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Thread: John Clayton's Theory of 150 for Offensive Lines..............

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    Mello Jello soulman's Avatar
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    John Clayton's Theory of 150 for Offensive Lines..............

    John Clayton's 'Theory of 150' for O-lines

    June, 12, 2012 Jun 12
    12:00
    PM ET


    By Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com




    ESPN.com senior writer John Clayton has theories on questions you've never thought of asking, and here is one of particular note to NFC North teams. When evaluating the future of an offensive line, Clayton writes, teams would be wise to follow the "Theory of 150."

    Here's how Clayton explained it: "If a team lets its starting offensive line exceed the total age of 150 years for five starters, the clock is ticking on its remaining success."

    A cumulative age of 150 means an average age of 30 for five starters, an intuitive if arbitrary benchmark for signaling transition. As Clayton notes, there is one NFC North team that exceeds the limit: the Detroit Lions, whose five starters total 152 years old.

    The Lions have already started the process of getting younger, having drafted Riley Reiff as a possible replacement for 34-year-old left tackle Jeff Backus. Even so, they still have a 33-year-old center Dominic Raiola and a 30-year-old right guard in Stephen Peterman.

    The Theory of 150 also helps explain why 2012 was the right time for the Minnesota Vikings to overhaul their line. Last year's starters, which included left guard Steve Hutchinson (34) and right guard Anthony Herrera (32) would have combined for an age of 147 when the 2012 season began. By drafting left tackle Matt Kalil and moving Charlie Johnson (28) to left guard, the Vikings ensured themselves of the youngest offensive line in the NFC North this season. (Geoff Schwartz, who will be 26 in Week 1, or Brandon Fusco, 23, will start at right guard.)

    The Green Bay Packers, meanwhile, brought their cumulative age down from 140 by replacing left tackle Chad Clifton (36) with Marshall Newhouse (23). The Packers stand at 133 because new center Jeff Saturday will be 37 in Week 1, but it's worth-noting the second-oldest Packers offensive lineman is right guard Josh Sitton at 26.

    Finally, the Chicago Bears are expected to have two starters of at least 30 years old -- left guard Chris Spencer and center Roberto Garza. Their cumulative age will be 138 with J'Marcus Webb at left tackle and 141 if Chris Williams wins the job.

    As with anything, the "Theory of 150" is more relevant for some teams than others. The line is a position group where younger isn't always better; the fading of speed and athletic ability don't affect linemen as much as running backs, receivers and other skill positions.

    But if you are a team that wants to plan orderly transitions, the "Theory of 150" is a decent benchmark for timing. Whether or not we added the cumulative ages of the Lions' linemen, we could eyeball the roster and know it's time to begin the process. In that regard, Reiff was drafted at an ideal time. So was Kalil in Minnesota, and it's not surprising to see the Packers move on at left tackle as well.

    Soon, we'll move on to the "Theory of 10:" How watching 10 hours of television a day is a sign it's time to find a hobby.
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    Senior Member Riczaj01's Avatar
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    Not sure about this one. 35+35+27+27+27=151. That means you should have 3 guys in their prime and two guys needing retired; yet the time is ticking? Even if both are T's you could take care of that in 1 offseason via draft and FA.

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    Mello Jello soulman's Avatar
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    This is an interesting concept although I don't know how applicable it is to the Bears. Depending on who the starters are at OG we have an interesting blend of youth (Louis) and experience (Garza and Spencer) although if Rachal or EWill were to start at LG the their youth would counterbalance CWill at LT.

    Rather than age I believe the real problem is the lack of experience at OT. We have three OT's and only one of them (Webb) has played an entire season at the OT position and not played very well. Carimi has only two starts to his credit and CWill has only played a handful of games at LT and a few more at RT.

    Personally I think it's hard to tell whether the talent is there or not. It usually takes three years to develop an NFL LT and we don't have a player with anywhere near that amount of experience. Webb is the nearest to it at LT and CWill has two years at LG but will his performance there transfer to LT? If we've made a mistake in FA and the draft this is where it will show up.

    Conversely Carimi and CWill graded out as the two best lineman before they were lost to injury and both are returning with CWill possibly taking over at LT. It's hard to believe he could do any worse then Webb did in 2011 but one way or the other that spot needs to be tied down by one or the other this summer.

    The line isn't young but it should be reaching a point where the combination of experienced vets and younger players should begin to pay off. If it doesn't this year then it's our turn for an overhaul.
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    Interesting theory. I don't know how accurate it is as just like a car there are different types of mileage (and for people genetics) that determine athletic productivity. Probably could be used as a rule of thumb however. Surprised Clayton hasn't extrapolated median age to other positions.

    Bears are getting (and going to get) younger w/Emery which in general is a good thing.
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    Talk about pulling one out of your ass! Anyone can make a theory of anything. Show me some cases where it is valid and someone else can show cases where it is not.

    It is dependent on the actual players, their abilities as well as the abilities of the supporting cast such as QB and RB with their ability to avoid pressure on their own. The team scheme also comes into play.

    So all this to say that when something gets older it may not work as well as when it has fewer mileage?

    I guess they have to create news where there is none.

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    Mello Jello soulman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by short faced bear View Post
    Interesting theory. I don't know how accurate it is as just like a car there are different types of mileage (and for people genetics) that determine athletic productivity. Probably could be used as a rule of thumb however. Surprised Clayton hasn't extrapolated median age to other positions.

    Bears are getting (and going to get) younger w/Emery which in general is a good thing.
    Well like he says shorty it's a starting point. It's not like the line suddenly hit's a wall but injuries probably become more frequent. One thing that keeps some of those guys going is there craftiness overcomes some of the decline in their physical abilities. They finesse a lot more.
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    Quote Originally Posted by soulman View Post

    Rather than age I believe the real problem is the lack of experience at OT. We have three OT's and only one of them (Webb) has played an entire season at the OT position and not played very well. Carimi has only two starts to his credit and CWill has only played a handful of games at LT and a few more at RT.

    Personally I think it's hard to tell whether the talent is there or not. It usually takes three years to develop an NFL LT and we don't have a player with anywhere near that amount of experience. Webb is the nearest to it at LT and CWill has two years at LG but will his performance there transfer to LT? If we've made a mistake in FA and the draft this is where it will show up.
    I agree with all of your post, but especially with these points. We really don't know much at this point. I'm hoping the Chris Williams move is just a "scare tactic" to light a fire under Webb. But (this whole thing is making me crazier than I already am) but if Webb needs to be motivated at the NFL-level, then something is horribly wrong with him. A young guy like that should be on fire with a zeal to excel every snap at his position.

    He's got a starting left tackle job in the NFL. Wouldn't you think that would be something to be proud of? Proud enough to bust your butt - killing yourself - to keep that job? So if we need the C.Will scare tactic, then things are not good at LT this year.
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    Quote Originally Posted by JustAnotherBearsFan99 View Post
    I agree with all of your post, but especially with these points. We really don't know much at this point. I'm hoping the Chris Williams move is just a "scare tactic" to light a fire under Webb. But (this whole thing is making me crazier than I already am) but if Webb needs to be motivated at the NFL-level, then something is horribly wrong with him. A young guy like that should be on fire with a zeal to excel every snap at his position.

    He's got a starting left tackle job in the NFL. Wouldn't you think that would be something to be proud of? Proud enough to bust your butt - killing yourself - to keep that job? So if we need the C.Will scare tactic, then things are not good at LT this year.
    In Webb's case I think there's a huge lack of maturity 99. I think the kid is a long way from growing up. He came from a nothing existence at a small school where he dominated and just Gabriel's article says he's getting by purely on natural ability. If the kid did have a fire built under him I'm still not sure it's gonna work until he matures a little.

    That's what I'd just as soon CWill take over for now. At least Cutler should have more trust in him. He was his LT at Vanderbilt so he knows what he's capable of. Cutler didn't mention him by name but you know it's Webb he's most concerned about and I think he's reached a point in his leadership where if Webb isn't getting the job done he'll ask Tice to replace him. Maybe he already has.
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    Quote Originally Posted by soulman View Post
    In Webb's case I think there's a huge lack of maturity 99. I think the kid is a long way from growing up. He came from a nothing existence at a small school where he dominated and just Gabriel's article says he's getting by purely on natural ability. If the kid did have a fire built under him I'm still not sure it's gonna work until he matures a little.

    That's what I'd just as soon CWill take over for now. At least Cutler should have more trust in him. He was his LT at Vanderbilt so he knows what he's capable of. Cutler didn't mention him by name but you know it's Webb he's most concerned about and I think he's reached a point in his leadership where if Webb isn't getting the job done he'll ask Tice to replace him. Maybe he already has.
    I wonder if one or more of the respected veterans (like Urlacher, Peppers, Peanut....) could sit down with him 1-on-1 in private, and tell him the facts of NFL life. Like, he's got an opportunity that most folks would kill to have - wealth beyond his dreams as a starting NFL LT, fame (Chicago never forgets it's good athletes), and the pride of doing something incredibly fun & special with your life and retire a sports hero (guys like Jimbo Covert).

    Or.

    He can be out on the street in a couple of years, as just one more guy who had the talent, but not the drive to make it in the NFL. A "self inflicted" bust in his career.
    Last edited by JustAnotherBearsFan99; 06-12-2012 at 07:56 PM.
    Trestman - Kromer - Tucker - DeCamillis

    I'm looking forward to seeing these guys coach. Hope they're good.


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    Quote Originally Posted by bearsinhouston View Post
    Talk about pulling one out of your ass! Anyone can make a theory of anything. Show me some cases where it is valid and someone else can show cases where it is not.

    It is dependent on the actual players, their abilities as well as the abilities of the supporting cast such as QB and RB with their ability to avoid pressure on their own. The team scheme also comes into play.

    So all this to say that when something gets older it may not work as well as when it has fewer mileage?

    I guess they have to create news where there is none.
    +123

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