Thread: Draftametrics; The Bears Best 1st Round, Statistically............

Originally Posted by Grizzblue

Awesome article, if we get Warmack jones or cooper ill be buying rounds of shots, simple as that

And if by some miracle it's Warmack make those doubles...

Geez if it's Warmack I'm in trouble. I'm a short hitter Grizz. A couple doubles of warm milk and I'm out for the night.

Originally Posted by JustAnotherBearsFan99

Garza is going to be 34 in a few weeks. He gets pushed around now like a rag doll. He's done.

I never understood why Lovie moved him to center in the first place and thought it was a BAD idea from the start. At 34 he might have enough left to play LG for a year or two while they develop another player to replace him.
I also agree that getting a good guard / center is the way to approach the draft but it will all depend on what Emery chooses to do in FA.

Originally Posted by omc1969

I never understood why Lovie moved him to center in the first place and thought it was a BAD idea from the start. At 34 he might have enough left to play LG for a year or two while they develop another player to replace him.
I also agree that getting a good guard / center is the way to approach the draft but it will all depend on what Emery chooses to do in FA.

It would be great to see the Bears reach for greatness with the OL. That's why I like the idea of going for a great interior lineman, instead of rolling the dice again, on an iffy LT. Get the LT through FA, and get a solid one that way.

Wouldn't it be a great feeling to watch the Bears OL impose their will on defenses in those 3rd & short situations? And on the goal line situations where it's like 2 feet from the goal line, it would be great to see them move the pile for us to score on the ground. This opens up the passing in the red zone too. And this would also allow Forte to score between the tackles. I get it, that he's not a bulldozer type and never will be - but if the oline could open up things, he could cut in for scores & first downs.

I'd be fine if they drafted interior OL in the 1st AND 2nd rounds. Or at least in the 1st and 4th round. Maybe grab yet another interior guy in FA too (in addition to an LT). Then pick the best of the litter, for our existing OL guys, to add to the mix in 2013.

I hope Emery/Trestman "walks the walk" and isn't just another Angelo/Lovie who "talks the talk" and puts a bunch of crap out there for OL.

I thought this was kind of a no-brainer, that guards and centers in the first round perform better than tackles, seeing as the majority of the ones picked in the earliest rounds seem to fare very well (Grubbs, Mangold, Mack, and the center for Miami come to mind). I think the breakdown of the line from below average to pathetic started with Kruetz' last year here. Hopefully we can get Jones and get that position back to early 2000's levels, without all the maddening bad snaps Kreutz was known for, and no it wasn't Grossman's fault, if EVERY QB has had that happen repeatedly in bad situations(Orton, Griese, the scrubs of '04, even Cutler).

Originally Posted by soulman

I guess it makes sense to post an article that you believe in 100% and in this case I do. The only difference is that the author has put in more scientific terms where I've approached it more intuitively so far.

"Scientifically" is not the same thing as "Statistically."

Statistically, yes selecting a Center in the first round is a smart move based on what the author noted. However, when it comes to the draft, its impossible to be "Scientific" about it, since there are no guarantees one way or the other. You can just as easily draft a bust in round one, and be the first one to draft a bust Center.

In any case, i have full faith in Emery to make the right moves on draft day, whatever they may be, especially now that he is not handcuffed to Lovie and what Lovie wants.

Originally Posted by lklrlolnlilklsox

I've been joking around about Ziggy Ansah, but indeed, Cooper is far and away my #1 target at 20. I honestly take him over Warmack, and that's not just the Tarheels homer in me talking. He may not have the pure power or hand punch of Chance, but all of Coop's other skills are equal to or greater than him. Movement skills, athleticism, feet, hand placement, technique and attitude are all awesome. As for Jones, I said it the second his foot injury came out and I'll repeat it now -- I let him fall and see if we can move up with our second to get him or let someone else take that risk.

If we land Jones in the second, even with a move up, I would crap myself. I also believe that there is that possibility, be it ever so slight, it does exist. Damn, I just hope I could make it to the toilet in time. I'm not as sold on Cooper as some on here, but I'm not saying he would be bad either. I do have eyes, the guy is damn good, I just think others are better and would hold up against the big DT's we have in our Division better. The thought of us getting Warmack/Cooper, then Jones in the second would be a slam dunk home freakin run for the Chicago Bears.

Originally Posted by Jimmors

"Scientifically" is not the same thing as "Statistically."

Statistically, yes selecting a Center in the first round is a smart move based on what the author noted. However, when it comes to the draft, its impossible to be "Scientific" about it, since there are no guarantees one way or the other. You can just as easily draft a bust in round one, and be the first one to draft a bust Center.

In any case, i have full faith in Emery to make the right moves on draft day, whatever they may be, especially now that he is not handcuffed to Lovie and what Lovie wants.

But statistics are part of science and more logical and reasoned approach to decision making and anyway what I was referring to is the difference between researching using statistical data to form and opinion and using raw intuition as I said I've been going by. It was a comparison of how each of us came up with a similar conclusion only he actually has factual data to support his.

I agree that there are no guarantees and granted that no matter who we pick there's a chance failure but statistical probabilities do improve your chances of success. I use them everyday to analyze investments and other stuff to forecast possible outcomes and those work to a certain degree as long as your expectations remain reasonable.

What he did here was very little different and I guess that's what attracted me to the article. It simply a way to slant the odds in your favor but no, it doesn't guarantee a win. I agree. I also agree that it's become "in Phil we trust" time which in my opinion is already proven to be more effective than "in Lovie we trust". So you make a very good point.