Thread: Will Marinelli and Toub stay if the new HC wants to keep them?

I think an awful lot would depend upon who that new HC was and even IF there's a new HC.

I believe Marinelli would do things a bit differently if he didn't have Lovie looking over his shoulder and I sometimes wonder if like Rivera he's not gonna lose his patience with it as well. I'd like Marinelli to stay. Now that he has better pass rushers his influence is becoming more obvious especially with guys like Melton and Wootton who were not prime draft picks but who have both become very effective players both against the run and as rush men as Marinelli likes to call them.

His guys play hard for him. Between Izzy and Wootton we've had 12.5 sacks from the LDE spot so far this year vs 5.0 last year and we may end up with several more. Wootton has brought consistent pressure and created turnovers in addition to those sacks and he's the main reason why there was no need to rush McClellin into a full time role before he has the size and experience to handle it. Melton has become a far better DT against the run this year and Marinelli has gotten good spot play out of Paea, Collins and Okoye in the rotation. He's coached that line up out of almost nothing and whether or not he's a great OC (that's hard to tell with Lovie around) he is a great DLine coach.

I also believe that if Marinelli stays and is allowed to he'll work on turning McClellin into more of a pass rushing weapon in the way the Packers use Matthews. Lovie keeps on insisting the McC is a DE and not a LB but Marinelli has moved him around a lot trying to find ways to take advantage of his motor and play making skills. McC hasn't been what many thought he'd me when we drafted him but in his part time role has been an effective play maker and this is what I think Marinelli would continue to expand on including using him as an OLB/Rushbacker and allowing him to blitz which is something Lovie likes to resist. McClellin is a good football player period and I believe Marinelli would continue to find ways to use him more effectively as a play maker. My fear is that if it was left up to Lovie alone we'd see just one more player being misused based on his true skills as a player which are many.

I think any new HC would be a fool not to ask Dave Toub to stay and maybe even consider him for another post as OC or even DC is those spots aren't filled in other ways. The only other coach on this team who has consistently made good players out of left overs and table scraps is Toub and he's done it year in and year out. Zack Bowman may not be a great CB but the guy has come back and played his heart out for Toub as a STeams guy, McManis and Costanza have been brought in and done well. We cut Toubs 2nd best STeams coverage guy (DeCicco) in camp and yet Toub adjusts and even if teh return teams have had an off year his coverage units have still excelled. Point blank the guy knows how to coach football players which is a hell of a lot more than can be said for much of the rest of the staff at least on the offensive side of the ball.

Toub has been a HC candidate and I believe his name will continue to come up in that capacity. If Lovie is let go Dave Toub should get SERIOUS consideration for the Bears top spot. He knows the team and the personnel as well as anyone, in all likelihood he would keep Marinelli and much of the rest of the defensive staff on, he may at least give Bates a shot at the OC spot to retain some continuity for Cutler, and Toub himself was an OLineman and has coached that position before albeit not at a pro level. If anything I think he'd realize the importance of finding the right combination of players, scheme and coaching that are needed to get that offense operating as it should. He addresses blocking often as it relates to his return teams and I think he realizes that this is where all of the turnover these last two years along with injuries has hurt them the most in that way.

Because his units have both and offensive and defensive part to play I believe he understands both concepts well enough to lead in both areas. Obviously he would need a strong and experienced OC and DC working with him but this is where guys like Marinelli and Bates or a guy like Norv Turner may come in. I think guys will play just as hard and with just as much respect for Toub as they do for Lovie. I think Toub would listen more, be less aloof, less stubborn and inflexible, less detached and seemingly almost arrogant, more emotional and a better game day field manager and I don't think he would so consistently over estimate the abilities of certain players the way Lovie seems to.

Well there you have it. Nobody really asked this question but I figured as long as we've begun to become convinced that Lovie's HC era has run it's course and little more can be accomplished with him in the drivers seat I thought I'd advance this possibility. I'm not saying Lovie should be fired. I'm still somewhat ambivalent about that. But IF he is I think Emery would be remiss in his duties if he didn't at least give Dave Toub serious consideration for the HC job. Why?

Pretty much what I said. If you want to turn this team around quickly the less unnecessary change over in player and coaching personnel the better. It would be nice to keep Marinelli and much of the defensive staff around it would be nice not to put Cutler through his 4th OC in five years. Naming Bates to that spot would eliminate that for the most part. Toub knows Oline play and I think along with Emery and Bates he can find some solutions that would help that Tice could not. Either that or he demotes Tice back to being just the line coach again. That much Tice did fairly well last year.

There's on other factor to be considered in this whole thing that we know will be in the hearts and minds of Ted Phillips and the McCaskey's and that's $$$. If we let Lovie go we still owe him $5.5-$6 mil for 2013 not to mention his three $1 mil plus per year lieutenants and the rest of the staff. That's about $10 mil the McCaskeys will be flushing down the shitter of the whole coaching staff is replaced less of course what they may get elsewhere if they're rehired. Take that into consideration along with missing out on playoff revenues and I think we can all see that the decision gets a lot more complex than just "throw the bums out" and start over. This is the Bears we're talking about and while they're not exactly cheap they're also not spend thrift foolish.

Coaches like Gruden or Cowher or any other big name you want to toss out there are guys that will want around $7 mil per year and a five year deal. Their staffs will also be costly. Somehow I don't see the Bears laying out $20 mil plus next year for their old and new coaching staff. Anyone disagree with me? If they did that would be a first in my 40 plus years of watching them. Any discussion about a coaching change has to consider this. It's a big part of the equation and there is no more assurance and that Bill Cowher or "Chucky" Gruden would get us back to a SB within a year or two than we have now.

A guy like Dave Toub is probably a $2-$2.5 mil per year HC who may be able to retain a fairly large number of the staff already under contract and may be willing to take a three year deal. That in my opinion and based on the current roster of developmental types, core players under contract and those who will get extensions, and the ages of the productive defensive and offensive leaders is about all the longer this dog will hunt without a pretty big makeover of personnel. IMHO this is the easiest, cheapest, and fastest way to make a shift at the top without completely losing what momentum has been established but is often lost by seasons end.

It might work and then again it might not but life or the NFL offer no guarantees. Only things that are likely or unlikely to happen. It getting to the point where it seems like keeping Lovie around is unlikely to produce any different results than it has over the past 5 years and at best those results have been very mediocre. Frankly with Lovie at the helm I don't see a team that will finish better than we do this year at best and with a guy like Toub as HC I don't see it much worse either but at least there would be a change in the culture that I've begun to see and call "learning to live with mediocrity", "the saga of Lovie Smith's Chicago Bears".

So I put this out there as a thought. Not the best or the only one but one that has some merit and may well be in the mix when all is said and done. Fire away with your thoughts and opinions.

We let Lovie go we're on the hook for what $6M. How does it work with Assistants? We are on the hook for their remaining contracts as well if we let them go, correct? Anyone know how much that is total if we clean house, and how that impacts our cap?

Originally Posted by bearsinhouston

Soul -- honestly I can't disagree with anything you've said.

However, there is an opportunity cost that also must be considered. What will it cost to bring in another low paid HC that might end up worse than Lovie? You'd have to figure in additional players that were brought in to the scheme and had to be flushed. His coordinators that have to be flushed.

All of this can happen even with a highly paid successful coach. But you have to put probablilities on these options and figure out as best you can an end cost for various options. What fans will think (players may not care, but you can bet ownship does) and how much revenue that might cost. The years you would perhaps have to stay with that staff until you were sure they were not being successful, etc. Lots of variables.

Not saying you can make up that delta, but it may narrow the numbers enough to say "what the hell, lets fix it right". Not sure. I am one to invest what it takes to fix a problem, but none of what you said is wrong IMO and they may in fact go that route. I wouldn't agree, but I would understand.

Like I said houston there are no guarantees and on that we both agree. I'm not saying not to do it but I'm considering two things. The best way to solve the problem in the quickest and seemingly most efficient way possible and just as importantly WHO it is that's trying to solve the problem.

Never in the history of the Chicago Bears have they ever hired a high profile HC of another team. The closest they came was hiring some high profile DCs like they did with Neil Armstrong back in the late 70s and again with Wannstedt in the early 90s and in both cases they were failures. Lovie is actually the first DC type hire whose had any success at all. Maybe we should be thrilled with that.

Ditka was a TEs and STeams coach at Dallas when Halas brought him in. When Halas retired from coaching he gave the job to two of his assistants just as he had done every time he'd taken a leave of absence prior to that. First to Jim Dooley and second to Abe Gibron. Then Finks came along and they finally went outside the team with Pardee and then Armstrong. Halas didn't consult with Finks when he hired Ditka and Finks eventually left because of it.

I guess what I'm saying is that the Bears have a tradition of looking within to find coaching talent or hiring DCs from other teams. This seems to have often led to our having crappy offenses so maybe it's time we changed our approach. The question though is besides Gruden what previously successful offensive mastermind is out there just waiting for Emery's call? Personally I can't think of one which makes it all that much more likely that Lovie will stay be default because better cannot be found.

Given the Bears history and rather conservative ways the two scenarios I see that are most likely is the one where Lovie is retained and we find another OC (possibly Bates)and offensive staff or we find another HC who will actually take the job. If your looking for previous NFL SB winners for your A list it will be a short one. So......if we're gonna end up with someone else's coordinator of something why not look at one of our own whose been very successful, is available, may actually want the job, and is already ingrained in the traditions of the Chicago Bears?

It makes perfect sense which is probably why it won't happen anyway.

Originally Posted by motownbear

I think we can do better in a top five market then giving the job to Toub.

Mo if you can give me two or three A listers who you think would actually take the job I'd love to see their names. I think you're kidding yourself if you believe guys with previous SB success as HCs will be lining up outside Emery's door.

I think you might dangle something in front of a Bill Cowher and maybe get a sniff of interest because he's accustomed to coaching for an old line organization with a ton of tradition but who else?

The top guys would be OCs and DCs from other teams or top college coaches and the track record of success those guys have in the NFL with no previous NFL experience isn't very good. Harbaugh is an exception mainly because he was a pretty good NFL QB and comes from a family of coaches.

I'm not saying give it to Toub but I am saying that for all the reasons I listed he's worth talking to about it. Don't you agree?

Originally Posted by Rakk

We let Lovie go we're on the hook for what $6M. How does it work with Assistants? We are on the hook for their remaining contracts as well if we let them go, correct? Anyone know how much that is total if we clean house, and how that impacts our cap?

It has no impact on the cap Rakk. That only deals with player's salary and bonuses.

Coaching contracts are typically guaranteed unless they contain some kind of buyout provision and I've never been aware of the Bears doing that. So all the monies due them in 2013 will have to be paid less whatever the make if they hire on elsewhere.

So if Lovie is due $5.5 mil or so and he coaches nowhere in 2013 he gets his $5.5 mil. If he lands and DC job somewhere for $1 mil the Bears pay the other $4.5 mil. Same with the other coaches.

It's an expensive propostion to clean house across the board. One of the reason why Lovie got the job initially is that he came for around $1 mil or so and his staff was mostly former college guys with little or no NFL experience hired cheaply as well because we still owed $$$ to Jauron and his staff.

Like I said, the Bears aren't cheap but they also don't have millions to toss away like a Jerry Jones or a Pat Bowlen.

I tell you what will happen... Emery will fire Smith. The new coach will be a guy with an offensive background and a history with Emery. He will bring in HIS guy for that job. Who could that be? Don't know for sure who fits but I know that Todd Haley fits this. He was always a OC or HC and would want to install his own O. Bates could stay as OC in this case cause Haley would be the one that has the say in the O. Cutty happy, Marshall happy, Haley happy, owners happy cause the save some money.

On the defensiv side, I'm sure he wouldn't be against having a guy like Marinelli being his DC. Again, the players know him and we already have to pay him.

I doubt that Toub would stay. He will get a chance to be a HC and this time he will get the job. If not, offer him to stay and expand his role a bit.


Tice, Drake and whoever the OLine Coach is will get fired.