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Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by soulman, Mar 20, 2014.
Can you imagine the fun with Ebron :14_6_12:
Notice how he has said the Draft will be centered on D, but constantly talks about the Depth of DT and DB? Would it REALLY suprise anyone if he went Ebron at 14, 2-4 Def, QB 5th, Def and RB 6th?
Emery is a complete wild card when it comes to the draft, he don't give a F$*@K
When you have the #14 pick and there are at least two or three top guys that most everyone attributes to you it's not time to get too clever and do another Shea McClellin thing. If he was back in the mid 20s I could see it but where he's at the picks should be pretty easy to see. I'm just hoping that both DTs are still there and at least one of the Safeties. I don't think he can ignore that and go for a shocker.
I'm not against LB or CB.
The guy who suggested LB is right. Biggs is old and Bostic wasn't that good. And who's saying McLellin works out either. If Mosley really is a complete lock at MLB and the elite talent capable of flowing to the ball and disrupting the run and pass then he's worth it. Bostic (post Briggs retirement) and McLellin can play around him and maybe we get ourselves a traditional Bears LB corp again.
The guy who suggested CB may have done this prediction before Tillman returning news was in. Either way though Tillman is probably now on his last year and his knee isn't going to get any better. I would prefer a shut down corner signed up even if the guy sits for a fair bit of his rookie year learning the system than a safety who comes in and plays but is only limited. The importance of safety might be growing but this free agency showed me that a shut down corner still gets paid much more than a run stuffing safety. If Pryor is in line with Ward and Whitner he's getting 6 or 7 mil, a shut down corner gets 8-10 or more
Draft is about long term. As good as Long and Mills were as impact rookie starters on offense you can't let that guide you to draft for needs. I'm all for DT and safety if Emery is confident he's getting a high quality guy. But there's no point taking a guy who you aren't convinced on just to fill a need instead of drafting the shut down corner or stud LB.
Most of the analyst are seldom correct when evaluating the Bears logic. The Bears seldom draft who you think they should draft. I suspect they will draft a DB, I don't think they are ready to bail on Bostic & Greene yet. They may take a lineman either DL or OL but if they do it will be a guy they can probably get in the second round. I don't see them paying 1st round lineman wages to anybody. If I was a bettin' man I would bet on a Safety.
The main reason I don't see him taking a DE early is two fold. One they aren't outstanding pass rushers (good maybe but not elite) and two the sheer number of DEs he already has signed vs the shortage of DTs. What has always made the Bears edge rush more effective has been that push and penetration up the middle. That's what keeps guys like Rodgers and Stafford from stepping up and picking us apart and it's what Seattle did to keep Manning rattled all game long. You have to get in their face because especially in Rodgers case he's slippery enough to avoid the edge rush at times. He can roll away from it and still get a pass off but he can't step into a throw or even see his receivers as well when there a quick DT about to nail him in his grill.
I know you have your own reasons to dislike Donald but if the Bears objective is to get a better pass rush going, especially when the just let their best two walk and it doesn't look like they're signing the third than it makes a lot of sense to draft the best pass rusher you can get. With Clowney and Mack off the board the next guy up is Donald. In fact he's pretty much head and shoulders above the net best guy as far as the pass rush is concerned. I don't deny the need a FS but does it outstrip the need to better the pass rush? I would say that 9 out of 10 GMs would not pass up an elite pass rusher for Safety if both were ranked equally as far as their draft rating goes. It far easier to find guys to play Safety then it is to find exceptional 3 tech DTs. If they were that plentiful I doubt Melton would have drawn the attention he did. Wootton has more sacks than he did in 2012 and showed more versatility, they both have had surgeries, yet Melton has a contract with $1.25 mil guaranteed yet Wootton is still waiting for his first call.
That's the big difference between Aaron Donald and Kony Ealy. A very good 3 tech DT trumps a very good DE. Things may change even more between now and May so let's look at the simpler facts that we know now and use only that to look at the highest probability. What has Phil Emery done so far and what has he left undone? He needed defensive linemen (more specifically DEs) and he needed Safeties and he needed one vet CB to start. He got Peanut back so we can eliminate that plus he added vet depth on the cheap with Hayden who play NB but could play CB too in a pinch. Then he signed two Safeties from the outside and added two more yesterday although at least two if not three are pretty much STeams guys. But he also has Conte and he hasn't given up on him yet. So even without any further improvement he has two starting Safeties and at least some competition for them. But I agree he still needs at least one more prospect.
When you look at the DLine he's gone overboard on DEs. He lined up vet LDE types in Lane and Scott for depth before FA ever began and then added Houston and Young as his projected starters. Then with Wootton still questionable he added Izzy for insurance. On top of that he has four other young DEs on the roster, Bass, Washington, Ozougwu, and Robertson. That's nine guys competing for four roster slots. Several guys ain't gonna make it. Now count the DTs. Ratliff, Paea, Collins.................. That's three or three and a half if I figure Izzy as half DE and half DT. So if we use a 4 man DT rotation where's the bigger need, DE or DT? We probably need at least two DT out of the draft and UDFAs unless the plan is to move Houston into DT and that's not really what he was signed to do but like Izzy he could be moved around. The glaring hole in all of this now that Melton is gone for good is a top pass rushing DT. They might as well hang out a neon sign saying we need a 3 tech DT.
So to me what it comes down to and what's left undone is a pass rushing 3 tech DT and a FS and IMHO in that same order. So I look at Donald in the first and hope I can land him and Ward or maybe Bucannon in two or three as my Safety or if Donald is gone and I then rate FS above Jernigan at DT then I take Pryor maybe and hope I can get Quarles in two. My final point here would be that anytime you pass up and elite pass rusher these days hoping the next one of the list will fall to you later in the second (because we draft at #19 there) you're taking a huge risk #2 won't last that long. Every other team who needed one and missed out on Donald or Jernigan is gonna be looking at Quarles and I don't know if he'll last until out pick in two. So this is my story and I'm stickin' to it.
Which is why he'll fool everybody. Farmer Bob, from tiny Peoria School of Agriculture, will be our #14 guy. Emery will stun everybody with this pick.
Now this dude has really short arms. What position does he play. Left tit puller on the dairymen's line?
If Emery hadn't committed so heavily to LB last year and if McClellin wasn't moving to LB and if we didn't have two savvy vets in Briggs and Williams to hold down the fort for one more year I'd be all over Mosley too. He's the best ILB by far but when I weigh it out today there's still a bigger hole to fill at DT than at MLB. Some of what I'm basing this on is also looking at where Emery has his starters and where he doesn't. If you have that #14 pick you'd like to use it on a starter.
The only real competition at LB should be at SAM. Not only hasn't Bostic shown he can even play MLB but he also shown no aptitude for running the defense so to me that's two strikes against him an anyway he should he Briggs heir apparent. His game is best suited to WLB. With McCellin it's somewhat the same. Even if he shows the skills to play MLB he still needs to learn to play LB period before he's entrusted with playing MLB and running the defense. His failed experiment at DE has set him back at least one year in that regard.
I wouldn't rule Mosley out but he'd be my dark horse. "Emery fooled us all again" prospect. They could start him at SLB I suppose but then what do they do with McCellin? If they start him at MLB he's taking another chance that he's put him there too soon before he could assimilate both the defense and the position. MLB is the QB of the defense and it usually takes some time for a guy to make that transition especially when he's been playing in a 3-4. All that aside I wouldn't object to the pick. I think he's gonna be a hell of a good football player.
If the guy who predicted Dennard was reading his news he could have seen that Tillman was back in the fold three days before he wrote his prediction. And I think my comment on it goes more to knowing how the Bears and Emery usually work. It's not like them to draft a guy in round one and plan to sit him for a year. Since he's invested in his two starting CBs already that pushes CB down even farther on the list and probably something they try and cover in the following three rounds but not the first. Also if Tucker tends to use zone coverage as much as Lovie did then they really don't need a shut down corner whose good in man coverage but struggles in zone. That was Zack Bowman.
Again, I'm basing all of this on where the major needs are today and it's at DT and FS. This all may change over the next month and half but as of today this is the way it looks and based on raw need I'd rank it DT, FS, ILB.
Remember, Emery is Mr.Opposite,he's done the exact opposite in just about everything he says. Makes me think he goes offense and Ebron seems an actual likely candidate.
Other than that, I think he goes CB