Is This a Soft FA Market?................

Are signs pointing to a soft free agent market?

With no mandatory spending requirements this year, teams may wait longer to sign “value free agents”. Jack Bechta

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Print This March 07, 2012, 04:00 PM EST

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The word in the agent community is that some fear a “soft free agency market”. Many agents I spoke to at the Combine and thereafter are not getting the feelers, sense of urgency and the secret handshake deals they have gotten in the past. Although this year’s free agency period starts March 13th, almost 10 days after it would normally begin, the action/deal-making at the Combine was lackluster at best.

The question now: Are these signs that we may experience quieter and more patient market than we have seen in the past? Or, will it be business as usual with an immediate flurry of signings for the top ten to twelve free agents with the second tier following about a week later?

The evidence to date says we may see less money spent this year than what we are used to seeing in the past.

Here are some reasons why it could potentially become a reality:

http://cdn.cloudfiles.mosso.com/c191...yg/Nnamdi2.jpgThe Eagles spent the big bucks to get Nnamdi Asomugha but didn't reap the benefits.

Last years’ cash splash by the Eagles did not result in a championship dividend. Owners and team presidents tend to look at the bottom line. Not to mention the ever lingering lessons from the Redskins over the last decade.

No existence of a mandatory minimum per team salary floor, which obligates each team to spend a minimum amount of their cap dollars. Let’s face it, some owners will spend only if they are forced to.

Franchise tags are a better value than what players/agents are looking for in the guaranteed components of a long-term deal. If a team can get a way with using the tag and buying time to wait and see how the market takes shape and save cash they will do it. (This one surely hits home doesn't it?)

I believe that as GMs and salary cap personnel become older and more experienced they also become more patient. The year 2012 marks only the 20th year of the salary cap framework which we have been working under. I believe the marketplace is becoming more efficient as time goes on. Furthermore, the media scrutiny of some bad free agent moves will shorten the career spans of front office execs which may make some gun shy.

There is yet to be a determination of this year’s cap increase. The front office people I spoke to said they were working off a flat cap scenario, meaning that they think there will be no increase in cap dollars. Thus, everyone is working conservatively and a little blind right now. However, the cap will go up, it always does. (Well if you count just $600k as going up I guess you're right but I'm sure you guys expected more. Funny thing is if there hadn't have been some creative accounting it would have declined about 5%)

Here is my favorite theory why we may see a more frugal free agency: All the NFL cap guys saw the movie Moneyball, and now think it’s their chance to speak up and make a big impact on the team (and impress their owners). This movie was their Jerry Maguire and their Top Gun. So maybe they are flexing their muscle trying to make their mark. One NFC team actually just hired an executive from the Oakland A’s organization that was a part of Billy Bean’s Moneyball team.

Great free agents will always get great contracts and there will always be a handful of teams who will consistently compete in the free agent market. However, with no sense of urgency to spend right now, most organizations will tap the breaks and keep their powder dry (aka: keep it in their pocket). (LOL. When do those guys have time to catch a movie? Sorry Jack but if you want value you re-sign your own players. They know your systems and you may get a hometown discount. But the other guys players will always cost you more. You agents see to that I'm sure)

Follow me on Twitter: @Jackbechta

This article appeared in the NFL on March 7th. A week before FA began. We're now through that first two week period he describes in his second paragraph. So what do you guys think. Has it been a soft FA market or not?

I think the point he makes regarding franchise tags is spot on. We're seeing more tags being used because it is less expensive to use the tag at least initially. It's true that the Bears will have to pay Matt Forte $7.74 mil for 2012 under his tag if a long term agreement isn't reached but that's about half of what they have been rumored to have offered as a guarantee and about 1/3 of what he's wants.

If they were to reach an agreement it's like that his upfront bonus would be at least that much now whereas his salary won't start being paid out until the season begins 6 months from now and then at the rate of $483,750 per week. Of course with interest rates less than 1% the amount gained isn't all that great anymore but it does help with immediate cash flow for some teams if the lease payments on the Gulfstream are coming due, LOL.

I do believe what he says about GN becoming more savvy as far as how they spend an even a raw rookie like Phil Emery came out of these two weeks looking pretty good. Although he may have gotten some coaching from Cliff Stein who's an old hand at this by now.

So what do you guys think. Was it a tightwad or free spending FA in general? Not just for the Bears.

Cashflow was pretty solid, it seemed. Mario Williams goes without saying, Carl Nicks got a fair bit of coin, and a lot of receivers got better money than their production has warranted.

mark anderson got 7 mil a year nuff said

Quote:

Originally Posted by motownbear

mark anderson got 7 mil a year nuff said

Good point motown.
Usually there are a couple of big name FA's but this year it seems that there have been a lot more of them with some teams overspending because they have the "Cap" $ to do so.
:smile: