Thread: Colts Have Major Decision To Make Regarding Manning..............

A $28 mil option is a huge chunk of change and a big cap cost for a team with the winning ticket in the Andrew Luck lottery. Ideally you'd want to draft Luck and let him learn the offense behind Manning for at one year but $28 mil is a lot to shell out for that convenience.

Part of the Colts demise has come from not being able to upgrade certain areas of the team because of the huge contracts given to guys like Manning, Harrison, Wayne, Freeney, etc. You have to think that with the seriousness of his injuries there has to be an end to the Peyton Manning era sooner or later so at what point does Jimmy Irsay decide it's time to put that money to other uses and move on?

Given the unpopularity of Mark Sanchez on the Jets team and their willingness to hire marquee QB's towards the end of their careers you have to think there's a chance Peyton Manning ends up in the Big Apple next season.

Anybody care to chime in on what they think the outcome may be?

Edit: And it's actually worse than this and the following articles tell why.

Part 1

Looking at the NFL's biggest offseason decision Andrew Brandt

Print This January 24, 2012, 06:01 AM EST
18 Comments


While Eli Manning will be one of the starting quarterbacks next week in the Super Bowl in Indianapolis, the biggest decision in the NFL this offseason will involve his older brother and the team that plays in Indianapolis. TheColts will have to decide if their future includes one Peyton Manning, the signature player and face of the franchise for the past thirteen years.


As for the Colts’ other big decision in 2012 -- who to take with the top pick in the 2012 Draft -- they have plenty of time but that's an easy decision: select Andrew Luck, with or without Peyton Manning.


Six weeks before that decision, for Colts owner Jim Irsay and new general manager Ryan Grigson, there is this little matter of Peyton Manning and his contract.


There are several layers to this decision that need to be peeled away, and Irsay and Colts must be both prudent and sensitive to Manning.


Contract expirations


In 2011, for the second time in his career with the team, the Colts allowed Manning’s contract to expire. It is curious that the Colts’ allowed the face of the franchise’s contract to lapse, something that has also now happened in New Orleans with Drew Brees. In both cases, the players and agent Tom Condon, frustrated by the pace of the negotiations, decided that they would be better served as free agents.
ICONIrsay, who has let Manning's contract expire twice, has a franchise-defining decision to make.


This was not the first time that Manning’s contract ran out as a Colt. Manning's rookie contract, signed in 1998, also played out. In both 2004 and 2011, the expired contracts were landmark deals -- the largest rookie and veteran contracts in the history of the NFL when negotiated. In both cases, the Colts followed such expiration by placing the Franchise Tag (Tag) on Manning, preventing him from going to the marketplace (which would have caused Irsay and president Bill Polian to enroll in witness protection in Indianapolis:).
The 2011 deal



Soon after the 2011 lockout ended, the Colts negotiated a new contract for Manning. And, like the two previous Manning contracts, it once again set a new standard for top compensation in the NFL.


Looking at the traditional markers for contracts, the deal had a couple twists. The total value of $90 million over five years, an Average Per Year (APY) of $18 million is identical to the APY achieved by Tom Brady a year prior. It was important to Manning at the time to not surpass Brady's APY.

The three-year value of the contract, however, tells a different story. Manning is scheduled to earn – if a Colt for the next two seasons (more below) – a total of $70.2 million over the first three years of the deal, a staggering $23.4 million APY that shatters any existing three-year value for all NFL contracts.


Beyond the five-year and three-year values, the crux of the deal centers on a decision to be made in the next two months that determines the true value of this deal.


Ominous option


The Colts must affirmatively exercise an option clause to continue to have Manning’s services for 2012 through 2015. The window of time for which that option must be exercised is between “two days following the Super Bowl until five days prior to the 2012 League Year.” In calendar terms, the Super Bowl is February 5th; the start of the 2012 League Year is March 13th. Thus, the Colts must exercise the option to keep Manning – or not – in a one month period between February 7th and March 8th.


This option is the crucial clause of Manning’s $90 million contract. And it will shape the Colts (or another franchise) for 2012 and beyond.


Let's look at that option.... (Next Page)

Part 1A

Looking at the NFL's biggest offseason decision Andrew Brandt

Print This January 24, 2012, 06:01 AM EST

19 Comments



Why the option?


The structure of Manning's contract shows a clear intent by Condon and Manning: they wanted the Colts to commit to Manning – or allow him his freedom – beyond 2011.


Manning and Condon have forced the Colts to essentially choose between two contracts for Manning: (1) a one-year, $26.4 million deal for 2011, or (2) a five-year, $90 million deal with $70 million in the first three years.


Manning and Condon were determined to not allow the Colts a structure that allowed them an exit after Manning reached a certain age of expected decline, a fate experienced by accomplished NFL players every year.


What happens if the Colts exercise the option?


If the Colts inform Manning during that window of time that they will pick up the option, they will continue to have him as their quarterback – assuming he is healthy – and will move forward with him as their leader.
That decision will cost the Colts the following:


Option bonus: $28 million


Salaries (in millions):
2012: 7.4
2013: 8.4
2014: 9.4
2015: 10.4


Thus, in 2012 alone, if the option is exercised, Manning will make $35.4 million. As to those suggesting the Colts could exercise the option, putting them on the hook for $28 million, and then trade Manning, I would highly doubt that scenario. Irsay may be a bit eccentric, but he is not going to spend $28 million to then have another team receive that value. He does not want to trade Peyton Manning, and will certainly not do so after paying him $28 million!


Thus, if the option is exercised, on top of the $26.4 million Manning made in 2011, Manning's earnings for the two-year period of 2011-12 will be almost $62 million. He will be a Colt for the life of his career and be paid more than any player in the NFL for such career.


Manning + Luck = $50 million for 2012


If the Colts exercise the option and also select Luck with the top pick in the Draft, they will be committing over $50 million for the quarterback position in 2012. While Luck’s overall compensation will "only" be approximately $23 million over four years, he will receive a signing bonus and salary of more than $15 million in the first year of his deal. That is an untenable amount of money for that position, especially when the Colts paid over $32 million at quarterback in 2011.


Where things get interesting with the Peyton Manning decision, however, is if the Colts do not exercise the option. I'll address that, and the confusing issue of whether the option date can be moved or not, in Part 2 later this week. Stay tuned.



Follow me on Twitter at adbrandt

Part 2

Signs point to the end of an era Andrew Brandt

Print This January 26, 2012, 06:01 AM EST
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Peyton Predicament, Part 1 is here, detailing what would happen if Manning’s option were exercised. Where things get interesting is if the Colts do not exercise the option.

Non-exercise fee


Were the Colts to not exercise the $28 million option by March 8th, there is a non-exercise fee of that same $28 million due two days before the 2012 League Year, March 11th.


Translation: the Colts cannot simply let the option date pass without action; to do so would put them on the hook for the same amount and not have Manning. They will have to take the affirmative step of, yes, releasing Peyton Manning.



Free agent like no other


Assuming Manning is healthy – and that may be the biggest “if” of this entire discussion – he may be the most attractive free agent in the history of football. Simply, elite quarterbacks such as Peyton Manning never hit the open market; this is why such ransoms are paid in trades for quarterbacks such as Jay Cutler and Carson Palmer.


As a released player rather than an unrestricted free agent whose contract has expired, the Colts can neither (1) place the Franchise tag on Manning, nor (2) receive a 2013 compensatory draft pick if Manning signs elsewhere.
Again, it is curious why the Colts would agree to this poorly timed option clause, but Manning used his leverage to create options for himself.

Moving the date



As to the Colts needing to decide by March 8th – before the 2012 League Year and trading period begin on March 13th – many ask “Can’t Peyton push the date back?” Theoretically, perhaps. Practically, doubtful.
ICONCondon negotiated a de facto "no trade clause" in Manning's contract.


Manning and agent Tom Condon negotiated, in effect, a “no-trade clause” without it actually being designated as such.


As to moving the date, the CBA prevents renegotiations of contracts following the last regular season game of the League Year within which the date is in. The March 8th date is in the 2011 League Year, as the 2012 League Year begins on March 13th.


The NFL Management Council would interpret the language to allow the date to be moved, suggesting a moved date is not a "renegotiation". The NFL Players Association's lawyers have a different interpretation of that language, and could contest a moved date as a renegotiation in a grievance against the NFL and the Colts. However, that discussion may be moot due to the following...


Why move the date?



Manning is in limbo right now, both medically and contractually. The medical part may be out of his control and up to Mother Nature. The contract, however, is totally in his control. He will want to know his fate as soon as possible, needing March 8th to get here as quickly as it can. Why would he prolong that?


Even if Manning were allowed and amenable to moving the date, he would not want to move it past the first couple days of the new League Year – March 13th – so if the Colts release him he would be on the market when teams make their quarterback decisions. And, of course, his neck condition will not be dramatically different in a week’s time.


As to a potential trade...

Part 2a

Signs point to the end of an era Andrew Brandt





Trade? No

The only reason I could surmise why Manning would move the option date back is to allow the Colts to receive some compensation for his services and trade him. However, Irsay has said he will not trade Manning, and being traded is certainly not in Manning’s best interests. He can become free to sign with any team in the NFL, rather than be limited to negotiating with one team through a trade.

From the Colts' perspective, they would certainly like to have the benefit of time to monitor the situation longer. But they are not the party in this negotiation with leverage.


Irsay’s call

Reading between the lines from interviews, tweets and perhaps conversations with confidante Rob Lowe, my sense is that what Irsay truly wants is for Manning to retire. Since he does not want to cut or trade Peyton Manning, that leaves two options: (1) going forward with the financial and organizational commitment to a player that has been the past and may be the present, but probably not the future, or (2) hoping Manning will retire, certainly with some continuing role on the team.

The problem for Irsay is that Manning – despite no immediate assurances from the medical side – wants to play.


What I would do

As hard as it is to part with the face of the franchise, I would move on.

The confluence of three factors – (1) a massive financial commitment required -- $35.4 million in 2012 alone, (2) an uncertain neck condition involving regeneration of nerves (this is not a shoulder or knee injury), and (3) a special player in Luck, available for half the price at the same position – all conspire towards a parting of ways.

Like the Packers and Brett Favre, the Colts would prefer a nice, easy retirement from their longtime superstar, with a non-playing role with the team to come. Sometimes, however, the script does not have a clean and tidy ending.

And like the Favre-Packers situation four years ago, there is a growing sense that change is in the air. Favre was not feeling any warmth or courtship from the front office that he had felt in prior years. The same appears true with Manning, and public relations spinning has begun. Things could get a bit messy; emotions will run high.

My sense is -- with a new general manager, a new coach and potentially a new quarterback, we are seeing an end of an era in Indianapolis. The inexorable march of time and turnover of players in the NFL continues, even at the highest levels. Even the best of NFL careers -- which Manning's certainly has been and may continue to be -- rarely end well.

March 8th beckons, with the eyes of the football world upon it.



Follow me on Twitter at adbrandt.

Andrew Brandt does a pretty incredible job of detailing and analyzing the situation the Colts face with Peyton Manning this spring. His must be one of the most complex contracts ever agreed to by an NFL team.

In the final analysis Brandt seems on target. The cost of keeping Peyton Manning outweighs the benefits received for a team with the winning ticket in the Andrew Luck derby and the cost of keeping both would be astronomical.

The best thing the Colts can do now is to use their draft choices and the cap dollars saved to rebuild the deep quickly around a new QB. They should close out their Peyton Manning era and let the Andrew Luck era begin.

NFL = Not For Long

Irsay issue kumbaya statement

Statement says QB, owner have no hard feelings toward each other. Terry McCormick

Print This January 27, 2012, 02:35 PM EST
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In one of the oddest emails I have ever opened from an NFL team, the Indianapolis Colts have basically issued a joint statement from owner Jim Irsay and quarterback Peyton Manning in an attempt to quell the spat that has garnered enough media attention to overshadow both the hiring of Chuck Pagano and preparation for the Super Bowl.


Here is what the statement says verbatim:


"We would like to dispel any misperception that there might be any hard feelings between us. Since 1998, we have enjoyed a great relationship, based upon mutual respect and trust. We have always been able to talk and address matters we’ve faced over the years, not just as owner and player, but as friends. We had a long talk today and we want to assure Colts fans everywhere that we are both committed to maintaining our close relationship and to working together through any challenges the future may bring."


And there you have it. All is well in Indianapolis. Nothing to see here ... until March 8 when Manning is likely released rather than the Colts paying him $28 million.


Follow me on Twitter @TitanInsider247 and @terrymc13
Terry McCormick covers the Titans for TitanInsider.com

Irsay issue kumbaya statement

Statement says QB, owner have no hard feelings toward each other. Terry McCormick

Print This January 27, 2012, 02:35 PM EST
Add a Comment



In one of the oddest emails I have ever opened from an NFL team, the Indianapolis Colts have basically issued a joint statement from owner Jim Irsay and quarterback Peyton Manning in an attempt to quell the spat that has garnered enough media attention to overshadow both the hiring of Chuck Pagano and preparation for the Super Bowl.


Here is what the statement says verbatim:


"We would like to dispel any misperception that there might be any hard feelings between us. Since 1998, we have enjoyed a great relationship, based upon mutual respect and trust. We have always been able to talk and address matters we’ve faced over the years, not just as owner and player, but as friends. We had a long talk today and we want to assure Colts fans everywhere that we are both committed to maintaining our close relationship and to working together through any challenges the future may bring."


And there you have it. All is well in Indianapolis. Nothing to see here ... until March 8 when Manning is likely released rather than the Colts paying him $28 million.


Follow me on Twitter @TitanInsider247 and @terrymc13
Terry McCormick covers the Titans for TitanInsider.com