Highly respected Scouting site has an interesting Mock

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by 4dabers, Apr 30, 2014.

  1. butka

    butka Veteran

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    This mock is definitely different than most I've seen. I actually agree with some of the 'unorthodox' rankings this mock has, others are surprising to me.

    For example, I watched both Kony Ealy and Kareem Martin (amongst others). I think both need some coaching and polish, but I would take Kareem Martin over Ealy, personally. I really wasn't that impressed with Ealy. He had terrible awareness and instincts in my opinion. He needs a lot of coaching and he's not physically gifted enough for me to think, "You know what, I've gotta have this guy." I also like Scott Chrichton on tape. He plays hard and if he works on his take off and loosening up a little, he could be an excellent all-around DE in the NFL. I feel like Chrichton is more pro-ready than Martin. Martin has more upside physically though.

    I also see what this mock is saying with Deone Buchanon, I would just be surprised if he went as high as 13, and higher than Dix and Pryor. I could see him going higher than I've seen in many mocks though. I like him and would be ecstatic if we got him in the second round, but I'm not sure he lasts until our spot.
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2014
  2. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    the OTC draft site allows you to pick Ourlads as one of the Big Board Options. If you choose the Texans as the team you want to draft for you can scan thru there raninkings. Interestingly they have Bucannon as the top S at 14 ahead of Dix and Pryor. Here is the top 20
    upload_2014-4-30_17-30-7.png
  3. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Interesting they have Donald ahead of Tuitt, but have the Bears taking Tuitt; I'm guessing b/c of versatility? Also they don't have Dix or Pryor in the top 20 but Mosley and Shazier are.
  4. BelieveInMonsters

    BelieveInMonsters Veteran

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    It would not surprise me one bit if Emery drafted a RB that high (2nd). Forte has ALOT of mileage on him (most touches by a RB in 2013) and is getting close to the dreaded 30-year-old plateau for a RB.

    Ford will be given a shot but, at this point I'm not convinced that he can be a solid feature back if (GOD FORBID) Forte went down with an injury. Draughn isn't the answer.

    RB is just as much of a need as Safety or DT and yet no one is talking about it as much.
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  5. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    BiH, I've already gone over this, 30 is not an endline for RB's, and Forte hasn't hit touch limit for a RB since his 2nd year, the only rb's that fall off a cliff at 30 are the ones run into the ground by their teams, and the Bears haven't done that w/Forte.

    They might well want or need a rb but to ignore the direct need of a starting S or DT (however the draft falls) for a high need such as CB(Tillman is gone next year) and LB(DJ/Briggs are both gone next year and nothing screams confidence about the young LBs) why go w/RB when Forte is as strong as ever? The team needs to address it's top tier needs before it goes and addresses 2nd and 3rd tier. RB/QB are 3rd tier needs.
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  6. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    LOL! Hey Ric. You are looking for the M, not the H. That's the one to the bottom right of the H
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  7. BelieveInMonsters

    BelieveInMonsters Veteran

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    Just out of curiosity do you have links to the numbers which explain the wear and tear on Forte and that "only RBs who have been run into the ground fall off at 30 and later"?

    It's not that I don't believe you, I just find your post very interesting and I'd like to see the numbers that back it up.

    This type of thinking doesn't explain the fact that running backs have become extremely low priority in free agency and the draft. Why are running back prospects who have no NFL wear and tear yet being treated as a low commodity then?
  8. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    I don't think they should be, but a few factors enter into it (IMO). First, the league has become more of a passing game and I think there is a pack mentallity there. It's almost like the definition of a "passing league" means running is unimportant, which is stupid.
    Secondly, there has been a lot of success with older RB's being able to be signed at minimums which decrease the value of the position. I am an against the grain kind of guy. If the league is beefing up it's ability to defend against the pass, hit 'em with the run. That is where they have not been paying much attention to it's defenses.

    In other words, I don;t think there is a valid reason other than everyone else says that the RB is unimportant also, so it must be true.
  9. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    I did the manual work awhile ago, I think I re did it a few mo's back, I'll try and find it when I get time. I took a look at top rb's over the last 10-15, guys like Shawn Alexander, Johnson, LT, Gore, Thomas Jones(who's not on their level but still had a ton of starts) Forte and AP, and what you'll find is that the cliff comes when the RB's have 2-3 years of(I believe I could be wrong don't quote me) 350 or 375+ rushing attempts, not rushing+rec's. The guys that just fell off were literally ran into the ground, For the most part Forte has rarely even had whatever that # is combined w/Rush+Rec.

    Btw, it doesn't mean I want him around until his mid 30's w/no replacement, I'm just not that worried about it b/c of his conditioning and his low amount of touches; I personally, although w/no proof, also think it helps that the majority of his touches and therefore hits come from the outside and not interior linemen or lb's/db's. Guys that constnatly get 350 touches w/the majority coming from the inside of 300lb linemen are going to take a bigger beating.
  10. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    BiM, I never started it's own thead, but here's some findings on some guys:

    For me it's not age of a rb, but attempts, specifically rush attempts that age a RB, in the mid 2000's, at the height of the Shawn Alexander, Ladamian Tolminson, Larry Johnson rb craze I heard someone on the radio talking about rb's, and how 350 rushes was the breaking point, it's been a long time so maybe if i'm interested I'll try and find an article, but basically 350 rushes, was what tended to break a rb down and age them prematurely. I don't think it even takes that much, I personally believe that anything over 300 rush attempts over a prolonged career can break a rb down before 30. So going on that theory you can see why in their late 20's guys like Alexander, and Larry Johnson LT at broke down, and the others, while guys like Frank Gore are able to play and be productive into his 30's:

    Shawn Alexander seems to be the poster boy for why you worry about RB's as they get into their late 20's and nearly 30. But not age, rush attempts were what aged him Shawn had 4 years over 300 rushes, 1 at 295 before he fell off the cliff, 2 of those 5 consecutive years were 350 and 370, his last 2 he was done after that.

    Larry Johnson was broken down by KC in just 2 years, while he never had 3-4-5 years of 300+ or even multiple years of 350 rushing attempts, in 2 years he had 330 and 416 rushes attempts , after the 400 attempt season he was never the same.

    LT SD largely limited his rush attempts to 330 or less but unlike LJ and SA,his 2nd year did he have over 350 attempts, and only 1 time after that, 3 years later did he have close to 350(348). But he had 8 straight years of 330 or more and then was largely limited.

    All three of these rb's were the workhorses of their teams and by 28 they were all done, now lets look at some guys that were very productive after their late 20's:

    Frank Gore has not once has a 300 rush attempt season, Last year he was 30 and had almost 1300 total yards and 9 td's.

    Thomas Jones was productive until 31, he had 3 seasons of 300-330 rush attempts, while he didn't get to be "the man" season one, he did have 7 1K plus seasons most of which came in his late 20's, and his limited touches early on seemed to have extended his career some.

    Matt Forte on the other hand has had 1 year of 300+ rushes, his rookie year, and it was 316, he's never had 350 rushes in a year or even 330, which as shown by LT over multiple seasons can also shorten a career. his 2nd highest rush year was last year at 289, and the 3 years before that were all under 258, 237, 203 and 248. Forte also has never been one to run between the tackles like any of the above RB's did and the Bears have limited his rush attempts to laughably low levels for a starting rb.

    While Forte might be getting older, and edging towards 30, his limited rush attempts, and even more limited hits by 280-300+ pound angry linemen has been very limited. So while it's always wise to have a good backup rb the idea that somehow Forte is about to hit the wall b/c of his age is way off base. Even if you want to look at rec's added in, he's only had 2 years of 350 touches, compared to SA who had 5 straight years of 350 touches, LJ had his 2(absurd years), and LT had 6 years near 400-450 touches, LT is a HoF'r and a freak mind you, a throwback to the 80's and 90's rb's).

    The above is what I wrote earlier this year, I'll add AP into this also.
    In the league 7 years he's only had 3 years where he was over 300 rushes, 314, 348 and 363, the 2 years after the 340 and 360 he had the fewest touches of his career, both in the low 200's 208 and 238, and missed 4 and 2 games, Similarly to LT and unlike SA and LJ, he never had those constant back to back 350 touches, and more then 50% of the time his rushes were limited to under 300.

    AP w/rec's added in was 300, 420, 230, 320, 360, 380, 250, but again like LT he's a freak rare throwback to old RB's. Even w/Rec's added in AP doesn't have the crazy wor horse load of a LT or SA where it's back to back to back constant year's.[/quote]
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  11. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    Well done ric. Thats a lot of work right there. Thanks for sharing.
  12. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    np, if I can ever figure out how to throw an excel file that looks nice in here I'll show the #'s in a prettier more effecient way.

    to boil it down, I think you want to look at is Rush attempts of 300-350+ or combined rush and rec of 350-400+, over the course of 3-4 consecutive seasons, when you combine rush/rec's for Forte he's only had 2 years over 350, and only 1 year of 300+ so even when you add his stuff together his career is still 50% under 300 touches, which is again crazy low #'s for a featured rb.
  13. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    Thought I was alone in this thought BIM. I have beat the drum for a quality RB for a while now, but most don't view it as a need. Ford is what he is, an UDFA who is unlikely to be a guy to take over the RB1 role without a huge dropoff. Also, without a quality number 2 Forte will prolly get the crap kicked out of him again this year in terms of carries and hits he takes.
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  14. butka

    butka Veteran

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    I think a quality RB is something that's a need, but not in round 2. I think these guys can be found in the mid-to-latter rounds nowadays.
  15. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    Depends who is there in the 2nd. If Hyde or Hill (the two best RBs) are on the board at 51 that should draw a ton of thought and comparison to who else is there. Could be enormous value, 5 years ago these guys wouldn't make it out of the first round.
  16. DavidL

    DavidL Pro-Bowler SuperFan

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    I am sort of interested in what the Browns will do in this draft. They say the Browns will draft an OT at #4 and Maziel at #26. It should be the reverse. I don't know what the Browns will do, but I'd bet the farm they won't do what these guys predict.
  17. Henry Burris

    Henry Burris Head Coach

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    I think it's becoming increasingly obvious that Emery wants a safety as early as possible, and thinks that he'll be able to get one with all of the offensive talent in the draft. Maybe he still gets a DT if one is there, but Donald is increasingly predicted to go earlier than #14.
  18. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    I've seen mocks where teams are jumping ahead of Chicago, into the ten range to get Donald, so ya I just don't see him getting drafted by Chicago.
  19. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    Call me crazy but I highly doubt Manziel will get out of the top 10. Yes, he's a "high risk/reward" type pick rather than a "safe" one like Luck and even RG3 were a few years ago. He's also a phenom who's exciting to fans and that fact will push his draft position higher than maybe is justified by the pure football analysis of it. In other words, I can see a down and out franchise like Jacksonville, Oakland, or even Cleveland drafting him early because A) they hope the reward will pan out a la Russell Wilson AND B) they know it will inject excitement into the fan base and put butts in the seats.

    Those first two I mentioned are in deep trouble. Jax can't sell out their stadium and the team is constantly the subject of move-rumors. Oakland needs a new facility and they too are frequently mentioned as a team that may relocate to LA once the physical structure is in place. I can see those two owners being tempted to draft Manziel to invigorate their fan base and give them negotiating leverage in whatever plans they have.
  20. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    That's my impression too. Donald would easily be a top-10 pick guaranteed if he were 10-15 lbs heavier and therefore a little more versatile. St. Louis is gonna field offers for that 13th pick so I wouldn't be surprised at all for someone to move up to get ahead of us if he's still there. And he might not even make it that far.

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