd[80] Audie Cole or Keenan Robinson or Nigel Bradham or Bobby Wagner (OLB)
4^th[111] Winston Guy, Jr. or Antonio Allen or Kelcie McCray (S)
5^th-7^th BPA


Option C:
{Bearstrade down in 1st to the mid-20s & secure another 3^rd roundpick}
1^st[25] Peter Konz (OC)
2^nd[50] Chase Minnifield or Josh Norman or Stephon Gilmore or Trumaine Johnson (CB)
3^rd[74] Marvin McNutt or Brian Quick or Stephen Hill or Marvin Jones (WR)
3^rd[80] Audie Cole or Keenan Robinson or Nigel Bradham or Bobby Wagner (OLB)
3^rd[89] Matt McCants or NatePotter or Mitchell Schwartz or Bobbie Massie (OT)
4^th[111] Winston Guy, Jr. or Antonio Allen or Kelcie McCray (S)
5^th-7^th BPA

Obviously I’m advocating a “BPA at OL in the 1^st round”scenario here. We all know that there’s no other WR besides Blackmon—who is well out of reach—that would easily start in 2012. The only other non-OL players I can foresee starting for us right away and who would be possibly available/worth a mid-to-late 1^st round pick are:

Dre Kirkpatrick (CB)
Mark Barron (SS)
Zach Brown (OLB)

My 2 cents for discussion right or wrong…

Well, I will say this. This was a well thought out analysis by you, MP, and for that, you are to be appreciated. This is actually similar to something I wrote about a month ago about it being the Bears time for choosing which direction they, as a franchise, want to go in. The only difference in what you wrote and what I did was that I told mine in the form of a story and almost like a speech, while you made yours out in outline form.

Now, let's cut to dissecting this baby!

You were preaching to the choir as far as I'm concerned on most of this. I think we have the worst offensive line in football right now and I don't think there's any question about it. That has to be the priority in the draft. Preferably, like you, we need to get a LT at the 19th overall pick, and I think Mike Adams is precisely the man for the job. He's big. He's physical. He's the type of player Mike Tice loves to have on his offensive lines. But if all else fails and both Martin and Adams are gone by the time we draft, then I think we need to consider going for someone like Konz at OC or Cordy Glenn at OG/OT. The nice thing about Glenn is that he is a versatile athlete on the line who can play any position because of his size and strength. In that case, he might prove to be our best bet for someone to draft, but keep in mind that his natural position is OG.

Where I disagree with you is on the issue of a WR. We really need to sign a marquis wide receiver if it's at all possible. My preference in Colston because he's 6'4", has had relatively few injuries in his career, is younger than Vincent Jackson, doesn't have the rap sheet of PED substance violation that Jackson has, and would come less expensively than Jackson. If, however, we cannot ascertain Colston and someone like Eddie Royal, than plan B would be to go after Robert Meachem. I still think that, regardless, you go after Eddie Royal hard and heavy because and Cutler have real chemistry together from their days in Denver.

I agree 100% with you regarding the DE's. Signing either Mario Williams or Cliff Avril should be something the Bears place a high priority on doing since we have a weak pass rush. We have a good start in terms of a solid, stable defensive line, with a good line interior with Paea, Okoye, and Melton, and one of the most ferocious LDEs in the game in Julius Peppers. We're only one piece away from having a devastating pass rush since the three techniques have been addressed and the other five technique has been in place for two years.

Cornerback is something else we should look into. That won't be too hard to do, since you can either rely on the draft or free agency to address the issue. In fact, a name you have probably been hearing about lately on this forum is Kansas City's Brandon Carr. He was their best CB for the past few years, and he is a free agent as of right now. It's been said that he would fit nicely into the Bears' Cover Two scheme. But if he isn't available, I would definitely look at addressing the issue in the middle rounds.

Originally Posted by MPBears68

Dags,

We see pretty eye-to-eye on this whole issue. The more I see it, adding a starter/impact player on BOTH lines is the safest and wisest way to improve the whole team. I'm not saying that we don't need WR help--obviously we do--I'm merely strategizing on how best to do all that given that resources are never unlimited in terms of draft picks and cap space. This doesn't amount to a hill of beans if MWill/Avril don't make it to FA but it seems quite plausible that at least one of them may with the salary cap issues Houston and Detroit are facing.

There are no DE's available to us in the draft that could have that kind of impact. Couples will be long gone by ~ #19 and Ingram/Mercilus have question marks about them that make them less than obvious "safe" choices. Those have been well fleshed out on these boards. They are both viable options if the FA plan falls through, but that is a less desirable route.

As far as OL goes, Free Agency doesn't hold out much in the way of efficient/affordable upgrades as we have all discussed. It is possible, but doesn't appear likely for the reasons I mentioned. And it so happens that round 1 of the draft has 4 OL players (Adams, Glenn, DeCastro, & Konz) who look likely at this time to be available into or even well into the double digits that WILL help us. Any one of them projects as an immediate starter/upgrade and all of them carry grades of 7.0 or higher from NFPost (DeCastro has an 8.5 and is least likely to fall as of right now). Adams would upgrade OT directly and the others would upgrade another spot allowing at least some intra-squad competition for Webb, which I think we all agree is minimally necessary.

I'm with you on WR too but don't have the cap nuance knowledge in detail to know just how much we could afford in addition to MWill/Avril. I would also like to have one of the "marqui" WRs as well and I think Colston is the best of the bunch in terms of his blend of experience, size, speed, and likely price tag. I just don't think (or even know) if we could afford both. I kind of doubt it with the money we are going to need to use on our own FAs, new draftees, and the fact that we will need to fit a backup QB in there somehow as well. My financial compromise is Meacham who is still 6' 2" and darned fast, but hasn't yet reached that "star" level that would command a huge price tag. Royal is a guy that Soulman touted and he makes a lot of sense given his history with Cutler, Knox's injury situation, and the fact that he's gotta want out of Denver since his skillset can't be maximized in the Tebow offense. I'm all for it if cap-space permits.

Likewise, I would like to add a FA DB (prob a CB) but I'm just assuming the money wouldn't be there in the above scenario. Brandon Carr would be the best cover 2 option out there but KC has TONS of cap space and the chance that either he or Bowe is let go by the Chiefs is remote because of it. If someone else (Marshall, Thomas, etc.) is available and affordable then great, but I mocked it the way I did assuming that it just wasn't possible monetarily. That's why I have us going after whoever is BPA at CB for our system in round 2 rather than in 3 or 4 hoping to snag a CB who could start rather than just a depth guy. Bowman is a goner and Jennings probably will be too so we have no starting CB at all right now opposite Tillman. I'd be ok with a rookie 2nd rounder starting if we had a fierce pass rush to help him out...it's a risk worth taking in our scheme IMO.

I think DE will have to be addressed in free agency, too, MP. I posted in another thread how there are just so many damn question marks surrounding who are projected to go in the first round. First, let's start with Quentin Coples. His ego got the best of his this season and his statistics suffered. He loafs, something that Rod Marinelli would never tolerate. He has a bad motor. When he's motivated, he's good, however. Then you have Melvin Ingram and Courtney Upshaw. The knock on them is that they are both undersized and would only really be effective at the five-technique position in a 3-4 set, which the Bears do not use. Lastly, you have Whitney Mercilis, who had the best year of all of the first round DEs, but the question on him is whether or not his last year at Illinois was a fluke or the real him because before that, he really didn't put up good stats. What choice does that leave us with? Well, that means that we will almost certainly have to go into free agency to find a DE worth his weight. That leaves us with Mario Williams and Cliff Avril. The only way Avril's asking price ever gets to over $10,000,000 is if Detroit applies the franchise tag label on him. However, they are in salary cap hell right now in much the same way that the Chicago Blackhawks were after they won the Stanley Cup in 2010. I doubt seriously that Avril gets FT'ed, and we will see him on the open market. Then you have Mario WIlliams, who is probably in the top five DE's in the league right now easily, probably in the top three along with Peppers and Jared Allen. He will be considerably more expensive than Avril, but if we choose to not go for either Vincent Jackson or Marques Colston to play wide receiver for us, we will have an easier time signing someone like him to come in and complete the last piece to the puzzle for our defensive line. Just imagine having your five-technique DEs being guys like Julius Peppers and Mario Williams!

You know, the part about the WR is starting to intrigue me a lot here. There are just so many damn possibilities this offseason that simply weren't there this time last year. I have essentially written off Vincent Jackson for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is his past issues with PEDs. He damages the integrity of the game, and therefore I don't want him on the Bears. As far as Colston goes, that could be interesting, because he should be going for considerably less than Jackson, though he certainly won't come cheaply. But, as I stated in another thread, I'm starting to like the idea of signing Robert Meachem and have him be our number one receiver. He's 6'2", is fast, has good hands, and just hasn't been given his due in New Orleans to properly assert himself as a dominant WR. I can tell you from his playing days at my school, the University of Tennessee, that he was an All-American and a really special player. He could run good routes from my perspective, and he set the school record for receiving yards in a single seasons with over 1,200. If he comes to Chicago, I can see him becoming a lot like Brandon Marshall, only he is more level-headed than Marshall. I'm really not high on the prospect of signing Reggie Wayne because of his lack of size and age.

The only thing I am really going to say about DB is that getting a FS/SS in free agency would be a cinch, while doing the same with a CB will prove more costly. I would love to get Brandon Carr, but you're right in mentioning something that I hadn't thought of: Kansas City has a virtual bottomless cauldron of salary cap wiggle room to spare, thus giving them ammunition to re-sign him should Carr want to return to the Chiefs. Most likely, though, we will probably devote the third or fourth round to drafting a player to come in and play CB.

Whatever happened with signing Meachem? Mario Williams?

Originally Posted by WindyCity

1. I do not think we can afford to sign Williams he would take up 80% of our available cap space.

2. Meachem for me is only an option if we decide to draft a WR in the 1st round. I do not think he can carry a WR core on his own.

Then, here's what happens. We will have two first round picks. We draft Adams or someone on the offensive line at #19, and then trade up our second pick to the late first round and draft Mercilis. I'd rather have a risky proposition coming out of the first round at DE than a second or third round DE who probably can't rush the passer.