Thread: Receiver Roulette; Do We Spin The Wheel on One of These Guys?

Receiver Roulette, Part I


Five top level wide-outs set to hit the market Andrew Brandt

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Print This February 16, 2012, 06:01 AM EST

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The longest offseason in major professional sports has begun. While we wait for the next edition of “As Peyton Turns,” let’s examine a high-profile position group – wide receiver – that offers a substantial amount of talent. Among the group, five upper-tier players – Wes Welker, Vincent Jackson, DeSean Jackson, Marques Colston and Dwayne Bowe – are set to receive the Franchise Tag ("Tag")or hit the open market. Let's examine:


Wes Welker

My sense is Brady will continue to have his favorite wide receiver on the Patriots.


Welker had a remarkable 2011 season (122 receptions, 1569 yards, 9 touchdowns) despite the disappointment of his last play. Regardless, his rapport with Tom Brady and prolific work product in New England – 554 receptions in five seasons – speaks for him being retained.


My sense is Welker will return to the Patriots, whether via a long-term deal or the Tag. Bill Belichick had long coveted Welker when he played for Miami and the Patriots will be competitive with Welker as long as his contract demands are not astronomical. The Tag number for wide receivers is projected to be around $9.4 million and would represent a substantial increase for Welker, who earned $2.5 million last season.

Prediction: a deal gets done with the Patriots.


Vincent Jackson

The contentious relationship between Chargers general manager A.J. Smith and Jackson may finally end. In 2010 as a Restricted Free Agent – due to the uncapped rules in place – Jackson held out most of the season. Smith, who relishes a good battle with a player, responded by placing Jackson on the roster exempt list, suspended him three games and reduced the $3.7 million tender to the minimum – $583,000, prorated to $171,000 for the balance of the season.


In 2011, Jackson unhappily received the Tag once the lockout ended (if one can be unhappy earning $11.4 million). To tag him again in 2012, Jackson would receive $13.8 million – 120% of last year's salary – and considerably more than the $9.4 million Tag number for receivers. Prediction: the Chargers are prepared to move on from Jackson, who is said to be seeking a 5-year $50 million deal (aren’t we all?).


DeSean Jackson

After ending his training camp holdout, Jackson arrived in July with an expectation of being compensated for outperforming a contract that paid $600,000 in 2011. That new deal never arrived, and Jackson watched as the Eagles spent cash freely on big tickets such as Nnamdi Asomugha and Michael Vick as well as mid-tier players such as Vince Young, Ronnie Brown and Steve Smith.


Jackson – admittedly distracted by his contract situation – was marred by inconsistency all season. The Eagles thus find themselves in a precarious position. Jackson's big-play potential is undeniable yet his attitude, slight build, and concussion history are mitigating factors for a long-term deal. Also, Jackson's view of his value is in a different sphere than that of the Eagles front office. Prediction: the Tag, while the Eagles subtly let teams know Jackson can be had for an attractive offer.


Marques Colston

Colston, a 7th round pick out of Hofstra in 2006, has been pure treasure for the Saints, topping 70 catches, 1000 yards and 7 touchdowns in each of the last three seasons.


Colston’s stay in New Orleans may be directly related to that of his quarterback Drew Brees. The Saints are in heavy negotiations with Brees and if they cannot secure him by March 5th they will certainly use their Tag.
The team may then be forced to choose between Colston or Pro Bowl guard Carl Nicks, also set to become a free agent. Ultimately, with other priorities, a talented stable of receivers and concerns about Colston’s balky knee may rule the Saints decision. Prediction: the Saints let Colston enter the market.


Dwayne Bowe

Bowe followed up his breakout 2010 season (72 catches, 1162 yards, and 15 touchdowns) with a solid performance in 2011, despite a carousel of quarterbacks slinging the ball his way.


The Chiefs have made it known that retaining Bowe and cornerback Brandon Carr are their priorities. One player will likely receive the Tag; the other a long-term deal. With Bowe naturally wanting a contract reflective of the market set by Santonio Holmes – five years, $45 million, $24 million guaranteed – the Chiefs might prefer to go year-to-year with Bowe, applying the Tag. Prediction: Bowe receives the Tag.



Stay tuned, more top players in position groups to come.
Follow me on Twitter at adbrandt.

DeSean has been tagged, Wallace has been tendered. too bad the poison pill isn't available...

Well so far here's the inventory of top WR's who may of may not his FA. Surprisingly enough Eddie Royal's name isn't there which to me says he's still under the radar and won't cost an arm and a leg to sign. The day FA opens I'd shoot his agent a reasonable offer to hook up with Cutler again and put some incentive clauses in their to cover the contingencies of him having a real breakout year again. So that's our under approach to WR. Basically a slot guy.

Now we still have to pick up our over guy. The one who will for all intents and purposes be, or at least attempt to be, a #1 guy until we can draft and develop one. Hoping that it's not too much of a burden to put on Darryl Drake to actually coach a guy like that to a certain degree of success. So who do we target.

I've always been a Good, Better, Best type of shopper and I've always found that Good is simply a price oriented item. Something you need to have to stay competitive with other vendors. Best is always nice but is it worth the extra cost? How much is frills you don't really need and basically can it do that much more of what you need it to do than Better.

I don't know but to me Better was always the highest value choice and that's what I think the Bears should be looking at. We have some cash to spend and some cap room so in spending it where do we get the biggest bang for the buck. What or who gives us the best chance of getting back into the championship race again.

If we decide on a top tier player of those likely to be available I'd prefer Colston provided his knee is sound. I don't know if we get to examine the good before we bid on them but I would certainly do it if we could. My reason here is that he has the size we're looking for and he's been the most consistent receiver of the bunch year in and year out. So he's my top tier pick is he's healthy and not ridiculously priced.

Now for the second tier guys where I believe the real value is. The two Colts guy interest me most although I don't know what Garcon is expecting if he turned down $35 mil. Don't know if he'd do any better because I think that too high for him as he sits today. I'd rather take Reggie Wayne who isn't quite as tall as we'd like, but still a very good WR, and sign him to a two year deal that may not cost anymore than what Garcon is looking for per year. In the meantime we draft another big body WR early and start bringing him up slowly using him where he seems to show up best.

I know I wouldn't trade for DeSean, not crazy about the idea of giving up a first for Wallace, and I really don't want Johnson all that much but if we go that way we do. Meachem would be the guy I'd be talking with in addition to Wayne. We really don't know all of what he's capable of because he's been used in a very limited manner in NO. The positive here is that he's only 25 and more or less meets the needs for a younger, taller WR that Jay would like to have. Even if Meachem turns out to be a downfield type of guy we have a QB with the arm to take advantage of that.

So, if I was doing something to upgrade now and sign players with upside I'd get Royal and Meachem. Royal is a great underneath guy who's tough enough and fearless enough to go over the middle too. Bennett is Cutler's clutch go to guy, his Hines Ward, and Meachem is the bigger taller guy we're looking for. So with the youth and potential of Royal and Meachem we may be able to bypass the need to take a WR as early as the first or second rounds. This class is deep enough that their will still be talent a round or two later.

Well that's my 2 cents on it. Royal, Meachem and Wayne are the guys I'd be looking at hardest with a passing thought to Colston too.

Originally Posted by motownbear

my two favorites are Wallace and bowe and both would cost picks to get

Then I like vj but he will cost a fortune and no I won't complain if we got him cause the offense always draws the shortest straw in Chicago

If we went with the lower tier guys my favorite is garçon but wth do u pay him he refused 25 mil from the colts already

He turned down $35 mil on a 5 year deal the Colts offered him. He'd be nice to pickup but not for that price. I doubt Bowe will see free agency at all. At the very least KC will throw a tag on him by Monday if they can't sign him. Wallace for a first is iffy. I'd be a lot happier if we could work out a deal with Pitt for less but if we did sign him and give up that first it wouldn't break my heart as long as we covered other bases in FA.

Originally Posted by Henry Burris

DeSean has been tagged, Wallace has been tendered. too bad the poison pill isn't available...

They'll try to trade DeSean now. I think we always knew Pitt would tender him at a 1st round pick level. Pitt is hurting cap-wise so Wallace should be easy enough to sign for the right price but I sure don't like trading away our first. A second I could live with but that first......ouch.