Well here we sit without a new HC and this weekend the interviews continue. So what do we actually know so far other than the fact that Phil Emery is on a mission and that's he's detailed and extremely focused and well prepared. That part makes me feel good.
But here's what we need to be looking at for clues. He says that he would like to name a new HC by or before Jan. 19th. One week from today. So how do the playoffs affect those guys who seem to be highest on the list?
Well Trestman is available now which maybe why we're getting the rumors about him that we are. Arians is now too but are their any health concerns with him and will his age go against him? But either of them could be named the Bears HC tomorrow. They have no other obligations but what about some of the others.
McCoy may or may not be immediately available. We'll know later today. The same with Tom Clements but I don't think he's in the top five let alone the top three.
Rick Dennison is a wild card here. Cutler really likes him and so do I. He's a smart guy and very good line coach and God knows we need one. He was OC in Denver while Cutler, Marshall and Bates were here but in Shanny's offense that was more title than responsibility. Much like the Bears defense under Lovie the Broncos ran what Shanny said they'd run and Dennison coordinated but didn't design much else but the blocking schemes to make it work. Bates was the QB coach and play caller during that era as well so there's a lot of connection here that tell me he's the dark horse in this thing. If NE beats Houston tomorrow he becomes immediately available even if McCoy doesn't. I think he's a "could be" top three.
Bevell is in somewhat the same situation and becomes available immediately if Seattle loses to Atlanta in Atlanta which seems at least likely. I'm kind of discounting him as serious contender though since he replaced Bates in Seattle and my guess right now is that the Bears and Cutler would like to keep Bates around to establish some continuity in the transition. I don't know of that happens if Bevell comes in so I don't count him as a serious contender either.
The rest of the names have to be somewhat farther down on the list if in Emery's thinking he wants to bring in a guy to build his offense around Cutler and everything he's said so far has indicated that's what he wants out of a new HC. I think anyone who isn't willing to stick it out with Cutler will get aced from that list and it has to be a guy who can help get Cutler back on track to stardom. Someone pointed out that the biggest gap between the Bears and the Packers right now is the play of their respective QBs and I agree with that assessment. That IS that biggest difference.
So if we sleuth this out the two best candidates as far as that goes are probably Arians and Trestman and it's hard to pick a front runner between them. Arians has more recent NFL experience going for him AND the job he did with Luck and the Colts in Pagano's absence but his age and possible health concerns may be an issue.....maybe. Trestman has youth and a strong previous track record as an NFL OC and he's actually worked with Cutler before in the offseason so he's more likely to stick with him whereas Arians may be looking for another Andrew Luck with less bad habits to break. So it's a real tossup here.
McCoy is next and probably as close or at the top of the list but if the Broncos make a run all the way to the show will Emery be willing to wait? That will put him at least a couple of weeks behind his goal of having his guy by 1/19. One of the best things you can say about McCoy though is that as an OC he's found a way to make an offense work regardless of who his QB is. Given Cutler's tendency to miss a couple of games each year I think we could expect better results from his backup than we've seen these last couple of years. There's also a pretty good likelihood that he'd keep Bates on in some capacity as well. Maybe as his OC.
So those are my top three; McCoy, Trestman, and Arians in that order with Dennison as the dark horse to make the top three if one of the others gets bumped for whatever reason.
These guys are all great offensive coaches which to me says there's a good chance they'll keep the defensive staff, or most of it, intact at least for next season. The defense works as it is and to me keeping Marinelli and signing Urlacher go a long way towards keeping it that way for now and improve the odds that if the offense can get on track then we're right back in the hunt nest year. If this new guy is busy building a winning offense around what's here he doesn't need to have any serious defensive worries his plate too and Emery needs his cap dollars to keep some key players and still have some cap room to repair that line this offseason.
So that's my picks and that's my formula. I don't have a favorite. I'll leave that up to Phil and I know he'll come up with the best of the bunch as far as his plans and the Bears needs are concerned. Thus far we just have to trust him.
