Matt Forte or Michael Bush Near the Goal Line?.........

**soulman** · 07-23-2012, 02:34 PM

Matt Forte or Michael Bush near goal line?

July, 23, 2012 Jul 23
2:50
PM ET

By Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com

Matt Forte's contract agreement last week with the Chicago Bears changed the dynamic of our discussions about their backfield. No longer is newcomer Michael Bush a contingency plan for a possible Forte holdout. Now, Forte and Bush are part of a two-headed backfield that offers plenty of new possibilities.

Our friends over at ESPNChicago.com started the conversation with a "Four Downs" feature that asked, among other questions, whether Forte or Bush would finish the season with more touchdowns. You never know what might happen in the passing game, but in terms of the run, past performance and schematic history suggest Bush could out-score Forte even if he gets a fraction of the carries.

We've discussed Forte's poor production in goal-to-goal situations in previous years. Last season, as the chart shows, he didn't score on any of his 12 carries under those circumstances. Bush, on the other hand, scored on seven of his 20 goal-to-go carries. For perspective, the NFL's most productive goal-to-go runner was probably the Philadelphia Eagles' LeSean McCoy, who scored 11 times on 28 carries.

Forte is among the NFL's most versatile backs, but he has never demonstrated consistent power running near the goal line -- even when playing in two very different offensive schemes under Ron Turner and then Mike Martz. The Bears' current offensive coordinator, Mike Tice, is a long-time proponent of power running, and set up an interesting and at least mildly relevant arrangement during his first year as the Minnesota Vikings' head coach in 2002.

That season, the Vikings started speedy Michael Bennett as their primary tailback and used veteran Moe Williams in short-yardage situations. Bennett finished with 1,296 yards and Williams scored 11 rushing touchdowns on 106 total carries, mostly close to the goal-line.

It would be convenient to conclude that Tice will reprise that situation 10 years later, with Forte as his lead back and Bush playing in short-yardage, but it makes sense and has precedent. That's a pretty good start as we sit here prior to the first whistle of training camp.

Goal-To-Go Rushing, 2011

Player	Rush	NFL Rank	Yards	NFL Rank	TDs	NFLRank
Matt Forte	12	21	9	T-48	0	T-91
Michael Bush	20	12	24	T-20	7	T-10
Source: ESPN Stats & Information

**soulman** · 07-23-2012, 02:48 PM

I don't think there's gonna be much argument here. From anyone's perspective Matt Forte needs a running mate who can run with power between the tackles and around the goal line. Those have always been holes is his game ergo the need to have MB III or Michael Bush style RB's in the Bears offense.

The number don't lie. Everything Matt isn't around the goal line Michael Bush is and I'm glad. We usually end up settling for about a dozen 20-25 yard FG's per year some of which should have been unnecessary if we had managed to score from first and goal drive starts. In many instances that would have been an extra 4-8 points per game that may now turn a defeat into a win.

Robbie Gould may lose out on a few points from chip shot FG's but this could easily add a couple of games to the win column every year.

**jocko** · 07-23-2012, 04:02 PM

Bush can get it done at the goal line. Matt has had trouble there several times. I say Michael Bush

**yttocs** · 07-23-2012, 05:14 PM

Hell, I'll just be happy to have more TD's then chip shot FG's.

**BigBadPapaBear** · 07-23-2012, 07:19 PM

Bush. I don't think I need to remind people that Forte simply stinks inside the 10. And yes I too am tired of the Bears settling for FGs because he can't get it in.

**Papa Bear** · 07-23-2012, 07:41 PM

Bush five yards or closer to the goal line with Marshall, Jeffrey and Kellen Davis. Yes please.

**bearsinhouston** · 07-23-2012, 08:10 PM

I have to go with Bush. For some reason unkown to me, Forte kind of sucks at close yardage. He is a do everything back, so I really don't get it, but numbers don't lie.

**JustAnotherBearsFan99** · 07-23-2012, 08:13 PM

I'm with Bush, but it's also a problem of the oline disappearing in the shadow of the goal line. Don't be surprised if Bush doesn't do much better than Forte - unless the oline steps it up with their red zone run blocking in general - and with their goal line blocking in particular.

Which brings up another point. A lot of Forte's success has been ripping off decent runs where there wasn't much blocking. No hole to hit. Just Forte being gifted enough to make something out of nothing.

I'd watch some other games these past couple of years (not the Bears) and it would make me angry to see some olines blowing open big holes all game long. If Forte had something like that, he'd have even MORE impressive yardage. I could see him lead the NFL in rushing by a huge margin. Huge.

**bearsinhouston** · 07-23-2012, 08:25 PM

yeah, good point. The goal line play for the OL is much different in short yardage. You are right that the OL is probably a contributor, but I do think much of it is on Forte. We play all kinds of teams with all kinds of DL's and Forte is just consistently not very good at short yardage. He can do everything else and should be ok at short yardage also so I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt with our "new improved" OL!

Originally Posted by JustAnotherBearsFan99

I'm with Bush, but it's also a problem of the oline disappearing in the shadow of the goal line. Don't be surprised if Bush doesn't do much better than Forte - unless the oline steps it up with their red zone run blocking in general - and with their goal line blocking in particular.

Which brings up another point. A lot of Forte's success has been ripping off decent runs where there wasn't much blocking. No hole to hit. Just Forte being gifted enough to make something out of nothing.

I'd watch some other games these past couple of years (not the Bears) and it would make me angry to see some olines blowing open big holes all game long. If Forte had something like that, he'd have even MORE impressive yardage. I could see him lead the NFL in rushing by a huge margin. Huge.

**JustAnotherBearsFan99** · 07-23-2012, 08:56 PM

Originally Posted by bearsinhouston

yeah, good point. The goal line play for the OL is much different in short yardage. You are right that the OL is probably a contributor, but I do think much of it is on Forte. We play all kinds of teams with all kinds of DL's and Forte is just consistently not very good at short yardage. He can do everything else and should be ok at short yardage also so I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt with our "new improved" OL!

I agree. Hey, do you notice that our oline gets zippo surge forward at the goal line? The dline's consistently push us back. We now have some physical specimens on that oline (big men) and you'd think they could be road graders. But they aren't. They often look weak at the goal line stands. Weak.

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