HESTER Vs BENNETT

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Originally Posted by XxMidwayMonstersxX

So I was listening to Mully & Hanley this morning (sports talk radio 670 the Score 10/16/12). They were talking about the value Earl Bennett bring to the Bears Vs. his contract cost. Comparisons were made between Hester and Bennett. To me the obvious answer is Bennett. My opinion is that Hester is a situational receiver at best and a gimmick at worst. Bennett is a solid receiver who is valued by our QB and comes up big on third down and in the slot, his only problem is that he is injury prone (not really his fault but if his body can't hold up you have to take that into consideration).

Basically I want your opinion on who brings more value to the team (as a wide receiver) for the money.

To help us out I'm posting the contracts of each player below (you can look them up in more detail if desired):

Hester: $15 mill guaranteed, $18.94 mill in escalators, $7,646,000 cap hit in 2012, $12,857,523 cap hit in 2013

Bennett: $9 Mill guaranteed, $9.55 Mill in escalators, $2,800,000 cap hit 2012, $3,550,000 cap hit in 2013


Essentially Hester ends up making slightly more than double what Bennett makes when you look at what they "actually" get paid. But that doesn't really matter for purposes of this discussion. We should only look at what effect their salaries have on the team (team cost) and what value they bring for that cost (team value).

Finally, be careful not to look at Hester's return value. Thats not what I'm asking about here and thats not what Hester is being paid for as most of his escalators are for WR stats. You could also say that Hester is no longer prolific as a return man. Prolific to me is when everyone knows what you are going to do and they game plan for it but they just can't stop you (Hester circa 2006). I think using that definition Hester is no longer prolific in that area (although he's still very good). So lets just compare them as receivers.

Thanks for your opinions!

GO BEARS

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Bennett is far more valuable as WR than Hester is because he can keep drives alive. He's one of the best go to receivers on third down in the entire NFL. Hester simply doesn't make enough big plays at WR to offset that.

But in making this $$$ vs $$$ comparison MM we have to consider that Hester is actually getting just a little more in combined base salary and amortization of his signing bonus ($3.5mil) for 2012 and 2013 than Bennett ($3.25mil) is. The $250k difference is mostly a workout bonus Hester has. The salaries and their signing bonuses are actually very similar. One big difference is that Hester gets a $5 mil annual roster bonus and as the best KR/PR of all time I believe that's fair.

The other $5 mil tacked onto his 2013 cap will only be earned for his production as a WR and since he's not gonna earn it without being a #1 guy that will never be paid and will end up being a credit to the cap. So in reality he's really only making about $5 mil more than Bennett and that is more based on his continuing to make the final roster and that only happens as long as his return skills keep him as one of the best. He's not getting the extra $5 mil as a #3 WR.

I disagree that Hester is no longer a prolific return man. He took three to the house just last year and three the year before. You gotta stop reading what the sportswriters are saying MM and look at the reality. Long TD returns on kicks and punts area a rarity that's been made even more rare by moving the kickoffs up. Hester has returned them from 8 yards deep in the endzone for TDs despite the rule changes.

In seven seasons Hester has a total of 17 of them combined plus one missed FG return for a TD. That's 18 total during the regular season plus one in the SB. He's averaged over 2.5 of them per year and that's including a two year drought where he had none. No one else is even close to that. Sorry but the word prolific is almost an understatement when it comes to him.

Even after losing some of his best blockers year after year he bounces back once the new guys get with the flow of it and before this year is out they will and he'll have another TD return for a score. Bet you 1000 Bear Bucks he does. I can't see where he's lost any of his speed or elusiveness at all. Every year that we've used him more at WR his return game has suffered and this year is no different. He's still starting as the #2 guy at WR.

IMHO Hester is worth every penny of his salary AND that $5 mil roster bonus. What he's not worth is that extra $5 mil he'd get for being a top #1 WR and he won't get that so it's a moot point. So the only real question to me is whether or not Devin Hester is worth $5 mil per year more than Earl Bennett and I say he is.

I say that based on Hester ability to break a game open and the other guys down with a long kick or punt return for a TD. Or with a long TD pass, or with a short slant where he can leave the field of guys chasing him behind and out race them to the end zone like he did against Minny a few years back. Devin Hester can hurt you bad with just one play out of 60 whereas Earl Bennett can hurt you too but it would take 6 out of 60 to do it.

Devin Hester is another Gale Sayers but Earl Bennett is another Brian Piccolo. They're both worth having around and they each has proven it just like "Magic" and "Pic" did.
That's my opinion. :drinking61:

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Originally Posted by The Benjamin

Why would he restructure? Bears cut him if he doesn't, some team will sign him for a returner.

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See... That's exactly why he might want to stay... here he can restructure, stay a part of an offense that he already knows (that has plays designed around him) as a WR and playmaker, and get paid as a WR and a kick returner... or he can go somewhere else and just be a kick returner... and like I said in my last post... kick returners took a beating with the kickoff spot change. Too many touchbacks now. I seriously have doubts that many other teams will take him seriously as a WR and pay him as such... hell, the Bears barely did... and they didn't have any legit WRs until now.

And I'm not saying any of this to knock the dude, I friggin' love Devin Hester... I wouldn't have his jersey if I didn't. hahahaha

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Originally Posted by AtomicTommy

See... That's exactly why he might want to stay... here he can restructure, stay a part of an offense that he already knows (that has plays designed around him) as a WR and playmaker, and get paid as a WR and a kick returner... or he can go somewhere else and just be a kick returner... and like I said in my last post... kick returners took a beating with the kickoff spot change. Too many touchbacks now. I seriously have doubts that many other teams will take him seriously as a WR and pay him as such... hell, the Bears barely did... and they didn't have any legit WRs until now.

And I'm not saying any of this to knock the dude, I friggin' love Devin Hester... I wouldn't have his jersey if I didn't. hahahaha

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All depends how they want to restructure

They don't have to restructure his deal. It kind of does it automatically because he won't earn a $5 mil bonus in 2013 as a #1 WR because he isn't one.

The only thing to restructure would be to convert his roster bonus into a signing bonus if they extend his deal beyond 2013. Take away that $5 mil in escalators he would have earned as a #1 WR and his 2013 cap cost is only about $200k more than it is this year.

We're paying just about the same as we are Bennett as a WR. The big difference is the $5 mil roster bonus he gets and that's based on his continuing to make the roster and that's based as much on his return skills as anything.

If there's anyone around who doesn't think Hester's return skills are worth $5 mil a year I'd be happy to debate that but he isn't getting paid anymore as a WR than Bennett is.

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Originally Posted by soulman

They don't have to restructure his deal. It kind of does it automatically because he won't earn a $5 mil bonus in 2013 as a #1 WR because he isn't one.

The only thing to restructure would be to convert his roster bonus into a signing bonus if they extend his deal beyond 2013. Take away that $5 mil in escalators he would have earned as a #1 WR and his 2013 cap cost is only about $200k more than it is this year.

We're paying just about the same as we are Bennett as a WR. The big difference is the $5 mil roster bonus he gets and that's based on his continuing to make the roster and that's based as much on his return skills as anything.

If there's anyone around who doesn't think Hester's return skills are worth $5 mil a year I'd be happy to debate that but he isn't getting paid anymore as a WR than Bennett is.

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Great analysis soulman! I'd like your post but for some reason it won't let me. You always add some well researched responses to our discussions.

However, I'm pretty sure that in terms of cap hit it doesn't matter what they actually pay him. It matters what the max is they "could" pay him. So it will need to be restructured. Even if I'm wrong, dude isn't even worth 7 million IMO

I'd say he's worth 7mil in what he does for the O, not in caches/yards/td's necessarily, but in forcing a team to commit so much attention to him, w/Marshal getting 2x teamed, and Forte getting so much attention out of the backfield, the D now has to choose to risk Hester breaking the game open w/1 big play by ignoring him to cover Jeffery or Bennett, or covering Jeffery/Bennett and having a potential game breaker w/hester. You've seen it the last two games. Big TD grab then Big first down play. Again is he a better WR then Bennett, no but he is a more dangerous weapon that D's have to account for; and that opens up a lot of better WR's on the team.

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Originally Posted by XxMidwayMonstersxX

Great analysis soulman! I'd like your post but for some reason it won't let me. You always add some well researched responses to our discussions.

However, I'm pretty sure that in terms of cap hit it doesn't matter what they actually pay him. It matters what the max is they "could" pay him. So it will need to be restructured. Even if I'm wrong, dude isn't even worth 7 million IMO

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Thanks MM. :drinking61:

How that bonus is accounted for will determine what happens.

If that $5 mil in escalators is considered to be "UTBE" or "unlikely to be earned", and I believe it is, it won't count against the cap in 2013 and his cap cost will only be around $7.6 mil. If it is considered "LTBE", "likely to be earned", and I believe it's not, then if it's never earned and paid it will revert to the cap in 2014.

One way or the other he's never gonna see it and one way or another it will be recovered into the cap $$$ available. Most likely in 2013 but for certain in 2014.

As far the rest of the $7+ mil cap cost you have to ask yourself what he worth as the best return specialist ever to play the game? The Bears could reduce that $7.8 mil cap hit turning that $5 mil roster bonus into a signing bonus by extending his deal one more year with say a $2-$2.5 mil salary for 2014.

That way his cap cost reduces to roughly $4-$5 mil per year for 2013 and 2014 and only about a mil more per year than Bennett gets on average for those same two years. Even if he's not worth $5 mil more as a KR/PR he's surely worth $1 mil more.

If I was gonna try to restructure him that's how I'd go about it.

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Originally Posted by soulman

Thanks MM. :drinking61
How that bonus is accounted for will determine what happens.

If that $5 mil in escalators is considered to be "UTBE" or "unlikely to be earned", and I believe it is, it won't count against the cap in 2013 and his cap cost will only be around $7.6 mil. If it is considered "LTBE", "likely to be earned", and I believe it's not, then if it's never earned and paid it will revert to the cap in 2014.

One way or the other he's never gonna see it and one way or another it will be recovered into the cap $$$ available. Most likely in 2013 but for certain in 2014.

As far the rest of the $7+ mil cap cost you have to ask yourself what he worth as the best return specialist ever to play the game? The Bears could reduce that $7.8 mil cap hit turning that $5 mil roster bonus into a signing bonus by extending his deal one more year with say a $2-$2.5 mil salary for 2014.

That way his cap cost reduces to roughly $4-$5 mil per year for 2013 and 2014 and only about a mil more per year than Bennett gets on average for those same two years. Even if he's not worth $5 mil more as a KR/PR he's surely worth $1 mil more.

If I was gonna try to restructure him that's how I'd go about it.

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That's about the size of it then. I can't argue with a thing you've said there, which is a first. I usually don't agree with anything you say lol.

I'd take him at about 4 mil to the cap. Like benj said, return guys have taken. A hit and Hester has to face the music there. Even if he gets 3 return tds this year, it's still only 3 tds.

Good discussion here though, glad I posted this. So who would you take if you could only keep 1 soulman, all things considered.

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Originally Posted by XxMidwayMonstersxX

That's about the size of it then. I can't argue with a thing you've said there, which is a first. I usually don't agree with anything you say lol. :bah: (You're not the ex-Mrs soulman in disguise are you MM? She used to say that pretty often.) :lol-032:

I'd take him at about 4 mil to the cap. Like benj said, return guys have taken. A hit and Hester has to face the music there. Even if he gets 3 return tds this year, it's still only 3 tds. (Yeah but the value of those TDs as game breakers and the way they can demoralize an opponent have a much bigger impact that a 1 yard plunge. You have to admit that.)

Good discussion here though, glad I posted this. So who would you take if you could only keep 1 soulman, all things considered.

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Well that's a tough one to answer since right now I'd keep both no matter what.

They're each different weapons and each with a different purpose. Too much depends on things like whether or not Knox returns as the player he used to be, how much slack Weems could take up in the return game, how well Jeffery develops, who else may be on the roster or available, etc. I can't answer that question any differently today than I have.

Ask me again next spring if it comes down to that.