Thread: There will be football this fall ! the two

Originally Posted by dabears54

really good stuff from steinberg- put him on the negotating Committee STAT!.. he really breaks it down and gives some of his own experience, well worth the read

There will be football this fall

The two quarreling sides will reach an agreement because there’s way too much to lose.

Leigh Steinberg

There was a time, pre-NFL lockout, when friends, acquaintances and fans would greet me with a hearty, "How are you doing?” But that seems a distant past.

Over the last three months as I’ve gone through the toll road, dined in restaurants, and encountered friends or a fans, the first thing out of their mouths is, "Will there be a football season? When will this end?"

Let me do a public service and reduce the generalized anxiety and trauma that occurs when the nation's number one sports obsession (NFL football leads the next sport in fan poll popularity by a two to one margin) has entered the Twilight Zone of off-the-field discord: THERE WILL BE A NORMAL NFL SEASON!

On Friday, the NFL and the NFLPA will square off in St. Louis before the pro-business Federal Circuit Court of Appeals to argue the legality of continuing the lockout. The real solution of this labor situation will come through the parties bargaining face-to-face.
The CBA will settle before any real damage is done to the sport. The rapture will bring the world to an end before this trillion-dollar industry self destructs.

The NFL owners and players have built the League into a dominating position by understanding that labor peace is critical, as evidenced by the fact that the NFL has had no interruption in play since the 1987 season. Unlike MLB, the NBA and the NHL—which have engaged in internecine strife and strikes, which pushed away fans and damaged their popularity—the League leadership and NFLPA have kept the focus on the field.
Fans know that the games will be played. This critical fact has enabled all of the energy of the League, teams and NFLPA to focus on building the NFL brand. Ingenious brains have developed numerous ancillary revenue streams. The smart minds around football understand that the real battle is not labor vs. management, it’s the battle with baseball, basketball, HBO, Disney World and every other competing form of discretionary entertainment spending.

The development of naming rights, merchandising & memorabilia, the NFL Network, overseas play, DIRECTV, super stadia with luxury boxes and sponsorship opportunities, fantasy football leagues and team owned television content have contributed to a cornucopia of branding and revenue. In 1976, Seattle and Tampa Bay came into the League priced at $16.5 million. In 1995, Carolina and Jacksonville cost $130 million. Today the average NFL franchise is worth over a billion dollars.

National television revenue per team in 1976 was around $2 million. Today it’s in the range of $130 million. Player salaries have risen exponentially. Who wants to be the short sighted party to kill this Golden Goose?

Football has a tradition of not completing business until the last minute. In 1978, I represented Stanford offensive tackle Gordon King, who the New York Giants selected tenth overall. I called General Manager George Young, and said, "George, it is the day after the draft. Why don't we get moving on Gordon's contract and be the first team signing? Think of all the advantages."

He replied, "Call me in July" and hung up.

The motivation to settle these discussions on March 4th or March 11th was not compelling. Training camps were still five months away. When real danger to a season is imminent, the parties will get to their bottom line positions. NFL players are not to be confused with the minions of the Bolshevik Revolution: they are not natural strikers. They have short playing lives, are often the children of coaches or have religious beliefs against defying authority. All of their salaries are paid over the 17 week season, so the impact of a missed game check is amplified.

In 1987, major stars like Joe Montana, Howie Long and Lawrence Taylor crossed the picket lines before there was an agreement. But the NFLPA and players have been devastatingly effective in major courtroom victories. Decertification set the stage by balancing the leverage. DeMaurice Smith is a great leader and has positioned the players perfectly. Roger Goodell and the owners are some of the most brilliant business minds and in our history. Both sides have been relatively restrained in public comment, considering the number of strong willed parties engaged in a major labor dispute.

They know that in an ailing economy with a median family income of $50,000, the public won't sympathize when this process pits millionaires against billionaires.

When the courtroom battles have played out and the opposing sides have peered into the apocalypse of missed games and game checks, it will settle.

In reality, many of the issues are already settled. The 18-game season won't work due to the increase in injuries that would occur. The cap dictates that backups consist of rookies and aging vets with much less talent than the starters. No one wants to see the critical games of a long and brutal season rest on the shoulders of backups.
Some form of a harder rookie salary cap is inevitable (a cap already exists for rookies, but clever agents found ways to blunt its impact). Veteran players and owners will be negotiating—neither of whom have sympathy for unproven, untested rookies taking huge guaranteed dollars out of the compensation system.

The rookie compensation system—absent a competing league—has never been especially rational. I had no choice but to maximize compensation for my 50 first-rounders and eight first overall picks in the draft. But proven, productive starters obviously should have first call on compensation. And this discussion can't end without improving the lot of the aging retirees who built the game.

So enjoy the baseball season, NBA and NHL playoffs and the wide variety of sports options that are currently at your finger tips because the brilliant and creative minds that have built America's favorite entertainment will bring you an NFL season.
On time.

This sounds like a bunch of political mumbo jumbo to me. He is making a lot of assumptions that have yet to come to fruition.

Originally Posted by dabears54

Like what? he's the most respected agent in business( model fo jerry mcguire movie) and knows his stuff, what assumptions?he knows the owner's from negotiations and sure knows the players as was the agent for aikmen , moon , and stve young, and currently is big ben's agent among others and is also a lawyer so knows that side of the business also

One thing I have learned in my short lifespan, DB, is to never believe everything you read, because then you leave yourself open to disappointment and despair.

What I'm getting at, DB, is that he is making a lot of assumptions based on the past. This time, it's different. It's not the players who went on strike, though they did dissolve the union. The owners locked them out in the attempt to force them to bend to their will. What happened in 1987 was a labor strike, and in another post you have about the actual court case, things do not sound promising when you consider that we have seen courtroom drama since April, and that there have been very little in the way of negotiations between the union and the owners since the NFLPA dissolved/the owners locked out the players. If we are to put all our apples into one basket and use that to determine what the outcome of all this will be based on past experience, then I would say we are setting ourselves up for a major disappointment. I'm not saying necessarily that this guy who wrote the article won't be correct, but if he's going to use past experience, why not fast forward from the 1980s into 2011 where the old catchphrase, "What have you done for me lately?", plays a crucial role? Why not look at the stubborn tomfoolery shown by the owners and the players and see that, pardon the weird phrasing, "They are so close that they are miles apart"? Why not look at the potential for a court case that, if appealed to the other level of the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals ("en banc something-or-other"), could be overturned and then the case could go before Supreme Court? That would be disastrous, as the court battle would last into the 2012 calendar year.

Admittedly, the last two scenarios are highly unlikely to happen, but what if the latent intentions behind one decision or another fails to bring the two sides closer on an agreement and we are left with no football? Then you will see the NFL go the way of MLB, the NBA, and the NHL and suffer huge loss in fan interest.

Originally Posted by Jimmors

Clock is ticking. GUess we will find out soon enough if there will be football in 2011

Perhaps. Do you like the smell of napalm in the morning?

Originally Posted by dabears54

Like a new CBA.... its the smell OF VICTORY : )

I'd like to napalm my cat this morning. She has woken me up on two occasions to let her back upstairs. I only slept a grand total of maybe three hours all last night.

That was a nice tribute to Apocalypse Now, wasn't it? lol

Anyway, I hope there will be a new CBA drawn up and ratified here very soon. I will admit that I am gun shy because of the court situation that this may last a little longer than we would all like, but I think surely we should see some progress made by early next month.

DB, what will happen with free agency? Are they going to extend the period out to accommodate all the teams who plan on purchasing players? Is there even a set period for free agency in the NFL?