Thread: Is Matt Forte Getting Bad Advice?.....................

Originally Posted by motownbear

how the hell do we know that forte is getting bad advice when we dont even know what was offered to him lol

if forte was offered 20 mil guaranteed then yeah he is a damn fool passing the guaranteed money

if forte was offered 15 mil guaranteed then he is taking the risk of going for the franchise offer but at least that is below his value so it makes more sense to reject

the one thing missing in our back and forths about forte is none of us know jack on what the hell the offer was

I guess by deductive reasoning mo. Doesn't it seem a little odd to you that the only two RB's holding out share the same agent? He's an attorney and what are attorneys hired for? To advise their clients right?

So by my estimation he has two guys who are unhappy with what they're getting or what they've been offered and neither one of them has one iota of leverage. If Forte stays out he loses out on $7.74 mil and he has nothing to use to compel the Bears to raise their offer. Hell so far he won't even sign his tender now in order to reopen negotiations. With a July 16th deadline for accepting a new deal that seems a bit stubborn.

MJD has two years remaining on his deal and it's the policy of virtually every NFL team not to renegotiate deal that have two years to go. In the final year they'll often work out an extension but seldom in the 4th year of a 5 year deal. So if MJD stays out he can be fined for missing camp. I don't know if he has anymore leverage with the Jags than Forte does with the Bears but that's not the point I was making.

Both of them are being advised to hold out by the same agent and neither has much if any real leverage. If they want to settle matters they'd both be better off to report and then try to work something out. Unless Bakari is advising them against what they're doing and they just doing this for their own reasons then yes, I think they're getting bad advice. Just like I think Jerry Sandusky pleading innocent came from bad advice.

They're gonna find him guilty and hang him with a life sentence. Imagine how popular he'll be in prison.

Edit: Even if he is only being offered a $15 mil guarantee (which I doubt) what good will holding out do? That's roughly twice as much as the tender sitting in front of him now and only a couple of mil short of what he'd get from two years of being tagged and I believe the Bears have at least offered to guarantee that much.

He has no guarantee of getting one nickel more than $7.74 mil now and not even that unless he signs his tender. 2013 at 120% of this years $$$ isn't guaranteed. If he busts up a knee or anything else that may cause a career threatening of ending injury he loses out one that.

Can't happen you say? I've posted this before. Last fall Johnny Knox was offered an extension similar to the one Earl Bennett accepted. Knox turned it down and now he's out a $6 mil SB and maybe every other dollar he's have made over the rest of his career. So the risk is definitely there.

Edit: My bad. Ray Rice is holding out too and Bakari isn't his agent. I stand corrected.

Originally Posted by motownbear

you make a good point but forte's risk to wait for a better deal next season isnt the same as Knox. Knox was never going to be franchised ever and forte at the least if he gets "knoxed" still has the 7 mil in the bank once he signs that tender. I cant fault a guy for betting on himself. Pride can be a great motivator to excel but as you say could also backfire on him.

Im just going to stick to my original opinion of not picking a side on this cause idk who to blame for this situation. Based on specualtion I agree with you that its forte's camp that is unnecessarily holding out. But without all the facts thats it just seems unjustified to call him dumb for not taking a deal that none of us really know what it is.

btw ray rice is another hold out at the running back position. I think his scenario is closer to forte because of overuse

Yeah thanks for catching that. I went back and corrected it and Rice doesn't have Bakari for an agent either.

Mo, it's not a matter of taking side as far as I can see. To me it's about accepting facts. The old "what it, is". If the Bears aren't 100% in control of this right now then they're at least 99% in control.

I want to see Matt Forte signed. I want Matt Forte playing for the Bears for the next fours years during which time I believe we can win at least one SB. I'd rather play with him than against him. But in order for that to happen there has to be a meeting of the minds and right now it seems like Matt has already made his mind up.

He'll sign the tender but on his terms. That's his only victory. His only way to salvage some pride. If he signs now the Bears promised to reopen talks. He doesn't see to want to do that so to me that points towards his having already made his mind up.

The reason I think he's being foolish or getting bad advice is that he's taking a huge amount of risk as far as the balance of his career goes and he has no assurance that he'll be offered anymore next year by anyone else than the Bears are offering now. He'll be $7.74 mil richer just like Johnny Knox would have been at least $6 mil richer. One gambled and lost and I think the other is about to. Good Luck with that Matt.

Originally Posted by Riczaj01

Soul your deductive reasoning is flawed in b/c of your bias towards the Bears point of view though. Last years "Strong offer" was the 13 mil. THere is no reason to believe that this years "lucrative offer" wasn't the 15 mil they offered during the season last year.

The idea that RB's fall off the wagon after 25, which a few years ago it was 30 so I don't have any idea where that came from is debunked w/a little research. RB's are still productive up until 30; and I think you could say w/a top OL can be after that.

If the cap hit is such that the Bears have to make choices and therefore Forte cannot be in their longterm plans, that's fine, but don't blame Forte for not wanting to wade into FA and test the market by not signing a less then average deal when compared to his contemperaries. And if that's the case the Bears should have been upfront and said, hey we cannot afford to give you what you deserve. Here's your tag for the year and after that we wish you best in your future endeavours.

I'm not biased towards the Bears point of view and I'm not biased towards Matt Forte's either. I don't really care how much they pay him. But I am biased toward simple facts and other logical deductions. Some of you want to ignore those things and clutch that last straw that you keep holding onto which says all they've offered him in guarantees is somewhere between $13 and $15 mil and that's too low. Some say $20 mil in guarantees is fair but less is not. All that matters is what the Bears think is fair and that's all I'm trying to interpret as far as what I've posted. Other than that I don't have a horse in this race.

If that's all they've offered for a 4 or 5 year deal then yes, I believe that is low. But........we have no more confirmation of those amounts than we do the amounts Forte is demanding or anywhere in between. It's all a guess. The only way to arrive at some logical assumptions is to analyze what's taken place and take your best shot at what logic, reason and experience tell you. What it tells me is that the Bear have offered more than you believe they have but not anywhere near as much as Forte is asking for. That's what I believe and what I still hang my hat on. Your entitled to believe whatever you choose to believe.

You guys seem to be dealing with your emotions over what he should be paid and all I'm doing is dealing with the facts and the interpolation of a few of them.

Fact; the Bears and Forte have not come to an agreement.
Deduction; Matt wants more than the Bears are willing to pay.

Fact; The Bears have franchised him at a cost of $7.74 mil
Deduction; Forte will play for that if he doesn't get what he wants.

Fact; Matt Forte must agree to the Bears final offer by July 16th or he will be forced to play for the tender.
Deduction; The Bears are at or very nearly at that final offer whatever it is.

Fact; Matt has no leverage right now to force them to offer him more than that.
Deduction; The Bears won't substantially increase their offer because of this.

This is pretty much all we know for certain. The rest is based on logical, deductive reasoning such as; He's asking to be paid like other top backs. In his world those deals range from around $40-$45 mil with around $20-$21 mil guaranteed. So to me it seem pretty logical to assume that he wants to be in that range somewhere and he's ignoring contracts that have paid and guaranteed less than this and are for less than 5 years because they don't fall in line with his demands. He wants to be in the upper range of those deals or at the top, not in the middle somewhere.

We also don't know what the Bears have offered. We've heard amounts of $13-$15 mil rumored in articles written by sportswriters but neither side had broken their silence about it so we really don't know anymore about this end of it than we do Matt's. We also don't know what the whole offer is worth, the length of the deal or the specific terms of the offer. So here as well all we can do is reason it out as logically as we can such as; The Bears are not willing to give him a 5 year/$40 mil plus deal with $20-$21 mil guaranteed. If they were I think we'd have heard about it and Matt would have accepted anything reasonably close to that.

If the $13-$15 mil is correct then it's so far off the mark as far as what's being demanded that it seems very unlikely that's where they're at UNLESS it's only a 3 year deal they're offering him with a total package of around $22-$23 mil and maybe some incentives that may push him up another mil or two. This is possible and maybe one reason they're at a stalemate. With the Bears rumored to have concerns about his knees this scenario isn't out of the question but the actual length of the offer has never been considered or discussed before. With those concerns maybe the Bears aren't willing to commit to more than 3 years and he wants 5 years.

So if it's possible the above is where each of them began this negotiation it seems pretty illogical to think that there hasn't been some change in what's been offered and maybe what's been asked as well. You have to admit if they were that far apart on a 4 or 5 year deal then they'd never reach an agreement unless some kind of compromise was reached and it's obvious they haven't reached it yet. It never will if this is where it stands with the Bears offering a 3 year deal and fair money based on that and Forte asking for 5 years and a match to those other deals.

So here's where my deductive reasoning comes in. I believe that earlier this year in an attempt to get him signed and open up some cap space the Bear offered him an alternative of a 4 year deal averaging around $7.5 mil per year with around $17 mil or maybe as much as $18 mil guaranteed over the first three years of a four year deal. In the 3 year deal he gets a little less in guarantees (maybe $15 mil) but it's paid out in two years. I don't know all of this for a fact. No one does. But based on my experience and reason this is what seems most likely and it's what I've been posting on for several months. Nothing has changed except to put forward the idea that the $13-$15 mil offer was the guaranteed $$$ based on a three year deal, not a four or a five year deal.

That's what I believe is going on and I've defended that position pretty well IMHO. The Bears want him signed and I believe that is a fact because that tender amount is a cap killer. It doesn't make any difference at all whether anyone else buys this or not. None at all. The fact is all that matters is what the Bears are willing to offer and whether or not Matt decides to end this by accepting it. That's all that matters. The rest is just us discussing our take on it.

Ric, if you're convinced that my example of the decline in Neal Anderson's performance isn't an accurate representation of what can happen to a high mileage back after 4 or 5 seasons I'd welcome you do actually post some of that research you've done instead of just talking about it. Talk is cheap my brother. I also didn't say age 25. My example was of what happened to Anderson at the same age as Forte is now which is 27 this year, not 25. Dig up some facts on RB's who have continued to churn out 1500 yard total yardage years up to and into their 30's. I'd love to know who some of these guys are and what teams they've played for recently.

If Matt Forte's play doesn't decline within the next 3-4 years he'll be an exception to the rule and not the norm. When you research it that's what you're gonna find. I've been there and you can bet the Bears have too.

Originally Posted by motownbear

soul I dont think he should jump at just any deal and thats why I cant formulate an opinion on whose side to take. You are taking Bears side at this point based on this "strong offer". How about if that strong offer is last years contract that I would wipe my ass with if I was him? Unless I find out what the deal is I cant pick a side on who is right and who is wrong in this situation

and ric its not really about age but more so about use and forte has lots and lots and lots of miles on him and multiple knee injuries.

This I agree with whole heartedly and it's why I used the example of Neal Anderson in another thread. Neal got kind of used up too and his productivity took a pretty big nose dive from year six on. But Ric doesn't buy this mo. He's saying RB's are Energizer Bunnies who stay at the top of their game well into their late 20's or early 30's. Maybe so if they've far fewer touches than Matt Forte and then again maybe not. How well did that work out with a low mileage, 30 year old plus Chester Taylor. If there's a stable full of guys out there who've done it then let Ric produce that list. I wanna see it.

And I'll say again, I am not taking the Bears side. I'm explaining what I think is going through their minds and what I believe they may have done to get an acceptable deal in front of him but that's it. I'll say it again. I don't care what they pay him I only care that both parties come to an agreement which is what all of us seem to want.

The facts are the facts and that's what I'm dealing with mo. The fact is the Bears haven't offered him a deal close to what he's asking or they'd have settled it by now. So with little or no verifiable info to go on all we can do is take a guess at where each side stands. I've done that and if it seems like my opinions are weighted towards the Bears position then it's because the facts weight it that way and not because my emotions are telling me to back the Bears.

I'm sorry but every argument against what I've been posting is based on 100% pure emotion. I post facts and logical deductions while Ric and others tell me I'm wrong but post no FACTS of their own. Only feelings and contentions based on those feelings. Too bad, so sad. This is the NFL we're talking about here not the Texas Christian Academies League. It's big business and the Bears are looking at it that way. To them it's not personal, it's just business and you do what you can. I believe Matt Forte is taking it personally and his position is based on those emotions just as some posters here are basing there's on the same.

If he can get a 5yr/$40mil/$20mil deal out of them more power to him but I don't think that will happen. The other thing I believe would happen if they did give him his deal and Forte's productivity did fall off or he sustained a career ending injury the "pay the man" guys would be the first ones jumping off his bandwagon claiming we over paid him and we have a cap problem because of it. Happens all the time just like it did after Lovie got his last extension following the SB and then went .500 in the three seasons that followed.

You been around here almost as long as I have. You know I'm right about that much.