Grizz's Mock

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by Grizzblue, Mar 12, 2014.

  1. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Just in case you might want to add one more D. Dennard. If Dix and Donald are gone he may well be the BPA at that spot. I don't really want a CB there but I really don't want Nix or Hageman a whole lot more. Maybe this where a trade takes place.
  2. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    Hill was arrested for that sexual assault but someone else got convicted of a lesser charge or something weird like that. Not really sure on the full story. And he got in a bar fight and charged with assault. He has some character issues but some of this can be attributed to a college kid being an idiot on a campus. Emery would have to do his interviews and his homework but if he thought it wasn't going to be a issue I trust him. If he fell due to this it would be a likely Emery pick because he does seem to pull the trigger on behavior issue guys.

    I also would usually like a big 10 guy over a Uconn guy due to the level of competition. In the 4th I don't think Bullough will be there though for that reason. If both are on the board then it would be a tough decision. Smallwood seems like a lower floor higher ceiling than Bullough but hes the safer pick. Guess its preference there.
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  3. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Fair enough. Might be nice if Hill feel like a lead balloon and we could pick him up like we got Wilson. Maybe not that far down but third day would be nice.
  4. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    Yeah, he's currently mocked in most as the num 2 HB taken after Clyde. Usually around pick 37-60 so its very possible. Also, GB got Lacey later than that who was clearly an even more dominant college back. I think some guys may leapfrog him due to his off the field issues and at 230 lbs and 4.5 speed he may not fit into roles. Don't get me wrong, 4.5 isn't slow and combine that with his big frame he will be a terror running wild in a secondary, but there are coaches like chip kelly that would likely want a 190 lb 4.3 speed guy.

    I think he's the best back in the draft and has enormous potential because he is big, durable, has a 2nd gear that some "power backs" don't. Can block, catch, good one cut runner and can (and will, watch some highlights) go right through you. Love the idea of bringing him into our system, with our line and no pressure to be "the guy" right now. Let the leadership in the locker room straighten out any potential behavior issues. Backs like this I really like, it's a great counter to the new style of tweener guys that teams love putting on the edge. His size and power combined with speed and one cut ability can exploit the defenses. It may not be a popular idea, but if hes there in the 2nd I can't think of anyone realistically I would rather take. (barring someone falling from the middle of the 1st round)


    I'd love to get him later as well. C'mon sould have faith he still has a few weeks to do something REALLY stupid to drop him some more. Maybe ninja phil will stage something so we can get him in the 4th.
  5. lklrlolnlilklsox

    lklrlolnlilklsox Position Coach

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    I'd go for Pryor immediately in that scenario, but I'm getting more bullish on him by the day. Unlike most, I have no problem with his value at 14.
  6. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Saw another mock with him on it at #14 even with Donald still on the board. I'd buy Dix over Donald as a possibility but Pryor? Not so much. I still think the kid will have to tone down his hitting in the NFL or convert to SS. In the old days sticking him at the back end and letting lay wood on guys ala John Lynch would have made me drool (WRs to probably, but after they got smacked) but my worry is that he'll become another Meriweather who can only play one way.

    Let's assume Dix and Donald are gone and I think we agree that Gilbert will never make it past ten. So if Dennard and Pryor are there, and a DB is what then outranks a DT, which one do you take? You've already said you don't have a problem with Pryor's value at #14 so we're not trading down here we're taking that best DB of the two.
  7. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Can't deny I'd like to see us with a power back to compliment Forte. I just don't know if we'd jump on one that high unless it got down to there being a huge gap between him and the next guy on Phil's board. If that was the case I could easily see it. If he's gonna pull a surprise or two I think it's far more likely to happen in he 2nd round than the first.

    We already know who they "players" are in one. At #14 he'll have his pick of a top guy at either DT, CB, or Safety depending in how it falls into place before we pick. What we don't know is who he gets and how that'll drive his decisions in the second round. Say he gets Donald and Ward is gone and he doesn't like taking any of the CBs or Safeties still on the board. Yeah, he might decide to take a kid like Hill knowing that Forte is at his peak but historically may soon be past it.

    While the immediate need isn't as strong CB, MLB, and RB are all positions that could use some youth sitting in the second chair. If they feel he's a guy they can use now and can get past HIS past then maybe he takes him. I'm not foolish enough to believe he'll ignore a top offensive prospect over a second or third tier defensive prospect regardless of his orientation going into the draft. I'd just like to see the first two picks made on guys who can contribute day one and not just on STeams.
  8. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    Yep Soul, thats along the lines of my thinking to mock Hill at 51. I put HB, QB, CB, MLB on the same level of need. At MLB, CB, we have injury risks starting with unproven backups. So this is an obvious need to shore up the depth with quality players. At HB we need a backup because its a common practice now to have your backup RB taking some carries. Lessens the risk of injury to Forte and having a constantly fresh body in there will vastly improve our run game. As for backup QB, well the Hanie thing tells us all we need to know.

    With that said if we get a chance to grab one of the best two RBs in the draft in the 2nd I hope Phil pulls the trigger. Hill can very likely take whatever load off Forte he needs with minimal dropoff. He gives us a change of pace with a different running style that can punish a defense and soften up the box that much more for either him, or Forte to bust off a big one. With our WR corp teams really cant afford to put a safety in the box so an upgrade like would be great value in the 2nd.

    I think your right soul, I'm fully expecting a shock in the 2nd. I think Phil may be SEMI predictable in the first because of the likelihood of Donald, Dix, Pryor, Gilbert, Denard to be there and any of them would be tough to pass up. The 2nd however is probably where Phil will either try to find great value such as Hill or Ward, or will go after "his guy" and take someone nobody expects. We all know he likes to do this so who knows.

    28 days......
  9. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Well 29 if the shockeroo comes in round two right?
  10. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    Yep, got me there LOL. I'm just excited for the draft...as much fun as the speculation, mocks and stuff is I'm ready for some football weekend watching the draft and gives us some new concrete stuff to talk about.
  11. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Take a look at that thread I put up with the 1st round locks. It's just a compilation of the stuff from 7 mock drafts so it's what I'd call "guru" based, but it's worth noting that how when you collect enough data from enough sources the repeatability of at least some of it jumps out at you. Instead of looking at what just one guy or another thinks this at least looks at what they all believe may happen on average plus or minus. It's an interesting piece.

    The fortunes of the top QBs ebb and flow somewhat based on whether Houston takes Clowney as the 1st overall or a QB, and who takes Manziel and Bridgewater and where, but the rest have stayed very steady as far as the top ten or twelve go. If it goes down along these lines it would leave the Bears with Donald, Jernigan, Pryor, Dennard and Fuller all still on the board at #14. Lowering those odds a bit I'd say there's still roughly a 90% + chance 4 of the 5 will be and an 80% + chance 3 of the 5 will be and I'd put Donald and Dennard as the ones most likely to go before #14. Even at that it still leaves one top DT, one top S, and one top CBs left. Not a bad spot to be in if that the worst case scenario.

    I guess that's why I'm saying the surprise is more likely to come in round two like it did with Jeffery. The prospects and the path in the first seems pretty clear to me. Unless somebody like Dix falls I would swear it will be one of the other five.
  12. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    I agree any surprises we will see will be in the 2nd round. Only unexpected picks I can see at 14 is Jernigan, Fuller, Hageman, Nix. If for some reason Mack falls Phil may take him as a much better version of Shea, but I think that would be a situation where we could get a lobsided trade back deal because if he falls out of the top 10 teams are going to be calling. He's a guy that I seriously doubt gets past Atlanta at 7 but hey anything's possible look at Floyd last year. Another way I see Phil shocking us on May 8th is trading back into the first round for a guy like Fuller. Common logic says we need our 7 picks to fill our needs but its Emery we are talking about. What we do know is if he sees a guy he wants he will go after him.

    Then again, this entire board is 0/2 for even mentioning the correct first round pick for Emery thus far so nobody really knows.
  13. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    LOL, oh how true although he's been picking later after the crème de la crème were already gone and Long was a bigger shocker than McClellin but most of thought he might have taken him to eventually replace Urlacher and although unlikely as it seems now that may happen yet.

    But this year that #14 does get him in amongst some of the best at all three spots he needs help or depth at and the players who can take on those parts are fairly well established. To me Hageman and Nix are only in the mix if he somehow goes off his rocker. Neither are a good fit. Hageman is too big of a risk that high and specs out more as a 3-4 DE anyway and Nix is even less of a fit and has both injury and conditioning issues which should knock him way down.

    Fuller is rising into that ball park so either there or a little farther back if his two biggest needs, DT and S aren't worth the players still on the board at #14 might make sense but I still think he's a fall back guy. If I had to bet I'd put Pryor and Donald as the two he's most likely to take and although I'd find it impossible to pass on an inside pass rusher like Donald I'm not calling the shots so who knows. But if forced to do it I'd rank Donald at #1 and Pryor at #2 at the top of his wish list with Fuller a round one fall back and Quarles and Bucannon or Ward as round two guys.
  14. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    I really hope Emery makes it as simple as that. No surprises just get the best 4-3 DT or the 2nd best safety. I'm assuming Dix is gone and my fear is Dix and Donald go 12 and 13 but even if thats the case I think Pryor may be a nice consolation prize. I have always thought that Pryor and Dix are a toss up, Dix having the edge due to playing and having tape in the SEC.
  15. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    Version 4.0, April 17th
    Rd 1 (14) Calvin Pryor. S, Louisville
    I'm putting, and likely keeping Pryor. After all the debate this whole draft process I think Dix is gone and Pryor will be the selection. Huge hitter, and LEGAL hitter at that. Pryor is sometimes mistaken as a 'hammer' one trick pony who will just rack up penalties. False. Pryor can come in day one and likely start and provide run support, turnovers in both forced fumbles and ints, as well as range to get out there and cover NFL WRs. I don't see a talent gap between him and Dix, and even if both were on the board I would be inclined to take Pryor over him. He can man up when needed on TEs and uses his great strength to make up for any size he gives up to bigger players in those matchups. Watch carefully in this video. His big hits almost always come from his shoulder, he does NOT target the head, in fact only time here I see him do that is when the HB lowers his head to contact (by rule, if any penalty is called it is on the offense) Great day one addition and down the road IMO, we can possibly finally get a solid safety we have been searching for since the days of Brown.
    Rd 2 (51) Keith McGill. CB, Utah
    Big corner, at 6'3 and has 4.5 speed to go along with it. He has the size we want in order to take over the Megatron and other big WR duty that Tillman currently does. Size is important when looking at CBs this year because Jennings is likely just too small to cover the 6'3 plus guys, and will be susceptible to the jump ball. McGill has shown good ability in both man and zone coverage schemes at Utah, as well as being able to use his big frame to press. McGill has great fluid movements for such a big guy and uses his long body and arms to get in lanes and break up passes that he in all honesty should not be able to get to. Good ball skills when ball is in air, but too often drops should have been picks. He can understudy Tillman and maybe step into a nickle or dime role if needed. Guy has great potential, and that's going to benefit us because (hopefully) he will have a year before he has to step into a major role.
    Rd 3 (82) Kelcy Quarles. DT, South Carolina
    It almost hurts me, as a firm believer that games are won at the line of scrimmage, to wait until the 3rd round to draft a DT. I waited this long because almost all mocks have this guy available in the 3rd. To me, this opens the option of trading back in the 2nd, but we will leave that out for now. Quarles is an absolute steal in the 3rd round, and if we have to move up a bit to get him then so be it. A prototypical 3 tech, he has every bit the amount of potential that Donald has IMO long term. His explosive first step combined with long arms and great core strength is a picture perfect fit for our needs. IMO Quarles will be in day one competition for a starting role as our 3 tech, and can will continue to improve and develop into hopefully his full potential as a force in the middle. He racked up 9 and half sacks last year, can provide quality snaps in our interior rotation. Taking him in the 2nd would not disappoint me, but according to the mocks now, we can get him here. If Emery gets him at 82, then he should be formally charged with robbery.
    Rd 4 (117) Aaron Murray. QB, Georgia
    After Georgia's prod day Murray is a much more appealing option to me. Murray had a phenomenal career at Georgia and set SEC passing records. His knee injury is a big concern but only 5 months removed he went through a full pro day and looked good doing it. This guy is NFL ready and I think would run away in a camp battle with Palmer. His long term potential seemingly is endless, and paired with Trestman he is a legit option for our long term QB. In the mean time, he can provide an insurance policy against Cutler's injury history and hopefully could stop a season from tanking should Cutty go down. As much as we all love McCown, if he could preform as well as he did last year I'm confident that Murray could surpass that with Trestmans help and our onslaught of weapons on offense. Hopefully though, he is just a guy that can learn and develop into either our starter in 4 years or we can get very nice return on our 4th round investment via trade. He throws the deep ball extremely well, and can flat out chuck that thing. Good decision maker and excels in looking off defenders and delivering a perfect strike. Not much of a threat to run or get himself out of a collapsing pocket, but in this case I'll take that tradeoff.
    Rd 5 (156) Jack Tyler. ILB, Virginia Tech
    I had this guy mocked with our very last pick in an previous version, and he's now climbing the draft boards. Started as a 7th rounder back in March has now climbed into that tier 3 group of ILBs. He does not blow you away with any physical or combine numbers, but was a solid player at VT on a good defense. He doesn't do anything particularly well, but doesn't have any glaring weakness either. Quick to diagnose plays he is able to get a jump on it to counter his lack of elite speed. Lose hips lets him turn to set edges or come clean up outside runs as well as drop back in passing lanes. Good leader and locker room guy he can develop and be added into our crop of young LBs that are fighting it out for playing time. Won't see the field unless disaster strikes, we can't fill all our backup needs with day 1 and 2 picks this year but I like what he can do for where we can get him.
    Rd 6 (183) Brock Vereen. S, Minnesota
    Covered him in a few of my other versions, I won't bore anyone by repeating myself. Hes an under the radar high potential guy who is an instant ST contributor so he will likely get a roster spot. Has a great ceiling and may develop nicely into a solid or even good player. We probably need more than one safety and by taking Pryor first we can wait till the tail end to get another. Our S group is piss poor now, so anyone even a 6th round pick should get at least a chance to show what they can do in TC. Nobody's job is safe and if Vereen can come in with a chip on his shoulder and outpreform our lackluster group, we may have 2 rookies starting back there.
    Rd 6 (191) Storm Johnson. HB, Central Florida
    Talented and underrated IMO, this guy can compete with Ford for RB2 duties. I would have liked a better quality guy but as some have pointed out that's probably a year or two away before we invest a quality pick on a RB. Storm was a solid guy and part of UCF's coming out as of recently. Made Bortle's life much easier as he is a true 3 down back who can block, catch, and run. This will be a tight TC battle between Storm and Ford, right now I think Storm gets the edge. Powerful guy that has a 2nd gear to breakaway, he provides excellent value at this pick and can possibly help spell Forte. I really like this guy and think he is a steal here. Could be the next "they got him where??" RB to be drafted.


    If anyone knows how to update the title with the most current version/date please let me know! Hope you enjoyed!
  16. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    not enough O but it's hits all the areas of need
  17. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    Yeah, I even thought it was a bit lobsided with D but for now this is prolly what we need. Our 2 biggest offensive concerns are RB2 and QB2 and I think if we get Murray and Storm we have addressed both those who should beat out what we have now. TE2 is a concern for some, but for me its not. We don't use 2 TE sets and you could play the "what if" game as far as injuries and create a need anywhere. Injuries happen to everyone, and all teams just have to hope injs hit places with depth.
  18. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    I do love Storm as a sleeper rb, Murry's a nice option also at developmental QB. I don't know that we didn't use 2 TE sets b/c they don't want to or b/c they couldn't; and honestly I don't like Rosario at all, and Fendi is either make it or get cut(imo) so that's why i look at TE.
  19. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Pryor then McGill may work out. Two needs are fit there and there are 3rd round DTs although I'm unsure Qaurles would still be there. But Caraun Reid should be and he's probably an equal. Just played against lesser competition but also didn't have the benefit of playing with Clowney which probably has inflated Quarles stats a lot.

    Too much probably depends on what happens with Donald. I can't see them passing on him if he's there. That would surprise me.
  20. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    I actually would not be shocked if they passed on Donald for Pryor or Dix. If they had someone like Quarles or Reid or someone else in mind for the 2nd or 3rd then I could see it. IMO there is a huge gap between Pryor and Buchannon and Dix and Ward but the gap between Donald and Quarles isn't as much.
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