Thread: PFF: Over Valued/Under Valued Chicago Bears

going by this, keeping Melton with the Tag is overpayment...

Performance Based Value: $6.2m

it could be the final number... right now, it is. That's what I said all along. He isn't worth the Tag money.

fine, but we still don't know if Melton is this good of if Peppers makes him this good. If it's the later or somewhere in the middle, it would be overpayment. If Melton is that good, he is worth it. I don't see him being that good, that's why I say he is not worth it now.

Originally Posted by GermansbombedPH

it could be the final number... right now, it is. That's what I said all along. He isn't worth the Tag money.

Somebody's self concocted formula has nothing to do with the real world. Melton will get a deal that averages somewhere close to the value of that tag with around $18 mil in guarantees give or take a little. You can't base his worth on this crap. Look at some of the other players with negative numbers.

Urlacher, Peppers and Forte are all Pro Bowlers or All Pros who have proven over there careers to be productive team players. Just because their cap costs don't correspond to their production in a given year doesn't mean they aren't worth the money. They've all had years where they over earned their cap costs. In Forte's case he'd have been on the plus side of the ledger for four years before signing his last deal.

Same with guys like Melton and some of the other younger players still working off their rookie deals. Based on their productivity vs their cost they've been a bargain as well. Every team has guys who are out earning their deals and other who are under earning them. It works out that way for everybody. That's one reason why teams have to regenerate from the draft. Vet get to be too expensive when you have too many highly paid ones and you don't let good young players go only to have to replace them.

The other factor that isn't considered in this equation is intangibles. For instance Izzy's sack totals have increased significantly since the Bears signed Pep. Pep may not get credit for that in this analysis but it's unquestionably helped Izzy and this past year Wootton to be playing opposite a guy like Pep. If you believe that Henry Melton isn't worth $8 mil per year G clearly you don't understand the value of a 3t DT like him in the Bears defense.

He's very, very, good and not all that easily replaceable.

Originally Posted by WindyCity

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...chicago-bears/

Undervalued



1. Israel Idonije, Defensive End
The play of Idonije was a breakthrough for the Bears in 2012. Since moving to defensive end in 2010, Idonije had never been much of a pass-rushing threat. That all changed this year. Idonije was ninth among starting defensive ends in Pass Rushing Productivity, besting teammate Julius Peppers by 0.7. His ability to play outside (65% of snaps) and inside (35% of snaps) was incredibly valuable in the Bears’ 4-3 scheme. Idonije is a free agent this offseason and won’t be underpaid for long. At 32 though the question remains as to whether or not he’ll continue to be worth it.
Cap Hit: $2.5m
Performance Based Value: $8.4m
Value Differential: +$5.9m
2. Tim Jennings, Cornerback
We here at PFF have thought very highly of Jennings ever since he came to Chicago, but in 2012 he took his play to another level. His league-leading nine interceptions were two more than he had totaled in his past six seasons combined. Jennings was graded our ninth-best corner last season, and he combined with Charles Tillman to have the highest rating of any cornerback combo. The amazing part about his value is that he signed this two-year contract just last offseason. Even if Jennings completely underperforms next season with his $5.1m cap hit, the Bears will still come away with positive value over the life of his contract.
Cap Hit: $2.5m
Performance Based Value: $8.1m
Value Differential: +$5.6m
3. Henry Melton, Defensive Tackle
When a fourth rounder turns into a pro bowler on his rookie contract the odds are the team got tremendous value. That is exactly what the Bears have received from Henry Melton the previous two seasons. The former Texas fullback has developed into one of the most dynamic interior threats in football. Melton was fifth among defensive tackles in Pass Rushing Productivity and first in Run Stop Percentage. There is a good chance the Bears use the franchise tag, worth $8.3m, on Melton and it wouldn’t surprise me if he proves himself worth the money next year.
Cap Hit: $698k
Performance Based Value: $6.2m
Value Differential: +$5.5m
4. Lance Briggs, LB – Cap: $4.9m, PBV: $9.2m, Value Differential: +$4.3m
5. Major Wright, S – Cap: $714k, PBV: $3.8m, Value Differential: +$3.0m
6. Charles Tillman, CB – Cap: $8.0m, PBV: $10.3m, Value Differential: +$2.4m
7. Stephen Paea, DT – Cap: $842k, PBV: $2.3m, Value Differential: +$1.5m
8. Nate Collins, DT – Cap: $509k, PBV: $1.9m, Value Differential: +$1.4m
9. Chris Conte, S– Cap: $614k, PBV: $1.9m, Value Differential: +$1.3m
10. J’Marcus Webb, T – Cap: $560k, PBV: $1.8m, Value Differential: +$1.2m

Overvalued



1. Brian Urlacher, Inside Linebacker
Phil Emery and the Bears have a very difficult decision to make this offseason. Brian Urlacher is coming off of one of the worst seasons of his career and will be 35 by the start of the season. The thing is, it is not his coverage skills that have diminished, it is his run defense. Urlacher had the 29th-best tackling efficiency out of 35 starting middle linebackers. He doesn’t shed blocks as well he used to, and he had a fairly serious hamstring injury that kept him out for the last four games of the season. With his play slipping and a new head coach and scheme, you have to wonder if this is the end of the road for Urlacher in Chicago.
Cap Hit: $9.7m
Performance Based Value: $1.3m
Value Differential: -$8.4m
2. Julius Peppers, Defensive End
Julius Peppers is a great example of how big contracts can lead to large negative values very easily. At his best, Peppers is worth every penny (see +38.7 in 2010), but his 2012 season was nowhere near his best. Even though he totaled 13 sacks, he failed to make an impact in the running game and had too many games where he didn’t show any pass rush. Peppers was still the seventh-most valuable player on the team, it’s just that he had the largest cap hit of any Bear. His cap number will grow each of the next three seasons all the way to over $19m in 2015. If Peppers doesn’t return to his elite levels, a restructuring may occur soon.
Cap Hit: $12.2m
Performance Based Value: $4.6m
Value Differential: -$7.5m
3. Matt Forte, Running Back
This isn’t the list Bears fans want to see Matt Forte on the year after he signs a new contract. His Elusive Rating, Breakaway Percentage, and Yards Per Route Run all dropped significantly from 2011, and were near career lows. Injuries hampered him throughout the season though and he played just 713 snaps. If he can return to his previous production it would fit nicely with his $6.8m cap number, and at only 27 you would think he has more than a couple of good years left.
Cap Hit: $6.8m
Performance Based Value: $2.1 m
Value Differential: -$4.7m
4. Chris Spencer, G – Cap: $4.3m, PBV: $825k, Value Differential: -$3.4m
5. Jason Campbell, QB – Cap: $3.8m, PBV: $1.1m, Value Differential: -$2.6m
6. Chris Williams, G – Cap: $2.5m, PBV: $250k, Value Differential: -$2.3m
7. Devin Hester, WR – Cap: $2.7m, PBV: $825k, Value Differential: -$1.9m
8. Nick Roach, LB – Cap: $2.8m, PBV: $1.5m, Value Differential: -$1.3m
9. Kellen Davis, TE – Cap: $2.2m, PBV: $976k, Value Differential: -$1.2m
10. Matt Toeaina*, DT – Cap: $1.5m, PBV: $390k, Value Differential: -$1.1m

Summary – Team Value Differential: -$5.0m
The Bears running at a negative value isn’t all too surprising given the lack of impact players on rookie contracts. The Bears top six players in terms of value are all on at least their second contract. Even though the Bears had just one offensive player make the top 10 value differential, they still managed to finish 10-6. If the Bears can get more young offensive players on that list, their record and their value differential could improve.

You can't argue with those top three as having all been big difference makers on that 2012 defense. All three were challenged to step up their play, Izzy his sacks and pressures, Jennings his picks and Melton his run defense while still continuing to be a major disruptive force inside and continue to provide an inside rush. In a sense they all had Pro Bowl level years.

What I quarrel with is basing an overvaluation on just one season for those top three guys. Urlacher's injuries were certainly a factor but he has enough seasons under his belt where his productivity equaled or bettered his cost that something like this in the last year of a long term deal has to be overlooked. Besides we all know he'll be playing for far less if he returns.

Pep's cost is as high as it is because we restructured his deal once already in order to push cap cost into later years so practically speaking he's been a bargain in previous years as well. The other factor I pointed out in my post to G is that the stats being used here don't consider the intangibles that team leaders and Pro Bowlers provide. How much of Izzy's gain in performance these past three years has been directly related to having Pep playing the other DE spot. Same with Wootton last year.

Forte was a tremendous bargain for his first four years and I doubt that had Tice used him more effectively last year he'd be considered "overvalued". And the author does clarify that somewhat. Injuries, poor blocking and a horrible offensive scheme all contributed to that. Forte has always earned his keep.

Numbers 4-10 I'd agree with except for Nick Roach. He's an effective player in the Bears defensive scheme but because of the way he's used his stats will never be great. But much like Izzy he can play both inside and outside and he's a very smart and heady player who also contributes on STeams. He and Izzy are both worth keeping but the price has to be reasonable. The first three on that list are gone and guys like Hester and Davis will need to prove their worth in order to stick around. Both are skating on very thin ice.

I think an analysis like this can be useful as an indicator of how any team can better manage their cap but as a tool for determining the worth of any individual player it has very limited value. Supply and demand factors and average salaries based on position played aren't really taken into consideration here and I'd admit that it would be hard to factor that in accurately.

For instance if we look at the FA LTs and what they're likely to be paid I think it's safe to say that based on their 2012 performance Long, Albert and Bushrod would all probably show as being overvalued whereas Webb appears to be a bargain. Does that mean we should learn to live with Webb and his issues or should we grab the best bargain we can and just accept the fact that we probably won't be getting our monies worth based on the difference? Conversely a guy like Pep may appear to be overvalued by this formula but is there any question about his true value after watching him play? Even at his age he's still a major impact player who causes teams to game plan for him and makes his teammates better.

Every team will have overvalued and undervalued players according to this formula. The figure that's most important is the team number. That tends to point in the direction you need to go. So in this case it points towards exactly what Phil Emery was hired to do. Use his scouting talents to be a better personnel man than his predecessor because this team needs to get both younger and we need to draft better better players who over perform their rookie contracts. That's how you turn that team number positive.