Thread: NFC North Defense : Chicago Bears

I like his conclusion for the Bears, but to be honest, there are a lot of variables moving forward this season that statistics from the past can't accurately predict outcomes. If we were playing the exact same players, against the exact same players, in the exact same schemes (opponents and us) with the exact same coaches, with the exact same injuries on both side - well, you still couldn't get it exactly right.

If (big if) we stay fairly healthy on offense and defense, especially with our key players (like Urlacher, Tillman, Peppers, Cutler, Marshall, etc etc) then we'll have a good year. It doesn't take a stat junkie to tell us that.

(that Raider guy should get a life)

Most people would agree that the Bears’ defense was solid in 2011, though some might say that they gave up quite a few points and so might disregard them. When we look closely at the statistics and how the points were being scores, we found quite a few interesting tidbits.


The Defense was playing under duress in 2011. They were on the field often and were in poor position when they were out there. Even with those negatives, they had big playmakers on defense that made huge contributions over the coursed of the year.


Looking at the statistics, we can project what the defensive productions would be like if the Bears’ defense were to be given an NFL Average offense to work with. This results in a drastic change in the drive distribution and a resulting significant drop in total points allowed. The points total drops from 333 all the way to 268 total points, which is just under 17 points per game.


Additionally, when we take into account the defensive scoring and their contribution to the offense, the Bears’ statistics shift from a good or middle-of-the-pack defense to an Elite one, leap-frogging such notable teams as the Steelers, 49ers, and Texans.


If the Bears’ offense can improve with the return of Cutler and the additions of Michael Bush and Brandon Marshall, if “J’Marcus Webb pans out” and that offense can produce, this defense look like it is still capable of being dominant.

232 points is excellent. The League average for the full adjustments is 300 points, so the Bears were a full 68 points (23%) above average. But more to the point, in the final defensive rankings of all 32 NFL teams, [link] the Bears are ranked #3, ahead of the Steelers, and behind only The Ravens and the surprising Detroit Lions.