After watching the championship games, what is the Bears ceiling in 2014? How do we measure up?

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by JustAnotherBearsFan99, Jan 20, 2014.

  1. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    After watching the final four this season, how do you feel we will measure up next season? Do you think we will be in that final four in 2014? As I watched Denver, Seattle, San Francisco & the Patriots I was thinking about how THIS was the level of play that we need to play at to get to a Super Bowl.

    Is that bar set too high for us to get over this coming season?

    One other thought I had watching the games was that these teams had to overcome a lot of injuries to key players to get to the championship games. They did a pretty good job of overcoming the injuries that hit every NFL team every year. I understand that we had serious injuries this year, but I think it's a slippery slope to start accepting that as an excuse for not winning championships. We had our chances this year to win the division, even though we did experience injuries. It was pleasing to watch our backup QB keep the season going, even though we lost our franchise QB for multiple games.

    Anyway, what do you guys think about our chances for unseating the Packers and reclaiming the division - and playing for a conference championship next year, like Denver, Seattle, San Francisco & the Patriots did THIS year?
  2. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    We are not a playoff team next year. SF, Sea, GB, NO's are still well in front of the Bears, the Bears are going to be competing w/Az, Phi, NY(don't think that teams not going to bounce back) for wc spots.

    The D is not there yet, and probably won't be b/c of the huge cap hit for Cutty. That's how it is right now, I'll wait until after FA and the draft to finalize. But I seriously doubt the Bears can put together the kind of D that can compete at the level of SF/Sea, and I still have my doubts about Cutty's ability to go more then 1 game w/out a pick/fumble, let alone stay healthy for an entire season.
  3. shark86x

    shark86x Pro-Bowler SuperFan

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    Simple... A bottom 10 defense is not the answer. We need a top 15 defense to go with our existing offense. I don't think Tucker is the guy who can turn this D around next year, even with the expected new talent from FA/draft. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see us in the final four next year.
  4. Jimmors

    Jimmors The Rhymenoceros Staff Member SuperFan

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    Its kind of difficult to contrast the Bears (or any other NFL team) to this year's SB teams. For the first time in history, you have the #1 Offense facing the #1 Defense in a SB.

    Will we have a #1 offense or #1 defense next season? Of course not. And since this is the first time this has ever happened in SB history, then its safe to say that you will not need the #1 O or #1 D to make the SB.

    In fact, since this has sparked my interest, i will do some research, and come up with what the "average" SB teams are in terms of their offense and defense rank (historically from SB 1 to now), and that should give a good estimate as to what the Bears need. (hint: i can already predict that our defense is going to need to improve significantly, since 32nd isnt going to cut it).

    To be continued...
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  5. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    As I stated in another thread, I think a sound FA plan and a good draft can put us in a very good position as early as next year. Can we measure up with the four teams above, well who knows. We were one of those 4 teams just a few short years ago, whether we deserved to be or not. It just all depends on how next season stacks up, not just for us, but the rest of the league. I think this year, the cream really did rise to the top like it's supposed to, but that isn't always the case. I think it's also obvious that the Seahawks and 49ers have been able to pay for tremendous Defense because they have been fortunate enough to get quality play from very cheap QB's, which will change for them very soon and it doesn't happen very often. The modern NFL changes very quickly and the Chicago Bears can too.
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  6. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    Obviously the Bears D is nowhere near where it needs to be and it's light years away from that of Seattle & SF.
    I was struck however by how 3 of the final 4 teams were pretty weak on O.

    Patriots: love 'em or hate 'em but gotta admit that Brady/Hoodie did an amazing job getting as far as they did. This team had NOTHING to work with on offense. Ridley & Vereen? Nothing special there. And the receiving corps was a bunch of 7th rounders and udfas. When Julian Edelman is your "star" weapon, you don't have much.

    Niners: Vernon Davis and Gore did practically nothing. Boldin dropped more balls than he caught. And Kap is a great improviser and runner with a big arm but he's a crappy pocket passer. Can't read coverages and makes a lot of inaccurate "WTF?" decisions and passes. I know he was facing a great D yesterday but he's been doing it all year.

    Seattle: Tate, Baldwin, and Kearse...really? Those are B- receivers at best. Reminds me a bit of Knox, Hester, and Roy Williams. Seattle's O basically comes down to Wilson scrambling, Lynch running over you, and their amazing D getting takeaways/short fields.

    I wouldn't trade the Bears O for any of the final four's except obviously Denver. But the worst D of them all (prob Denver) still runs rings around Chicago's. We would have given up 40pts to each of them and probably 50+ to the Broncos.
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  7. Jimmors

    Jimmors The Rhymenoceros Staff Member SuperFan

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    ....and continued:

    Ok, i broke down ALL of the Superbowl teams from the Bears 1985 Championship until last years matchup between the Ravens and 49ers.
    • I ranked each team in points (PF/PA), both offense and defense (most rankings are by yards)
    • I added them both to give a "ranking" for that team (lower numbers are better)
    • I averaged all of the winners and losers ranks in both offense and defense
    • I made some other notable comparisons

    The Results:
    In the last 28 Superbowls:
    • The Winning team has had an average ranking of 6.4 on Offense, and 6.2 on Defense, giving them a 12.6 ranking.
    • The Losing team has had an average ranking of 5.4 on Offense, and an 8.7 on Defense, giving them a 14.1 ranking.
    For comparison:
    In this years' Superbowl, the Broncos are ranked 1 in Offense, and 22nd in Defense, giving them a 23 ranking. The Seahawks are ranked 9th in Offense and 1 in Defense, giving them a 10 ranking (and making them the favorites). The Bears this year were ranked 2 on Offense, but 31 on defense, giving them a pitiful 33 ranking.

    So, what do these stats tell us? Traditionally, the losing team has had a slightly better offense, but a much worse defense, proving that YES, defense wins Championships. You ask how do we measure? Well, we were ranked 2nd on offense. Since SB Winners average a 12.6, then that pretty much means our defense needed to be ranked 10th or 11th for us to have enough balance to win a Superbowl. Which makes sense...had we had a 10th ranked defense, we wouldve easily won the division, and probably a bye week, and had a decent shot of at least playing Seattle for the NFC Championship, or even a Superbowl. So for next year, if we can improve our defense to around 10th or 11th, (top third of the league), it should bode well for our chances.

    Some more interesting factoids about the Superbowl Teams and Rankings:
    1. The #1 ranked Offense has played in 12 of the last 28 Superbowls (42%), winning 7 of those (25%).
    2. The #1 ranked Defense has played in 9 of the last 28 Superbowls (32%), winning 7 of those (25%).
    3. With the previous fact, if the #1 Defense makes the Superbowl, they are almost guaranteed to win it (7 of 9 or 77%). Looking at you Seattle.
    4. Superbowl XXXI featured the only time the Superbowl winner was the #1 Offense AND the #1 Defense. (Unfortunately, this was the Packers)
    5. 1985 Bears came close, having the #2 Offense and the #1 Defense.
    6. The worst ranking for a Superbowl Winner was the NY Giants in XLVI, they were ranked 9th on Offense, 25th on Defense (34 rank)
    7. Since 2000, There have been only two teams to win the Superbowl that have had a combined rank of less than 10: SB34 Rams (1st in O, 4th in D, 5 rank), and SB39 Patriots (4th in O, 2nd in D, 6 rank).
    8. The last 7 SB Winners had rankings of: 22, 34, 12, 21, 21, 31, 25. So even if the Bears can managed a defense ranked around 18-20, and a 2nd Ranked O again, there's still a chance.
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2014
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  8. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    Nice work Jim, very nice work.
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  9. phatdude

    phatdude Rookie

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    Jimmors is right, the numbers don't lie. JA and Lovie did us a disservice in recent years by not addressing the O sooner. With our past D and This years O we probably would have made it to the final 4 or at least division champs.

    Next year will be rough, BUT it IS possible. How many teams turned it around in one season? Well we did! At least on Offense. Last year at this time we had almost the worst offense. This year it was 180.

    A LOT has to happen though, and it has to be just right for it to work. Clean house on D, get some new talented blood, better attitude, keep the vets healthy. Pray the O keeps scoring and we have a shot...

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