Same shit, different Day - Draft Edition
Wanted to go a different direction and start a new topic. Kind of don't want more talk about the O or Cutler and how great Tillman or the D is. We all know that Tice isn't the best OC and never will be.
I thought about the upcoming draft and about what direction Emery will go. I found out that we have many many ways to go and that there are many possibly scenarios. I won't come up with names of players. That's why here are some more knowledge guys about the players that are headed into the draft. Haven't seen all of the guys you might consider and often only got limited time to see a player like Te'o.
What is really important for me is that we have a player that could start from day 1 at least in limited time and be a competent #2 who gets about 50% of the snaps/plays.
Let me start with the drafting position. I don't think we will draft in the Top20 and I assume that we won't trade up into the Top20. If we draft #20-#26 the TE position would be a reach. The value we would get for our pick wouldn't be worth the player we get. Could draft a TE in the 2nd too in this case. If we draft #27-#32 this changes a little. Here you can get a TE that would be worth his value but he has to be the best TE of this year.
We are finally set at saftey, it would be stupid to waste a 1st on this position. Same seems to go for CB. We have our starters + Hayden who can and will stay and Moore. No reason to draft Tillmans eventual replacement this year. He may play another 3-5 years. Jennings has 1 year left on his contract too and will be a Bear next season.
Briggs is the same as Tillman. He is elite at his position and as long as he has football left, he will stay and will play as starter. WLB (or ROLB) is set with Briggs. SLB (or LOLB) we have Roach. He isn't the best at his position but he is a great fit for our team and can play MLB in case of injury. He is signed too. He will remain the starter at his position and it's not really a weakness.
Brian Urlacher is a big factor going into the draft. We will have a lot talk going forward about him. We won't know how much he has left and if he can play 0-3 more years as a starter. Replace him with a 1st rounder would be fine for me, but only if he retires. He won't sign with another team, really can't imagine this. The question is, will he sign with us. If we win the SB, I think he retires. Nothing more to prove and best time to call it a career. If we lose the SB, he will not retire and will play on 1 leg if needed. If he stays, you don't bring in his replacement in THIS years draft. You do it 1 year later or via Free Agency. Or Roach will play in the middle and we need to find a ROLB/SLB. I don't prefer that because Roach isn't that good over 16+ games to play this important position. I even think Hardin could play that postion. He is an even bigger question mark.
DL is good, has depth and we just drafted a DE with a 1st rounder. Peppers, Wooton, Izzy, McClellin. That's good enough. Paea is a starter as is Melton. I don't see why we won't extend him. He will get his money and will stay with us. Perfect fit and he knows it. There have been talks with his agent about this in the past. Players like Okoye, Collins or Toe can be find every year via Free Agency.
QB is set with Cutler.
RB is set with Forte & Bush signed longterm + Allen or whoever as #3.
WR is a position with good depth. Marshall, Jeffery & Bennett signed, Hester too. Just drafted a WR in the 2nd. Not a position we have to draft this year. I know you can never have enough good WRs as you can never have enough CBs
TE is a position we need to find a better option at. We don't have a pass catching TE that Cutler trusts and can trust. Olsens blocking sucked, but Cutler had faith in him and you saw it on the field. We have Davis and those blocking TEs. Like I said before, a TE has to be great to be drafted in the 1st round. Good TEs can be found in the later rounds
We all know about or OL. IF we win the SB, we have more time to build the OL IMO. Webb just isn't good enough. LG is a position that needs to be upgraded. Garza is solid and some kind of a leader. Louis has to stay and Carimi gets the benefit of the doubt being in what basically is his rookie season and being drafted in the 1st round. His run blocking is good enough. Needs more work.
LG just isn't a position you draft in the 1st round. Unless you have a talent like DeCastro was.
If we don't win the SB, we have to upgrade the LT position for sure. The problem would be that we need a player that is great and can help NOW without doubts. Long and Clady are Free Agents to be as of now. Those would be the guys we need to sign as sure upgrades.
Not sure if all is logic and if you will agree, but it's way too early to talk about the Draft :-D
I came down to...
#1 priority is MLB if Urlacher retires/leaves (and we won't sign a Free Agent who is a Top10 MLB in the league in the rankings for 3 years now)
#2 priority is DT if Melton leaves for whatever reason
#3 priority is LT if we can't sign a FA that is a sure upgrade
#4 priority is a pass catching TE and only if we draft late late in the 1st round
#5 priority is a LG and I'm talking about the best LG in the class and only if he is close to DeCastro (a shame that he misses this year)
long text in short
unless we have to replace Urlacher or Melton via the Draft, go OLine with the 1st
If you find some typing faults, feel free to ignore them
Last edited by GermansbombedPH; 11-06-2012 at 07:29 AM.
The one thing that I would have to disagree with is not drafting a MLB if Urlacher stays. I think you DO want to bring someone in to learn from him. Having him on the team and mentoring a new kid is something that we should not pass up. Brian knows he doesn't have many years left. He will be more than happy to do everything he can to bring the next person along and we need to take advantage of that.
The question is where do you put MLB on the priority list if Urlacher stays. Obviously it becomes less of a priority so maybe you go OL first. Then if you are in the second round, are there any LB that are worthy of carrying on for Urlacher?
Always tough to find good talent later in the rounds, but NE seems capable of doing it so I think the key is excellent scouting and excellent player development. I hope that we have addressed the first issue, but other than Marinelli and Toub, I really don't think we are very good at this.
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te ol lb in no specific order is where I would start my scouting. And if a bad ass wr falls to us I wouldnt shy away from another weapon
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I don't want us to "reach" just to fill a need. I came down to... #1 priority is MLB if Urlacher retires/leaves (and we won't sign a Free Agent who is a Top10 MLB in the league in the rankings for 3 years now) #2 priority is DT if Melton leaves for whatever reason #3 priority is LT if we can't sign a FA that is a sure upgrade #4 priority is a pass catching TE and only if we draft late late in the 1st round #5 priority is a LG and I'm talking about the best LG in the class and only if he is close to DeCastro (a shame that he misses this year) #6 SLB #7 CB
But we have critically important needs all the same.
So, I'm thinking you pick the best talent available when Emery pulls the draft trigger in each round. Then you backfill your remaining needs through FA.
Yes, it will cost some serious money. But with the oline I just don't see how we can fix things in one off-season through the draft alone. We've seen what happens when Tice tries to coach up "projects"...it's pretty hit-and-miss (mostly misses).
At this point we don't have a solid offensive tackle on our roster. Carimi may, or may not, work out in the NFL as a tackle. You're probably not going to get a solid o-tackle in the third round. Might as well keep Webb if that's the plan (why replace one dud with another dud?). However, you CAN get solid interior linemen in rounds 2 through 4, most years.
Last edited by JustAnotherBearsFan99; 11-06-2012 at 10:44 AM.
Trestman - Kromer - Tucker - DeCamillis
I'm looking forward to seeing these guys coach. Hope they're good.
Interesting discussion, as very premature as it is. There's a ton of moving parts here and this may change a dozen times over between now and draft time depending on events and players going forward. But, at the half way point of a (so far) very successful season, here's my take on it as it stands right now:
1) People are getting way too down on Carimi at this point. Yeah, he's been struggling badly lately, but this is in effect his rookie season and he's coming off a serious injury and big surgery. He's both revoering and developing at the same time so it will be at least a year from now before he can be assessed fairly. I still believe that he will become a quality RT for us for a long time.
2) There is no way we be in a position to draft an "outta the box LT". We will be nowhere near the top-10 where you need to be to do so and even Kalil, a 3rd overall pick, has had his struggles this year (see #1 above re Carimi). No way we will trade up that far as it would be prohibitively expensive. If we want a Webb upgrade LT, it is going to have to come in FA. That, if even possible (those guys may be re-signed with their current teams or be tagged), will be expensive. I'm no salary cap guru, but that would likely mean making some cap space somehow.
3) I disagree with the OP about the MLB spot. We do need to get BU's eventual successor on board asap so he can be groomed for a year or two (I do expect BU to stick around and play well enough for another 1-2 seasons for this to be possible. If we win the SB or he re-injures himself, then all bets are off). The wildcard in this is SheaMc. If, as some have suggested, he could become our future MLB (a big "IF") then problem solved and we just need to draft another young DE. Probably not. Therefore I see a future MLB as one of our top 2 draft priorities if there's a player available who fits the bill. This isn't going to be T'eo in all liklihood as he's looking right now to be a top-15 kind of pick (like Kuechley was last year) but that could change too.
4) The other top draft priority has to be an OLman. Since LT is not gonna happen and RT shouldn't be a draft issue this year, I would strongly favor looking for an OC say in the 2nd round. Garza is aging and he could help groom his replacement maybe for one more year max at OC until the draftee takes over in '14. Find me someone like Wisniewski was in the 2nd for Oakland two drafts ago.
5) In summary, that makes it some combo of LB and interior OL in rounds 1 and 2. We don't have 3rd round pick. LT, if possible, needs to come in FA depending upon player availablibilty and cap considerations (more below).
6) The remainder of the draft (4th, 5th, 7th since we don't have a 6th either) is a bpa crapshoot. Our TEs suck, that's one possibility. Another would be to find some smallish speedster WR (think TY Hilton type) to replace Knox whom I doubt will be back sadly as a deep threat and return man. Its rare that 4th+ draft picks do anything for a few years if ever so its just trying to find a "hidden gem" who can fill a niche eventually. Doesn't matter either side of the ball to me.
7) Cap considerations: After this year, Spaeth should be cut loose. I'd keep KDavis and ERod and maybe Eldridge if he shows something. Campbell will be gone for sure so finding a cheaper #2 QB will also help here. Spencer will be gone too. Now I'm going to say something that will be considered sacriligious by many. Hester has an overly expensive contract. He's still a return threat but clearly not what he once was. As a WR, we all know he's very replaceable and doesn't add much except as a vertical runner to keep DBs honest a few times a game. Painful to say, but it may be time to move on from DH especially if he's not willing to renegotiate (down) his deal. Maybe we could get a 4th-5th round pick or something for him in trade, maybe not. But this offseason, esp if a FA LT is a priority, looks like a time where his "cost" could exceed his value to the team going forward. I know that seems unthinkable, but it may become necessary to consider.
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It's just to early to say exactly how we should go about drafting. After we finish the year, after the Combine and after FA we can nail it down but for now it's a little like pissin' in the wind. Tough to tell which way it's gonna go.
Here's what probably needs to be on the table as far as the draft is concerned and my reason and rationale for it. Certain spots we typically draft and other we look for help in FA just as often or more often than we draft for that position. I'll use that to build on.
1) MLB - Having a strong MLB is a Bears tradition and that's a spot we always draft so look for that position to be high on the list. Urlacher will call it quits when he's ready and we need to let that happen. In the meantime we draft a guy who can work his way into starting there and could play SLB while he does. It's time to get a guy in the MLB "hopper".
2) CB - We won't ever pay to dollar for an All Pro CB as long as we run the defense we do. Man on man cover corners are actually worse off in this defense than others. Zack Bowman is a great example of that. The guy isn't a bad ball player but he just doesn't play well in zone coverage. If we find a big body CB late in the first two rounds we should take him and add an heir apparent behind Peanut too. He may still have two or three more good years in him but just like Urlacher it has to end sometime.
3) OG - Any good interior line prospect that slips in either of the first two rounds should be on the table as well. A guy who could play both OG and OC would be ideal. Garza is also reaching the end of the line in another year or two and since it takes a bit to work a guy into the mix we shouldn't pass a good prospect up if he falls to us. Louis looks like he's set but LG is still not a sure thing and ordinarily a rookie OG will play much better than a rookie OC or OT.
What we shouldn't be looking to draft are these positions day one.
1) OT - Not only is the crop thin to begin with but we're not gonna get the immediate help we may need in the draft. Any first day starter will be gone before the 5th pick. If Webb can't handle LT then this is where I think Emery has to take out the check book and buy a good one. LT is really the last piece of the offensive puzzle that needs to be addressed and there are few enough to go around so even though it's an expensive proposition any team with SB hopes has to have a LT who can protect his QB. So far we don't have that and we need it.
2) TE - Why draft another when we already have three we drafted or signed as rookie UDFAs now plus we just traded away one we took with a first round pick? So let's not play the guessing game any longer. Whatever we need and/or whoever we need at TE go find him in FA or via trade. I still think our scheme and coaching is what's causing the lack of production at TE and not the lack of talent but if I'm wrong then at least go buy the right talent and stop screwing around. TE is not all that highly paid a position anyway so it's not like we need to spend $10 mil on one. Not even half that. Go find another Des Clark. He was one of the best FA finds Angelo ever came up with.
Well there's my 2 cents on this topic. These are the five positions that could use upgrading and/or depth. I think that it's possible to get good ILBs, Zone CBs, and OG/OCs later in rounds one or two. Those positions don't hold the premium that pass rushers (DEs or OLBs) do or really good DTs. Any OT that's taken after the 10th pick overall is a bit of a question mark anyway and Cover CBs will always go before the Tillman types. So to me the positions I listed to draft are where we can find great value picks later on day one or two.
We don't own a 3rd pick right now and I'm not even gonna go past that round. The only place we're likely to get who or what we want is in one or two. The other needs we should fill in FA where so far Emery has proven to be very good.
Last edited by soulman; 11-06-2012 at 02:46 PM.
I'm getting to that age where a lifetime warranty just doesn't mean as much to me anymore as an afternoon nap. Honey Badger Don't Care. Honey Badger Don't Give a Shit.
So , who are the FA's the Bears sign this coming year? Are there any trades? Sorry, but DRAFT talk is way way too early for me. Do any of the PICKS you have in mind get hurt from here on out? Too many unknowns. But I can tell you the BEARS draft last in the draft, ( LOL ) GO BEARS.
The passion of a few, to rule the many, that's Washington D.C.. Where else was that said before, about whom?
Originally Posted by bearsinhouston
I don't see a reason why we should draft a player in the 1st round that will sit on the bench for about 16+ games. If BU stays, we don't draft a ILB. This just doesn't make any sense. Mentoring the 1st rounder? That's fine when it is Rodgers behind Favre for 1 year. We have other holes to fill.
Originally Posted by MPBears68
We need a TE, we need OLine badly. We could need another or better DT too. Especially if Melton goes.
Shea is not a ILB. If anything, it would be Hardin. As I've seen him so far, he would be good for this position if healthy and if he learns how to tackle right.
Just tired of all the same talk that happens for a few weeks now ;)
Originally Posted by yttocs
Isn't Laurenaitis a Free Agent? He would be a good replacement for BU
OG Chance Warmack (Alabama) would be a player I think that would be very usefull for us. Looks to be the best Guard this year and could start from Day 1. Not a DeCastro but worth getting picked around #29-#32
Last edited by GermansbombedPH; 11-07-2012 at 02:03 AM.
Laurenaitis received an extension at the beginning of the year. Which is too bad.
Chance Warmack: I thought I read that he was rated almost as high as Decastro. So that'd be pretty good if he could fall to us. A MLB probably won't fall to us in FA or the draft, sadly enough.
I don't really like what is left in Free Agency other than Urlacher. Ogletree seems not to be a player that our FO wants. Was found with weed and this minor whatever it was off the field. Te'o will be out of reach for us and to be fair, I think he would be wasted in our Defense with the way he plays. Te'o would be perfect fit with the Steelers, but they won't get him too.
Other than that, there is no player to replace Urlacher.
FAs I wouldn't mind
we have to replace Urlacher, Roach and Hayes as of now. They will all be Free Agents. I'd keep Hayes for depth and at least 1 of Urlacher/Roach.
can you tell me more about
- Kevin Minter LSU
- Nico Johnson Alabama
- Michael Mauti Penn State