Thread: Bears Could Have a Steal in Troy Left Tackle James Brown

Originally Posted by bearsinhouston

ok. I gotta say it. No one else is gonna. Is it just me or what? Every time I see that photo of him. he looks like he is trying to shake a big 'ol load out of his pants.

Well that's a visual I didn't exactly need tonight.

Originally Posted by soulman

Great post BB. Some guys need to look at the players on this list who were UDFA's. One used to play from the Bears (Weigmann) and has often been compared to Hilgy since they both came out of Iowa as UDFA's. If he hadn't been on the same team as Olin Kruetz he may still be a Bear.

At various times Clabo, Dahl, Lilja and Waters have all been mentioned as potential FA pickups for the Bears. All of these guys have been pro-bowl level performers at one time or another during their careers.

So would someone please explain to me the reason why signing James Brown as an UDFA makes one slim bit of difference in comparison to drafting him from the 5th round on. I'd love to hear the logic behind that!

There are over a half dozen guys on this list who have been pro-bowl or all-pro lineman and several guys many of us were "jonesing" for (Nicks, Clabo, Dahl, Gaither, Waters) last offseason or this.

Along with our two former first round picks we've got a bunch of former 5th - 7th round picks and UDFA's on our roster so why is it so many think these guys have NO CHANCE of ever becoming good NFL lineman.

I will agree, soul, that any player drafted at any point in the draft or signed as an UDFA has a chance of making it in the NFL. However, where I disagree with you is that most likely, the higher you draft a lineman, the more likely he will start and have a job when he enters his team's Training Camp or, for that matter, will succeed in the league at all. That's all I've been trying to say. I'm not saying that players drafted from the fifth round on down the list or signed as UDFAs don't stand a chance in hell of making it in the league. Rather, I'm stating that the probability of success is higher if the player(s) in question is/are closer to being elite level talents at the college level.

Originally Posted by Dagan81

I will agree, soul, that any player drafted at any point in the draft or signed as an UDFA has a chance of making it in the NFL. However, where I disagree with you is that most likely, the higher you draft a lineman, the more likely he will start and have a job when he enters his team's Training Camp or, for that matter, will succeed in the league at all. That's all I've been trying to say. I'm not saying that players drafted from the fifth round on down the list or signed as UDFAs don't stand a chance in hell of making it in the league. Rather, I'm stating that the probability of success is higher if the player(s) in question is/are closer to being elite level talents at the college level.

Yeah I would agree to that the closer any player is to an elite level in college the better his chances are as a pro. The issue here though is just how many "elite" lineman there are in any given draft? This year it would seem that there were only two, Kalil and DeCastro. After that the next was probably seen as they were described buy the scouts. Eventual starters with serviceable skills. Or in other words guys you could play and win with but not likely to be all-pro caliber players in the NFL.

My other thought would be this. Just like Sears marketing plan; good, better, best. All of the best prospects are gone very early in the draft, usually top 20 right. Then comes the better bunch in round two and last the good bunch in round three. Would you agree with this way of looking at it?

My thinking is that after round three their grades mean less than what kind of potential they have and how that fits into any given teams idea of an Olineman. Such as; even though he carries a higher grade the 340lb mauler may be passed over in favor of a 300lb athletic type with better speed by a team like Broncos who like smaller more athletic OG's for their zone blocking schemes. So they take a guy with a 7th round grade in the 5th because they like the way he fits their scheme and he's the top player on their board with those kind of skills.

Basically what I'm saying is that after the 3rd round you could pretty much throw a net over them. There just isn't that much difference in the skill level of player A over player B so teams look for "prospects" who will fit their scheme and develop them specifically for that scheme. So you have your Josh Beekman's who fail and maybe your Lance Louis's who don't. Then every once in a while you get a Carl Nicks or a Harvey Dahl out of the bunch and it's like getting the best prize in the cereal box.

The higher picks will always have an edge because the team has a greater investment in them. If two players come out of camp with relatively similar preseason grades the 2nd round pick will probably stick over the 6th round pick just because of where he was drafted even though his potential may not be as great. So that creates a supply of prospects with good upside to develop and those are the guys you see getting picked up when cuts are made. Make sense?

It would be one hell of a project and not one I have the time for but I'll wager you this. There are as many or more Olineman playing in the NFL who were drafted after the third round as there are who were drafted before the third round,especially OG's. It's just a numbers game Dags because even those guys with good talent tend to be drafted lower than other positions which are rated higher.

Well this is today's theorem on the topic anyway. Just sayin' so don't take offense at my analytical approach. I get paid to do that everyday of my life elsewhere and it's hard to shut it off.

Originally Posted by soulman

Yeah I would agree to that the closer any player is to an elite level in college the better his chances are as a pro. The issue here though is just how many "elite" lineman there are in any given draft? This year it would seem that there were only two, Kalil and DeCastro. After that the next was probably seen as they were described buy the scouts. Eventual starters with serviceable skills. Or in other words guys you could play and win with but not likely to be all-pro caliber players in the NFL.

My other thought would be this. Just like Sears marketing plan; good, better, best. All of the best prospects are gone very early in the draft, usually top 20 right. Then comes the better bunch in round two and last the good bunch in round three. Would you agree with this way of looking at it?

My thinking is that after round three their grades mean less than what kind of potential they have and how that fits into any given teams idea of an Olineman. Such as; even though he carries a higher grade the 340lb mauler may be passed over in favor of a 300lb athletic type with better speed by a team like Broncos who like smaller more athletic OG's for their zone blocking schemes. So they take a guy with a 7th round grade in the 5th because they like the way he fits their scheme and he's the top player on their board with those kind of skills.

Basically what I'm saying is that after the 3rd round you could pretty much throw a net over them. There just isn't that much difference in the skill level of player A over player B so teams look for "prospects" who will fit their scheme and develop them specifically for that scheme. So you have your Josh Beekman's who fail and maybe your Lance Louis's who don't. Then every once in a while you get a Carl Nicks or a Harvey Dahl out of the bunch and it's like getting the best prize in the cereal box.

The higher picks will always have an edge because the team has a greater investment in them. If two players come out of camp with relatively similar preseason grades the 2nd round pick will probably stick over the 6th round pick just because of where he was drafted even though his potential may not be as great. So that creates a supply of prospects with good upside to develop and those are the guys you see getting picked up when cuts are made. Make sense?

It would be one hell of a project and not one I have the time for but I'll wager you this. There are as many or more Olineman playing in the NFL who were drafted after the third round as there are who were drafted before the third round,especially OG's. It's just a numbers game Dags because even those guys with good talent tend to be drafted lower than other positions which are rated higher.

Well this is today's theorem on the topic anyway. Just sayin' so don't take offense at my analytical approach. I get paid to do that everyday of my life elsewhere and it's hard to shut it off.

Oh, no offense taken. I'm glad that we've finally hit some common ground on this issue because I knew that for some reason, I was not communicating my point of view to you as clearly as I should be. You're absolutely right, and I concur with you that offensive linemen, or any player in the draft for that matter, stand a much greater chance of breaking through if they get picked within the first two or three rounds. From the fourth round on through undrafted free agency, the concept of how players are drafted or signed complete changes. Basically, it's based on the best player available, especially in rounds five through seven and in undrafted free agency. In the fourth round this year, the Bears, in my opinion, found a diamond in the rough by picking an H-back in Evan Rodriguez to be used to both block and catch passes out in space similar to what you said about the way Jimmy Kleinsasser served as the H-back of the Vikings during the Mike Tice era in Minnesota. The reason he didn't go earlier in the draft is because he is undersized (I think he is either 6'1" or 6'3", can't remember which one) and possibly because of his off-the-field legal issues he's faced in his young life. However, past that round, the sixth and seventh rounds were solely based on best player available; Isaiah Frey, the Bears' sixth round pick, might make it as a corner back for the team, but the learning curve is going to be steep as he primarily played in a defense that was pure man-to-man in style. As far as Greg McCoy is concerned, though, he will make it as a special teams player only to help out Hester and Thomas in the kick return duties.

But I have to say this: I was really pleased to pick up James Brown as a backup offensive tackle. We got a steal on a guy who was a fourth or fifth round grade. The only thing I wish could have happened is maybe we could've picked up either another offensive tackle via the draft or, if that failed, take a defensive tackle to rotate in with Melton and Paea. My best guess on the latter of the two possible options is that Emery plans to pick up a defensive tackle in free agency; we could possibly see the return of Anthony Adams or Tommie Harris into the fold. As far as offensive tackles are concerned, there is the distinct possibility that there will be a competition in Training Camp at left tackle between Webb and Chris Williams. If Williams wins the position outright and Webb is relegated to being a swing tackle, then BANG! you have two backup offensive tackles, and many of our problems that ranged from the weakness at left tackle to the the depth at the offensive tackle positions will then be solved.

This is all conjecture, by the way. Soul, I can match you any day in analyzing situations. What you don't know about me is that not only do I have bipolar disorder, I also suffer from clinical OCD. Back in the 1990s when I was a preteen and well into my teenage years, I would pull out all of my dad's Street and Smith Baseball Digests off the shelf in the den that ranged in order from 1976 through 1994 and memorize entire lines of statistics and all-time records recorded by players. I taught myself how to calculate batting averages, slugging percentages, ERAs, slugging percentages, and mastered the art of guesstimating how many home runs, base hits, and RBIs certain players would have had if they had been injured by simply calculating total number of home runs, hits, and RBIs the individual player put up in a given year, then taking the total number of at-bats and dividing them by the total number of home runs to give me a roundabout answer. I found great joy in doing this for some odd reason, perhaps because of my OCD. I would spend hours doing these tasks in on the couch of the den downstairs as opposed to going out and playing with friends. I played baseball, and baseball is my favorite sport; I lived and breathed it, much as I do today. Football is a more recent thing for me, as the first football team I ever followed was the the University of Tennessee Volunteers back in 1989. My first hero was running back Chuck Webb. It absolutely killed me when he prematurely ended his career as a sophomore because of a torn ACL. I don't know if I still have the picture I drew of number 44, but he and Peyton Manning remain my two favorite Tennessee players that I've watched go through the program over the 23 years that I have been watching them.

Anyway, I hope I didn't just totally bore the shit out of you with all that mumbo jumbo. I, again, am glad that we finally found some common ground on the issue of the offensive line. It bothered me that you appeared at least on the surface to be upset, though you claim that you weren't.

Yeah, it's all kind of subjective anyway as far how any team views a certain player, even in round one. I think with what we know now the Bears would not have drafted Coples even if was still on the board at #19. He didn't fit what they were looking for as far as a guy with a high motor and the kind of quickness and instincts McClellin plays with even though Cople carried a higher ranking.

In the same vein it's pretty apparent that they loved Michael Floyd but knew they couldn't take him in one so they take Jeffery in two who is pretty much the same type of receiver but arguably there were players ranked higher overall than he was at that point. They just weren't ranked higher on the Bears board.

That may have been the way it was with James Brown. It's entirely possible he carried a mid round grade (I don't buy Kipers evaluation of him either) overall but because of that "tweener" build of his teams had others ranked higher on their boards so he goes unpicked and we grab him pronto. I'm not a Mel Kiper fan but I admit the man isn't a total idiot. Maybe it was something he saw or maybe something a scout he trusts to told him about Brown made him sit up and take notice. In another couple if years we'll know whether or not we got a steal but where we took him means nothing anymore. Maybe because he went undrafted it will light a fire under him and he'll want to show that he should have been.

You just know there has to be a huge chess game going on between teams over these guys. Decisions to be made in the last couple of rounds as to whether to draft a guy or try to sign him in FA. My guess is that the reason the Bear drafted McCoy and chose to attempt to get Brown as an UDFA are staring right at us from the roster. They're nos. #23 and #73. Think about for a minute. OK, times up LOL.

Why would and All American KR standout choose the Bears to sign with as an UDFA. To get an up close and personal look at Hester's moves? He's gotta know that he's not likely to take Hester's job from him that we also signed Weems and Thomas in FA so as a rookie that's a very tall order to climb up that depth chart as a return man. We also have an excellent NB in DJ Moore which is a spot an undersized CB would probably get slotted as in the NFL. Bottom line? Emery wanted the kid, knew he'd never convince him to sign a FA deal with us so he drafted him.

James Brown on the other hand get a call from the Bears and asks his agent whether or not it's a good idea for him to go with the Bears and his agent can't get a signing pen in his hand fast enough. He's telling the kid James do you realize they have the worst LT in the NFL in Chicago? Isn't that where you played in college son? Hell yes you should sign with them. They need OT's, you are one and they're hiring. So stop asking stupid questions and just pickup the fucking pen and sign the contract. Geez boy were you standing behind the door the day brains got passed out?

There ya' go. Best explantion I can give you as to why we would have drafted McCoy and chose to wait on Brown to sign as a FA. Not a for sure but it makes and awful lot of sense doesn't it?

Originally Posted by Bipolar Bear

FYI, there are some very solid & really good UDFA/late round picks that happen to play O-line & start in the NFL:

5th Round
Chris Kuper
David Diehl
Carl Nicks
Jared Gaither

6th Round
Matt Birk
Chris Myers
Barry Richardson

7th Round
Todd McClure
Kyle Kosier
Scott Wells
Eugene Amano

Undrafted
Tyson Clabo
Jeff Saturday
Ryan Lilja
Casey Weigmann
Brian Waters
Jason Peters
Harvey Dahl

In fact, if you go around and look at each team there is usually 1 starter that was a late round pick or an UDFA. It's not unusual for teams to develop late round picks (especially O-linemen) into starters. You could also go around and see plenty of early round busts along the O-line as well. It's a very difficult position to draft and with a great O-line coach in Tice it's not the worst idea in the world to try and maintain some stability & develop our own players. It may suck in the short-term, but it could pay off in the long run.

Several points to this. what's the ratio of higher drafted to lower drafted? Whats the quality difference? Not arguing, just wondering. Going on, I do want some stability on this line, but regardless of position, if you can upgrade, you do it. Hell, look at the shit they threw together without training camp last year, and Cutler was at least finally able to scramble some, rather than get hit. But, also, we all know these players aren't as talented as actually good offensive lines in the NFL, so continuity amongst mediocre players is just time killing.

Originally Posted by Henry Burris

Several points to this. what's the ratio of higher drafted to lower drafted? Whats the quality difference? Not arguing, just wondering. Going on, I do want some stability on this line, but regardless of position, if you can upgrade, you do it. Hell, look at the shit they threw together without training camp last year, and Cutler was at least finally able to scramble some, rather than get hit. But, also, we all know these players aren't as talented as actually good offensive lines in the NFL, so continuity amongst mediocre players is just time killing.

I agree with you Henry but in a couple of cases all we can do now is kill time until we have another offseason to get a shot at replacing them. I think once this year is out besides Garza two positions will stabilize and two will still need to be upgraded.

That ratio would be really difficult to determine with researching where every starting NFL lineman was drafted and what his grade or ranking is. But even from this we can tell one simple thing. Most of these guys are OG's or OC's so I think it's safe to say that fewer OT prospects who develop into good NFL players come from the bottom half of the draft.

I think even JA realized that he wasn't gonna get good OT's unless he drafted them high. CWill has a reach based on need but Carimi went where he should have. Webb may have been rated higher if he'd come out of a major college program but even at that he'd no first round pick. If he didn't have Tice championing his cause I doubt he'd still be around.

I still think the best idea is to at least see whether or not CWill is a better option by giving him reps there in camp. He and Webb will need to go up against Pep one on one so that should separate the two almost immediately. We drafted CWill to be a LT and despite the fact that he was beginning to look pretty good as an OG before we extend him we need to find out whether we're doing it as a LT or a LG.