Well here we sit without a new HC and this weekend the interviews continue. So what do we actually know so far other than the fact that Phil Emery is on a mission and that's he's detailed and extremely focused and well prepared. That part makes me feel good.
But here's what we need to be looking at for clues. He says that he would like to name a new HC by or before Jan. 19th. One week from today. So how do the playoffs affect those guys who seem to be highest on the list?
Well Trestman is available now which maybe why we're getting the rumors about him that we are. Arians is now too but are their any health concerns with him and will his age go against him? But either of them could be named the Bears HC tomorrow. They have no other obligations but what about some of the others.
McCoy may or may not be immediately available. We'll know later today. The same with Tom Clements but I don't think he's in the top five let alone the top three.
Rick Dennison is a wild card here. Cutler really likes him and so do I. He's a smart guy and very good line coach and God knows we need one. He was OC in Denver while Cutler, Marshall and Bates were here but in Shanny's offense that was more title than responsibility. Much like the Bears defense under Lovie the Broncos ran what Shanny said they'd run and Dennison coordinated but didn't design much else but the blocking schemes to make it work. Bates was the QB coach and play caller during that era as well so there's a lot of connection here that tell me he's the dark horse in this thing. If NE beats Houston tomorrow he becomes immediately available even if McCoy doesn't. I think he's a "could be" top three.
Bevell is in somewhat the same situation and becomes available immediately if Seattle loses to Atlanta in Atlanta which seems at least likely. I'm kind of discounting him as serious contender though since he replaced Bates in Seattle and my guess right now is that the Bears and Cutler would like to keep Bates around to establish some continuity in the transition. I don't know of that happens if Bevell comes in so I don't count him as a serious contender either.
The rest of the names have to be somewhat farther down on the list if in Emery's thinking he wants to bring in a guy to build his offense around Cutler and everything he's said so far has indicated that's what he wants out of a new HC. I think anyone who isn't willing to stick it out with Cutler will get aced from that list and it has to be a guy who can help get Cutler back on track to stardom. Someone pointed out that the biggest gap between the Bears and the Packers right now is the play of their respective QBs and I agree with that assessment. That IS that biggest difference.
So if we sleuth this out the two best candidates as far as that goes are probably Arians and Trestman and it's hard to pick a front runner between them. Arians has more recent NFL experience going for him AND the job he did with Luck and the Colts in Pagano's absence but his age and possible health concerns may be an issue.....maybe. Trestman has youth and a strong previous track record as an NFL OC and he's actually worked with Cutler before in the offseason so he's more likely to stick with him whereas Arians may be looking for another Andrew Luck with less bad habits to break. So it's a real tossup here.
McCoy is next and probably as close or at the top of the list but if the Broncos make a run all the way to the show will Emery be willing to wait? That will put him at least a couple of weeks behind his goal of having his guy by 1/19. One of the best things you can say about McCoy though is that as an OC he's found a way to make an offense work regardless of who his QB is. Given Cutler's tendency to miss a couple of games each year I think we could expect better results from his backup than we've seen these last couple of years. There's also a pretty good likelihood that he'd keep Bates on in some capacity as well. Maybe as his OC.
So those are my top three; McCoy, Trestman, and Arians in that order with Dennison as the dark horse to make the top three if one of the others gets bumped for whatever reason.
These guys are all great offensive coaches which to me says there's a good chance they'll keep the defensive staff, or most of it, intact at least for next season. The defense works as it is and to me keeping Marinelli and signing Urlacher go a long way towards keeping it that way for now and improve the odds that if the offense can get on track then we're right back in the hunt nest year. If this new guy is busy building a winning offense around what's here he doesn't need to have any serious defensive worries his plate too and Emery needs his cap dollars to keep some key players and still have some cap room to repair that line this offseason.
So that's my picks and that's my formula. I don't have a favorite. I'll leave that up to Phil and I know he'll come up with the best of the bunch as far as his plans and the Bears needs are concerned. Thus far we just have to trust him.
Well, with the secound round coming up, I imagine that if we are looking at someone not still in the postseason,he's gonna be here by friday. Isn't the reason for Emery's deadline on a coach so he could attend the east-west game? Dude's wanting to hit the ground running, and I imagine he's already got one or two that will stick with him, unless one of the last candidates blows the rest out of the water. Seeing how he's kind of annoying the league, I wonder what's gonna happen with any potential candidates that make the second round and are still in. What does he do if the team doesn't let him interview again?
Problem with that is that threads move fast with topics like this, so its difficult for us to keep up with the latest news regarding certain candidates. Easier to have different threads where you know the news based on the thread title.
Originally Posted by GermansbombedPH
I was thinking the same thing. I think that is why his original caveat that he would make the east-west game his target unless a candidate was held up by the post-season. After this weekend, there will only be 4 teams left, If he still has not announced final interviews next week, we can probably try and figure out who he may be waiting for.
Originally Posted by Henry Burris
Well one thing that surprises me is that Trestman is 56. For some reason I had him in his late 40s or right about 50. So he doesn't have all that big an edge on Arians anyway. Dennison is right in that ball park too but I knew he was over 50. Those three along with McCoy are the ones I think top the Bears list.
Originally Posted by Shark86x
I'd be shocked if he chose a STC because if that's the direction he wanted to go Toub would or at least should be at the top of that list and if they're letting him troll for other offers then we know he's not. Singletary is the only DC type on the list and I think interviewing him was a courtesy and another tribute to the "Rooney Rule". I don't believe he was a serious candidate.
I don't see as many connections and fits with some of the other OCs as I see with the guys I've listed as my top candidates but as tight lipped as Emery and the Bears are we'll never know until they pop the news. Emery himself was a bit of a surprise and I don't but it past him to surprise us with his choice either. That's where Trestman comes in I think. Going into this search who would have pulled that name out and put it on the list.
I wrote a chapter and a half on this in another thread so I'll just summarize here. The biggest potential detraction as far as McCoy is concerned is whether or not the Broncos keep winning and make it all the way to the SB. I think if they beat Baltimore today that means they play next weekend and McCoy wouldn't be available until after January 19th which was Emery's target date for having his guy.
So if Denver wins and he still hasn't chosen a new HC sometime this week we can be pretty certain that it's McCoy he wants. Or if he simply doesn't want to wait any longer and considers another guy equal in every way then before the week is out we'll hear that they have a press conference scheduled and we'll know who it is out of the other three I think are at the top of his list.
All good stuff Soul. I'd add a couple of minor points. Regarding Arians age, if this recent health issue is a one time thing, I have no problem with him. Some of the best coaches have been this old or older, and I noticed that Clements is only a few months younger than Arians. It doesn't bother me (the age thing).
One thing that is really important in whomever they pick, is that the new guy can build a great coaching staff. I don't see that aspect discussed by the "experts" but to me personally, I want a guy that can bring great sub-coaches to Chicago. Being a great HC is far more than being a sub coach. My point is that just because a guy is a decent QB coach for Cutler, or even has a few years as an OC - that doesn't automatically make him a great HC candidate.
I expect the guy who is finally picked to bring in great guys to do the day-to-day position and coordinator coaching.
Those are he very same 4 I am think about. Maybe not in the same order.
I expect Emery to go into second interview mode next week. Whether his guys will be available or not depends on how they do. Of course, the best guys will probably move forward. So the question is, if his guy is tied up, does he move down the list and go with his second or third based on timing? He is pragmatic, but I also think he wants the best guy. Probably depends on the perceived drop off between candidates.
Say his guy is tied up. Does he wait an additional week in the hopes that he will be one of the two teams to free up the next week, or does he move on, or even announce him as HC but wait for his services? That would mean Emery would have to start hiring assistants (I am sure with the new guys blessing, but without his direct involvement). Interesting choices.
Originally Posted by soulman
Emery doesn't strike me as the kind of guy that would take that decision away from his HC.
Originally Posted by inchibearfan
While interviewing these potential head coaches, doesn't he ask who he would like to bring in? What if the top two candidates, Arians and McCoy, both stated that they would bring Trestman in if they were hired? Its just a theory as I do not believe he will be the head coach.
Originally Posted by bearsinhouston
Maybe none of the good people wanted to go to Cleveland. Who could blame them? Remember what Charles Barkley said about Cleveland? "The Mistake on the Lake."