Thread: Draftametrics; The Bears Best 1st Round, Statistically............

I guess it makes sense to post an article that you believe in 100% and in this case I do. The only difference is that the author has put in more scientific terms where I've approached it more intuitively so far. But that's not to say that I don't believe it should be looked at this way and I often do. This guy just has access to betters research tools and stats than I do. And I'm betting Phil Emery looks at things more this way as well. He's quoted his research stats in several presser and devours details like this.

I would be thrilled if we were able to draft either Cooper or Jones in the first round. I believe either of them could be a day one starter at LG or OC and I'm far less certain about that regarding any OT we could draft as late as #20. In addition to LT being a much more challenging position to play is that fact that we'd end up with the 3rd or 4th or even 5th best OT prospect instead of one of the top two OGs or OCs.

I believe that if we are able to sign a LT in FA most of our other problems at OT will resolve themselves once Carimi has had a chance to get back in football shape again and Kromer has worked with all of the linemen on technique and blocking schemes. Even Webb may be salvageable as a RT or Swing OT with some help and better coaching from Kromer. He won't get away with the lackadaisical attitude he had when Tice was around. Either he performs or he'll be gone.

If Cooper is still on the board at #20 we've just solved our problem at LG and with the addition of a vet like Bushrod or Beatty we've rebuilt the left side of that line and given Cutler far better protection. Assuming Louis can return to form our needs at RG are taken care of as well and we can continue to work on Brown or another rookie or second year guy as a backup OG. Webb and Carimi can have an "honest" competition for RT and I think a healthy Carimi wins that battle. That leaves Webb as an experienced Swing OT whose started on both sides of the line.

If Cooper falls before we can draft him then I fall back to Jones and fill the OC spot and use round two on a guy like Warford or an equivalent and I move Garza back to LG and let those two compete for a starting spot. As it turns out I think Garza is still a better OG than he has been an OC and he's fairly ageless so he provides the vet depth we need in place of Spencer.

So that's three new components to mix into the current group and either way it comes out we've plugged two major holes with significant upgrades and we look to Kromer to fix the rest. Based on overall statistics in comparison to other teams the Bears line ranked 16th out of 32 teams so I think from that we can assume there's at least something salvageable there that a couple of upgrades and some better cohesion based on better coaching and a better scheme can solve.

So those are my thoughts as it applies to how we should approach FA and the draft. Shout out your own.

I'd take Cooper for sure

Barrett Jones has been who made the most sense in my head. Rather have the top C (assuming he is available) than the 6th OT.

Originally Posted by BearStuff

Barrett Jones has been who made the most sense in my head. Rather have the top C (assuming he is available) than the 6th OT.

I'd think that either Jones or Cooper would be the right play in the first and there a good chance they may both be there when we pick. I'm just not all that enamored about the OTs. Maybe two of them are good enough to play LT in 2013 and we won't see either of them on the board at #20. RTs we really don't need as much as we needed interior linemen.

The only way I go OT is Eric Fisher is still there for some reason, and I really DON'T see that happening . You can never tell with OT's regarding draft position, and I know Fisher is going to go a little higher than he probably should given the lack of top OT talent at the top end, but he would be a great and realistic #20. Sometimes guys drop, just as DeCastro did last year, but of course DeCastro was an OG, not an OT, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that Fisher COULD drop to us, and if that happened, I pick him in a hurry.

With all that said, the most realistic option is interior linemen, and the second most important O-Lineman is the Center. I love Garza, but he is aging and we could certainly use some more beef in the Center. I know he has had a foot injury, but I think that's easily overcome. Cooper's best attribute is his quickness, but he's a bit undersized as he isn't even 300 Lbs., and if he does add a few pounds, will that slow him down?

Now, if Chance Warmack is there, well, I think that's kind of a no-brainer in my opinion.

1. Eric Fisher (not bloody likely, but anything is possible)
2. Chance Warmack ( slightly more possible than #1 above, but still unlikely)
3. Barrett Jones

Would it not make more sense to grab arguably the best guard or center knowing they have a higher chance of success than late-round tackles?

I definitely agree with this. Why take another chance at an "iffy" LT, when we can get a stellar interior lineman, who can start day-1 and help us for many years to come?

I think we're going to have to cough up some big money in FA for a decent LT. Webb may (or may not) be a decent swing tackle backup.

The interior of our offensive line was crippling us in recent years. It hurt our ability to run between the tackles. It hurt us in 3rd and short situations - all season long. It killed us on goal line situations where we had 1st-and-a foot or two, and we couldn't punch the ball into the end zone.

And of course it hurt Cutler because the pocket (for years now) has been crushed, forcing Cutler into hurried passes, ints & crap decisions in general.

Hopefully, Lance Louis can come back from his injury. But that's not a "given" right now. At best, it sounds like he'll be an "Urlacher" type situation, where he won't be in football shape at the beginning of the season. And that's best-case scenario. At worst, he may never play again at his previous level.

So, in my mind, I'm thinking we need 2 or 3 interior linemen. Not bums like we've had, but rock solid players. With this in mind, I'd like to see us draft 2 interior linemen. One in the first round. The other, no later than the 4th round (2nd round would be even better IMHO). Maybe even pick up an interior lineman IN ADDITION TO THESE TWO men, in free agency.

Ric I think it's valid as it relates to linemen and that's all that was being considered here. If we take just the OL positions and assign them equal difficulty then it's completely valid. But I'd agree that some positions are more difficult than others and to me those two would be LT and OC. Both require intelligence and above average athletic ability.

But that's beyond the point he's trying to make. If we want to be as certain as possible that we get a first day starter in the first round this year then we should draft an OG....or an OC. He suggests Cooper and I believe he's right. If Cooper is there he'd be number one of number two on my list too. Jones would be the other.

With Cooper and Louis we'd have two young and very athletic OGs both of whom seem to be equally good at both pass and run blocking. Then barring a career ending injury the interior of the line is upgraded and except for an OC set for some years to come. If by virtue of Kromers coaching and some offseason work to rebuild himself back into football shape Carimi snaps back to the guy we knew he could be at RT when we drafted him we've got three young studs on the line.

I think you could make this work about the same way with Jones and you move Garza back to LG and let him and Brown compete or maybe we can pickup an OG like Warford in round two.

I think his point is that in the last two drafts we've gotten very limited snaps out of our 1st round picks in their rookie years. Carimi got hurt and because of that his second year was almost a waste too because he wasn't in shape to play. Through no real fault of his own McClellin only played about 35% of the defensive snaps mainly because of the play of Izzy and Wootton who between them equaled Peps production at RDE.

Some guys think that was a wasted pick because he didn't start. I disagree but that's beside that point as far as what this article is saying. Do we want to go a 3rd year in a row drafting a player who only plays a fraction of the total plays he could? I don't see Emery wanting to go that route and if we take a lower ranked OT over a higher ranked OG or OC that's more than likely what will happen.

If we can find a vet LT in FA we don't ned to spend a top pick on a LT prospect. We can take one later on and let him develop or maybe just maybe Kromer finds the key to getting Webb playing like we've all been told that he can. Bottom line is that we need to lower our risk as far as who we take and what position we draft and his stats are valid in that OGs are more typically first day starters than any other position on the OL. So that logic says we take an OG and start him at LG where we have a need.