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Thread: Free agent Louis making visit

  1. #11
    Junior Member dabears's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by soulman View Post
    Lots of good stuff here bother.

    1) The Melton scenario fits like a glove and I think what you're forecasting for his deal is in the ballpark. He'll want an average of $10 mil but under the circumstances just like Forte, he wont get top dollar and he needs to recognize that or play for the tag money and take the risk he doesn't get hurt like Harris did. A DT who plays like he does is vulnerable to knee injuries from cut blocks so it's some thing he needs to consider if the Bears are willing to put $20 mil up to protect him from that.

    We have to plan for the draft class but those dollars don't hit the cap until we sign them and traditionally that doesn't happen until late May or early June so there's still time to work out the Melton deal before then and I think just as they did with Forte they'll pursue it aggressively. Tags are cap killers.

    2) They're most definitely in a win now mode which is why redoing some deals to keep the defense intact and guys like Izzy and Urlacher around for at least one more year makes sense. If they redo contracts for Jennings and Tillman they should have what they need for those two and it's just a matter of repositioning current cap dollars. Emery wants every dollar spent to be accountable and I'm convinced there's no way to replace those two for any less than we'll have to pay them. Not with rookies or with UFA vets.

    I don't think we'll need to trade up for an OG if that's what we want nor do I think we'll need to trade up for Ogletree if he's the guy who Emery sees as being an heir apparent to Urlacher and a replacement for Roach now. Warmack will probably go in the mid teens but right now Cooper and Ogletree are both ranked after #20. Cooper is a little more finesse than physically dominating like Warmack and Ogletree has those character issues to battle back against. Cooper could conceivably be either a LG or an OC prospect and if we take a guy like Ogletree I think we can be sure Emery and his scouts have done their homework on the guy just like he did with Marshall and Bennett and he's not all that concerned. Guys need to grow up fast if they want to play here.

    3) I can't keep up with and chart the cap space on a spread sheet any longer like DB54 did. I just don't have the time to do it any more but I can answer your question.

    Teams are permitted to designate what ever amount of unused cap space from the previous year they would like to rollover to the following year and that's done in December. The Bears had a $3.2 mil excess and rolled all of it over. It's been accounted for in the current number posted at the beginning of the FA signing period which IIRC was $7.02 mil.

    Based on what they had, what they spent of it so far, and what they gained by releasing three players they should still have an amount that's in the $6-$7 mil range left to work with. So they aren't broke but that's not enough to do what's left to be done
    .
    Soul, good stuff but I still remember DB54 insisting there was an xtra allocation of CAP space that could be used in either 2012 or 13. I pulled the CBA PDF down but really can't see anything on this and the contract language is pretty ambiguous. Sorry I'm harping on this but DB was a pretty good and consistent poster so that is why this xtra CAP space would really help this year. But maybe it just doesn't exist.
    Last edited by dabears; 03-14-2013 at 03:23 PM.

  • #12
    Mello Jello soulman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dabears View Post
    Soul, good stuff but I still remember DB54 insisting there was an xtra allocation of CAP space that could be used in either 2012 or 13. I pulled the CBA PDF down but really can't see anything on this and the contract language is pretty ambiguous. Sorry I'm harping on this but DB was a pretty good and consistent poster so that is why this xtra CAP space would really help this year. But maybe it just doesn't exist.
    The only extra allocations or additions I'm aware of dabears is that rollover of unused cap space from the previous year and any amounts of LTBE (Likely To Be Earned) bonus dollars that were charged against the previous years cap but were not earned and therefore never paid. Those amounts can be recaptured as well.

    In both instances I believe those were added back in to the cap available for 2013. In actuality each team has a slightly different max cap number based on those additions. It's $123 mil plus whatever those allocations add to it for a specific team. That's my understanding of how the accounting is done. I think it's also why it's tough to be 100% accurate since some of that money isn't disclosed very well.

    I don't believe Emery is playing games when he says we're pretty much hard up against the cap. He's pretty straight shooter when he addresses the media but we also don't know exactly how HE defines that. Right now I would bet that there's still a few mil more than he can spend as evidenced by his resigning of Collins probably for the vet minimum for a 4th year player which is $715k vs the $1.3 mil low tender he would have had to use to keep him a RFA.

    The point is we'll never know exactly where they stand as far as cap space goes. No matter how accurate DB54 was recently or I have ever been back when I charted it some years ago all you can ever do is get close. Within a mil or two. After that it's just raw guess work but my guess is we're still somewhere around $5-$6 mil under give or take a little.
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  • #13
    Junior Member dabears's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by soulman View Post
    The only extra allocations or additions I'm aware of dabears is that rollover of unused cap space from the previous year and any amounts of LTBE (Likely To Be Earned) bonus dollars that were charged against the previous years cap but were not earned and therefore never paid. Those amounts can be recaptured as well.

    In both instances I believe those were added back in to the cap available for 2013. In actuality each team has a slightly different max cap number based on those additions. It's $123 mil plus whatever those allocations add to it for a specific team. That's my understanding of how the accounting is done. I think it's also why it's tough to be 100% accurate since some of that money isn't disclosed very well.

    I don't believe Emery is playing games when he says we're pretty much hard up against the cap. He's pretty straight shooter when he addresses the media but we also don't know exactly how HE defines that. Right now I would bet that there's still a few mil more than he can spend as evidenced by his resigning of Collins probably for the vet minimum for a 4th year player which is $715k vs the $1.3 mil low tender he would have had to use to keep him a RFA.

    The point is we'll never know exactly where they stand as far as cap space goes. No matter how accurate DB54 was recently or I have ever been back when I charted it some years ago all you can ever do is get close. Within a mil or two. After that it's just raw guess work but my guess is we're still somewhere around $5-$6 mil under give or take a little.
    That is fair enough brother. But we agree Melton's long term should free up additional CAP. Plus if they extend Peanut and Jennings there can be xtra CAP there too but I just saw the mock we can have and if we can trade down with SF and get that xtra 2nd and 3rd will allow us to get a decent ILB and one of the 2nd tier OG's to play next to Bushrod.
    As I stated in a prior post it is not only going to make our passing game that much better but with skilled players on the OLine we can pound through to the 2nd level of an opposing D and let Forte and Bush gain some serious yardage and eat up clock. I don't know what the ratio of pass/run plays will be but it looks like we can now spread the field with additionals weapons after keeping the D honest with good running. That's my hope anyway.

  • #14
    Senior Member bearsinhouston's Avatar
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    He was in Miami today. As far as I can tell no offer was made.

  • #15
    Mello Jello soulman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bearsinhouston View Post
    He was in Miami today. As far as I can tell no offer was made.
    He's still recovering and rehabbing the knee and even when camp begins in Jluy I doubt he's 100%. I think he deserves more than a raw minimum but it doesn't make sense for either Bears or him to do a long term deal now and I doubt anyone else would do it either.

    The kid is a 7th round pick playing above his station and his games is still nowhere near complete. If Webb wins the RT battle he may have competition from Carimi since they seem poised to move him inside if that happens.
    I'm getting to that age where a lifetime warranty just doesn't mean as much to me anymore as an afternoon nap.



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  • #16
    Mello Jello soulman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dabears View Post
    That is fair enough brother. But we agree Melton's long term should free up additional CAP. Plus if they extend Peanut and Jennings there can be xtra CAP there too but I just saw the mock we can have and if we can trade down with SF and get that xtra 2nd and 3rd will allow us to get a decent ILB and one of the 2nd tier OG's to play next to Bushrod.
    As I stated in a prior post it is not only going to make our passing game that much better but with skilled players on the OLine we can pound through to the 2nd level of an opposing D and let Forte and Bush gain some serious yardage and eat up clock. I don't know what the ratio of pass/run plays will be but it looks like we can now spread the field with additionals weapons after keeping the D honest with good running. That's my hope anyway.

    That's the best guess I can make right now brother but yeah if we can lock Melton up on a deal that cuts his 2013 cap hit by half or more and extend Jennings and Tillman that should add around $10 mil and get Emery what he needs to bring back our guys.

    Tillman and Jennings alone could save $5-$6 mil and those are offers he can make now and possibly use that to lock up Urlacher and Izzy for this year. The more progress he can make with these three the less he needs to worry about Peps huge hit and doing something now that he may wish he hadn't later.

    The main reason I'm opposed to trading down is that the farther you get away from the top 20 the more the talent falls off and you get marginal starters year one as opposed to impact players. JA did way too much of that and it never paid off. I'm not saying that if we have a couple of guys we could be happy with depending on how it breaks and we can trade back some and still get that guy and pick up a 3rd then do it.

    What I'm opposed to is trading two top 50 picks to SF in return for more 75-200 ranked players. You only figure to come out of a draft with two good starters and guys ranked in the top 50 will be better players out of the gate than 3rd rounders who take time to develop. We need two good starters now.
    I'm getting to that age where a lifetime warranty just doesn't mean as much to me anymore as an afternoon nap.



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  • #17
    Member JPosh2012's Avatar
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    It wouldn't shock me if Louis comes back on an incentive filled 1-year deal.

  • #18
    Senior Member jackiejokeman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JPosh2012 View Post
    It wouldn't shock me if Louis comes back on an incentive filled 1-year deal.
    And it could look like this :

    Bushrod-Louis-Jones/Fredrickson-Carimi-Webb

    It could if we wanted it to be.

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