Thread: Preparing for Free Agent Disappointment

Originally Posted by bearsinhouston

The CAP situation is very complex and fluid. What our own guys make... who we would get in the draft.... who we want in FA and how much that would affect the team... How much our big boys earn vs. how long they might be productive... all are moving targets that must be planned with various scenarios in mind for each option. What they think of Peppers cap, Urlachers usefullness, the current OL, they are keeping close to the vest so speculation is difficult.

What can be said however, is that their cards will be played come the opening of FA. I really don't even play the speculation game because I don't have the facts. Once FA is over it is much easier to see remaining needs and start to see who they might want, but even then you don't know who will be available.

I will say this and I firmly believe this. Right now the Bears are in the apparent position of not being able to participate much in FA. If I had a need but did not want others with more CAP to take the wind out of what I was going to do, I would not free any CAP at all until I made my move. I think this is exactly Emerys strategy. If he made all his CAP moves now, people would know how much he freed up and start to speculate upon needs, who is available, how much was needed to sign them and then possibly make their move first.

Not to say that the aforementioned CAP decisions will result in a decision to get someone in FA, but if the decision had been made to do so, I would not expect Emery to make any CAP moves until the very last minute in order to have the best chance at success. From what I can see, that is the way he operates. I'm just sitting back and being patient. The cards will be played soon.

BiH has it right IMHO. Yes, on the surface it appears our cap situation is tight and outside FA is not in the cards for us at all. But that is a mirage as has been pointed out numerous times in numerous ways here (if Emery chooses of course). Converting Forte's RB into a SB nets $3 million. A few judicious cuts of non-vital personnel nets another $4-5 million. And contract extensions and/or restructurings could add $10 million+ depending on the player(s) involved. I'm not saying that's all going to happen but it's available if desired and this isn't exactly unprecedented. Teams do it all the time and we did it with Peppers just 2 years ago.

The question becomes....is everything "quiet" right now because we truly aren't interested in any significant moves or is it quiet because Emery is a stealthy panther about to pounce upon a juicy target? No way to know until next week. But given how none of us saw the Marshall deal coming (in the very 1st hour of FA no less) last year, it wouldn't surprise me one bit if there is more going on behind the scenes than we know or suspect. Uncle Phil strikes me as a tight-lipped super-sleuth who doesn't even take a morning dump without a plan and 4 contingencies already in place.

ok when JA was here we were all bitching on this board why arent we going for Cutler.......then the trade happened lol all gms dont spill the beans on what they are doing. They are hiding nothing with the cap that other teams dont know

another cool stealth moment was when JA bid against himself for omyale lmfao

so lets hope the stealth move is like the cutler one and not some bs like omyale

personally i think our cap problems are real and can be eleviated if they find the right guy at right price


as far as us being linked to anyone I think it is several things

1. reporters pointing the obvious
2. agents creating a higher cap number from other teams
3. other gms screwing up the market for competing teams so that they have to over pay

NFL is a dirty ass business

Well if we don't make a move at the start of FA it won't be the first time the Bears have disppointed the fans and I am sure it won't be the last. I just hope we don't see the old JA move of waiting until the second round of FA and going out and picking up players no other team want and they trying to tell all of us how they made all this great moves.

Originally Posted by 4DaBERS

Houston and MP are both right. Hell, as long as they have a realistic plan in place with some cap adjustments, they don't even have to do it before FA begins. They can come back and adjust contracts later depending on who they get. It's a bit of a gamble and you can't go crazy with it, but there are guys like Peanut who would be happy to make adjustments if there was more money in it and the team got better. Same goes with the Cutler/Marshall tandem. If Emery goes out and fixes the O-Line (you know Cutler has been begging for this), then he would be more likely to sign an extension, and so would Marshall.

There are enough little moves here and there that could yield more than enough savings to take care of reasonable targets.

Exactly right 4D. The Bears have a real CAP problem - as well as a real need for expensive talent. Why redo salaries and move the pain into later years until you know for sure that you can really get the people you want? Hell, if they make all that cap space now and screw over the next few years and then don't end up with who they want anyway, then all they did was fail this year and mess up the future CAP along with being able to afford expensive future talent.

The strategy they appear to be following is the best. You lay low, apparently not able to play in FA, then you pounce on the guys you want and only then move play cap jigsaw. If you don't get who you want, you stay pat on the CAP and make as much go away this year as you can so you have more to play with in the future.

Of course, this is only what I hope is going on. All is speculation until FA starts up and we see who they go after as well as who they are actually able to get. I think any CAP moves will all be based on that. Don't crap on your future unless you can offset that pain with fixing a present problem.

Originally Posted by bearsinhouston

Exactly right 4D. The Bears have a real CAP problem - as well as a real need for expensive talent. Why redo salaries and move the pain into later years until you know for sure that you can really get the people you want? Hell, if they make all that cap space now and screw over the next few years and then don't end up with who they want anyway, then all they did was fail this year and mess up the future CAP along with being able to afford expensive future talent.

The strategy they appear to be following is the best. You lay low, apparently not able to play in FA, then you pounce on the guys you want and only then move play cap jigsaw. If you don't get who you want, you stay pat on the CAP and make as much go away this year as you can so you have more to play with in the future.

Of course, this is only what I hope is going on. All is speculation until FA starts up and we see who they go after as well as who they are actually able to get. I think any CAP moves will all be based on that. Don't crap on your future unless you can offset that pain with fixing a present problem.

Good points. You must be under the cap at the start of the new league year but can then go temporarily over it as long as you get back under by roster cutdown time. Happens all the time ("cap casualties" in preseason). None of us know what or if anything is going to happen next week at the start of FA.

My best guess, based on nothing more than a crude gut feeling, is that we are are out of the LT market with Albert tagged. We aren't going to trade for him and we aren't going after Long or Bushrod. I don't see us paying big bucks for Levitre either when LG looks like a strength of the draft. So forget about the "priciest" OLs. Rumor is the coaching staff is happy with Webb much more so than Carimi. If so, signing a less expensive but still quality OL guy like Winston makes a lot of sense as a 3rd OT (bye bye Scott). He's a hedge against Carimi failing to bounce back and stabilizes the position rather than relying on re-signing Scott who pretty much sucks anyway. And it allows Emery to focus on the interior OL for the draft which is our bigger need going forward and the draft's strength.

I don't see us going after everyone's flavor-of-the-month-TE right now (Cook). Yeah I know his size/speed combo is impressive but he wants $7 million and Tennessee didn't tag him because they were afraid he'd win the case to be valued as a WR. He also isn't much of an inline blocker. So unless his price falls substantially I don't think Emery would spend that kind of coin. A cheaper alternative like Keller or Fasano wouldn't surprise me and they're both coming off down years so shouldn't break the bank at all.

When you look at the cap cost of...

Winston/Schwartz + Keller/Fasano + few cheap vet depth guys - savings from cutting Davis

...it's pretty affordable. Just a reasonable and economical guess.

There are some good points being made in here but the paranoid side of me keeps saying,

All quiet on the Bears front.