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Dan Pompei; Bears Appear Not To Value Forte as High as Others..............
Bears appear to have leverage in money battle with Forte
Though he compares favorably with top backs, it appears club doesn't value him comparably
 Matt Forte picks up a first down past the Chargers' Eric Weddle during the first quarter at Soldier Field. (Jose M. Osorio/Tribune Photo / May 19, 2012)
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Dan Pompei On the NFL 3:47 p.m. CDT, May 19, 2012
Sometimes it seems the closer the Bears get to training camp, the further they are from signing Matt Forte to a new contract.
In fairness, negotiations have been hush-hush, so we really don't know where the sides are. But the outward signs are not optimistic.
With help from four personnel men, a team negotiator and a respected player agent, the Tribune examined the Forte dilemma, and how it could be solved.
How Forte stacks up
To determine how NFL teams evaluate Forte, I asked four front office men to rank the top running backs. For purposes of salary slotting, teams often will place players in tiers.
A "blue" player is a difference maker. A "red-plus" player is a notch below a difference maker and a notch higher than above average.
Here are the blue running backs:
1. Adrian Peterson, Vikings: He clearly is the best, assuming he can come back from his torn ACL.
2. Chris Johnson, Titans: He needs to have a bounce back season to stay in this category.
3. Arian Foster, Texans: This power runner gives the Texans an identity and is a new entrant into the elite category.
Here are the red-plus running backs:
5. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jaguars: "He has been doing it forever behind a so-so offensive line," an AFC front office man said.
6. Ray Rice, Ravens: Rice's all around-game elevates his value.
7. Forte: 7. An NFC personnel man pointed out if career numbers alone defined Forte, he might not compare favorably to some of the top backs. But he also pointed out he does a lot for the Bears.
Said another front office man: "Forte can do everything. That's why I like him. He doesn't have any weaknesses. You wish he were more physical at times and played more to his size (6 feet 2, 218 pounds), but he's very athletic and so well rounded."
8. LeSean McCoy, Eagles: "He's more elusive than Forte, a better space player and he gives you more big plays," a personnel director said. "He is electric. Forte doesn't create on his own as much. But he has more size and power. Both have good vision, good hands. McCoy is faster and scares you more in the open field. It's a tossup between them as to who you rather would have."
9. Frank Gore, 49ers: He has a career rushing average of 4.7 yards, and he is a fine receiver.
10. Steven Jackson, Rams: He has had seven straight 1,000 yard rushing seasons, playing for mostly bad teams, but is "descending," at 29 in July according to one personnel director.
11. Marshawn Lynch, Seahawks: He has a nice combination of power and burst, and can attack a defense inside or outside.
What other backs make
When teams and agents negotiate deals, they look for comparable players' contracts. Now that we have established where Forte ranks as a player, we can look at what his peers make.
Player … Years … Avg./year … Guarantee
1. Peterson … 7 … $14.2M … $36M
2. Johnson … 6 … $13.5M … $30M
3. McCoy … 5 … $7.6M … $20.7M
4. Foster … 5 … $8.7M … $20.75M
5. Jackson … 6 … $8.62M … $20.5M
6. Williams … 5 … $8.6M … $21M
7. Jones-Drew … 5 … $7.63M … $17.45M
8. Lynch … 4 … $7.5M … $17M
There are four deals that have particular significance for Forte.
1. The Panthers signed Williams last July to a deal that is a little out of whack from the rest of the market. Scouts who spoke with the Tribune rated him a "red" player, yet he is paid like a borderline red-plus and blue player.
His contract has been toxic in the Forte negotiations.
2. On Thursday the Eagles set a new bar for red-plus running backs such as McCoy. Forte's agent, Adisa Bakari, is likely to set this contract as his new target for Forte. It should be noted McCoy is 21/2 years younger than Forte (26).
3. In 2009, Jones-Drew signed a five-year extension with an average per year of $7.63 million and $17.45 million in guarantees. The Bears might want a similar deal for Forte.
But with three years remaining on the contract, Jones-Drew has been a no-show for offseason activities because he wants a new contract. His agent? Bakari.
4. Rice may be the running back whose value is most similar to Forte's. And like Forte, he has the franchise tag.
It is believed he is seeking $10 million per year, and he is not likely to get it from the Ravens.
Complicating factors
Here are the primary reasons Forte does not have new paper:
-- The franchise tag: From a financial perspective, it might make more sense for the Bears to franchise Forte in 2012 at $7.7 million and in 2013 at $9.24 million (120 percent of the 2012 franchise number) than it does to sign him to a five- or six-year deal worth say, an average of $9 million per year with more than $20 million guaranteed.
After two years of using the tag, the Bears could decide to part ways with Forte, who will be 28 then, or they could try to sign him to a longer contract at that point. He would be a free agent without strings.
But from a locker room perspective, it probably makes more sense to reward a loyal soldier now.
-- Bears missed window of opportunity: The time to sign Forte was last offseason, but the Bears probably undervalued him then. It is believed they offered him a little more than $6 million per year.
Since that time, Forte's price has gone up in part because he had a career year and because the deals of Williams, Foster and McCoy, among others, have driven up the market.
If the Bears had offered $7.5 per year last summer, it's possible Forte would be under contract now.
-- Value of the position: Teams value running backs differently. Some believe they are fairly interchangeable and replaceable, even if they are gifted, and that the running game is more about mentality than ability. Some don't trust running backs past their 29th birthday, given the history of short careers.
"Every team has a different scheme, style, a different home field and value for the position and subsequently the individual," said a front office man who negotiates contracts for his team.
The franchise of Red Grange, Bronko Nagurski, George McAfee, Gale Sayers and Walter Payton, oddly enough, apparently does not value running backs as much as some franchises.
Forte and Bakari were hoping the general manager changeover from Jerry Angelo to Phil Emery would change this. But given the continued stalemate, it appears little has changed in how the Bears view Forte's value.
Finding middle ground
What has become clear: Forte seemingly is not going to get all he wants from the Bears. And if they get Forte to sign a long-term deal, they likely are going to have to give more than they think he's worth.
I asked a respected player agent what he thought a fair deal for Forte would be. He said he would agree to a five-year contract with an average per year of $8 million, a three-year average per year of $8.5 million and $19.5 million in guarantees.
The team negotiator gave me similar numbers when asked for a fair contract for Forte, but indicated he would be willing to go as high as $8.5 million on the average per year with $20 million guaranteed. That would put the total potential value at $42.5 million.
It is believed Bakari was asking for $8.5 per year before the McCoy deal. That may be more than the Bears are willing to pay.
In the absence of a mutual compromise, the franchise tag may have to do.
dpompei@tribune.com
Twitter @danpompei
I'm getting to that age where a lifetime warranty just doesn't mean as much to me anymore as an afternoon nap. 
Honey Badger Don't Care. Honey Badger Don't Give a Shit.
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The DeAngelo Williams contract really has created a mess in determining the value of RBs. Stupid Panthers.
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This may well be closest we'll get to having an understanding of the roadblocks to getting Forte signed.
What I keyed on was Pompei's comment that had the Bears come along with an offer that averaged $7.5 per year and guaranteed $17-$18mil last summer, which is about where I think they are now, then this could probably been wrapped up then. But for whatever reason JA or Phillips or both or whoever thought they had Forte over a barrel and decided to shoot him a "lowball" offer. We all thought that was stupid then and I doubt any of us have changed our minds.
Forte said "no deal", played out his contract and told anyone who would listen that the price would only go up, not down an he was spot on. Now these deals are in the $8-$8.5 mil range and if the Bears are only offering $7.5 mil they're still under the market aren't they. Or are they?
I've been looking at all of these contracts over the past 24 hours and here's the conclusion I've come to. Past the amount guaranteed which usually 100% paid out within the first three years of the deal or sooner, nothing much is certain for these guys. In every single instance the team could cut the player after year three with zero in the way of a "dead money" cap hit and in most cases actually experience a cap savings of a mil or two or far more. In any event with a 4th year salary of $10 mil you just know McCoy's deal will be renegotiated for 2015 and beyond. His current deal is really a three year contract with a club option to renegotiate or let him go.
So who gives a damn what happens or doesn't happen after the guarantee is paid? The agent? Does he get more than just bragging rights on the deal. Does he receive his entire commission on the contract now based on it's total value while his guy has to wait 4, 5 or even six years to collect all of his money IF he ever does. And that's highly doubtful.
A five year contract for $45 mil with roughly $21 mil guaranteed in the first three years averages $7 mil per year now and $12 mil per year over the last two years for an 5 year average of $9 mil per year. Does anyone here really believe that player will see all $24 mil during those last two years? If so step right over here, I have some beautiful Colorado beachfront property for sale cheap. It's not gonna happen folks. That part of those contracts is written in erasable ink with full intention that it will be written over.
No matter what the final figures say unless these guys stay at the very top of their game and avoid injury most of these guys may see $30 mil give or take 10% out of these deals. Some even less if injuries end or diminish promising careers. So if the Bears are offering Matt Forte a $17 mil guarantee that pays out over three years then they are truly under market BUT if what they decided to do is to offer him a deal that pays out that same $17 mil (which is the equivalent of two years franchise tags) over the next two seasons he's making $8.5 mil per year on average over years one and two and if the total deal is for $32 mil over 4 years that's an average of $8 mil per year over the life of the deal and he may be one guy who will actually see 100% of that money.
We don't know what the deal is but it seems to me that if they intend to tag him for two years anyway why not just go ahead and guarantee him that money now paid out in salary in 2012 and 2013. Then a salary of $7.5 mil per year in 2014-2015. If he gets hurt or his productivity falls the can cut him anytime after 2013 and it costs them zilch in hard dollars or cap dollars. If he finishes the deal as agreed upon Matt gets his $8 mil per year and the Bears real risk without recourse is only $17 mil. That's a fair deal for both parties and it's ultra competitive with any other offer out there.
Last edited by soulman; 05-19-2012 at 08:34 PM.
I'm getting to that age where a lifetime warranty just doesn't mean as much to me anymore as an afternoon nap. Honey Badger Don't Care. Honey Badger Don't Give a Shit.
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Originally Posted by
soulman 
This may well be closest we'll get to having an understanding of the roadblocks to getting Forte signed.
What I keyed on was Pompei's comment that had the Bears come along with an offer that averaged $7.5 per year and guaranteed $17-$18mil last summer, which is about where I think they are now, then this could probably been wrapped up then. But for whatever reason JA or Phillips or both or whoever thought they had Forte over a barrel and decided to shoot him a "lowball" offer. We all thought that was stupid then and I doubt any of us have changed our minds.
Forte said "no deal", played out his contract and told anyone who would listen that the price would only go up, not down an he was spot on. Now these deals are in the $8-$8.5 mil range and if the Bears are only offering $7.5 mil they're still under the market aren't they. Or are they?
I've been looking at all of these contracts over the past 24 hours and here's the conclusion I've come to. Past the amount guaranteed which usually 100% paid out within the first three years of the deal or sooner, nothing much is certain for these guys. In every single instance the team could cut the player after year three with zero in the way of a "dead money" cap hit and in most cases actually experience a cap savings of a mil or two or far more. In any event with a 4th year salary of $10 mil you just know McCoy's deal will be renegotiated for 2015 and beyond. His current deal is really a three year contract with a club option to renegotiate or let him go.
So who gives a damn what happens or doesn't happen after the guarantee is paid? The agent? Does he get more than just bragging rights on the deal. Does he receive his entire commission on the contract now based on it's total value while his guy has to wait 4, 5 or even six years to collect all of his money IF he ever does. And that's highly doubtful.
A five year contract for $45 mil with roughly $21 mil guaranteed in the first three years averages $7 mil per year now and $12 mil per year over the last two years for an 5 year average of $9 mil per year. Does anyone here really believe that player will see all $24 mil during those last two years? If so step right over here, I have some beautiful Colorado beachfront property for sale cheap. It's not gonna happen folks. That part of those contracts is written in erasable ink with full intention that it will be written over.
No matter what the final figures say unless these guys stay at the very top of their game and avoid injury most of these guys may see $30 mil give or take 10% out of these deals. Some even less if injuries end or diminish promising careers. So if the Bears are offering Matt Forte a $17 mil guarantee that pays out over three years then they are truly under market BUT if what they decided to do is to offer him a deal that pays out that same $17 mil (which is the equivalent of two years franchise tags) over the next two seasons he's making $8.5 mil per year on average over years one and two and if the total deal is for $32 mil over 4 years that's an average of $8 mil per year over the life of the deal and he may be one guy who will actually see 100% of that money.
We don't know what the deal is but it seems to me that if they intend to tag him for two years anyway why not just go ahead and guarantee him that money now paid out in salary in 2012 and 2013. Then a salary of $7.5 mil per year in 2014-2015. If he gets hurt or his productivity falls the can cut him anytime after 2013 and it costs them zilch in hard dollars or cap dollars. If he finishes the deal as agreed upon Matt gets his $8 mil per year and the Bears real risk without recourse is only $17 mil. That's a fair deal for both parties and it's ultra competitive with any other offer out there.
It's a business, and that's been established. Forte deserves a shot at earning all those millions he thinks he's entitled to, but at the same time what is asking for exactly? That's what this article is basically inferring and implying, because we don't know. That's a good point you made on the final two years of the contract, soul. Cliff Stein is at his best in restructuring salaries in how they are paid out, especially where it involves the cap. Provided that Forte does decide to sign whatever offer the Bears decide to offer him, it will be interesting to see how difficult he gets to deal with the closer to those two final years on his deal comes to being.
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Originally Posted by
BigBadPapaBear The DeAngelo Williams contract really has created a mess in determining the value of RBs. Stupid Panthers.
Yeah the sticking point may be that $16mil SB which is about double what some of the rest got but when you look at the deal it's really a three to four year deal as far as his security goes. Through 2013 he'll have gotten $26 mil or an average of $8.67 mil per year but in 2014 if they cut him they roll up $6.4 mil in unamortized SB and save his $5.75 mil salary which only leaves them with a $650k of "dead cap space".
If he's been injured or they've drafted a first round rookie who's signed for $2 mil per year who the feel they're just as well off with it's bye bye DeAngelo Williams time. If he makes it through 2014 he's gotten $31.75 mil or an average of just under $8 mil per year. If they cut him before 2015 they actually save $3.55 mil in cap space.
So if Forte gets $32mil/4 yrs w/$17mil over years one and two it's close to this deal.
I'll point out the same thing here that Ric did in the McCoy deal. When you add the numbers up there is $4.5 mil less than the $43 mil total and it's not footnoted anywhere. My guess is that money is incentive bonuses which are designated as ULTBE (unlikely to be earned) and quite a few contracts include them just to puff the total value of the deal. They aren't included in the cap costs until they're paid so that's why you don't see them listed. There's a 90% chance he never sees all of that money anyway..
DeAngelo Williams
Running Back
Players: Drafted:Round 1 (#27 overall), 2006
College: Memphis
Current Salary Information
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| Contract: 5 yr(s) / $43,000,000 | Signing Bonus $16,000,000 | Average Salary $8,600,000 | End Year: 2015 | Free Agent: 2016 / Unrestricted |
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| 2011 | - | 3,200,000 | - | 3,200,000 | | 2012 | 5,250,000 | 3,200,000 | - | 8,450,000 | | 2013 | 4,750,000 | 3,200,000 | - | 7,950,000 | | 2014 | 5,750,000 | 3,200,000 | - | 8,950,000 | | 2015 | 6,750,000 | 3,200,000 | - | 9,950,000 | | 2016 | UFA | - $21 million guaranteed
- Signing bonus: $16 million
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Last edited by soulman; 05-19-2012 at 09:31 PM.
I'm getting to that age where a lifetime warranty just doesn't mean as much to me anymore as an afternoon nap. Honey Badger Don't Care. Honey Badger Don't Give a Shit.
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I'm back. Did you miss me?
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Soul you misread, the article states ...it is believed they offered him 6 and they undervalued him... and then states they believe ...IF they had offered him 7.5 he would be signed and under contract right now. This INFERS That they never offered him 17-18 you think they have. Maybe I missed the part you are looking at, so let you show you what I am:
-- Bears missed window of opportunity: The time to sign Forte was last offseason, but the Bears probably undervalued him then. It is believed they offered him a little more than $6 million per year.
Since that time, Forte's price has gone up in part because he had a career year and because the deals of Williams, Foster and McCoy, among others, have driven up the market.
If the Bears had offered $7.5 per year last summer, it's possible Forte would be under contract now.
Nothing I shows says they have upped the offer, but it does state they beleive Forte is looking for 8.5. Two people asked to value Forte put him at 8 to 8.5 per year. NOTHING states the Bears offered him either. AND we know last summer it never got anywhere near that b/c he was only offered 13-15 mil guaranteed.
I've been stating for months that I believed the Bears purposely low balled him so they could go ahead and get a sweetheart deal, or FT him for 1 to 2 years depending on performance and go from there and therefore not have long term money wrapped up into him. Sad/Funny, 2 years of 7-9 mil in FT is about 8mil. And if the guarantees only last 3 years you get him complete through his prime for that money w/out the animosity built up; I would think it would have been worth that extra year.
Last edited by Riczaj01; 05-19-2012 at 09:55 PM.
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Originally Posted by
Riczaj01 Soul you misread, the article states ...it is believed they offered him 6 and they undervalued him... and then states they believe ...IF they had offered him 7.5 he would be signed and under contract right now. This INFERS That they never offered him 17-18 you think they have. Maybe I missed the part you are looking at, so let you show you what I am:
-- Bears missed window of opportunity: The time to sign Forte was last offseason, but the Bears probably undervalued him then. It is believed they offered him a little more than $6 million per year.
Since that time, Forte's price has gone up in part because he had a career year and because the deals of Williams, Foster and McCoy, among others, have driven up the market.
If the Bears had offered $7.5 per year last summer, it's possible Forte would be under contract now.
Nothing I shows says they have upped the offer, but it does state they beleive Forte is looking for 8.5. Two people asked to value Forte put him at 8 to 8.5 per year. NOTHING states the Bears offered him either. AND we know last summer it never got anywhere near that b/c he was only offered 13-15 mil guaranteed.
If Forte's value is now between $8 to $8.5 million...then I'd rather the Bears part ways after the 2012 season. That's just too much money to pay for a RB not named Adrian Peterson. The Bears have to be careful not to overload this rsoter with guys making this kind of crazy money. It just isn't going to work with that kind of a contract.
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Pappa, AP and CJ both make about 14 mil a year. That means the next year(averaging 7-8 mil) is right where Forte falls. It's not crazy money 10-15 mil is crazy money.
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Originally Posted by
Riczaj01 Pappa, AP and CJ both make about 14 mil a year. That means the next year(averaging 7-8 mil) is right where Forte falls. It's not crazy money 10-15 mil is crazy money.
$14 million a year for a running back is pretty absurd. So is $8-$8.5 million when you have a backup that can start for many teams in this league. The Bears are better off finding another back in next year's draft to take Forte's place. The Bears have a lot of young guys on the roster who they will soon have to pay. Sometimes you can't keep everybody.
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