Draftametrics; The Bears Best 1st Round, Statistically............

**soulman** · 02-11-2013, 09:37 PM

Originally Posted by lklrlolnlilklsox

I've been joking around about Ziggy Ansah, but indeed, Cooper is far and away my #1 target at 20. I honestly take him over Warmack, and that's not just the Tarheels homer in me talking. He may not have the pure power or hand punch of Chance, but all of Coop's other skills are equal to or greater than him. Movement skills, athleticism, feet, hand placement, technique and attitude are all awesome. As for Jones, I said it the second his foot injury came out and I'll repeat it now -- I let him fall and see if we can move up with our second to get him or let someone else take that risk.

Good point. I keep forgetting about that Lis Franc injury and for us that should be a concern. It sure as hell buggered Mike Browns career in his prime. It may not be as much of an issue for a lineman but it's still a red flag and there are other prospects to look at.

For all of the reasons you listed it seems to me that Cooper would make an ideal line mate with Louis. We'd have two young athletic OGs who can run and pass block well to anchor the middle of that line and I like that combo on paper.

**Jimmors** · 02-11-2013, 09:43 PM

Originally Posted by soulman

But statistics are part of science and more logical and reasoned approach to decision making and anyway what I was referring to is the difference between researching using statistical data to form and opinion and using raw intuition as I said I've been going by. It was a comparison of how each of us came up with a similar conclusion only he actually has factual data to support his.

I agree that there are no guarantees and granted that no matter who we pick there's a chance failure but statistical probabilities do improve your chances of success. I use them everyday to analyze investments and other stuff to forecast possible outcomes and those work to a certain degree as long as your expectations remain reasonable.

What he did here was very little different and I guess that's what attracted me to the article. It simply a way to slant the odds in your favor but no, it doesn't guarantee a win. I agree. I also agree that it's become "in Phil we trust" time which in my opinion is already proven to be more effective than "in Lovie we trust". So you make a very good point.

There's nothing wrong with the article, i am merely pointing out the difference between "statistically" and "scientifically" since you threw in the latter term to describe what the author said. Statistics is the collection and analyzation of data, and yes, it is used in the scientific method. However, nothing this guy did is "scientific" since its impossible to apply the scientific method to something as random as the draft.

Scientific method implies a hypothesis, something that can be proved or disproved. In this case, "Centers taken in the first round become starters." You can use stats to show how this has been true in the past, but there are too many variables to make it a scientific hypothesis, it cant be proven or disproven. We could draft a Center in round 1 that becomes a starter and supports this claim, and we could just as easily draft one that becomes a bust, disproving it (and thereby making previous stats irrelevant)

**soulman** · 02-12-2013, 06:49 AM

Originally Posted by Jimmors

There's nothing wrong with the article, i am merely pointing out the difference between "statistically" and "scientifically" since you threw in the latter term to describe what the author said. Statistics is the collection and analyzation of data, and yes, it is used in the scientific method. However, nothing this guy did is "scientific" since its impossible to apply the scientific method to something as random as the draft.

Scientific method implies a hypothesis, something that can be proved or disproved. In this case, "Centers taken in the first round become starters." You can use stats to show how this has been true in the past, but there are too many variables to make it a scientific hypothesis, it cant be proven or disproven. We could draft a Center in round 1 that becomes a starter and supports this claim, and we could just as easily draft one that becomes a bust, disproving it (and thereby making previous stats irrelevant)

True and "scientific" was a poor choice of words. Kin to and used in scientific analysis but not the same. I can't predict an exact outcome with "stats" either. I can only improve my probability of success. In my defense it was 3 AM when I posted my reply so my brain wasn't out of first gear yet.

That aside his "stats" do make some sense and part of my reasoning for posting the article is that Phil Emery seems to collect and analyze this kind of data and at least in part base some of his decisions on it. He's indicated that before in his pressers. So it was just a way to show there might be a logical reason for leaning more towards a different position than OT in round one.

**JJ-30** · 02-12-2013, 06:49 AM

I agree building the center of the line makes the most sense. If Carimi or Scott can fill the RT job. I guess my one question is what do we do with our two young guns Williams and Brown both could be starters under the right coach.

**soulman** · 02-12-2013, 07:01 AM

Originally Posted by JJ-30

I agree building the center of the line makes the most sense. If Carimi or Scott can fill the RT job. I guess my one question is what do we do with our two young guns Williams and Brown both could be starters under the right coach.

Well a little competition inside could work wonders JJ. EWill was being groomed as an OC to replace Garza and maybe under Kromer he can win that spot now that he's had some game experience at OG. It seems to me that the entire blocking scheme is gonna change so any familiarity Garza had with the old one is now gone and with it his edge in that regard.

EWill is supposed to be pretty athletic and comes with a case of the nasties as far as his attitude is concerned so maybe he's the guy???? James Brown was a LT in college and if we don't find another solution elsewhere and end up with the "Tacomonster" at LT again, God forbid, maybe they'll move Brown to LT and let him compete with Webb. He's more OT size and build than OG size anyway.

It seems to me like Cooper might be the best pick if he's on the board at #20 and I'd say because of Warmack there's a good chance he just might be. I can see one OG going in the top 19 but it's hard to fathom two going that early right now. After the combine and the pro days though who knows.

Well maybe you better than me. You've been there.

**JustAnotherBearsFan99** · 02-12-2013, 09:02 AM

Originally Posted by soulman

Well a little competition inside could work wonders JJ. EWill was being groomed as an OC to replace Garza and maybe under Kromer he can win that spot now that he's had some game experience at OG. It seems to me that the entire blocking scheme is gonna change so any familiarity Garza had with the old one is now gone and with it his edge in that regard.

EWill is supposed to be pretty athletic and comes with a case of the nasties as far as his attitude is concerned so maybe he's the guy???? James Brown was a LT in college and if we don't find another solution elsewhere and end up with the "Tacomonster" at LT again, God forbid, maybe they'll move Brown to LT and let him compete with Webb. He's more OT size and build than OG size anyway.

It seems to me like Cooper might be the best pick if he's on the board at #20 and I'd say because of Warmack there's a good chance he just might be. I can see one OG going in the top 19 but it's hard to fathom two going that early right now. After the combine and the pro days though who knows.

Well maybe you better than me. You've been there.

However this all plays out, my dream is that we end up with not only solid starters, but also with solid #2's, so that we don't have all of the flip-flopping of players to play out of position when we have injuries. If a guard goes down to injury, then we need to have a solid #2 guard to replace him - and the rest of our oline stays pat (no flopping tackles to be guards and vice-versa).

I grew to hate the Lovie/Tice flip flopping and playing guys out of position. I will always believe it was a big part of our problem. Yes, we had talent problems too, but this also was a factor in past years, IMHO.

**soulman** · 02-12-2013, 11:45 PM

Originally Posted by JustAnotherBearsFan99

However this all plays out, my dream is that we end up with not only solid starters, but also with solid #2's, so that we don't have all of the flip-flopping of players to play out of position when we have injuries. If a guard goes down to injury, then we need to have a solid #2 guard to replace him - and the rest of our oline stays pat (no flopping tackles to be guards and vice-versa).

I grew to hate the Lovie/Tice flip flopping and playing guys out of position. I will always believe it was a big part of our problem. Yes, we had talent problems too, but this also was a factor in past years, IMHO.

Because of Lovie and his defensive leanings we always seemed to have better backup on defense than on offense. He and Tice also seemed to share that same idea of the universal player who could play multiple positions and while that may have worked with certain players of defense it's not what you want to do with an OL.

Tice also had this habit of wanting to draft OTs and covert them to OGs and I think with Carimi last year and maybe even Brown I think it was proven that theory doesn't work. I expect things to be much different with Kromer running that line and the run game. I don't think we'll ever see Carimi at OG again and it would surprise me if he moved Brown back to LT and tried to groom him as one. That's what he played in college and he has the build of an OT.

I think it's the same with EWill. If the kid is really an OC then start playing him there in practices and preseason and find out whether he's the heir apparent at OC or not. If he has any talent at all Garza wouldn't be all that hard to beat out of his starting job anymore.

**JustAnotherBearsFan99** · 02-13-2013, 08:42 AM

Originally Posted by soulman

Because of Lovie and his defensive leanings we always seemed to have better backup on defense than on offense. He and Tice also seemed to share that same idea of the universal player who could play multiple positions and while that may have worked with certain players of defense it's not what you want to do with an OL.

Tice also had this habit of wanting to draft OTs and covert them to OGs and I think with Carimi last year and maybe even Brown I think it was proven that theory doesn't work. I expect things to be much different with Kromer running that line and the run game. I don't think we'll ever see Carimi at OG again and it would surprise me if he moved Brown back to LT and tried to groom him as one. That's what he played in college and he has the build of an OT.

I think it's the same with EWill. If the kid is really an OC then start playing him there in practices and preseason and find out whether he's the heir apparent at OC or not. If he has any talent at all Garza wouldn't be all that hard to beat out of his starting job anymore.

I agree.

I work a lot with hand and power tools. I have tools that I use for certain jobs, that are made just for those purposes. When I use the "right" tool for the job, things go well. Those same jobs CAN be tackled with tools that are not optimized for those specific tasks.

Sure, it's "possible" to do a crude approach like this, by grabbing just any old power saw or whatever. But don't expect a great end-result this way. It's like a surgeon could try open-heart surgery with a butcher knife. But the results are not going to be what you want.

Lovie Smith seemed to subscribe to the idea that is was a "good thing" to have players who may not be great at any one position, but who could play multiple positions. He valued versatility over being a top-talent at a single position. Hence, it was fine to play people out of position, at the drop of a hat. It's the old "use the butcher knife for heart surgery" thing. Our oline woes were "exhibit A" for what happens when you try this.

Our OL was a bloody mess.

**weneedmorelinemen** · 02-14-2013, 09:49 AM

Originally Posted by soulman

I guess it makes sense to post an article that you believe in 100% and in this case I do. The only difference is that the author has put in more scientific terms where I've approached it more intuitively so far. But that's not to say that I don't believe it should be looked at this way and I often do. This guy just has access to betters research tools and stats than I do. And I'm betting Phil Emery looks at things more this way as well. He's quoted his research stats in several presser and devours details like this.

I would be thrilled if we were able to draft either Cooper or Jones in the first round. I believe either of them could be a day one starter at LG or OC and I'm far less certain about that regarding any OT we could draft as late as #20. In addition to LT being a much more challenging position to play is that fact that we'd end up with the 3rd or 4th or even 5th best OT prospect instead of one of the top two OGs or OCs.

I believe that if we are able to sign a LT in FA most of our other problems at OT will resolve themselves once Carimi has had a chance to get back in football shape again and Kromer has worked with all of the linemen on technique and blocking schemes. Even Webb may be salvageable as a RT or Swing OT with some help and better coaching from Kromer. He won't get away with the lackadaisical attitude he had when Tice was around. Either he performs or he'll be gone.

If Cooper is still on the board at #20 we've just solved our problem at LG and with the addition of a vet like Bushrod or Beatty we've rebuilt the left side of that line and given Cutler far better protection. Assuming Louis can return to form our needs at RG are taken care of as well and we can continue to work on Brown or another rookie or second year guy as a backup OG. Webb and Carimi can have an "honest" competition for RT and I think a healthy Carimi wins that battle. That leaves Webb as an experienced Swing OT whose started on both sides of the line.

If Cooper falls before we can draft him then I fall back to Jones and fill the OC spot and use round two on a guy like Warford or an equivalent and I move Garza back to LG and let those two compete for a starting spot. As it turns out I think Garza is still a better OG than he has been an OC and he's fairly ageless so he provides the vet depth we need in place of Spencer.

So that's three new components to mix into the current group and either way it comes out we've plugged two major holes with significant upgrades and we look to Kromer to fix the rest. Based on overall statistics in comparison to other teams the Bears line ranked 16th out of 32 teams so I think from that we can assume there's at least something salvageable there that a couple of upgrades and some better cohesion based on better coaching and a better scheme can solve.

So those are my thoughts as it applies to how we should approach FA and the draft. Shout out your own.

Garza was awful as a LG in 2010 after Tice gave up on Asiata during camp. And I consider myself a Garza fan. At RG, he was not getting much push on short yardage situations, and it has been a couple years since he's played there. The best he's played lately (not the 2005/ 2006 vintage at RG) has been as a center.

If we move on from Garza at center, to me that makes sense and I'd not argue that. But my opinion is to leave him at center regardless if we draft a high guard/ center like Jones and use Jones at LG his rookie year because LG is a huge need and Garza can't fill that role as well as he could at center.

I know this bleacher report "article" talks about centers drafted in the first round as being starters, but that stat is misleading. Chris Spencer was a first round center prospect, and he's probably the guy the author refers to as "All but one became a starter their first year, and that player became a starter in his second year." He didn't start at center though.

That first rookie year is rough. Let the guy come in to contribute but not have to make the line calls all at once.

**soulman** · 02-14-2013, 02:08 PM

Originally Posted by weneedmorelinemen

Garza was awful as a LG in 2010 after Tice gave up on Asiata during camp. And I consider myself a Garza fan. At RG, he was not getting much push on short yardage situations, and it has been a couple years since he's played there. The best he's played lately (not the 2005/ 2006 vintage at RG) has been as a center.

If we move on from Garza at center, to me that makes sense and I'd not argue that. But my opinion is to leave him at center regardless if we draft a high guard/ center like Jones and use Jones at LG his rookie year because LG is a huge need and Garza can't fill that role as well as he could at center.

I know this bleacher report "article" talks about centers drafted in the first round as being starters, but that stat is misleading. Chris Spencer was a first round center prospect, and he's probably the guy the author refers to as "All but one became a starter their first year, and that player became a starter in his second year." He didn't start at center though.

That first rookie year is rough. Let the guy come in to contribute but not have to make the line calls all at once.

I'm not opposed to leaving Garza at OC for another year if we can surround him with better talent. Garza played far better in 2011 than in 2012 and I believe at least in part that was due to the type of schemes Tice was trying to run. The entire OL just didn't seem to "get it" and what suffered most was actually their run blocking more than their pass blocking which for a couple of guys actually got better.

I'm also more in favor of drafting a true LG like Cooper at #20 than I am taking Jones and playing him at LG. Both could eventually end up as Pro Bowl level guys at their respective positions but I'd prefer we take a guy who can start in 2013 at his true position. In addition if we look at where the real problems were in 2012 other than at RT due to Carimi's struggles recovering from his injury then LG was the sore spot.

My take on it is that Garza actually can play OC. He's not all that good at it but he's experienced and he's serviceable. What we don't have is a good LG to line up next to him and if there's a guy on the board who can move right in and lock that spot down IMHO that's who we should draft.

Because of the need to take a pass rusher last year we had to pass on DeCastro but luckily there are two more just as good in this years draft. I don't see us getting a shot at Warmack but I think Cooper is very possible. One OG going in the top 19 I can see but two I don't see. Jones would be a good pick but I think Cooper would be an even better one.

Thread: Draftametrics; The Bears Best 1st Round, Statistically............

LinkBack

Thread Tools

Posting Permissions