Cutler's 2013 stats if trended for a full 16-game season.

Discussion in 'Front Page News' started by JustAnotherBearsFan99, Jul 7, 2014.

  1. JustAnotherBearsFan99

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    I was curious how Jay's stats would have trended out for a full 16-game regular season. I was also curious how these stats would have compared with some of the better NFL quarterbacks. I thought some others here might be interested in how it trended out, so I'm posting the data below. Any QB's that had fewer than 16 games, I also trended their stats out for a full 16-game season. Then, since I was doing this for other QB's, I went ahead and trended out Josh McCown's stats for a full 16-game season also.

    [​IMG]
    Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall (Getty Images)
    One thought that I had when I ran these numbers is that Jay had (arguably) some of the best offensive weapons in the NFL supporting him this past year, along with one of the better offensive minded head coaches. Jay had two Pro Bowl receivers, along with M.Bennett, a really solid TE & on top of that he had one of the best receiving RB's in the entire NFL (Forte made some unbelievable catches this past season.....as he always does each year). So Jay was surrounded by top-level NFL talent, including a good offensive line (and the OL started all 16 games with the same 5 guys).

    I'm curious how others view this data. What's your reaction to the numbers trended for a full season?

    The below data is from nfl.com and trended for a full 16-game regular season:

    [xtable=skin1|border:1|cellpadding:1|cellspacing:1|fleft|800x@]
    {tbody}
    {tr}
    {td=left|@x17} {/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}Cutler{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}P. Manning{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}D. Brees{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}A. Rodgers{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}Tom Brady{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}P. Rivers{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}Josh McCown{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}B. Roethlisberger {/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}R. Wilson{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}M. Ryan{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}N. Foles{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}C. Kaepernick{/td}
    {/tr}
    {tr}
    {td=left|@x17}Passing Yards{/td}
    {td=center}3812.4{/td}
    {td=center}5477.0{/td}
    {td=center}5162.0{/td}
    {td=center}4508.4{/td}
    {td=center}4343.0{/td}
    {td=center}4478.0{/td}
    {td=center}3658.0{/td}
    {td=center}4261.0{/td}
    {td=center}3357.0{/td}
    {td=center}4515.0{/td}
    {td=center}3558.2{/td}
    {td=center}3197.0{/td}
    {/tr}
    {tr}
    {td=left|bcolor:#ccffcc|@x17}TD's{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}27.6{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}55.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}39.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}30.2{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}25.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}32.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}26.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}28.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}26.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}26.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}33.2{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}21.0{/td}
    {/tr}
    {tr}
    {td=left|@x17}Interceptions{/td}
    {td=center}17.5{/td}
    {td=center}10.0{/td}
    {td=center}12.0{/td}
    {td=center}10.7{/td}
    {td=center}11.0{/td}
    {td=center}11.0{/td}
    {td=center}2.0{/td}
    {td=center}14.0{/td}
    {td=center}9.0{/td}
    {td=center}17.0{/td}
    {td=center}2.5{/td}
    {td=center}8.0{/td}
    {/tr}
    {tr}
    {td=left|bcolor:#ccffcc|@x17}Fumbles{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}7.3{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}10.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}6.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}7.1{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}9.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}3.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}6.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}9.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}10.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}5.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}4.9{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}6.0{/td}
    {/tr}
    {tr}
    {td=left|@x17}Completion %{/td}
    {td=center}63.1{/td}
    {td=center}68.3{/td}
    {td=center}68.6{/td}
    {td=center}66.6{/td}
    {td=center}60.5{/td}
    {td=center}69.5{/td}
    {td=center}66.5{/td}
    {td=center}64.2{/td}
    {td=center}63.1{/td}
    {td=center}67.4{/td}
    {td=center}64.0{/td}
    {td=center}58.4{/td}
    {/tr}
    {tr}
    {td=left|bcolor:#ccffcc|@x17}QB Rating{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}89.2{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}115.1{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}104.7{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}104.9{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}87.3{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}105.5{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}109.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}92.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}101.2{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}89.6{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}119.2{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}91.6{/td}
    {/tr}
    {/tbody}
    [/xtable]
     
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  2. soulman

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    What hurts Jay and always has is the number of picks he throws. I suspect those will lessen a bit in year two of him running the same offense but he's never gonna get away from them altogether. Guys like him never do.

    The only other QB on this list that could even come close to comparing with Cutler as more of a "gunslinger" type is Brees and much like Rodgers and Brady he's been running that same offense for quite a while now and under a HC who IMHO is every bit the guru that Trestman is.

    What helps McCown's rating a lot is his lack of picks which elevates his QBR but in the other categories he and Cutler are virtually neck and neck. If this tells us anything it may be that using the term "QB friendly" to describe Trestman's offense is a perfect description and that even a QB of modest talent can do well in it.

    This is a great work up 99. Thanks for doing this.

    :guinness:
     
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  3. JustAnotherBearsFan99

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    One thing that jumped out at me from those stats is Brady's year. He had a very tough season (for him). The Pats had serious injury woes like we did, and it's interesting to note that even a solid vet QB like Brady struggles to overcome a season where the team is pounded with key injuries.

    I'm really hoping we have a better season injury-wise. And everything-else-wise too :-)
     
  4. JustAnotherBearsFan99

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    This morning I made a comparison of Jay's stats that compared his improvement from 2012 to 2013. The improvement was significant:

    [xtable=skin1|border:2|cellpadding:2|cellspacing:2|fleft|600x@]
    {caption}Statistics are from NFL.com{/caption}
    {tbody}
    {tr}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00|@x21}Year{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}G{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}Att{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}Comp{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}Pct{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}Att/G{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}Yds{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}Avg{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}Yds/G{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}TD{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}TD%{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}Int{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}Int%{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}Lng{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}20+{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}40+{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}Sck{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}SckY{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}Rate{/td}
    {/tr}
    {tr}
    {td=center|@x22}2013{/td}
    {td=center}11{/td}
    {td=center}355{/td}
    {td=center}224{/td}
    {td=center}63.1{/td}
    {td=center}32.3{/td}
    {td=center}2621{/td}
    {td=center}7.4{/td}
    {td=center}238.3{/td}
    {td=center}19{/td}
    {td=center}5.4{/td}
    {td=center}12{/td}
    {td=center}3.4{/td}
    {td=center}67{/td}
    {td=center}32{/td}
    {td=center}8{/td}
    {td=center}19{/td}
    {td=center}132{/td}
    {td=center}89.2{/td}
    {/tr}
    {tr}
    {td=center|@x20}2012{/td}
    {td=center}15{/td}
    {td=center}434{/td}
    {td=center}255{/td}
    {td=center}58.8{/td}
    {td=center}28.9{/td}
    {td=center}3033{/td}
    {td=center}7{/td}
    {td=center}202.2{/td}
    {td=center}19{/td}
    {td=center}4.4{/td}
    {td=center}14{/td}
    {td=center}3.2{/td}
    {td=center}60T{/td}
    {td=center}38{/td}
    {td=center}5{/td}
    {td=center}38{/td}
    {td=center}250{/td}
    {td=center}81.3{/td}
    {/tr}
    {/tbody}
    [/xtable]
    If you trend both of these years out to a full 16 game season you get an even better picture of Jay's improvement under Marc Trestman's coaching:

    [xtable=skin1|border:2|cellpadding:2|cellspacing:2|fleft|600x@]
    {caption}Statistics are trended to a 16-game season for both years (the numbers are rounded off){/caption}
    {tbody}
    {tr}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc|@x21}Year{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}G{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}Att{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}Comp{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}Pct{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}Att/G{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}Yds{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}Avg{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}Yds/G{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}TD{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}TD%{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}Int{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}Int%{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}Lng{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}20+{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}40+{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}Sck{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}SckY{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}Rate{/td}
    {/tr}
    {tr}
    {td=center|@x21}2013{/td}
    {td=center}16{/td}
    {td=center}516{/td}
    {td=center}326{/td}
    {td=center}63.1{/td}
    {td=center}32.3{/td}
    {td=center}3812{/td}
    {td=center}7.4{/td}
    {td=center}238{/td}
    {td=center}28{/td}
    {td=center}5.4{/td}
    {td=center}17{/td}
    {td=center}3.4{/td}
    {td=center}67{/td}
    {td=center}47{/td}
    {td=center}12{/td}
    {td=center}28{/td}
    {td=center}192{/td}
    {td=center}89.2{/td}
    {/tr}
    {tr}
    {td=center|@x21}2012{/td}
    {td=center}16{/td}
    {td=center}463{/td}
    {td=center}272{/td}
    {td=center}58.8{/td}
    {td=center}28.9{/td}
    {td=center}3235{/td}
    {td=center}7{/td}
    {td=center}202{/td}
    {td=center}20{/td}
    {td=center}4.4{/td}
    {td=center}15{/td}
    {td=center}3.2{/td}
    {td=center}60T{/td}
    {td=center}41{/td}
    {td=center}5{/td}
    {td=center}41{/td}
    {td=center}267{/td}
    {td=center}81.3{/td}
    {/tr}
    {/tbody}
    [/xtable]
     
    #4 JustAnotherBearsFan99, Jul 8, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2014
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  5. riczaj01

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    Good work, I don't really know that you can put anything into this b/c the teams you play take a big part in how you perform. But the biggest thing here is how many turn overs he has, in today's NFL you cannot turn the ball over this often(not even including fubmles) b/c of how easy it is to score now. This is the key area that needs to change if the Bears are going to make it to, and win a SB w/him at QB.

    You cannot be at or near .500 and expect to go far. And you see that it's not all on the Sacks/Pressures, this is just something he does b/c of how long he holds the ball; and that is b/c of how reliant he is on his arm and throwing to someone open, instead of throwing them open.

    Unfortunately he's more like Ryan(nothing special) and BBR(now nothing special) then he is the others on that list; he's going to need to take a big leap forward this year to drop the int's and get the ball out quicker.
     
  6. JustAnotherBearsFan99

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    Yeah, and I want to point out here that I wasn't trying to be pro or con with Jay. Mostly, I just wanted to try and understand where he was in relation to the better QB's in the league. I wanted to be more objective rather than trusting my memory of last year, regarding Jay.

    Here are some thoughts that jumped out to me personally after looking over the statistical data:

    1. If Jay can stay healthy for an entire season, his stats would be very decent. Partial seasons hurt his overall stats.

    2. He has improved significantly in this first season with Trestman, but he definitely needs to build on this and take yet another positive step (protecting the ball better, better pocket presence) this coming season.

    3. He is listening to Trestman. Clearly, he has improved some very rough areas of his game in his first season with Trestman. Some of that is due to better talent on offense, but some of that is due to Cutler improvement too.

    4. On a side note, I don't think we need Jay to be a top-tier QB to win a Super Bowl. He needs to improve. But with a better defense, and all of the improvements on offense since Emery/Trestman arrived, all we need from Jay is to take one more step in improving (and staying healthy) to have everything we need at QB to win a Super Bowl here in Chicago.
     
  7. a_miljan

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    Well these stats are a downer. Im an optimist, but looks like he really is who we think he is, a God given talent with a mental flaw, and he had all the weapons last year. That was the last season I give him a pass, promise!
     
  8. riczaj01

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    Nope, last 2 years SB appearances prove you don't need a Manning or Brady or Brees, etc anymore, the NFL has gotten to the point where the top tier NFL qb's has been lessened b/c of how the rules now so greatly favor the qb and wr play. 10-15 years ago Wilson, Kaep and Flacco likely never see a SB, but now the league has lowered the offensive bar so low that your teir 2 and 3 qb's have a shot to take their teams to the big dance.
     
  9. riczaj01

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    Been saying it for years, while the OL and lack of WR's and even the OC's were PART of the problem; so was Jay.

    People can get mad that he's looked at as around the 17th best, but the last 2-3 years I've said he was a 10-15 or so, and now you have some young guns starting to pass him buy.
     
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  10. JustAnotherBearsFan99

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    It will be interesting to see if he will build on the improvement he showed from 2012 (Lovie era) to 2013 (his first year in a Trestman offense). If he can take another step in the right direction, and see a similar level of improvement (a big "if" but it is certainly possible) then he'd be closer to a top-tier QB. Look at these stats.

    If we take the 16 game adjusted stats and used the same statistical improvement from 2012 to 2013 - and used that to project 2014 numbers, here is what Jay would have:

    [xtable=skin1|border:2|cellpadding:2|cellspacing:2|fleft|500x@]
    {caption}Projecting 2014 stats based upon 2012-13 improvement{/caption}
    {tbody}
    {tr}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc|@x21}Year{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}G{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}Att{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}Comp{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}Pct{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}Yds{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}TD{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}Rate{/td}
    {/tr}
    {tr}
    {td=center|@x21}2014{/td}
    {td=center}16{/td}
    {td=center}575{/td}
    {td=center}390{/td}
    {td=center}67{/td}
    {td=center}4492{/td}
    {td=center}39{/td}
    {td=center}97.8{/td}
    {/tr}
    {tr}
    {td=center|@x21}2013{/td}
    {td=center}16{/td}
    {td=center}516{/td}
    {td=center}326{/td}
    {td=center}63.1{/td}
    {td=center}3812{/td}
    {td=center}28{/td}
    {td=center}89.2{/td}
    {/tr}
    {tr}
    {td=center|@x21}2012{/td}
    {td=center}16{/td}
    {td=center}463{/td}
    {td=center}272{/td}
    {td=center}58.8{/td}
    {td=center}3235{/td}
    {td=center}20{/td}
    {td=center}81.3{/td}
    {/tr}
    {/tbody}
    [/xtable]
    Granted, this is not saying Jay will do this. Not at all. It's just something to consider.



    Let's take it a step further. Using the above projection for 2014, here is where Jay would stand with those same QB's we compared him with earlier:

    [xtable=skin1|border:2|cellpadding:2|cellspacing:2|fleft|800x@]
    {caption}Jay's stats as projected in the table above, compared with some of the better QB's in the NFL last season.{/caption}
    {tbody}
    {tr}
    {td=left|@x20} {/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}Cutler{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}A. Rodgers{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}D. Brees{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}Tom Brady{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}P. Rivers{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}R. Wilson{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}B. Roethlisberger {/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}C. Kaepernick{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}R. Wilson{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}M. Ryan{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}N. Foles{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ffff00}P. Manning{/td}
    {/tr}
    {tr}
    {td=left|@x20}Passing Yards{/td}
    {td=center}4492.0{/td}
    {td=center}4508.4{/td}
    {td=center}5162.0{/td}
    {td=center}4343.0{/td}
    {td=center}4478.0{/td}
    {td=center}3357.0{/td}
    {td=center}4261.0{/td}
    {td=center}3197.0{/td}
    {td=center}3357.0{/td}
    {td=center}4515.0{/td}
    {td=center}3558.2{/td}
    {td=center}5477.0{/td}
    {/tr}
    {tr}
    {td=left|bcolor:#ccffcc|@x20}TD's{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}39.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}30.2{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}39.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}25.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}32.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}26.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}28.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}21.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}26.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}26.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}33.2{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}55.0{/td}
    {/tr}
    {tr}
    {td=left|@x20}Completion %{/td}
    {td=center}67.0{/td}
    {td=center}66.6{/td}
    {td=center}68.6{/td}
    {td=center}60.5{/td}
    {td=center}69.5{/td}
    {td=center}63.1{/td}
    {td=center}64.2{/td}
    {td=center}58.4{/td}
    {td=center}63.1{/td}
    {td=center}67.4{/td}
    {td=center}64.0{/td}
    {td=center}68.3{/td}
    {/tr}
    {tr}
    {td=left|bcolor:#ccffcc|@x20}QB Rating{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}97.8{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}104.9{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}104.7{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}87.3{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}105.5{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}101.2{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}92.0{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}91.6{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}101.2{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}89.6{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}119.2{/td}
    {td=center|bcolor:#ccffcc}115.1{/td}
    {/tr}
    {/tbody}
    [/xtable]
     
    #10 JustAnotherBearsFan99, Jul 8, 2014
    Last edited: Jul 8, 2014

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