goods stuff from king today soul..
My take on labor.
The other day, United States District Court Judge Susan Nelson, overseeing this new case from Minneapolis, told the players and owners, "It seems to me that both sides are at risk. And this is a very good time for you to come back to the table.'' In fact, according to Adam Schefter on Sunday, she ordered them to talk ... but we just don't know yet if it'll be overseen by the federal court in Minneapolis or a mediator in Washington. The players want the former, the owners the latter.
I just want to remind you (and I hope someone from each side reads this) just how close the two sides were when talks broke off a month ago this afternoon. The players said they'd never support an 18-game regular season, and the owners said in the next five years, there'd never be an 18-game season without player approval. Despite lots of rhetoric since, it'd be easy for the players to put it in stone that the 18-game slate is off the table for the term of this deal.
The other non-money things on the table that day -- an additional five weeks off during the offseason for players, third-party arbitration for drug and steroid appeals, a legitimate salary floor of 90 percent of the cap over three years, a cloudy but encouraging lifetime health-care proposal for all vested veterans going forward -- were either all the way or close to what each side could live with.
Now for the money. The league's last offer was a four-year cap proposal of $141 million to $161 million per team, with no chance for players to make more if the league exceeds current revenue projections. The players were asking for $151 million to $161 million over the four years, with a percentage of all extra revenue over the league's revenue projections. In year one, that's a negotiating gap of $320 million plus a percentage of excess profits; in year four, that's a gap of zero, plus a percentage of excess profits. Now, the league would likely see a major increase in year four, that being the first year of the next TV contract with the networks, cable outlets and satellite. In my opinion, that's a hard negotiation. But it's a negotiation certainly worth having.
I'll leave you with a tale of two jurists, two decades apart.
Before there was a system of real free agency in place in the NFL, United States District Court Judge David Doty, overseeing the case from Minneapolis, told the players and owners if they didn't reach an agreement on the issues, he would impose one that neither side would like and one side would find highly onerous. That led to both sides agreeing to players being free after four seasons if their contracts had expired, with one franchise-player exception per team, and a hard salary cap.
Now Judge Nelson is saying both sides are at risk and telling them to get back to the table.
There are differences between now and 1993, though. The players liked what they heard from Nelson last Wednesday and seem to feel good about taking the chance she'll force the owners to end the lockout. The players are not motivated to give an inch in CBA talks. And the owners, as I reported a couple of weeks ago, have a line-in-the-sand point they won't budge on. That's their desire to not have a federal judge be the referee in any future labor disputes that come with officiating the next CBA, the way Doty did with the last CBA over 18 years. So they don't want to let the federal courts officiate a settlement in this case, for fear that the same system would remain in place, a system they felt was tilted toward the players.
My guess is there won't be any real discussions toward a settlement until Nelson rules, and until the loser in that ruling appeals it to the Eighth Circuit Court of Appeals, and that three-judge appeals panel rules. There is risk for both sides in that happening, but I don't see either side being motivated to throw out an olive branch now.
By the way, I'm glad to see the two sides practicing what Judge Nelson has ordered -- public silence, in effect. Nothing good came of the tit-for-tat Twitter and Internet games the players and league were playing during mediation in Washington, and since then.