Thread: How the West Was Won.

Get to Know Your Opponent:
With a record of 6-2-1, the San Francisco 49ers boast one of the leagues best defenses, allowing opponents just 14.1 points per game. They are a tough, old-school, run the football and play good defense, smash-mouth type of team. They are well coached by Head Coach Jim Harbaugh (former Bear!), Offensive Coordinator Greg Roman, and Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio.

It is worth noting that last year, under Greg Roman's system, the 49ers offense had just 10 turnovers which ranks tied in NFL history for the fewest turnovers in a single season. This achievement can be attributed to Roman's conservative run first, protect the football, offensive philosophy. Also worth noting is that defensively, the 49ers did not allow a rushing touchdown through 14 games last season and allowed just 3 rushing TD's all season (fewest since the NFL went to 16 game seasons in 1978). In 2012 they have continued to be stingy, giving up only 3 rushing TD's through 9 games.

Key Player Comparison:

	Attempts	Yards	Average	TD		Targets	Receptions	Reception %	Receiving Yards	Receiving TD	Total Utilization
Frank Gore:	140	753	5.38	5		24	19	79%	139	0	164
Matt Forte:	123	578	4.70	3		33	22	67%	176	0	156
	Completion	Attempts	Comp. %	TD	Int	Yardage	Avg. QBR
Alex Smith:	152	217	70%	13	5	1,731	104.1
Jay Cutler:	151	255	59%	12	10	1,814	80.4
	Receptions	Targets	Comp. %	TD	Yardage
M. Crabtree	44	61	72%	4	510
B. Marshall	67	103	65%	7	904

Analysis of the Numbers:
First, these are only a few statistics taken from the key offensive players of each team. I am not going to belabor the post by providing an insane amount of statistics. We all know there is more to a game than statistics, I ask that you simply take it for what its worth.

With that out of the way, one trend jumps right out at me...Brandon Marshal is responsible for almost half (48.6%) of Jay Cutlers passing yards this season, unbelievable! I had no idea it was that much. Secondly, both teams run the ball exceptionally well, averaging over 4 yards per carry with their number 1 running backs. If these statistics make anything clear, it is that we need to pound the ball on the ground early and often (more on that later). Running has a low turnover risk and its what we do well, we just need to do it more! Running pays the biggest dividends if you start early and stick with it, hopefully we will not be tempted to go to the air too much early.

Although Gore is not known for his pass catching abilities, the numbers reveal that they do go to him as a check-down and he is effective when he catches the ball (7.3 yards per reception average). Look for San Francisco to throw his way a lot if Smith can't go on Monday night.

As for Chicago, it seems that we need to get our other receivers involved in the game. If B. Marshall is collecting half of the passing yards, then that means our other receivers aren't contributing enough. Getting Alshon Jeffery back will be a tremendous help as Devin Hester has not shown he is capable of becoming a solid #2 or even #3 receiver in the NFL. The coaching staff needs to find a way to get Jeffery and Bennett more involved in the offense.

My belief is that we need to use less blockers and just "risk it." Considering Jay Cutler has the highest sack per pass attempt ratio in the NFL, having more blockers in the game really isn't helping much. In other words, if your sack-mitigation strategy isn't working (and its not) then you need to do something different. Coming out in max protect with one receiver on the field and a check-down to Forte is the same as shouting at the defense "Hey we are passing, don't worry about the run! Just pick a gap and shoot (which is every D-Lineman's wet dream)."

It almost reminds me of that baseball movie "Bull Durham" where Kevin Costner plays a catcher who gets pissed off at his pitcher and tells the batter what the next pitch is, the batter then hits the ball out of the park of course. What did we do to deserve this Tice? Are you pissed at us? Pissed at Jay maybe for threatening to get you fired too? Stop Pulling-a-Durham on us Tice!

How to Beat San Francisco:

In San Francisco's two losses (and 1 tie) this season two common trends have emerged. First, the opposing team ran early, often, and STUCK WITH THE RUN. The Vikings and Giants each rushed the ball exactly 34 times, while the Rams ran it 36 times. Only the Giants averaged over 4 yards per carry and even that was due to some big plays late in the game (anything over 4 ypc is considered a "good day running" by most NFL teams/analysts). The point is, this team can be set up for deep passes, keep at the run even if there are some 3 and outs. Another 16 rush game from Forte all but guarantees defeat for the Bears (unless its combined with a 16 rush game from Bush as well , but I doubt it.)

The second trend is pressure, pressure, and more pressure! The Rams registered 5 sacks, the Vikings 3 (and a lot of hurries), and the Giants put up a whopping 6 sacks in the 26 to 3 beat-down they handed the 49ers. I think QB pressure will be even more key than usual in this game considering the 49ers don't make many mistakes and when they do, its because other teams forces them into bad positions. We certainly have the personnel to get pressure on the QB even though the 49ers have one of the leagues better offensive lines, but the absence of Shea McClellin could hurt us more than usual.


Well, that's about it guys. Thanks for reading and I'm looking forward to reading your responses!