Analysis- Passing on marshall lynch a mistake by terrible teddy
Analysis: Hard to agree with Green Bay Packers GM Ted Thompson's decision to not trade for Marshawn Lynch
Ted Thompsonís death-grip on draft picks has served him well in building the Green Bay Packers into a title contender.
But itís hard to agree with the general manager on running back Marshawn Lynch.
The Seattle Seahawks traded for Lynch on Tuesday, and according to a report on the NFL Network it cost them a fourth-round pick in the 2011 draft and a conditional pick in 2012, a sixth-rounder that can escalate to a fifth-rounder based on Lynchís performance.
An NFL source who knew of the trade talks said Thompson was in on the bidding for Lynch. The source didnít know what Thompson offered, but itís safe to say it wasnít as much as Seattle, because there were no factors to think 0-4 Buffalo did anything but take the best offer.
That means Thompson didnít offer a third-round pick. He should have.
First, to fill in a couple essential details, Lynch is 24, and his contract runs through 2011.
For argumentís sake, letís assume Seattle, which is 2-2, finishes in the middle of the pack and has the No. 16 pick in each round in 2011. According to the standard NFL trade-value chart, that fourth-round pick is worth 70 points. A pick in the middle of the fifth round in 2012 is worth 34. Thatís 104 total.
Letís then assume the Packers will be picking at the end of the third round. That would range anywhere from 145 points (No. 26 of the round) to 116 points (the last pick of the round). If youíre Buffalo, even taking the worst case, you take the third-rounder over Seattleís fourth and fifth.
Now, for all the abuse Thompson takes for his aversion to free agency and trading draft picks, look at the results. Heís used his draft ammunition to acquire four of the Packersí five most important players: Aaron Rodgers (first round), Greg Jennings (second round), Jermichael Finley (third round) and Clay Matthews (by trading a second-rounder and two third-rounders to move into the first round). Picks are valuable.
But Thompson also has a team now that could win a title, and with the Packersí run game in the tank since Ryan Grantís season-ending injury, adding Lynch would have improved the Packersí chances. Yes, the price is a little high, but not prohibitively so, especially because a compensatory pick in next yearís draft would have mitigated the loss. The Packers didnít sign a free-agent of note and lost Aaron Kampman to Jacksonville, and though the NFLís top-secret formula makes for guesswork in predicting compensatory picks, Kampmanís contract ($11 million guaranteed) and likely production could yield the maximum pick, a third-rounder, or fourth-rounder at worst.
Why is Lynch worth it? Because heís far better than anyone the Packers have, and probably is better than Grant.
The Bills obviously were showcasing Lynch when they came to Lambeau Field 2Ĺ weeks ago, and though he put up modest numbers (64 yards on 17 carries, 3.8-yard average) Lynch ran hard and well behind an out-manned offensive line and quarterback who canít throw downfield. In his first two years in the NFL, Lynch rushed for 2,151 yards and a 4.1-yard average for mediocre teams that went 14-18.
Also, heís still plenty young.
The bigger worry is character. Lynch already has been suspended, for three games in 2009, for violating the NFLís personal conduct policy. He pled guilty to a traffic violation in 2008 for driving off after hitting a pedestrian in Buffalo, then in í09 pled guilty to misdemeanor gun possession. Heís one arrest away from a yearís suspension, which is no small consideration.
But a third-rounder still wasnít too stiff a price for a player the Packers, after all their background research, were willing to draft at No. 16 overall in 2007. Buffalo took him at No. 12.
So where do the Packers go from here?
They need to do something, because the first four games have provided no reason to think the John Kuhn-Brandon Jackson duo will be good enough for a deep playoff run, Kuhnís clock-killing carries in the last 6Ĺ minutes against Detroit notwithstanding. Kuhn runs hard and strong, but heís still limited. Jackson has shown he doesnít have it, whatever ďitĒ is.
The NFL trade deadline is Oct. 19, so Thompson still has time for a deal. One of the teams deepest at halfback is Dallas, where Felix Jones is untouchable but Marion Barber or more likely Tashard Choice might be had.
But thereís reason to question whether the Cowboys even would deal with the Packers, at least without a trade lopsided in their favor. The Cowboys still see themselves as having as good a chance as anyone of going to the Super Bowl, which they happen to be hosting, and they might be disinclined to help one of their main competitors for the NFC crown.
The Packers also need to see what they have in recently signed Dimitri Nance and rookie James Starks, who in two weeks is eligible to come off the physically-unable-to-perform list.
The Packers signed Nance off Atlantaís practice squad two weeks ago. Theyíve given him all of two carries, which is fair enough, considering heís learning a new offense. They didnít want to get Rodgers killed because the new guy missed a blitz pickup.
But itís time to find out whether he can help, just as when Grant took over by default early in Week 7 of 2007. Chances are Nance will be more Samkon Gado than Ryan Grant, but thereís no knowing until he gets on the field.
Thereís also Starks, who has been dogged by a hamstring injury since May. Thompson liked him enough to use one of his coveted draft picks on him, a sixth-rounder, but Starks also is a total wild card. He hasnít played football since 2008 Ė he missed the í09 season at the University of Buffalo with a shoulder injury and hasnít practiced in pads in the NFL after aggravating his hamstring in pre-training camp testing.
Starks has had time to study and been to all the meetings, so he should know the playbook. But he hasnít transferred any work to the field. So will he be any good? Who knows? Maybe heís another Mark Tauscher, a late-round pick who played well as a rookie. But considering the layoff, he just as easily could be Craig Bragg, a 2005 sixth-round pick who never played a down.
Why Marshan has sucked for the last few years....why trade for a shitty rb when you already have one as your starter now? I thought the idea was to upgrade you're shitty positions via trade, not stock pile shitty players.
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Exactly. Plus the fact that he's one slip up from a suspension as it is. Yeah let's sign another Jolly.
as he is STILL alot better than what packers have, which is more an indictment of the pckers rb's than praise for lynch.. hey i'm glad they aren't upgrading.. : )
Originally Posted by Riczaj01
Though many packer fans disagre with your idea ricjca heck even wodsen disagrees
Packers cornerback Charles Woodson was asked today on the Jim Rome radio show what the thought about the Packers not trading for former Buffalo Bills running back Marshawn Lynch:
"I thought with the way things shaked out with our team it would be a logical thing for us to do to get another big-time back like Marshawn Lynch. And it didn't pan out," Woodson said. "For players, there's nothing you can do but go out there and play football with the guys you've got."
don't think Ted will aquire anyone to help this team. He undervalues good players and overvalues his future picks
WAIT A MINUTE!......."we went from a team with a losing record.." Are referring to the 4-12 season? I've got a news flash for you....TT was the GM that year, THINK REAL HARD....He gutted the Offensive Line, didn't address the need of OL and WR and drafted another QB instead! Mr TT is may look smart to you, but to me... he's an Jacka$$!
I really can't figure out ted thompson's approach. This Packers team is on the brink of greatness, yet it has weakness. Ryan grant is injured and they need a reliable running back. Nothing! Minnesota needed a receiver and they traded for Moss. Good move! Packers thin on safeties and corners due to injuries. Nothing so far, and particularly with a safety like Michael Lewis available. I'm beginning to wonder if Thompson is far to inflexible, which is not a good trait for a GM. sometimes you need to break your mold with a bold move.
Packers tried to get him but failed.............the key word here tried
we missed out on two great wrs in Holmes and Moss cause we have Hester the undisputed number one wr.
and Lynch doesnt suck he fell out of favor in Buff cause of offield issues. Evernight you are nuts if you think he isnt an upgrade over Kuhn and Jackson. Just the fact they tried to get him the org thought he was good enough.
Originally Posted by Riczaj01
Stocking special teams players is Chicago's motto.
Originally Posted by motownbear
I think greenbay found out that I picked up Lynch in FF and that is the main reason they didn't want him. RBs on my FF teams die slowly.
they missed out on Lynch but in the twitters they got them looking into acquiring Deangelo Williams or Mcgahee
see real teams correct problems. Pack have a serious issue at RB and they are trying. We have deficiencies at WR and OL and we go after a DE who was cut from a UFL team