ESPN Bears preview

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by riczaj01, Aug 31, 2014.

  1. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    http://espn.go.com/espn/feature/sto...-game-game-predictions-more-every-team#!bears
    If defense does its share, look out

    by Michael C. Wright | ESPN.com
    SECRET SUPERSTAR

    OG Kyle Long

    [​IMG]
    Long's -1.7 Pro Football Focus grade was 43rd out of 81 guards. He showed promise as a rookie, allowing a sack every 315 snaps, but was 28th in pass-blocking efficiency. Expect a more consistent Year 2.
    -- Sam Monson

    best & worst

    Will win 11 if the D-line earns its pay and the pass game attacks D's at all depths.
    Will win 8 if a weak safety corps keeps the defense from improving and injuries expose a lack of depth at skill positions.
    -- Field Yates

    GAME-BY-GAME PREDICTIONS

    By Advanced Football Analytics
    Bears' Projected Record

    9-7

    [​IMG]WIN [​IMG]LOSS
    • Sept. 7 vs. BUF 34-10
    • Sept. 14 @ SF 30-14
    • Sept. 22 @ NYJ 16-7
    • Sept. 28 vs. GB 34-20
    • Oct. 5 @ CAR 30-24
    • Oct. 12 @ ATL 27-14
    • Oct. 19 vs. MIA 31-7
    • Oct. 26 @ NE 33-10
    • Nov. 9 @ GB 31-10
    • Nov. 16 vs. MIN 31-23
    • Nov. 23 vs. TB 23-16
    • Nov. 27 @ DET 45-21
    • Dec. 4 vs. DAL 35-20
    • Dec. 15 vs. NO 31-20
    • Dec. 21 vs. DET 41-7
    • Dec. 28 @ MIN 27-21

    Vegas Vibe

    By LVH SuperBook
    Super Bowl Odds

    20-1
    Over/Under Wins

    8.5

    Equal Opportunity for All

    Each week during Marc Trestman's first season as coach, the Bears' defense took half the typical number of reps. "Last season was all about the offense," one team source said. It showed. The offense improved from 28th overall to eighth, while a banged-up D plummeted from fifth to 30th. But this training camp, the D-line got hands-on training from a martial arts expert, and the overall reps were decidedly even. Chicago even splurged on three D-linemen, including Jared Allen, in free agency. Several defenders described the difference in the front four as "night and day." Good thing: After giving up 29.9 points per game (tied for 30th), this unit needed a wake-up call.
    Best-Kept Secret

    The Bears overhauled the defense to throw out the penetration element previously featured in the system. Now, the defensive linemen will play 1½ gaps with a premium placed on the front four using their hands to stack offensive linemen and shed once the ball carrier is found. By stacking linemen, the defensive linemen keep blockers off the linebackers, which in turn frees the linebackers to run and make plays. To assist in transforming the defensive linemen into technicians with their hands, the club brought in martial arts expert Joe Kim to teach the art of hand fighting.
    Worst-kept secret

    At least one assistant has privately said that if Jay Cutler misses time, this team is done. But that could probably be said about any team losing its starting quarterback for any long stretch. What makes Chicago's situation a little more interesting is the fact that Cutler hasn't finished an entire 16-game regular season since 2009. Backup Jimmy Clausen has played fairly well throughout the preseason, but he's 1-9 as a starter in his career.
    QB Confidential

    As told to NFL Nation, an active player gives his assessment of QB Jay Cutler:
    "You have to be able to get pressure on him. He's jittery in the pocket. You can change coverages and things like that, but he's quick enough to see it and dump the ball off to his backs. You have to get pressure on him, and you have to keep hitting him to keep him from beating you. You definitely have to keep his awareness in the pocket. Keep people coming at him. If you let him sit in the pocket, he'll crush you. I don't care what coverage you're in. He's a playmaker now."
    Make-or-break stretch

    The first half of this team's schedule fits that description, considering the Bears play five of their first seven outings on the road against the 49ers, Jets, Panthers, Falcons and Patriots. If the Bears go into their Nov. 2 bye relatively healthy with a record of at least .500, the rest of the schedule sets up nicely, with just three road games remaining and the rest set for the frigid winter conditions at Soldier Field, a definite home-field advantage during the latter portion of the season.
    Wright's prediction

    I disagree strongly with Advanced Football Analytics' nine-win prediction because this year's edition of the Bears isn't a rebuilding project. They're built to win now, which is why the club overhauled the X's and O's of the scheme with proven veterans and other players set to hit the sweet spot of their careers. I'm expecting at least 10 wins -- 11 or 12 if everything falls right for the Bears.
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  2. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    A need for some much needed balance of perspective and a bit of postivity.
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  3. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    best & worst
    Will win 11 if the D-line earns its pay and the pass game attacks D's at all depths.
    Will win 8 if a weak safety corps keeps the defense from improving and injuries expose a lack of depth at skill positions.
    -- Field Yates
    This sounds about right, S was not an issue that Emery addressed this offseason outside of a mid round pick and I still don't understand why. Conte is at best average and at worst awful, Mundy and MD Jennings were in the same class. McCray has been a nice surprise but I'm not sure he's still much better then the others. I know you have to pick your battles, and I know you needed CB/DL help, but damn come on you don't need to get the best FA S, but you didn't have to get the bottom of the barrell either did you?
    Still if the Front 4 can do their job then hopefully they can be masked like 2 years ago.

    Best-Kept Secret
    The Bears overhauled the defense to throw out the penetration element previously featured in the system. Now, the defensive linemen will play 1½ gaps with a premium placed on the front four using their hands to stack offensive linemen and shed once the ball carrier is found. By stacking linemen, the defensive linemen keep blockers off the linebackers, which in turn frees the linebackers to run and make plays. To assist in transforming the defensive linemen into technicians with their hands, the club brought in martial arts expert Joe Kim to teach the art of hand fighting.
    And this is nothing that you saw in PS, the Bears were not showing what they plan on doing come the reg season, yet posters and writers are talking about how the D is going to look as bad as last year?!?!? Maybe not working on your new system is a bad idea, maybe it's fine, lets wait to see what happens when the games are played for real okay?
    Worst-kept secret
    At least one assistant has privately said that if Jay Cutler misses time, this team is done. But that could probably be said about any team losing its starting quarterback for any long stretch. What makes Chicago's situation a little more interesting is the fact that Cutler hasn't finished an entire 16-game regular season since 2009. Backup Jimmy Clausen has played fairly well throughout the preseason, but he's 1-9 as a starter in his career.
    QB Confidential
    As told to NFL Nation, an active player gives his assessment of QB Jay Cutler:
    "You have to be able to get pressure on him. He's jittery in the pocket. You can change coverages and things like that, but he's quick enough to see it and dump the ball off to his backs. You have to get pressure on him, and you have to keep hitting him to keep him from beating you. You definitely have to keep his awareness in the pocket. Keep people coming at him. If you let him sit in the pocket, he'll crush you. I don't care what coverage you're in. He's a playmaker now."
    I'll put these together, next to NO team will have success if their QB misses much time, last year w/McCown was a fluke, and people will see it this year while he's in TB. But Clausen will be fine, he's got a nice arm and his experience shows, while Im not a fan of vet backups, he's at least young enough to still be able to realize his potential so he at least has that going for him.
    As for the Cutler thing, Sounds like a very similar thing to Rex, rattle him early and he's done for the game. It does sound like this player at least sees that he's improved over the last 2 years so here's to hoping he continues.


    Wright's prediction
    I disagree strongly with Advanced Football Analytics' nine-win prediction because this year's edition of the Bears isn't a rebuilding project. They're built to win now, which is why the club overhauled the X's and O's of the scheme with proven veterans and other players set to hit the sweet spot of their careers. I'm expecting at least 10 wins -- 11 or 12 if everything falls right for the Bears.
    agree w/this 100%
  4. B-ell-y-iot

    B-ell-y-iot Veteran SuperFan

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    If the Bear's win/loss record is 9-7 and we beat the Pack twice, we're a lock in the NFCN. I'll take that.

    I think the other piece to keep in perspective about the NFC is the strength of the NFCW which works against those teams. Couple that with the fact that the NFCW goes up against the AFCW this year and that could mean only one playoff team from the NFCW, especially with some of the issues the Niners are facing right now.

    If the Bears win in SF in wk 2 I think San Fran. has a hard time cobbling together more than 9 wins and that would give the Bears the head to head win needed to advance as a wild card in the event we split wins with the Packers.

    The thing that stands out to me in listening to and reading all the sports writers predictions for the Bears is that few (if any), even the most pessimistic, have them losing more than 8 games and the consensus seems to be 9-7. That in itself is a positive sign to me.
    Last edited: Aug 31, 2014
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  5. BelieveInMonsters

    BelieveInMonsters Veteran

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    I have the Bears at 11-5 and I'm sticking to it.

    There's no way we lose to Tampa Bay and Dallas at home. The other losses are possible.
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  6. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    I agree BiM, but I also don't see the Bears sweeping GB or beating Atl in Atl. So it kind of equals out. I think that NO's game is the real kicker, if the weather is bad enough it might work in the Bears favor.
  7. BradMustersGhost

    BradMustersGhost Veteran

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    NO WAY do we lose to the freakin' BUCS at home. I also don't think we lose to Dallas. We lose twice to the Pack, to the Saints, to the Pats, to the Lions in Detroit, and to the Niners. We beat EVERYONE else. 10-6, babycakes. Wright is crazy if he sees us losing to mediocre teams like Tampa and Dallas (AT HOME, no less), and beating Green Bay twice. Seems to me that somebody broke into Soulman's secret stash of wacky weed!!!!
  8. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    It's not Wrights predictions it's Advanced Football Analytics predictions. The final paragraph is him saying he disagrees w/them and he sees a 10-11 win team, barring injury.
  9. BradMustersGhost

    BradMustersGhost Veteran

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    whoops, tee-hee....BUSTED. I just glanced over the post, since I was busy eating a cheesesteak. tee-hee!
  10. BradMustersGhost

    BradMustersGhost Veteran

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    That was actually a pretty interesting read, Ric. Good find!
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  11. Xa0sG0rilla

    Xa0sG0rilla Veteran

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    AFA has the Bears beating the Fackers not once but twice! I can live with 9-7 if that happens...
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  12. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Ya people seem to think our D is a sieve but somehow think GB's D is going to be world beaters. If you are going straight off balance, the team to worry about is Det who has a solid O and a D very much built like the Bears(weak back 7) but their front 4 is lights out and their O is really solid also. For them it will be up to their new coach and if he can get that team to settle down.
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  13. butkus3595

    butkus3595 Pro-Bowler

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    I see us beating Tampa and Dallas...ATL could be interesting...but I agree with how they see the games going aside from what i mentioned above.
  14. DavidL

    DavidL Pro-Bowler

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    I can't see us making the playoffs if we lose that Sept. home game against the Packers. It's not just the schedule, it's also the psychology. Beating them early in the season would have a huge mental effect on the team, but so would getting blown out on your own field. His prediction that we will beat the Packers 31-10 at Green Bay is insane, especially the "10" number with our defense.

    I expect the Packers will lose to Seattle on Thursday. If they beat the Seahawks in Seattle, forget it. Then they have to play the Lions in Detroit. That should be a shootout, and they could lose. If so, they come to Chicago with a 1-2 record, facing the possibility of dropping to 1-3 after 4 games. That's a fun thought to contemplate, isn't it?

    BTW, I see that Peppers is down to 260 pounds! Has anybody seen him play in preseason?
    Last edited: Sep 1, 2014

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