Thread: What is the 2012 ceiling for this oline?

They can only improve if we base on what they can improve from preseason.
I think they'll improve because they get more games with eachother, Tice will know what works and what not works etc etc.

I would be thrilled with average. They have been looking better, but also- they played the Jags, who had only 2 sacks on the season coming in, and got one on Cutler. Not horrible, but that is not the same as looking good against NY Giants or the Fudgepackers or niners, some of the teams we will likely see in the playoffs. (hopefully green bay keeps it up and misses the playoffs altogether- but that is another story)
An average O line, with the offensive skill position players we have, and the D we have, should be sufficient. If we cannot go deep in the playoffs with an average o-line, then it is on somebody else, depending on what happens, Cutler, Lovie, Tice, even the D may have a crappy game and we lose a shootout- not likely, but it could happen, I am just saying, in that scenario, the fault would not lie with the o line.

Originally Posted by Rogelio

They will improve and Tice will continue to see what schemes they can and can't block for. I don't think they have a shot at being any greater than average this year, but I think they will continue to get better as the year goes on.

This is my gut feeling too. I'd be fine with average this year, considering how bad they were the past two years. The heck of it is, I've seen worse olines than ours this year. Imagine that.

Football Outsiders have us at #9 run blocking, and #23 pass blocking.

Published on Football Outsiders (http://www.footballoutsiders.com)

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2012 OFFENSIVE LINES

By Aaron Schatz
Created 08/29/2012 - 11:38pm

Offensive Line
Regular season totals, through Week 5

Revised as of 10/9/2012

Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Line Yards. Based on regressionanalysis, the Adjusted Line Yards formula takes all running back carries andassigns responsibility to the offensive line based on the following percentages:

• Losses: 120% value
• 0-4 Yards: 100% value
• 5-10 Yards: 50% value
• 11+ Yards: 0% value

These numbers are then adjusted based on down, distance, situation,opponent, and the difference in rushing average between shotguncompared to standard formations. Finally, we normalize the numbers sothat the league average for Adjusted Line Yards per carry is the sameas the league average for RB yards per carry. These stats are explained further here [1].
The following stats are not adjusted for opponent:

• RB Yards: Yards per carry by that team's running backs, according to standard NFL numbers.
• Power Success: Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer. This is the only statistic on this page that includes quarterbacks.
• Stuffed: Percentage of runs where the running back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Since being stuffed is bad, teams are ranked from stuffed least often (#1) to most often (#32).
• Second Level Yards: Yards which this team's running backs earn between 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries.
• Open Field Yards: Yards which this team's running backs earn more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, divided by total running back carries.

NFL averages for each stat given in red.
Why are these rankings different from the team offense [2] DVOA ratings for rushing? Among other reasons, they don'tinclude quarterbacks or fumbles, long runs are truncated, and a different set ofadjustments is used, attempting to isolate line play rather than total teamoffense.
A team with a high ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a low ranking in Open FieldYards is heavily dependent on its offensive line to make the running game work.A team with a low ranking in Adjusted Line Yards but a high ranking in Open Field Yardsis heavily dependent on its running back breaking long runs to make the runninggame work.
However, it is important to understand that these ratings only somewhatseparate the offensive line from the running backs. A team with a verygood running back will appear higher no matter how bad their line, and a teamwith a great line with appear lower if the running back is terrible.
Stats in blue represent passblocking. Teams are ranked according to Adjusted Sack Rate, which gives sacks (plus intentional grounding penalties) perpass attempt adjusted for down, distance, and opponent. Pass blocking stats areexplained further here [3].Our sack totals may differ slightly from official NFL totals depending on theleague's retroactive statistical adjustments.

RUN BLOCKING												PASS PROTECTION
	Team	Adj. Line Yards	RB Yards	Power Success	Power Rank	Stuffed	Stuffed Rank	2nd Level Yards	2nd Level Rank	Open Field Yards	Open Field Rank	Team	Rank	Sacks	Adjusted Sack Rate
1	SF	5.34	5.44	60%	18	12%	3	1.71	1	0.90	9	NYG	1	5	3.0%
2	SEA	4.76	4.35	69%	9	10%	1	1.22	11	0.40	23	HOU	2	3	3.1%
3	BAL	4.67	5.05	56%	20	14%	4	1.42	5	1.07	5	BUF	3	5	3.8%
4	NYG	4.43	5.04	71%	7	19%	19	1.31	8	1.35	3	TEN	4	8	4.3%
5	NE	4.42	4.60	67%	11	17%	13	1.49	3	0.81	12	OAK	5	7	4.5%
6	MIA	4.18	4.33	61%	17	17%	12	1.17	14	0.85	10	DAL	6	8	4.6%
7	MIN	4.17	4.19	63%	15	22%	26	1.15	17	0.79	13	CLE	7	9	5.0%
8	ATL	4.16	3.88	50%	22	11%	2	0.93	24	0.59	20	IND	8	9	5.1%
9	CHI	4.12	4.19	69%	8	18%	14	1.19	12	0.73	18	DET	9	9	5.1%
10	HOU	4.09	4.01	56%	19	22%	25	1.13	18	0.66	19	MIA	10	10	5.2%
11	JAC	4.08	4.60	89%	1	19%	18	1.29	9	1.01	7	NYJ	11	9	5.3%
12	TB	4.06	3.71	63%	16	17%	9	0.92	26	0.28	29	NO	12	12	5.4%
13	SD	4.05	4.12	67%	13	18%	15	1.08	20	0.81	11	DEN	13	10	5.5%
14	CIN	4.03	3.93	71%	6	15%	5	0.95	23	0.74	17	ATL	14	12	6.1%
15	PHI	4.01	4.34	67%	12	27%	29	1.44	4	0.75	16	MIN	15	9	6.1%
16	BUF	3.99	5.28	20%	32	15%	8	1.36	7	1.40	2	NE	16	12	6.2%
RUN BLOCKING												PASS PROTECTION
	Team	Adj. Line Yards	RB Yards	Power Success	Power Rank	Stuffed	Stuffed Rank	2nd Level Yards	2nd Level Rank	Open Field Yards	Open Field Rank	Team	Rank	Sacks	Adjusted Sack Rate
17	WAS	3.96	4.82	50%	27	18%	16	1.40	6	1.12	4	TB	17	7	6.5%
18	NO	3.93	4.16	86%	2	15%	7	0.81	29	1.01	6	BAL	18	13	6.9%
19	DEN	3.92	3.93	65%	14	20%	21	1.05	21	0.50	21	SEA	19	10	7.0%
20	KC	3.87	5.28	80%	3	21%	24	1.51	2	1.58	1	PIT	20	9	7.3%
21	CLE	3.86	3.70	50%	23	20%	22	1.02	22	0.35	25	KC	21	13	7.6%
22	GB	3.83	3.66	67%	10	17%	10	0.93	25	0.36	24	PHI	22	14	7.6%
23	NYJ	3.79	3.12	80%	4	15%	6	0.69	32	0.11	32	CHI	23	14	7.9%
24	DET	3.78	3.45	44%	29	17%	11	0.90	27	0.22	30	JAC	24	15	8.0%
25	STL	3.54	3.90	43%	30	27%	28	1.25	10	0.79	14	SF	25	12	8.3%
26	PIT	3.44	3.03	78%	5	21%	23	0.80	30	0.18	31	CAR	26	13	8.6%
27	DAL	3.42	3.85	50%	24	26%	27	1.17	15	0.75	15	SD	27	14	8.7%
28	CAR	3.33	3.67	55%	21	19%	17	1.10	19	0.49	22	WAS	28	14	8.9%
29	IND	3.16	3.32	50%	25	31%	31	1.18	13	0.35	26	STL	29	15	9.1%
30	OAK	2.97	3.45	40%	31	20%	20	0.82	28	0.98	8	CIN	30	15	9.1%
31	TEN	2.71	3.05	50%	26	27%	30	1.16	16	0.30	28	GB	31	21	10.0%
32	ARI	2.52	2.48	44%	28	32%	32	0.71	31	0.30	27	ARI	32	23	11.0%
x	NFL	x	4.15	62%	x	19%	x	1.04	x	0.66	x	NFL	x	11	6.6%

The second table lists each team's Adjusted Line Yards in each direction listedin official NFL play-by-play, along with rank among the 32 teams. Only fivedirections are listed because research so far shows no statistically significantdifference between how well a team performs on runs listed middle, left guard,and right guard.

		LEFT END		LEFT TACKLE		MID/GUARD		RIGHT TACKLE		RIGHT END
	TEAM	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank
1	SF	6.42	2	4.24	12	5.35	1	4.62	10	6.01	5
2	SEA	4.82	8	5.10	4	4.01	17	5.42	4	6.51	3
3	BAL	2.92	20	4.58	9	4.76	4	5.44	3	4.99	10
4	NYG	4.24	13	4.21	14	4.83	3	4.31	14	2.89	24
5	NE	5.21	6	6.65	1	4.44	8	3.17	24	1.71	28
6	MIA	4.19	15	4.28	11	4.52	7	3.15	25	3.28	21
7	MIN	3.20	18	3.49	18	4.22	14	4.03	18	6.25	4
8	ATL	4.71	9	3.89	17	4.08	16	5.36	5	2.98	23
9	CHI	2.86	21	3.15	24	3.99	19	4.14	16	7.19	1
10	HOU	5.27	5	3.30	22	3.97	20	4.73	8	3.03	22
11	JAC	4.23	14	5.65	2	4.32	12	5.72	2	1.32	29
12	TB	6.98	1	3.32	21	3.82	23	4.80	6	3.59	19
13	SD	4.90	7	3.25	23	4.18	15	4.07	17	3.38	20
14	CIN	1.28	29	2.49	26	4.90	2	4.15	15	4.84	12
15	PHI	1.41	26	5.10	5	3.26	28	4.73	7	4.96	11
16	BUF	0.39	32	4.24	13	4.73	5	2.04	31	7.10	2
		LEFT END		LEFT TACKLE		MID/GUARD		RIGHT TACKLE		RIGHT END
	TEAM	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank	ALY	Rank
17	WAS	4.44	11	3.45	19	4.33	11	2.76	28	4.37	14
18	NO	3.87	16	4.19	15	3.92	21	4.42	13	2.03	27
19	DEN	2.03	24	1.43	30	4.69	6	2.47	29	5.65	7
20	KC	3.07	19	2.34	27	4.27	13	4.49	12	4.29	15
21	CLE	6.28	3	2.26	28	4.01	18	4.71	9	5.12	9
22	GB	2.20	23	3.42	20	4.39	9	3.73	21	3.86	17
23	NYJ	2.73	22	5.21	3	3.78	24	3.73	22	4.12	16
24	DET	1.37	27	3.02	25	4.34	10	4.54	11	0.00	31
25	STL	3.24	17	4.57	10	3.88	22	2.27	30	5.40	8
26	PIT	1.34	28	5.04	6	3.36	27	2.88	26	5.83	6
27	DAL	4.38	12	4.94	7	2.96	30	2.85	27	2.43	26
28	CAR	4.52	10	0.78	32	3.52	25	7.10	1	2.65	25
29	IND	5.49	4	4.15	16	1.64	32	3.95	20	3.63	18
30	OAK	0.98	30	4.87	8	3.26	29	4.02	19	1.09	30
31	TEN	0.97	31	1.43	29	3.38	26	1.87	32	-0.03	32
32	ARI	1.48	25	1.34	31	2.66	31	3.63	23	4.45	13
x	NFL	3.77	x	3.82	x	4.10	x	3.93	x	0.00	x

The third table lists how often each team runs in each direction. Numbers may not add up to 100% due to carries listed without direction.

	Team	RB Carries	LEFT END	LEFT TACKLE	MID/ GUARD	RIGHT TACKLE	RIGHT END
1	NE	178	12%	13%	54%	10%	10%
2	HOU	172	17%	12%	47%	12%	12%
3	KC	162	20%	10%	44%	17%	9%
4	MIA	156	8%	21%	52%	13%	6%
5	SEA	142	4%	32%	39%	21%	3%
6	CHI	135	7%	14%	56%	13%	10%
7	MIN	126	10%	10%	67%	8%	6%
8	SF	126	21%	13%	46%	11%	9%
9	BUF	123	7%	11%	66%	12%	2%
10	DEN	123	5%	13%	61%	13%	8%
11	NYG	119	14%	20%	48%	11%	7%
12	SD	118	13%	13%	54%	8%	12%
13	PHI	116	13%	19%	28%	16%	24%
14	STL	113	13%	16%	35%	29%	7%
15	NYJ	112	8%	5%	63%	15%	9%
16	WAS	112	19%	15%	31%	17%	18%
	Team	RB Carries	LEFT END	LEFT TACKLE	MID/ GUARD	RIGHT TACKLE	RIGHT END
17	CIN	110	11%	15%	50%	13%	11%
18	BAL	108	10%	8%	59%	14%	8%
19	ATL	107	15%	10%	47%	13%	15%
20	ARI	102	6%	26%	46%	14%	8%
21	JAC	99	13%	5%	65%	5%	12%
22	PIT	96	7%	10%	68%	10%	4%
23	NO	91	10%	8%	64%	14%	4%
24	TB	89	8%	15%	58%	9%	10%
25	GB	88	14%	11%	49%	10%	16%
26	CAR	84	12%	6%	60%	2%	19%
27	IND	84	19%	14%	46%	8%	12%
28	CLE	83	5%	19%	54%	13%	7%
29	DET	82	10%	22%	49%	18%	0%
30	TEN	81	7%	9%	70%	7%	6%
31	DAL	65	12%	18%	38%	18%	12%
32	OAK	65	18%	23%	23%	23%	11%
x	NFL	x	12%	14%	51%	13%	0%

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Source URL: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2012
Links:
[1] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/methods#aly
[2] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff
[3] http://www.footballoutsiders.com/info/glossary#asr