Thread: The Sky is Falling: Second Half Predictions.

I know, I'm a week early with this, but while discussing the Bears/Panthers game, i keep coming back to the realization that the 2nd half of our schedule is BRUTAL. So, ill chalk up next weeks game against the Titans as a win (we should blow them out anyway, theres only 2 of their games where they HAVENT given up 30 or more points this season), so i can discuss the dark gloomy shadows on the horizon.

Oh, but i can already see the twinkles in your eyes: The Bears are going to be 7-1!!...14-2 or 13-3 is right around the corner!! 1st or 2nd Seed!!! Superbowl baby!!!

Not so fast. Yes, the Bears should be 7-1 after the halfway point this year. And yes, the Bears are pretty much locks for a playoff spot (i dont even know the last 7-1 team to miss the playoffs). But the road to 14-2 and #1 seed is a bit more murky. So, i shall dissect our remaining 8 games and bring some of you back down to earth, or at bare minimum give you something to ponder before we smash the Titans.

(all stats are as of week 8)
Lets start with Week 10:

11/11 Houston Texans (6-1)
2012 Stats:
Passing: 18th
Rushing: 6th
Pass D: 5th
Rush D: 4th

Oh boy. Right off the bat, we will face one of, if not THE top team (and SB favorite) in the AFC. Also one of the top defenses in the league, and they just came off of a 43-13 shellacking of the Ravens in week 7. (and like Bears) Their only loss was against GB in week 6 (42-24). But, they are still averaging 30.8 Points per game, and their Defense is averaging 18.8 ppg (but if you get rid of that GB 42 points, their average is actually 14.3 ppg).

Overall, this is a very dangerous team on all sides of the football. They may be below average in the passing game, but their outstanding run game and defense more then makes up for that.

Gameday Breakdown:
Like i said, a dangerous team. However...for starters, this is a home game for the Bears. So thats always helpful. Also, even though the Texans are great with the rushing game, the Bears just happen to be #1 against the run...so thats another good matchup for the Bears. Unfortunately they have a stifling defense, much like the Bears, and top 5 in both Pass and rush D, so it is going to be difficult to put up points on them with Offense, especially seeing how we struggle at time to put up points offensively. Ultimately, it will be a defensive battle to start, until one of the offenses crack and allows the other to take advantage. If ever there was a game where we needed 2 Defensive TDs or a Hester return, this would be it.

11/18 @San Francisco 49ers (5-2)
2012 Stats:
Passing: 29th
Rushing: 2nd
Pass D: 1st
Rush D: 10th

As if the Texans game wasnt bad enough, we immediately follow it up by playing their NFCW Equivalent: the 49ers. This team is eerily similar to the Texans: Great run game, Great defense, but with a few slight differences. They are putting up fewer PPG (23.5), and doing so against much easier opponents (Buffalo, Jets, Lions) so their potential to put points on the board is much less compared to the Texans. Conversely, their defense is solid, only allowing 14.2 PPG, but this number is feast or famine: When they win, its usually 6 point or less they allow, but when they lose, its more then 20.

Gameday Breakown
Continuing off of my previous sentence, the key to beating SF is to put more then 21 points on the board. Unfortunately, doing so is easier said then done. Much like my Texans breakdown, this is a game where we could use a defensive or ST score. Putting 3 TDs on this team with offense alone is going to be difficult, especially through the air with their #1 Pass D. And while they are #2 in Rushing, the Bears are #1 in Rush D, so this is another game for the Bears D to live up to that ranking, particularly since they do not have to worry too much about Alex Smith and their 29th ranked Passing game. If we can shut down the run and get an early lead, then we can force them to throw, which will lead to turnovers and maybe even a score or 2 on D, which would blow this game wide open. KEY TO THE GAME: Stop the Run, Get an early lead.


11/25 Minnesota Vikings (5-3)
2012 Stats:
Passing: 25th
Rushing: 7th
Pass D: 12th
Rush D: 15th

And now comes the trap game. Right now, the Vikes are 5-3. Their upcoming schedule is Seattle, Detroit and us. So by the time they face us, they could be anywhere from 5-5 to 7-3, and the Bears could be anywhere from 9-1 to 7-3. And since this is a Black and Blue Division game, its close to impossible to predict how this will unfold. If the Bears squeak by Houston and SF, then they are in great shape going into this game. If the Bears drop 1 or 2 of those games, and the Vikes beat Seattle and Detroit, then this game will have HUGE implications for the division. Much will be at stake in this game.

Gameday Breakdown:
Yet again, the one area the Vikings excel at (Rushing), is also the one area the Bears lead the league in (Rush D), so its a good matchup for us. Also, being a Bears home game helps our chances. Vikes are decent to mediocre on the defensive side of the ball, so it should favor our Offense, especially for Forte and the Run game. Unfortunately, Minnesota is tied for second in the sacks department, so our OL is going to have to play exceptionally well to negate that Minnesota advantage.
KEYS TO THE GAME: Shut down Adrian Peterson, Protect Jay Cutler

12/2 Seattle Seahawks (4-4)
2012 Stats:
Passing: 31st
Rushing: 8th
Pass D: 8th
Rush D: 5th

I know what youre thinking...the Seahawks suck. Its engrained in our psyche, but dont be fooled!! Think of them as San Fran Lite: they suck at passing, but are pretty decent in the other aspects (Rushing and Defense most importantly). And while they seem to be struggling against their division rivals (losses to AZ, STL and SF), they also have played the underdog upset role in a few games: Beating New England, Dallas and GB (yes GB shouldve won...but they didnt. If GB was so good, then Seattle would never have been in the position to win by a measely TD).

In any case...this is our sleeper game. Bears face 2 tough games in a row, then a tough divisional against the Vikes, then follow it up with Seattle. Depending on how the first 3 games go, the bears could either be flying high on a 10-1 record with a 3 game (well 9 game technically) win streak, or they could be struggling to maintain lead in the NFC North with an 8-3 or 9-2 record, and this becomes either a trap game part II, or a struggle to stay ahead of Minny and GB in the division.

Gameday Breakdown:
Similar to the 49ers, only not quite as extreme: we can disregard their passing offense and focus on shutting down the run. Seahawks average 20ppg, but give up average of 19.0 ppg. But, with the exception of their Dallas win and 49ers loss, every game has been decided by 4 points or less, and all of them (except their 27-7 win over Dallas) has been by a TD or less. So expect a close game, probably low scoring, but one the Bears can definitely win.

12/9 @ Minnesota Vikings

Same team we played 2 weeks prior, only difference is it is on their home turf. Alot of things can happen in 2 weeks, but since its on their field, ill give a slight advantage to the Vikings. Bears can win, and should have their last game plan either ready to go again or scrapped for a new one (depending on what happened our last meeting).

12/16 Green Bay Crybabies (5-3)

2012 Stats:
Passing: 10th
Rushing: 24th
Pass D: 17th
Rush D: 17th

Just looking at their stats, it would seem the Packers are not all that great. But, as our lone loss this season, the Bears know better. Remember that they were essentially robbed of a win by the replacement refs, which would make them 6-2 and in the division hunt right below us. hehe...below us. blow. us. But yeah..Packers are far more dangerous then their stat sheet indicates. They are currently on a 3 game winning streak, but they too will be tested in the weeks ahead: AZ, Detroit twice, NYG, Minny, then us. If the Bears struggle and drop a few games, expect the Packers to catch up to us, making this game a possible fight for the division.

Gameday Breakdown:
Meh...should be common knowledge by all Bears fans by now: Shut down their run game, contain Rodgers, protect Cutler against their #1 Ranked sack machine. Sounds simple, but it never is. If we can do this on our home field, we should be able to get our revenge. If not, its going to be a struggle just to win this Division. Very Important game, this one is.

12/23 @Arizona Cardinals (4-3)
2012 Stats:
Passing: 27th
Rushing: 27th
Pass D: 4th
Rush D: 20th

Well, when the season started, the Cards shocked everyone, going 4-0. Now, they have lost 3 in a row, against such studs as St Louis, Buffalo and Minny, dropping them to 4-3 as they face the 9ers Monday night. While this game looks to heavily favor the Bears, theres still a chance we can get upset. Cardinals still have a solid Pass Defense, and are 4th in the league in sacks. This does not bode well for Cutler at all. Our D should have no problem shutting down the Cardinals offense, they only average 17.7 ppg, but only allow 16.8. If the Bears can rely on Forte and put some points up, this should be an easy win. If not, it could be a long game for Cutler, and the Bears might just squeak by because of our defense.

12/30 @Detroit Lions (3-4)
Meh, at this point...either we know what seed we are, or we are struggling to make the playoffs. If we are struggling, then we either lost to teams we shouldnt have (AZ, Sea, Minny), or we were beat by teams that will beat us in the playoffs then anyway (SF, GB, Hous). So..this game shouldnt matter either way. If we *need* this game to win and get in, then we are probably in trouble anyway. But, if we are locked in the #1 or #2 seed, then this game wont matter. Either way, its in Detroit, so ill say they win it.


Well...alot can happen over the next few weeks, but i hope this illustrates the point that the Bears have a tough road ahead of them. Either they will become battle tested and be primed for a SB push, able to beat anyone in our path after defeating some of the top teams already this year...or we will struggle and will magnify the glaring weaknesses on our team. In any case, should be a great 2nd half of the season.