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Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by soulman, Jun 24, 2014.
If Carey could be between SWEETNESS and Barry Sanders in scat moves ...
So can I Ski. In fact in 2 years Forte will want another big contract if he's still effective & healthy. As much as I like Forte I love our Bears so if Carey can "be the Guy" in a couple years it will help us alot. I think he can & hope he does. I was hoping we would pick him in the 3rd rd as I watched alot of his tape pre-draft & was very impressed. I thought getting him in the 4th rd was a steal. Time will tell.
Carey's not going to be "the guy" ya'll are dreaming. He's not going to be the Bears Eddie Lacy.
well with our west coast style of play, I can see him taking over for forte.
do we really need a big RB if we are able to spread the field with our passing?
we needed big runners due to our bad passing game. Hopefully that wont be the case this year.
look at the prev 2 sb winners for that answer Ski, both had really good rb's, and the both their opponents had solid, if not near elite rb's also(gore for SF last year), and Den had a solid run game also.
RB's aren't a dime a dozen as many claim, and you need a guy that can chew the clock, if not take over a game; especially when Cutler goes down for his standard 2-8 games.
Yeah but Forte didn't make any holes. Our run offense was pretty bad IMO.
Yeah the stat doesn't show that, but I remember a LOT of times where Forte got stopped at the line.
I can't really argue anything without a game as an example. Usually we would have one big run that would make the stats look different.
I just remember every game we'd had to pound it out 1-2 yards at a time. Eventually we'd break a long run, but for the most part we were not consistent.
Time will tell. I really like this Carey kid after seeing a couple of videos.
Bears rushing stats 2014
24th in attempts and attempts per game
16 in total yards
17th in TD's
7th in ypa
16 in first downs
4th in 1st down %
7th in fewest fumbles
so even though the team was bottom 3rd in total attempts/attempts per game every other stat was near top 1/2 or top 1/3rd in production. What else do you want from a guy that finished top 3 in every meaningful stat for his position; minus attempts/attempts per game? And why do you think a smaller slower 4th round rookie is going to be his equal let alone his better anytime soon?
I like Carey, but nothing about him says, let alone screams, future 50 game starter for the Bears. He's a great backup, and maybe his top ceiling, if everything works out is future starter, but he's not that now.
go to player vs player comparison, rushing only not rec's. *for some stats i'm only looking at rb's w/at least 200 attempts b/c averages get skewed w/a guy that had 1 long run, and it's easy for guys w/20 attempts to have 0 fumbles etc.
7th in attempts per game/3rd in attempts(odd to think about)
2nd in yards
4th in ypa(tied)
4th in ypg
6th in TD's
2nd in 1st downs
2nd in 1st down %
2nd in 20 yard runs
1st in 40 yard runs(tied)
7th in fumbles(tied)*he had 2
If you add in rec's I think you'll find many of these #'s go from below top 5 to over top 5. But again, fewer attempts/attempts per game, but higher production.
Now look at the Bears total offense was 6109 yards, forte was 1933 total yards. making him 32% of the teams Offense(not his 40+% of past but this was a better O around him so to be expected), and he scored 33% of the teams TD's; but Carey is going to just step in and be better?
You all have way to high of hopes for Carey, if ANYONE thought he had that time of potential he would have went in the 2nd round; but to be honest I hope you're all right b/c that would make Carey the biggest steal in the draft and the Bears would have a top 5 rb in waiting.
When it comes time a RB like Matt Forte won't be easy to replace. I don't think Carey is that kind of back but I'll hold my judgment until I've seen him play for a couple of years as a pro.
@riczaj01 like I said, I can't back it up with stats.
Basically it's from my gut. I just like this kid after seeing his highlights. Will that translate into the NFL, time will tell.
Something about Forte just doesn't sit with me. Yeah he's had some big runs, but he's been run down many times.
I just feel that we could put almost any RB that can catch in his spot, and they would put up the numbers he has.
Like I said, he is not doing to get us tough yardage. He's not someone who can get yardage every down.
his stats are pretty good, but if you take away his big plays, you get mow much per yard.
Lemme show you an example of what I mean using last year.
Ok, lets break this down using his rushing attempts, minus his longest runs of each game.
What I'm doing is taking his long run out of the stats. I'm even removing that "attempt" from the formula.
Week 1 - 2.27 per carry
Week 2 - 3.37 per carry
Week 3 - 2.13 per carry
Week 4 - 3.23
Week 5 - 3.72
Week 6 - 3
Week 7 - 2.7
Week 8 - 4.69
Week 9 - 1.62
Week 10 - 3.7
Week 11 - 3.4
Week 12 - 3.9
Week 13 - 4.42
Week 14 - 4.47
Week 15 - 2.12
Week 16 - 4.28
so four weeks he had over 4 yards per carry, if you subtract his longest runs for that game. Shit, some of those games he had like 95 yards total, and (1) 50 yard run. That 50 yard run brough his average up alot. I understand that counts, but when you run the ball 20 times, thats not saying alot.
If you look at LeSean McCoy who led the lead in rushing yards, when he had big runs, he had almost 200 yards for that game.
So my point is only that we grind it out with Forte, and most of the time he falls forward for a couple of yards. His stats don't show that 9/10 runs are less than 4 yards.
Thats all I'm saying. I don't know how much is because of the line, but I just don't see him as a great runner. Above average most likely.
2013 REGULAR SEASON GAME LOGRUSHINGRECEIVINGFUMBLESDATEOPPRESULTATTYDSAVGLNGTDRECYDSAVGLNGTDFUMLSTSun 9/8
W 24-2119502.69144110.324 Sun 9/15
W 31-3020884.424 10737.313 11Sun 9/22
W 40-2316875.45514246.011 Sun 9/29
L 32-4014956.85315224.48 Sun 10/6
L 18-2612554.614 44010.015 Thu 10/10
W 27-2119673.513 6447.313 Sun 10/20
L 41-4516915.75032189.011 Mon 11/4
W 27-20241255.217155410.833 Sun 11/10
L 19-2117331.97 4164.07 Sun 11/17
W 23-20 (OT)18834.620 5428.4141 Sun 11/24
L 21-4216774.826 7405.713 11Sun 12/1
L 20-23 (OT)231205.241 23115.526 Mon 12/9
W 45-28201025.118 77310.4341 Sun 12/15
W 38-31241275.324 144.04 Sun 12/22
L 11-549293.212 4256.310 Sun 12/29
L 28-33221105.020244711.8331 REGULAR SEASON STATS2891,3394.6559745948.034322
You say he's been run down many times, but what do you think is going to happen to the smaller slower Carey is getting 20-30 snaps? Think somehow he's going to break away even though he's not faster then Matt?
You cannot, EVER take away yards from a RB. The reason you give your starting rb 20-30 carries is b/c eventually they WILL break a long run, no team wants their RB to ONLY get 4-5 yards a carry, and never break one off for 10-20-40 yards.
LeSean McCoy was a 2nd round draft pick and is a small 4.5 50 speedster who lead the league in rushing. Carey is smaller and weighs about the same but ran a 4.6+. Forte is taller and heavier then both, his style isn't even close he's not using his speed.
Here are Shady's averages w/oout the longest run:
ATTYDSAVGLNGyards - lngavg-lng311845.9341505.0011534.817361.20201587.9411173.9016734.615581.9320462.317290.97251164.619973.2318553.110451.5015483.29391.3012443.717270.90251556.2301254.1720773.916612.0319794.219602.00292177.5571605.338384.816220.73181337.4191143.80271314.9201113.70
So his best was 5.33 per game, and his worst was .73. Guess Philly should look at replacing Shady b/c he's losing a step. I'd point out that Forte's best was better and his worst wasn't as bad.
Listen you could be right, although one of the main reasons people refused to consider Forte elite since his rookie year is his lack of finishing speed, so I'm not sure that's really changed. Forte might be losing a step. BUT that doesn't mean Carey can take his place, it just means the Bears need to draft a kid w/#1 RB capabilities, and Carey isn't that guy.
Carey is a great copmlimentary back, who MAYBE could be a number 1, but nothing about him says he's a #1 right now, and if it did, if his college production had said #1 rb, he wouldn't have fallen to the Bears in the mid 4th.
Highlights are bogus, they don't tell you anything, it's fun to watch but it's not real.
I agree, highlights can certainly make Rex Grossman look like a HOF QB.
With this situation, it's purely my opinion. There isn't anything to really back it up, other than what I'm seeing.
Forte isn't a bad back by any means. I'm just saying I can see Carey being swapped out for Forte without much of a loss.
Ski, again I hope you're right, but there is NOTHING that says or shows it. Forte is still an absolute beast right now, he's still a top 10 back, even if he loses a step, and by asking a 4th round smaller slower rookie to step in w/little to no loss is asking way to much imo.
It's not a knock against Carey, it's just not rational to expect him to be better then Forte until you see him play.
I can't wait to see what Trestman does with these guys. He's got a lot of talent, and he a coach to exploit their talents.
The one thing I would say is Lovie Smith on paper is a pretty solid coach and why would we fire a coach that went 10-6 that season.
It's just a gut feeling I have.
Lovie was fired b/c he constantly under acheived, rarely made the playoffs, and never beat GB anymore. That 10-6 season was the outlier over the past several years and Emery and HH knew it.
btw, the math was wrong in that earlier post not going to post it all again, b/c the graph would be huge, but I removed the longest run of each game for Shady, Forte, Beastmode, Charles, Morris, AD, and Matthews and Lacy.
When you take out the longest run, from eacah game, and you subtract that attempt from their total, they all still averaged over 4ypc(except lacy), which is what you want.
I broke down the amount of games the players had averages under 3ypc and games over 3ypc, here's how it broke down per player(this is a smaller easier to read graph, I hope you trust my math b/c im not showing my work.
player3+ ypcsub 3ypcShady124Matthews124Charles114Forte115Morris115A-D105Beast Mode97Lacy77
So Shady and Matthews are the best, but only by 1 game of 3+ and 1 game of sub 3. that's a razor then line, and I don't know how many people would really want Matthews over Forte, although I've contended that I would be happy w/both Shady and Charles. Lacy was highly over rated last year though, he really was all or nothing.
Now what does this have to do w/Carey and how he might be able to step in for Forte. If you tink that Carey could step in w/little to no drop off, what you are saying is that you think this kid could play at a top 7 level w/some of best rb's in the league; and imo that is highly unfair to put those expectations on the kid, if you think he could do better you are saying he could play at the level of the best RB in the game last year, which is just absurd, forget about forte, the kid should not have expectations of playing at a level of Charles, let alone Shady.
I'm not trying to argue on paper. I said that in one of my earnest posts. Forte's stats don't reflect what my opinion is of him.
Forte looks great on paper, I know that.
Like I said with Lovie, I could switch it and say that according to the stats, Lovie hardly under performed. His stats say one thing, but we all know differently.
Thats the only way I can describe how I feel about Forte.
I stress, I like Forte, I just think he's losing a step. He's still good.
Lastly, Forte's combine speed was 6½ years ago. I'm sure he's lost a little off that time.
Time will tell, and Carey does have a weight issue. Let's face it, he's listed at 184lbs. Even Reggie Bush is bigger than that.
Maybe you think I'm trying to prove that Forte is garbage? Clearly I'm not.
I'm pretty sure that Carey is closer to 210.
It's not that Ski, my entire point is that to many people are putting way to high expectations on Carey and it's entirely unfair. There is nothing about his game that says he can be a instant starter, he's small(height and weight) and he's not exceptionally fast.
Could he be? Sure but to heap those expectations on him isn't fair to him. Let him play, let him develop, and see how he's able to build his game in the NFL. But no one should expect a 4th round kid to be able to simply step in for a top 10, let alone top 5 rb.
As for Lovie, the only stats that matter are playoff appearances and wins, and he was severely lacking both since his SB appearance and humiliating loss.
jbunch, all his information has him at 5'9, 5'10 and 196-207. That's the size/weight of a guy that should be 4.5 or faster; not a 4.6 guy. Now his game could translate faster, but until that happens on an NFL field it's to much to ask that he is anymore more then a backup.
Don't disagree with you at all. Just stating his roster weight is much more than the 184 listed above.
Hmm.. Just rechecked it, where the hell did I get 184lbs?