Thread: Analysis- Passing on marshall lynch a mistake by terrible teddy

Analysis: Hard to agree with Green Bay Packers GM Ted Thompson's decision to not trade for Marshawn Lynch

Ted Thompson’s death-grip on draft picks has served him well in building the Green Bay Packers into a title contender.

But it’s hard to agree with the general manager on running back Marshawn Lynch.

The Seattle Seahawks traded for Lynch on Tuesday, and according to a report on the NFL Network it cost them a fourth-round pick in the 2011 draft and a conditional pick in 2012, a sixth-rounder that can escalate to a fifth-rounder based on Lynch’s performance.

An NFL source who knew of the trade talks said Thompson was in on the bidding for Lynch. The source didn’t know what Thompson offered, but it’s safe to say it wasn’t as much as Seattle, because there were no factors to think 0-4 Buffalo did anything but take the best offer.

That means Thompson didn’t offer a third-round pick. He should have.

First, to fill in a couple essential details, Lynch is 24, and his contract runs through 2011.

For argument’s sake, let’s assume Seattle, which is 2-2, finishes in the middle of the pack and has the No. 16 pick in each round in 2011. According to the standard NFL trade-value chart, that fourth-round pick is worth 70 points. A pick in the middle of the fifth round in 2012 is worth 34. That’s 104 total.

Let’s then assume the Packers will be picking at the end of the third round. That would range anywhere from 145 points (No. 26 of the round) to 116 points (the last pick of the round). If you’re Buffalo, even taking the worst case, you take the third-rounder over Seattle’s fourth and fifth.

Now, for all the abuse Thompson takes for his aversion to free agency and trading draft picks, look at the results. He’s used his draft ammunition to acquire four of the Packers’ five most important players: Aaron Rodgers (first round), Greg Jennings (second round), Jermichael Finley (third round) and Clay Matthews (by trading a second-rounder and two third-rounders to move into the first round). Picks are valuable.

But Thompson also has a team now that could win a title, and with the Packers’ run game in the tank since Ryan Grant’s season-ending injury, adding Lynch would have improved the Packers’ chances. Yes, the price is a little high, but not prohibitively so, especially because a compensatory pick in next year’s draft would have mitigated the loss. The Packers didn’t sign a free-agent of note and lost Aaron Kampman to Jacksonville, and though the NFL’s top-secret formula makes for guesswork in predicting compensatory picks, Kampman’s contract ($11 million guaranteed) and likely production could yield the maximum pick, a third-rounder, or fourth-rounder at worst.

Why is Lynch worth it? Because he’s far better than anyone the Packers have, and probably is better than Grant.

The Bills obviously were showcasing Lynch when they came to Lambeau Field 2½ weeks ago, and though he put up modest numbers (64 yards on 17 carries, 3.8-yard average) Lynch ran hard and well behind an out-manned offensive line and quarterback who can’t throw downfield. In his first two years in the NFL, Lynch rushed for 2,151 yards and a 4.1-yard average for mediocre teams that went 14-18.

Also, he’s still plenty young.

The bigger worry is character. Lynch already has been suspended, for three games in 2009, for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy. He pled guilty to a traffic violation in 2008 for driving off after hitting a pedestrian in Buffalo, then in ’09 pled guilty to misdemeanor gun possession. He’s one arrest away from a year’s suspension, which is no small consideration.

But a third-rounder still wasn’t too stiff a price for a player the Packers, after all their background research, were willing to draft at No. 16 overall in 2007. Buffalo took him at No. 12.

So where do the Packers go from here?

They need to do something, because the first four games have provided no reason to think the John Kuhn-Brandon Jackson duo will be good enough for a deep playoff run, Kuhn’s clock-killing carries in the last 6½ minutes against Detroit notwithstanding. Kuhn runs hard and strong, but he’s still limited. Jackson has shown he doesn’t have it, whatever “it” is.

The NFL trade deadline is Oct. 19, so Thompson still has time for a deal. One of the teams deepest at halfback is Dallas, where Felix Jones is untouchable but Marion Barber or more likely Tashard Choice might be had.

But there’s reason to question whether the Cowboys even would deal with the Packers, at least without a trade lopsided in their favor. The Cowboys still see themselves as having as good a chance as anyone of going to the Super Bowl, which they happen to be hosting, and they might be disinclined to help one of their main competitors for the NFC crown.

The Packers also need to see what they have in recently signed Dimitri Nance and rookie James Starks, who in two weeks is eligible to come off the physically-unable-to-perform list.

The Packers signed Nance off Atlanta’s practice squad two weeks ago. They’ve given him all of two carries, which is fair enough, considering he’s learning a new offense. They didn’t want to get Rodgers killed because the new guy missed a blitz pickup.

But it’s time to find out whether he can help, just as when Grant took over by default early in Week 7 of 2007. Chances are Nance will be more Samkon Gado than Ryan Grant, but there’s no knowing until he gets on the field.

There’s also Starks, who has been dogged by a hamstring injury since May. Thompson liked him enough to use one of his coveted draft picks on him, a sixth-rounder, but Starks also is a total wild card. He hasn’t played football since 2008 – he missed the ’09 season at the University of Buffalo with a shoulder injury and hasn’t practiced in pads in the NFL after aggravating his hamstring in pre-training camp testing.

Starks has had time to study and been to all the meetings, so he should know the playbook. But he hasn’t transferred any work to the field. So will he be any good? Who knows? Maybe he’s another Mark Tauscher, a late-round pick who played well as a rookie. But considering the layoff, he just as easily could be Craig Bragg, a 2005 sixth-round pick who never played a down.