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Can Lovie Smith’s team string together a ten-win season in 2012?
RSSCan Lovie Smith’s team string together a ten-win season in 2012? Joe Fortenbaugh
JUNE 07, 2012SHARE
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An upgraded receiving unit, quality depth at the running back position and a defense that still has enough gas left in the tank to pose a serious threat on Sundays has the Chicago Bears as one of a handful of teams I’m keeping a close eye on this summer.
So what better time than now to take a look at the season win totals that have been posted for the Bears as we approach the start of the 2012 campaign?
The Chicago passing attack should see a big lift from former Miami Dolphin Brandon Marshall.
I’d imagine that setting this line couldn’t have been easy for Las Vegas bookmakers. The Bears possess the key ingredients required for success in the NFL: a franchise quarterback, veteran leadership and an oft-stingy defense loaded with Pro Bowl talent and game-changing ability.
But Chicago has their questions marks as well. Can the offensive line elevate its play and keep Jay Cutler healthy? Has Father Time caught up with Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs? Will the Matt Forte contract situation carry over into the regular season and cause a distraction within the locker room?
And let’s not forget about the division in which the Bears call home, which just so happens to feature the 15-win Packers and upstart Detroit Lions. Earning a playoff berth from the NFC North will be no picnic in the park.
FINDING THE BEST PLACE TO BET
Here’s the breakdown on the Chicago Bears from Las Vegas and offshore:
MGM: 9.0
LVH: 9.0
BetOnline: 9.0
Sportsbook: 9.0
Cantor: 8.5
5dimes: 8.5 (Over: -180, Under: +150)
If we determine that the under is the strongest play available, we’ve got at least four shops that are currently offering a 9. If the over tickles our fancy, Cantor (Las Vegas) or 5dimes (offshore) have us covered with an 8.5.
EXAMING THE SCHEDULE
Here’s how the Bears stack up in relation to the point spreads for Week 1 through Week 16 that were released by Cantor Gaming a few weeks ago.
Week 1: -9.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Week 2: +7.5 at Green Bay Packers
Week 3: -7.5 vs. St. Louis Rams
Week 4: +3 at Dallas Cowboys
Week 5: -3 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 6: BYE
Week 7: -2.5 vs. Detroit Lions
Week 8: -4 vs. Carolina Panthers
Week 9: -1 at Tennessee Titans
Week 10: -1 vs. Houston Texans
Week 11: +4.5 at San Francisco 49ers
Week 12: -7.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Week 13: -5.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Week 14: -2.5 at Minnesota Vikings
Week 15: +3 vs. Green Bay Packers
Week 16: -1 at Arizona Cardinals
Week 17: at Detroit Lions (no line posted)
Favorite: 11 times
Underdog: 4 times
Interesting. Cantor has the Bears’ win total listed at 8.5, but the same company has the same team favored in 11 of 15 games this season. Worse case scenario, the Bears should enter the bye week at 3-2 with wins over Indy, St. Louis and Jacksonville. A home date against Detroit following the bye is a very favorable situation as are the home contests against Carolina and Seattle.
Assuming the Bears come off the bye at 3-2, the team would then need to win six more games for an over ticket to cash. A season split with Detroit gives us one and victories over Carolina, Tennessee, Seattle and Arizona would put us at eight. That means just one victory over a Minnesota Vikings team that went 3-13 last season would put us in the black.
Should the Bears find a way to beat Minnesota in both meetings this season, Chicago could then afford to drop one of those aforementioned winners (Carolina, Tennessee, Seattle or Arizona) and we would still turn a profit with a nine-win campaign.
WORD ON THE STREET
Who knows the Chicago Bears better than the guys who cover the team for a living? For some insight on the 2012 season, we turn to Chicago Tribune writers and fellow NFP scribes Dan Pompei and Brad Biggs for their thoughts on the Bears’ season win total:
Pompei: “It seems to me that Vegas is being a little pessimistic on the Bears. They won eight games a year ago without having Jay Cutler for six games, and they were 7-3 when Cutler went down. Assuming Cutler is healthy, and assuming Brandon Marshall makes the passing game better than ever, the Bears look like a 10 win team to me.”
Biggs: "The Bears are optimistic about their chances this season because they were 7-3 last year when quarterback Jay Cutler was lost for the season with a thumb injury. The returning defense is essentially the same but the team has added playmaker Brandon Marshall to the offense. This is a team that believes it would have reached 10 wins a year ago."
THE ROSTER
The good: The trade for Brandon Marshall and selection of South Carolina rookie Alshon Jeffery provide an immediate upgrade to the wide receiving unit, while the signing of former Raider Michael Bush gives the Bears a serious 1-2 punch at the running back position. After appearing in just two games as a rookie in 2011, former first round pick Gabe Carimi appears healthy and ready to assume a regular spot along the offensive line. 2012 first round pick Shea McClellin provides the additional pass rusher the Bears were looking for this offseason.
Lovie Smith's teams have always bounced back favorably after disappointing seasons.
The bad: The Bears ranked 28th against the pass last season and will need a big contribution from 2010 third-round pick Major Wright (SS), especially when you consider the fact that CB Charles Tillman turned 31-years-old in February. The offensive line surrendered 49 sacks last season (5th-most in NFL) and 56 the year before (most in NFL), so all eyes will be on this unit early.
Coaching: Now in his ninth year as the head coach in Chicago, Lovie Smith has won at least nine games in four of eight seasons. And every time the Bears boss has won eight or fewer games in a season (like he did last year), Chicago has responded by winning at least nine contests the following year.
CONCLUSION
At 8.5, I think we’ve finally found our first solid over bet for the upcoming season. As Dan Pompei mentioned above, this is a team that won eight contests last year despite injuries to both their star quarterback and running back. An upgraded receiving unit and a favorable schedule have me looking past the heavy juice on the 8.5 and willing to back the Chicago over in 2012.
"Give 100%. 110% is impossible. Only idiots recommend that." - Ron Swanson
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If we stay healthy (at least with our key personnel, like Peppers, Urlacher, Cutler etc etc) and the oline is truly fixed now - I think we easily win 10 or more games. If some of those key players have season-ending injuries, and the oline isn't fixed, we're going to struggle to get 10 wins.
Last edited by JustAnotherBearsFan99; 06-07-2012 at 05:31 PM.
Trestman - Kromer - Tucker - DeCamillis
I'm looking forward to seeing these guys coach. Hope they're good.
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High Fives / Like - 1 BEAR DOWN!, 0 Dislikes
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The over/under at 8.5 I will take over everyday of the year. At ten I still think over, but I am a little bit prejudiced...
Last edited by BossK; 06-07-2012 at 05:04 PM.
Reason: 8.5 f'ing numbers
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High Fives / Like - 1 BEAR DOWN!, 0 Dislikes
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Originally Posted by
BossK 
The over/under at 8.5 I will take over everyday of the year. At ten I still think over, but I am a little bit prejudiced...
I'm looking at that schedule and if injuries don't mount up and we don't do stupid things I see more like 11 or 12 wins. I'd take the over bet all day long. In fact this may be one of the first bets I'll make.
I'm getting to that age where a lifetime warranty just doesn't mean as much to me anymore as an afternoon nap. 
Honey Badger Don't Care. Honey Badger Don't Give a Shit.
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High Fives / Like - 3 BEAR DOWN!, 0 Dislikes
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Brah I see 12-14 wins this season. They're going to go on a run this year.
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I don't see how he could not win 10
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High Fives / Like - 1 BEAR DOWN!, 0 Dislikes
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It should be 10+. But besides a playoff birth the thing I am hoping for the most is peaking at the right time-towards the end of the season.
Arguing on the internet is like winning the special olympics, even if you win your still messed up.
Restore the roar!
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A couple of you have touched on the real issue with pre-season prognostications, and it certainly isn't rocket science. In real Estate, the three critical issues as we have all heard is Location, Location, and then of course Location. In the NFL, I believe it is injuries, injuries, and then injuries. In my opinion, every year there are 2 to 4 teams that are always much better than the rest and 2 to 4 that are always at the bottom regardless of how healthy they remain. The rest are so close in terms of talent that injuries (or the lack thereof) make or break their seasons. The 2010 and 2011 Bears are a prime example of this. In 2010 we made it all the way to the NFCCG with what I think was a little bit better than average team, but lat year with a better team, we were torpedoed by injuries.
So yea, I think a Lovie Smith team could easily collect over 10 wins, maybe even 13 with THIS personnel group and barring those injuries, but a couple of mid level injuries and one critical injury to either side of the ball and that number drops significantly.
The Greatest form of revenge is MASSIVE success.
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High Fives / Like - 3 BEAR DOWN!, 0 Dislikes
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Originally Posted by
4DaBERS A couple of you have touched on the real issue with pre-season prognostications, and it certainly isn't rocket science. In real Estate, the three critical issues as we have all heard is Location, Location, and then of course Location. In the NFL, I believe it is injuries, injuries, and then injuries. In my opinion, every year there are 2 to 4 teams that are always much better than the rest and 2 to 4 that are always at the bottom regardless of how healthy they remain. The rest are so close in terms of talent that injuries (or the lack thereof) make or break their seasons. The 2010 and 2011 Bears are a prime example of this. In 2010 we made it all the way to the NFCCG with what I think was a little bit better than average team, but lat year with a better team, we were torpedoed by injuries.
So yea, I think a Lovie Smith team could easily collect over 10 wins, maybe even 13 with THIS personnel group and barring those injuries, but a couple of mid level injuries and one critical injury to either side of the ball and that number drops significantly.
That's "it" in a nutshell.
That's why it's so heartbreaking to have key injuries transform a Bears team that in September is a Super Bowl level team, to a team that can't even win its own division. Like a lot of you guys, I'm a die-hard fan. It just sucks the life out me when I'm watching a game & a key player goes down. Obviously, you feel for the hurt player, but selfishly, I get sick thinking it's probably going to be a year when my dreams of a Super Bowl win go down the toilet.
I've followed over 50 Bears seasons. Heck, some years I feel like I may not live to see another Super Bowl win. Seriously. While you can't stop injuries. All teams have them. You CAN assemble a team with above average depth quality. It doesn't mean the #2 is as good as your #1. That is unrealistic. But I believe many Super Bowl winners are clubs that have above average #2's.
This is why having a brilliant GM is vital. One who knows talent, and can clearly see the upside in players. Some want to give Jerry Angelo a pass because he wasn't completely bad. He did have some good moves. But you have to have SO much better talent in your GM than that. Good isn't good enough. I'm liking Emery's moves so far. He seems to know talent. He's thoughtful, almost like a chess master so far, because he inherited a team with serious deficiencies - more than he can fix in one season.
Last edited by JustAnotherBearsFan99; 06-08-2012 at 12:31 PM.
Trestman - Kromer - Tucker - DeCamillis
I'm looking forward to seeing these guys coach. Hope they're good.
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As you guys have pointed out injuries play a major role in the fortunes of any team. If a first string QB goes down many teams don't have a #2 they can win with. If they do they're fortunate but in most instances it will be a player with significant NFL experience himself.
Emery did some amazing things to improve our depth this year at some key spots but there was no way to cover all of the bases. We're still vulnerable if we lose Pep or Urlacher from the defense or Cutler or Marshall from the offense. Their backups would have to step up and play extremely well for us to continue winning.
But we're in far better shape overall than we were a year ago especially on offense. We can still win with the #2 guys we have at key positions. Maybe we couldn't win a SB but that doesn't mean we couldn't get to one and once you're there it's anybodies games.
I'm getting to that age where a lifetime warranty just doesn't mean as much to me anymore as an afternoon nap. Honey Badger Don't Care. Honey Badger Don't Give a Shit.
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