Thread: Five Scenarios For Ending Matt Forte's Contract Dispute...........

Originally Posted by yttocs

LOL 26 year old RB on the down side of years, Yet everyone thinks the 28 year old RB will be ok with the 25 year old running back . MF proved what he is capable of doing. Came in and played will the BEARS really ( wink wink ) tried to extend a contract with him last year. I think MF has 3 good years left. Make the long term contract put the money in the 3 years, BEARS now have money to play with . WIN WIN, No one is say Bush or Bell is BETTER, just that we COULD live with them. 20 mil SB on a 5 year deal would allow the BEARS on room. When someone PROVES to me the BEARS offer that and MF turn it down then I'll change my mind on MF. He's worth the deal. All this 26 years of age being too old for a running back is BS, you sign a capped rookie deal and when you hit FA your too old? Guess we should just get use to an ALL out of college team. After 4 years your too old to play, plus it will help the players long term with health and safety concerns too. Meaning it with cut the cost of the care of players for the NFL. The BEARS under cut MF last year, well MF , play the BEARS game right back at them. Show up the first week you dont loss any money. I mean why risk it. The BEARS dont want to risk it right. Just say to yourself, What Would The BEARS Do.

Originally Posted by BigBadPapaBear

What you fail to recognize is that teams around the NFL have paid attention to what's been happening to RBs productivity once they pass the 26-27yr threshold. And its rather clear that the Bears brass sees Forte as replaceable in the near future. This really isn't rocket science man. When the Bears have a player they believe they can't live without, they do the full court press and get him signed. Without even knowing the numbers, its clear the line is drawn in the sand and the Bears have a great contingency plan in place and Forte's days could be numbered based on how he plays this season.

Originally Posted by yttocs

OK , the plan is? Draft an unknown player? Right , thats work out so well since well Neal Anderson. Good plan. Or good with an OLDER RB thats not as good , hence devalue the position. CHECK. But pay MF 7.7 Mil for a year, thats an awful lot of money for an over used, bad knee, OLD everydown RB. Guess I'm the only one that thinks MF is a good asset to the team. But hey, we / the BEARS can always just sign someone elses cut to play the position, you know another 26 year old off of a rookie contract, oh what , thats too old for a RB. Guess they'll just draft a unknown. PRAY for the best.

OK, I'm gonna tackle all three of these at once.

Yttocs you say that a 26 year old RB with 4 years of pretty heavy use on his body can't be in decline? Ok, let's use the example of the player you named and the once he's most often compared to. Here's Neal Anderson career record as a Chicago Bears RB.


Neal Anderson
Height: 5-11 Weight: 210 Age: 47
Born: 8/14/1964 Graceville , FL
College: Florida
Experience: 8 Seasons


CAR
1,515

YDS
6,166

AVG
4.1

TDS
51

• Profile
• Career Stats
• Game Logs
• Game Splits
• Situational Stats

Career Stats more
Season	Team			Rushing					Receiving					Fumbles
		G	GS	Att	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Rec	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	FUM	Lost
1993	Chicago Bears	15	11	202	646	3.2	45	4	31	160	5.2	35	0	2	1
1992	Chicago Bears	16	11	156	582	3.7	49T	5	42	399	9.5	30T	6	6	3
1991	Chicago Bears	13	12	210	747	3.6	42T	6	47	368	7.8	26T	3	5	0
1990	Chicago Bears	15	--	260	1,078	4.1	52	10	42	484	11.5	50T	3	--	--
1989	Chicago Bears	16	--	274	1,275	4.7	73	11	50	434	8.7	49T	4	--	--
1988	Chicago Bears	16	--	249	1,106	4.4	80T	12	39	371	9.5	36	0	--	--
1987	Chicago Bears	11	--	129	586	4.5	38T	3	47	467	9.9	59T	3	--	--
1986	Chicago Bears	14	--	35	146	4.2	23	0	4	80	20.0	58T	1	--	--
TOTAL				1,515	6,166	4.1	80	51	302	2,763	9.1	59	20	13

In 1991 Neal Anderson was 27 years old and had been an NFL RB for 5 years. He'd gained over 1000 yards rushing averaging @ 4.4 ypc and averaged 1582 total yards of offense over the 3 previous seasons scoring 40 TDs. Through 1990 he had 1129 touches (108 less than Forte) he'd never averaged less than 4.1 ypc rushing and averaged 9.9 ypr on receptions. He was an All Pro RB each of those three years 88-90 and made the 1991 Pro Bowl.

Now look at his production over the last three years of his career. He had only one year over 1000 yards total offense, average less than 1000 yards total offense per year for those 3 years, had just 24 TD's and never came close to averaging 4.0 ypc again. Up until 1991 he's also never had one fumble in his entire career. He has 13 in his last 3 years.

So yeah. A 27 year old RB who'd made the Pro Bowl 4 years in a row and had been the MVP in at least one of those games can see his career start to slide after age 26. It's not like it never happened before. Anderson had fewer touches in 5 years than Forte has had in 4 and during his rookie year Anderson was a FB sharing the backfield with Walter.

BBPB is correct. NFL teams are maniacal when it comes to statistics. They keep track of everything and break it down into averages, tendencies, medians, standard deviations, outliers and every other way of analyzing things that they can think of. If the productivity of RB's begins to decline past a certain age of number of carries they would know it better than anyone. They'd also know the odds of a player sustaining a serious injury after 4 or 5 years vs his first 3 or 4. There not just guessing at his stuff.

Whether or not any of us think Matt Forte is worth a 5 year/$40 mil + deal with $20 or more guaranteed is beside the point. I don't believe the Bears feel he's worth that much to them. I believe that if they offered him that much he'd have agreed by now so I don't think they have and I don't think they will. They have other offensive options and other players with contracts due they need to take care of too.

The Bears are paying Matt Forte $7.74 mil because that 's what a franchise tagged RB gets. It puts him in the top 5 of all RB compensation wise. The Bears would rather not pay him $7.74 mil. That's a ball buster as far as the cap is concerned so any arguement that they weren't trying to sign him to a more cap friendly deal is useless. If they weren't trying to avoid tagging him why would they even bothered to make an offer last year. Why even continue to negotiate. Just slap the tag and him and move on. Why? Because it hurts them with other signings because of how it affects the cap. So saying they don't want to get him under a long term deal is ludicrous. Don't even go there.

Could we draft a rookie to replace him. I don't see why not. We were looking for a RB when we drafted him in the 2nd round so why couldn't we find another like him and spend a lot less money. Of course we could and that's exactly what we'll probably do in the 2013 draft if we don't get him signed. There are decent RB's in every draft and they aren't picked anywhere near as high as they used to be. Neal Anderson was the last player drafted in the first round when the Bears took him. There have been a lot of backs drafted after the first round who've had great NFL careers. Hell Arian Foster was an UDFA.

Right now there seems to be a division of opinion along the lines of those looking at the reality of it all and thinking with their heads and those who don't want to accept facts and are thinking with their hearts. We all want to see him signed it's just a matter of whose side we believe in more as far as these negotiations go. But the over riding factor in all of this is that right Matt Forte is either worth what the Bears are willing to offer him or he's worth $7.74 mil for one year. Those are the facts and they are not in dispute.

Originally Posted by soulman

OK, I'm gonna tackle all three of these at once.

Yttocs you say that a 26 year old RB with 4 years of pretty heavy use on his body can't be in decline? Ok, let's use the example of the player you named and the once he's most often compared to. Here's Neal Anderson career record as a Chicago Bears RB.


Neal Anderson
Height: 5-11 Weight: 210 Age: 47
Born: 8/14/1964 Graceville , FL
College: Florida
Experience: 8 Seasons


CAR
1,515

YDS
6,166

AVG
4.1

TDS
51

• Profile
• Career Stats
• Game Logs
• Game Splits
• Situational Stats

Career Stats more
Season	Team			Rushing					Receiving					Fumbles
		G	GS	Att	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	Rec	Yds	Avg	Lng	TD	FUM	Lost
1993	Chicago Bears	15	11	202	646	3.2	45	4	31	160	5.2	35		2	1
1992	Chicago Bears	16	11	156	582	3.7	49T	5	42	399	9.5	30T	6	6	3
1991	Chicago Bears	13	12	210	747	3.6	42T	6	47	368	7.8	26T	3	5
1990	Chicago Bears	15	--	260	1,078	4.1	52	10	42	484	11.5	50T	3	--	--
1989	Chicago Bears	16	--	274	1,275	4.7	73	11	50	434	8.7	49T	4	--	--
1988	Chicago Bears	16	--	249	1,106	4.4	80T	12	39	371	9.5	36		--	--
1987	Chicago Bears	11	--	129	586	4.5	38T	3	47	467	9.9	59T	3	--	--
1986	Chicago Bears	14	--	35	146	4.2	23		4	80	20.0	58T	1	--	--
TOTAL				1,515	6,166	4.1	80	51	302	2,763	9.1	59	20	13

In 1991 Neal Anderson was 27 years old and had been an NFL RB for 5 years. He'd gained over 1000 yards rushing averaging @ 4.4 ypc and averaged 1582 total yards of offense over the 3 previous seasons scoring 40 TDs. Through 1990 he had 1129 touches (108 less than Forte) he'd never averaged less than 4.1 ypc rushing and averaged 9.9 ypr on receptions. He was an All Pro RB each of those three years 88-90 and made the 1991 Pro Bowl.

Now look at his production over the last three years of his career. He had only one year over 1000 yards total offense, average less than 1000 yards total offense per year for those 3 years, had just 24 TD's and never came close to averaging 4.0 ypc again. Up until 1991 he's also never had one fumble in his entire career. He has 13 in his last 3 years.

So yeah. A 27 year old RB who'd made the Pro Bowl 4 years in a row and had been the MVP in at least one of those games can see his career start to slide after age 26. It's not like it never happened before. Anderson had fewer touches in 5 years than Forte has had in 4 and during his rookie year Anderson was a FB sharing the backfield with Walter.

BBPB is correct. NFL teams are maniacal when it comes to statistics. They keep track of everything and break it down into averages, tendencies, medians, standard deviations, outliers and every other way of analyzing things that they can think of. If the productivity of RB's begins to decline past a certain age of number of carries they would know it better than anyone. They'd also know the odds of a player sustaining a serious injury after 4 or 5 years vs his first 3 or 4. There not just guessing at his stuff.

Whether or not any of us think Matt Forte is worth a 5 year/$40 mil + deal with $20 or more guaranteed is beside the point. I don't believe the Bears feel he's worth that much to them. I believe that if they offered him that much he'd have agreed by now so I don't think they have and I don't think they will. They have other offensive options and other players with contracts due they need to take care of too.

The Bears are paying Matt Forte $7.74 mil because that 's what a franchise tagged RB gets. It puts him in the top 5 of all RB compensation wise. The Bears would rather not pay him $7.74 mil. That's a ball buster as far as the cap is concerned so any arguement that they weren't trying to sign him to a more cap friendly deal is useless. If they weren't trying to avoid tagging him why would they even bothered to make an offer last year. Why even continue to negotiate. Just slap the tag and him and move on. Why? Because it hurts them with other signings because of how it affects the cap. So saying they don't want to get him under a long term deal is ludicrous. Don't even go there.

Could we draft a rookie to replace him. I don't see why not. We were looking for a RB when we drafted him in the 2nd round so why couldn't we find another like him and spend a lot less money. Of course we could and that's exactly what we'll probably do in the 2013 draft if we don't get him signed. There are decent RB's in every draft and they aren't picked anywhere near as high as they used to be. Neal Anderson was the last player drafted in the first round when the Bears took him. There have been a lot of backs drafted after the first round who've had great NFL careers. Hell Arian Foster was an UDFA.

Right now there seems to be a division of opinion along the lines of those looking at the reality of it all and thinking with their heads and those who don't want to accept facts and are thinking with their hearts. We all want to see him signed it's just a matter of whose side we believe in more as far as these negotiations go. But the over riding factor in all of this is that right Matt Forte is either worth what the Bears are willing to offer him or he's worth $7.74 mil for one year. Those are the facts and they are not in dispute.

Now add in all the running back the BEARS have draft between to two ( MF NA ) Hows that pan out? So MF is worth 7.7 mil a year with an infaltion increase, so 20 over 5 guarenteed is out of the question, got it. Less of a cap it and as you put it, the player never sees the full contract. The BEARS draft a player in the next draft, let him learn and KEEP THE WAER AND TEAR the BEARS will put on him down and then use against him on a contract. IF the BEARS tag twice thats around 17 mil, third year at 3 spread over 5 HMMMMM. And again as you state why should the BEARS say they wont tag him next year to get him to sign. OK Well why should MF sign before he HAS to to get full contract money? Its less wear and tear and is to his advantage to prolong it right? Be a good sport and risk your career for one year, when you state he was over used and has too many mles on? Thats more of a reason to prolong and come in when he HAS too.


P.S. go Garret Wolf, oh wait....K.Bell if he was better MF wouldn't be TAGGED. Bush, hmmm, Cap hit? But an often injuried player replaced him....Got it Abandon the running game, or put a RB in that runs well and team know that , then replace said RB with a pass blocker when we pass and team know that too. I'm not for breaking the bank, but 20 mill over 5 years guaranteed sounds right. He's getting almost half that this year alone, aged , over used and bad knee and all.


P.S.S. and what is the exact offer the BEARS offered MF? I dont know what hes asking either, so... I do note you think MF is on the out, not worth the price, He's a has been going down. The BEARS got rid of TJ, and CB only for them to have a few more good yeas ( TJ, CB still might have even more, but glad hes gone ).

MF is replaceable and won't get the money he wants from the Bears. He will end as one of the biggest disappointing signing by a team that wants him. MF has way too many risks coming with him to give him this kind of money.

I think he has 2-3 years left until he really is nothing good anymore

"Premier running back and a 4-3 Defense!"

Some Bear fans just won't change.