Cutler's 2013 stats if trended for a full 16-game season.

Discussion in 'Front Page News' started by JustAnotherBearsFan99, Jul 7, 2014.

  1. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I was curious how Jay's stats would have trended out for a full 16-game regular season. I was also curious how these stats would have compared with some of the better NFL quarterbacks. I thought some others here might be interested in how it trended out, so I'm posting the data below. Any QB's that had fewer than 16 games, I also trended their stats out for a full 16-game season. Then, since I was doing this for other QB's, I went ahead and trended out Josh McCown's stats for a full 16-game season also.

    [​IMG]
    Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall (Getty Images)
    One thought that I had when I ran these numbers is that Jay had (arguably) some of the best offensive weapons in the NFL supporting him this past year, along with one of the better offensive minded head coaches. Jay had two Pro Bowl receivers, along with M.Bennett, a really solid TE & on top of that he had one of the best receiving RB's in the entire NFL (Forte made some unbelievable catches this past season.....as he always does each year). So Jay was surrounded by top-level NFL talent, including a good offensive line (and the OL started all 16 games with the same 5 guys).

    I'm curious how others view this data. What's your reaction to the numbers trended for a full season?

    The below data is from nfl.com and trended for a full 16-game regular season:

     CutlerP. ManningD. BreesA. RodgersTom BradyP. RiversJosh McCownB. Roethlisberger R. WilsonM. RyanN. FolesC. Kaepernick
    Passing Yards3812.45477.05162.04508.44343.04478.03658.04261.03357.04515.03558.23197.0
    TD's27.655.039.030.225.032.026.028.026.026.033.221.0
    Interceptions17.510.012.010.711.011.02.014.09.017.02.58.0
    Fumbles7.310.06.07.19.03.06.09.010.05.04.96.0
    Completion %63.168.368.666.660.569.566.564.263.167.464.058.4
    QB Rating89.2115.1104.7104.987.3105.5109.092.0101.289.6119.291.6
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  2. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    What hurts Jay and always has is the number of picks he throws. I suspect those will lessen a bit in year two of him running the same offense but he's never gonna get away from them altogether. Guys like him never do.

    The only other QB on this list that could even come close to comparing with Cutler as more of a "gunslinger" type is Brees and much like Rodgers and Brady he's been running that same offense for quite a while now and under a HC who IMHO is every bit the guru that Trestman is.

    What helps McCown's rating a lot is his lack of picks which elevates his QBR but in the other categories he and Cutler are virtually neck and neck. If this tells us anything it may be that using the term "QB friendly" to describe Trestman's offense is a perfect description and that even a QB of modest talent can do well in it.

    This is a great work up 99. Thanks for doing this.

    :guinness:
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  3. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    One thing that jumped out at me from those stats is Brady's year. He had a very tough season (for him). The Pats had serious injury woes like we did, and it's interesting to note that even a solid vet QB like Brady struggles to overcome a season where the team is pounded with key injuries.

    I'm really hoping we have a better season injury-wise. And everything-else-wise too :-)
  4. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    This morning I made a comparison of Jay's stats that compared his improvement from 2012 to 2013. The improvement was significant:

    Statistics are from NFL.com
    YearGAttCompPctAtt/GYdsAvgYds/GTDTD%IntInt%Lng20+40+SckSckYRate
    20131135522463.132.326217.4238.3195.4123.4673281913289.2
    20121543425558.828.930337202.2194.4143.260T3853825081.3
    If you trend both of these years out to a full 16 game season you get an even better picture of Jay's improvement under Marc Trestman's coaching:

    Statistics are trended to a 16-game season for both years (the numbers are rounded off)
    YearGAttCompPctAtt/GYdsAvgYds/GTDTD%IntInt%Lng20+40+SckSckYRate
    20131651632663.132.338127.4238285.4173.46747122819289.2
    20121646327258.828.932357202204.4153.260T4154126781.3
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2014
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  5. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Good work, I don't really know that you can put anything into this b/c the teams you play take a big part in how you perform. But the biggest thing here is how many turn overs he has, in today's NFL you cannot turn the ball over this often(not even including fubmles) b/c of how easy it is to score now. This is the key area that needs to change if the Bears are going to make it to, and win a SB w/him at QB.

    You cannot be at or near .500 and expect to go far. And you see that it's not all on the Sacks/Pressures, this is just something he does b/c of how long he holds the ball; and that is b/c of how reliant he is on his arm and throwing to someone open, instead of throwing them open.

    Unfortunately he's more like Ryan(nothing special) and BBR(now nothing special) then he is the others on that list; he's going to need to take a big leap forward this year to drop the int's and get the ball out quicker.
  6. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Yeah, and I want to point out here that I wasn't trying to be pro or con with Jay. Mostly, I just wanted to try and understand where he was in relation to the better QB's in the league. I wanted to be more objective rather than trusting my memory of last year, regarding Jay.

    Here are some thoughts that jumped out to me personally after looking over the statistical data:

    1. If Jay can stay healthy for an entire season, his stats would be very decent. Partial seasons hurt his overall stats.

    2. He has improved significantly in this first season with Trestman, but he definitely needs to build on this and take yet another positive step (protecting the ball better, better pocket presence) this coming season.

    3. He is listening to Trestman. Clearly, he has improved some very rough areas of his game in his first season with Trestman. Some of that is due to better talent on offense, but some of that is due to Cutler improvement too.

    4. On a side note, I don't think we need Jay to be a top-tier QB to win a Super Bowl. He needs to improve. But with a better defense, and all of the improvements on offense since Emery/Trestman arrived, all we need from Jay is to take one more step in improving (and staying healthy) to have everything we need at QB to win a Super Bowl here in Chicago.
  7. a_miljan

    a_miljan Veteran

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    Well these stats are a downer. Im an optimist, but looks like he really is who we think he is, a God given talent with a mental flaw, and he had all the weapons last year. That was the last season I give him a pass, promise!
  8. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Nope, last 2 years SB appearances prove you don't need a Manning or Brady or Brees, etc anymore, the NFL has gotten to the point where the top tier NFL qb's has been lessened b/c of how the rules now so greatly favor the qb and wr play. 10-15 years ago Wilson, Kaep and Flacco likely never see a SB, but now the league has lowered the offensive bar so low that your teir 2 and 3 qb's have a shot to take their teams to the big dance.
  9. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Been saying it for years, while the OL and lack of WR's and even the OC's were PART of the problem; so was Jay.

    People can get mad that he's looked at as around the 17th best, but the last 2-3 years I've said he was a 10-15 or so, and now you have some young guns starting to pass him buy.
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  10. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    It will be interesting to see if he will build on the improvement he showed from 2012 (Lovie era) to 2013 (his first year in a Trestman offense). If he can take another step in the right direction, and see a similar level of improvement (a big "if" but it is certainly possible) then he'd be closer to a top-tier QB. Look at these stats.

    If we take the 16 game adjusted stats and used the same statistical improvement from 2012 to 2013 - and used that to project 2014 numbers, here is what Jay would have:

    Projecting 2014 stats based upon 2012-13 improvement
    YearGAttCompPctYdsTDRate
    2014165753906744923997.8
    20131651632663.138122889.2
    20121646327258.832352081.3
    Granted, this is not saying Jay will do this. Not at all. It's just something to consider.



    Let's take it a step further. Using the above projection for 2014, here is where Jay would stand with those same QB's we compared him with earlier:

    Jay's stats as projected in the table above, compared with some of the better QB's in the NFL last season.
     CutlerA. RodgersD. BreesTom BradyP. RiversR. WilsonB. Roethlisberger C. KaepernickR. WilsonM. RyanN. FolesP. Manning
    Passing Yards4492.04508.45162.04343.04478.03357.04261.03197.03357.04515.03558.25477.0
    TD's39.030.239.025.032.026.028.021.026.026.033.255.0
    Completion %67.066.668.660.569.563.164.258.463.167.464.068.3
    QB Rating97.8104.9104.787.3105.5101.292.091.6101.289.6119.2115.1
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2014
  11. a_miljan

    a_miljan Veteran

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    Excel suits you JABF!
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  12. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    There are two ways to look at the Cutler data. You can look at pre-Trestman data. Then you can look at the stats that show what he's done in Trestman's offense. It's just a wild guess as to what he'll do with more experience in Trestman's offense. He definitely has a head coach who is gifted at developing QB's. And Jay won't have to go through his annual change in offensive coordinators. He won't have to go through the annual change in offensive schemes either. Continuity is a QB's best friend sometimes.
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  13. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Absolutely true. What we need is a top tier defense and for Cutler to reduce his turnovers although I will say that some are not his doing. There really should be a stat kept where when a receiver bobbles a catch into a defenders hands or blows a catch in some other fashion that he should have had and that results in a pick they start charging that guy with the pick and not the QB. QBs often get too much blame for it.

    The offense is what will get us to the Super Bowl so Jay needs to begin producing 30 point plus games with his offense and take some of the pressure off the defense but in the end it's gonna be up to the defense to be the guys who are the difference makers. They can't beat you if they can't outscore you. Time to regain some Bears pride.
  14. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I'm just gonna leave it this way. In over 50 years we had just one other QB who was gritty enough and talented enough to win a championship. One in 50 f'n years!!!! Jay Cutler is by far the best QB we've seen in Chicago in all of those 50 years including Mac who was a gutsy leader but not even on the same planet with Cutler as far as raw talent goes.

    We just signed him to a 7 year deal that assures he'll be for no less than three year of the seven so maybe it's about time for the hater's and disbelievers to just suck it up and learn to live with it. He either will or he won't win a championship but for the next three years he's gonna be the guy out there calling signals and trying to, so get used to it.

    Just look at like it's a weekend long blind date and you hope she (or he) gets better looking and funnier as the days pass because you're stuck with it 'til Monday. So smile and relax for now. Get drunk if you have to but for Christ sake stop bitching about it. It's not gonna change!
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  15. a_miljan

    a_miljan Veteran

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    But bitchin' is one of the perks of being a fan!?!
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  16. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Much like Stocks a teams past performance has nothing to do w/it's future performance. Under previous leaderships the team failed to find a qb, under this group I don't know that it would be a problem.

    3-6 years from now we'll find out.
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