Consensus of 19 Mocks Say Bears 1st Pick Is?...............

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by soulman, Apr 22, 2014.

  1. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Mock consensus: Pitt DT Aaron Donald to Bears at No. 14
    April 20, 2014, 7:45 pm
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    Mock drafts are well-named – “mock” – because they are non-binding and more often than not, non-accurate. But while weather vanes may not always serve to deliver spot-on weather predictions, they can sometimes provide some idea of which direction winds are blowing.

    And NFL teams do multiple ones themselves, the operative word being “multiple” because of the myriad scenarios that can play out on draft days.

    So with the draft now less than three weeks away, CSNChicago.com took a spin through 19 different mock drafts from multiple major entities covering the NFL, with an eye toward gauging the current direction of the wind at No. 14. The results:

    9 Aaron Donald, DT, Pitt
    5 Timmy Jernigan, DT, Fla. State
    2 Ra’Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
    1 Ha-Sean Clinton-Dix, S, Alabama
    1 Calvin Pryor, S, Louisville
    1 Justin Gilbert, CB, Okla. State

    Irrespective of specific players, the preponderance of thought is that the Bears will work from the ball outward, meaning a defensive tackle before a defensive back. An elite defensive lineman will typically have a greater impact on a defense than one in the secondary, particularly at safety.

    Like every team, the Bears will go into the draft with a cluster of 3-7 players carrying grades worth their particular draft slot in a particular round. Not all will be there when their turn comes, but the approach gives a gauge for determining how far if at all the Bears could trade down and still get a premier talent in the range they seek.

    Donald projects as the disruptive three-technique central to the single-gap 4-3 scheme that will be the Bears’ base. And from the early takeaway from the mock drafts – some with more insight or connections with teams above or around the Bears – the prevailing sentiment is that the Bears will address the all-important defensive line first, then come back for a defensive back in Round 2.
  2. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    LOL I wonder how many mocks had Long or Shea pegged in the past two years? All I know is that this draft cannot come soon enough. Were all ramming our heads against walls at this point, including all the "expert" mocks.
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  3. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Pitt’s Aaron Donald a stretch for Bears at No. 14
    February 23, 2014, 8:30 pm
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    INDIANAPOLIS – Pittsburgh defensive tackle Aaron Donald wants to play in the kind of defensive scheme that the Bears run. And he has the right NFL role model for himself.

    Donald was asked about playing for the Dallas Cowboys, although his answer had a considerably wider reach. He specifically mentioned his affinity for the Dallas style of 4-3, defense, which is a one-gap style under the coaching of former Bears coordinator and line coach Rod Marinelli. The Bears have stayed with that style and Donald suggested that he has the kind of versatility craved by current defensive coordinator Mel Tucker.

    “I played nose tackle, played a three-man front in the 5-[technique], 3-tech,” Donald said at this weekend’s NFL Scouting Combine. “I moved around in college a lot, so being versatile the way I am, I feel like that's a plus for me.”

    Donald is projected to be available when the Bears draft at No. 14, or even down lower in the first round if the Bears fashion a trade.

    But he measured just short of 6-foot-1 and less than 290 pounds. And that is perhaps an issue.
    “The problem with the shorter defensive tackles is that when they don't win with their first move, they don't win with their quickness, they can get stuck on blocks because they don't have the length to get off the block,” said NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock. “And that's the concern with Donald."

    Bears fit:
    The height may be more of an issue than the bulk. One reason Shea McClellin, at 6-foot-3, struggled at times at defensive end was that he was simply unable to see over taller right tackles when in a normal stance. It may not be as critical at guard, where the blockers are typically shorter than tackles (although Kyle Long is 6-foot-6), but in nickel-rush situations, teams routinely shift defensive ends inside for the added height. Only nose tackles Stephen Paea and Landon Cohen were less than 6-foot-2, and they both weighed in closer to 300 pounds.

    Donald’s NFL role model is Cincinnati’s Geno Atkins, who has been a Pro Bowl selection at 6-foot-1. But the average for 2013 Pro Bowl tackles was 6-foot-3.5, with only Buffalo’s Kyle Williams (6-foot-1) shorter than 6-foot-3.

    Donald’s weight was at 285 pounds at the Combine, too light even for most speed-based single-gap systems. He, like Atkins, may prove an exceptional talent, but hoping for an “exception” at No. 14 is the definition of high risk.
  4. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    True but if it's draft related and written by a guy I respect and who does know the Bears because he's Comcasts beat reporter for them then I'll post if just for informational sake. I also posted the accompanying article from the Combine questioning whether or no Donald was "reach" (God I hate that word) at #14. I think since then he's solidified his spot as a top 20 pick.
  5. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Donald is not likely to be there at 14, and Emery has says he wants linement w/size athletisim before speed, said you can win w/speed but to win longterm battles you need size more.
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  6. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    This pretty much sums it up. It boils down to how confident Emery is about this guy being an elite talent. IF he is then great. I'm so tired of first round misses by the Bears. I'm just hoping Emery gets it right no matter who he spends our #14 pick on. DT, S, CB or whatever.....we need for him to get us an elite talent with this pick. We may not pick this high again for years (a good "problem" to have I guess).
  7. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Looking at that list and eliminating Gilbert and Dix because I don't expect them to be on the board at #14, and also eliminating Jernigan because I don't think he's a guy the Bears are that hot on, it leaves up with Donald, Hageman, and Pryor.

    They all have a certain degree of risk surrounding the pick but I admit that I'm getting comfortable with anyone of them. I still think Donald is their guy if he's there because he's a perfect fit for that 4-3 front and because any way you look at it, other than his size, his other stats and college productivity are top of the heap.

    If he's taken then it comes down to Hageman and Pryor and for me it's too close to call. Each one meets a different need and which need then becomes highest I can't say. I may lean toward Hageman only because a physical freak like him won't be around later whereas other decent Safeties will be.
  8. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    This is the part that worries me a lot. It just screams "Shea McClellin" to me - a DT version of that draft. That #14 pick is pretty precious. We probably won't get another that high for years to come. I know, it's a good problem to have :-) but if there is any significant doubt in Emery's mind, then don't roll the dice with this pick. Only Emery knows the answer to this.....I sure don't. But I do worry about blowing yet another first round pick. We've done that far to many times in recent years. They trot the guy out for the photo op holding that #1 jersey and then in a few years we're cutting them. It gets old.
  9. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    That was my first reaction when I saw his name being listed as a potential pick but that was before the Combine when they had him at 6' and 275lbs. He's an inch taller and 10lbs and change heavier than that. Atkins is 6'1" as well and is only 5-8lbs heavier and Donald could easily play at 290lbs give or take so I no longer think he's that small.

    Some of the best pass rushing DTs ever were about his size. John Randle was 6'1" and 280-285lbs., Steve McMichael was 6'2" and 280lbs, Warren Sapp was 6'2" and around 295-300lbs, Kyle Williams is 6'1" and 300lbs. So at most at 285-288lbs he's 10-12lbs lighter than the current prototype but he's also faster and stronger than most of the others too.

    He needs to play in the right kind of defense and the Bears and Cowboys are pretty much a perfect fit for him. If he's there and we don't take him I'm sure the Cowboys will and I still don't put it past them to try and leap frog us for him.
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  10. The Benjamin

    The Benjamin George Halas Staff Member

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    Gee.... Why am I not surprised
  11. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Who was McShay's consensus pick the last 2 years? I bet it was not Shea and Long; I'm betting more along the lines of DeCastro and Te'O
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  12. BelieveInMonsters

    BelieveInMonsters Veteran

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    Hate to say it but this most likely means that the Bears will not get Donald at #14.

    Mocks are wrong 99.9 percent of the time. As just one example, last year's drafts had us taking either a TE (Eifert) or a LB (Brown or Te'o)
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2014
  13. Grendel

    Grendel Rookie

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    I believe Mel Kiper Jr had both going to us at one point or another in his mock process. McClellin and Long that is.
  14. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    He had us taking linebacker, Dont'a Hightower, in 2012. We passed on Hightower at #19 and the New England Patriots drafted him a few picks after we took Shea. Hightower led the Patriots in tackles this year. His 1st game as a rookie he returned a forced fumble for a TD. He's been pretty solid.

    Shea? I figure if he doesn't fit at LB after losing the weight & moving from DL to LB, the Bears can always have him lose 40 more pounds and replace Conte next year. Get him down to 200 pounds or so and maybe the following year we can try him at CB. If that doesn't work then maybe he'll be ready for a try at "The Hester Package" :lol 027:
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  15. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    If all else fails send him to Tampa. Love could use a #1 WR and Hester is elsewhere.
  16. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    Yeah, Dont'a Hightower was the correct pick in 2012 and I remember alot of us here wanting him or DeCastro (who was also still there)

    I'll hold off on judgement for now, well see how Shea does at LB.
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  17. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    I am hoping we do not take Donald. I see him as high risk, sorry Soul, but that is my opinion. I give him all the credit in the world for what he accomplished and he has been awesome. Small pt he is approx. 2o pounds lighter than Atkins and he is maxed out. Might make a awesome MLB if he can cover but I may eat my words here but I see bust in NFL. Bigger faster linemen will counter his speed and I see high risk in Donald. JMHO. Below sums up how I see Donald, which implies a situational player, not an everydown starter which per all the other qualifiers of playing everydown to me disqualifies Donald as a RD 1 pick. If we take him I understand it and hope like hell I am wrong but that is JMHO.

    upload_2014-4-22_20-33-39.png
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  18. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    I think this is why Emery said he would prefer his DL big and athletic over just fast. I'd be happy w/Donald if they got him; but I don't think he's this dead lock at starting DL for the next 8 years either. I'd be much happier w/one of the top CB's or S's over the top DT this year.
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  19. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Aw................and I was trying so hard. :13 10 8[1]:

    Who let the cat out of the bag?
  20. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Well 9 out of 19 say we will so that's roughly half and the 5 say Jernigan so that's 14 out of 19 almost 3/4 of them who think it will be a DT. Personally I don't they're all that interested in Jernigan. Donald, Hageman or Pryor. One of those three. That where the best odds will be.

    This seems like an appropriate time to make another comment seeing as how 17 out 19 (90%) believe it will be a DT. The argument against spending our first pick on a S vs a DT is actually pretty simple. Games are won in the trenches not in the defensive backfield. I didn't make it that was it just is.

    In 2012 when our pass rush was strong no one worried much about Wright and Conte. Both seemed to be doing well and for intents and purposes it looked like we had two young Safeties who would resolve the revolving door of players we've had playing there over the past decade. Now onto 2103 and it was a disaster.

    Take away the pass rush and the run stopping ability of the line and the LBs and bam. Wright is gone and Conte his being hung in effigy and persecuted for costing us the playoffs. That's wrong but a few will never be convinced of that. So reassemble a line that can rush the passer so he doesn't have 5 seconds to throw all time and tie down the running of the bad guys with better line and LB play and wow! We're right back to 2012 again when the two worst Safeties in the NFL looked OK. Not great mind you but still OK. You could win with them and we did.

    There is no doubt in my mind that we need to add competition and upgrade in that area and Uncle Phil has already done that so he didn't need to prioritize a Safety and allow himself more flexibility in the draft. If the BPA at #14 is a S then I imagine he'll take him but I have my doubts that will be the case.

    If anyone thinks that the Safety position on this team is more important than a pass rushing DT then I would claim that you don't know your team very well. It isn't and never has been. The Bears draft history will tell you that if your care to take the time to look. We've only drafted one S in the first round in the last 60 years (that's as far back as I went) or more but we've drafted a dozen of more DTs, DEs, and LBs. Those are what makes the Bears defense strong. Not Safeties.
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2014

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