Hub's Bears Big Board: Top 5

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by riczaj01, Apr 16, 2014.

  1. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    http://www.chicagofootball.com/2014/04/15/hubs-bears-big-board-top-5/ao33wfo/?page=1

    Hub's Bears Big Board: Top 5
    By HUB ARKUSH - harkush@chicagofootball.com - Tuesday, April 15, 2014 3:55 p.m. CDT

    Oklahoma State corner back Justin Gilbert (4) looks over the Oklahoma defensive line during an NCAA football game in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Dec. 7, 2013. (AP Photo/Brody Schmidt)
    I have spent the last 36 years analyzing and predicting the NFL Draft from the national perspective with no allegiance to any single team. As such, my “Draft Board” has never included allowances for a specific team’s needs.

    That contrast has been screaming at me the past 36 hours or so since our friends at Bleacher Report asked me for my top five choices for the Bears at No. 14 in the first round.

    The top five players on my overall draft board as it sits today are: 1. Jadeveon Clowney, 2. Khalil Mack, 3. Sammy Watkins, 4. Greg Robinson and 5. Anthony Barr.

    But there is no point in putting any of those players on my “Bears Board” because there isn’t a snowball’s chance down south that any of them will be available at 14.

    6-10 on my board are 6. Blake Bortles, 7. Jake Matthews, 8. Kelvin Benjamin, 9. Justin Gilbert and 10. C.J. Mosley.

    The Bears are not in a position to consider Bortles or Benjamin, and I can’t find a scenario in which Matthews or Mosley last to 14.

    Gilbert shouldn’t slide to 14, but he could. Teddy Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel will almost certainly be overdrafted, even though there is no way they’re among the 15 best prospects in this draft. Eric Ebron, Derek Carr, Timmy Jernigan and Aaron Donald could be taken too high as well.

    It also is worth noting that there are miniscule differences in the grades that most NFL teams and I will put on players ranked between seven and 10, 12 and 15, etc.

    Gilbert shouldn’t be there for the Bears, but he could be and, if he is, I would hope the Bears would jump all over him. Their greatest need is at safety, and it’s easy to argue their second greatest need is cornerback.

    Gilbert could step in at free safety on Day One of training camp or, better yet, the Bears could move Tillman to safety and start Gilbert at corner, strengthening their two biggest weaknesses with one pick.

    That is why Gilbert is No. 1 on my “Bears Board.”

    Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Calvin Pryor are the two best pure safeties in this draft, and I have them as the 18th and 19th best prospects overall. Again, the difference in the grades I have on them and 12. Stephon Tuitt, 13. Marqise Lee and 14. Taylor Lewan is miniscule.

    The Bears need two new starting safeties. If Gilbert, Clinton-Dix or Pryor are available at 14, they have to take one as both the best available player and their greatest need, so Clinton-Dix and Pryor are Nos. 2 and 3.

    Unlike many, I don’t believe Jernigan or Donald are among the top 25 prospects in this draft.

    I have Tuitt at No. 4 on my Bears Board because he may be able to play a three-, four- or five-technique depending on where he lands.

    The problem is the Bears already have signed five defensive ends, and Jeremiah Ratliff, Nate Collins and Lamarr Houston in free agency. Phil Emery has said he wants Allen, Young and Houston on the field at the same time. Houston’s best fit is really as a three-technique, and Allen and Young aren’t sliding inside
    Why would you reach for Jernigan or Donald and still leave huge holes in the secondary? Tuitt is a better prospect and at least his versatility makes sense.

    Eric Ebron is in the fifth slot on my Bears Board. I know, Martellus Bennett is set at tight end. But Ebron is one of the top six or seven athletes in this draft, the Bears have zero depth behind Bennett, and what if the Bears trade down? Ebron has potential Pro Bowler written all over him.

    Of course I’d love a Clowney, Matthews or Mosley, but realistically Gilbert is probably the very best the Bears can hope for, and Clinton-Dix or Pryor would be really nice fits.

    Hub's Bears Big Board

    1. Oklahoma State CB Justin Gilbert

    2. Alabama FS Ha Ha Clinton-Dix

    3. Louisville SS Calvin Pryor

    4. Notre Dame DT Stephon Tuitt

    5. North Carolina TE Eric Ebron

    Don't fully agree w/that Big Board, Tuitt's more DE Then DT and if it came down to that type of player I'd rather have Hagemen potentially in the 2nd. I do agree w/the first 3 though, the team did a TON of work to the DL and while they added depth to the DB group they didn't add starters, Mundy and the dude from GB are no better then Conte when it comes to being given a starting spot, none are worthy.

    I find it interesting that Hub stated Emery wants Allen/Ratliff/Houston/Young all on the field at the same time. He's at all the pressers, and has access to Emery and otheres in the Org so I believe Emery said that, but it does bring up the queston of how often he wants that and how Emery really sees Houston, DT or DE; that also changes how the team goes into the draft. The only quote(okay I really didn't search that much) I found was from this ESPN article:

    http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/bears/tag/_/name/phil-emery

    "It's up to our coaches to find ways to get them all on the field at the same time or at different times or different personnel groupings or groupings against personnel," Emery said.

    I did find this article by Hoge also regarding positional battles:

    http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2014/04...-notebook-no-10-identifying-position-battles/

    Allen will be the starting right end, which means Houston and Young will be moving around and joined in the rotation by guys like Israel Idonije and David Bass. That’s not a bad thing, however, as both Houston and Young have versatility, which will keep opposing offenses guessing.
    In fact, this isn’t so much a competition for playing time as it is figuring out how to properly use talented assets. The defensive line rotations will be interesting to watch throughout the offseason


    take those into consideration and numerous other article that talk about how Houston will get pushed inside on passing downs and have Young play LDE and you start to get a feeling that Analysts and Bears Beat guys think Houston will play more time at DT then many fans are thinking. And if that's the case then it's very possible that DT isn't going to be as much of a concern as many fans are thinking.

    I'll be happy w/any D player at 14, b/c I've given up assuming what Emery will do w/his first pick and I have no idea what 4-3 front they plan on running, these are all just differing views to help us all keep an open mind and reduce the shock of something crazy happens.
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  2. sluggobear

    sluggobear Veteran

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    I would be happy with any of the choices. My first choice would be Pryor. Gilbert and DIx are not as good at supporting the run. Tuitt and Ebron would be in consideration if we traded down.
  3. weneedmorelinemen

    weneedmorelinemen Veteran

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    This was good analysis by Hub, and good digging by you ric for the related articles. I'm thinking the Bears first rounder should be a defensive back, be it safety or corner. We need both. Hell, we should take one of each in the first and second round if the value is there but not reach.

    If Mosley fell and the Bears took him, that'd be fine too. Briggs is on his last year here before he visits with Lovie in Tampa in 2015 and picks out his retirement home, and if DJ Williams is injured I don't know what the Bears do at MLB other than revisit past failures at the position.

    I'm thinking less and less that the Bears are taking a defensive lineman in the first. Of course, Emery is going to throw everyone off by drafting Buchannon in the first round or something weird like that, so all bets are off once the draft hits.
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  4. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Thanks WNML, I'm a fan of the DB's and Mosely to, if the team did go DT I think it will be b/c the run on DB's happened early and they just go BPA D player.

    But w/this there should be no "reaches" b/c of the depth and the lack of star quality elite players at 14, which is something Hub is pointing out, these guys in the mid to latter part of the draft are really close in talent level. As Long as Emery doesn't go all Emery and take a 2nd round guy no one should freak out at his picks. One of the things I saw in one of the articles I read was about how there are NO leaks out of Chicago anymore, so if you see one thing about what the Bears are planning , bank on them going another direction.
  5. weneedmorelinemen

    weneedmorelinemen Veteran

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    This whole not showing his hand thing Emery has got going really makes me happy we've got him running the show. I'd always felt that Angelo got read like an open book. Like when the Steelers traded in front of the Bears to take Santonio Holmes because that was the guy JA wanted and they knew it. Not that Holmes was such an awesome player but that they knew who he was targeting really aggravated me. I like this new cloak and dagger approach Halas Hall has taken.

    I like that betting on the Bears to take "Such and such" a player will only lead you to lose that bet. I hope Emery keeps it up.
  6. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Didn't GB do the same thing, they leaked information that they wanted someone, I think it was Grossman but I could be wrong, and the Bears snatched him up to make sure GB didn't.

    Emery seems to take an approach like Sea did when you pointed out they wanted one of 2 qb's in the draft, but they were going to take them at their time and if they didn't fall they had a backup plan for that to. And I agree, while it seems agrivating I do like that I have no idea what Emery is planning b/c that means others teams are less likely to know also.
  7. weneedmorelinemen

    weneedmorelinemen Veteran

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    I'd heard that Green Bay was high on Grossman and the Bears took him to prevent him from falling to him too, But that's really hard to prove. That is a different problem that I've always hoped was not true about Angelo. If he really did take a player he was not high on to prevent another team from getting him, that would make him a such a fool I've just hoped he was not that stupid.

    I think a succeesful NFL should have a plan in place and follow that plan. Emery has got a plan. For better or worse, he knows what direction he is going and has reasons for his moves. Angelo seemed to just kind of float along grabbing guys with no idea what to do with them. Like when he went headlong into the fight with ten other teams to get Omiyale, a backup swing tackle whose best position, oddly enough, was LT, only to force him to start at LG and RT just showed me how much he was just guessing at what his team needed.
  8. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    That 2nd part is why I believe he drafted people to prevent them from going elsewhere. And yes for better or worse(shea/long) Emery has a plan. I'm certian those were the guys he targetted and tried to move back and couldn't so he just took them anyways, which is technically fine, if that is YOUR guy then you might have to reach for him.
  9. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    back on subject, am I the only one that would not hate Ebron as the pick at 14? I think about the Def depth of this draft and think of what this team could do w/2 TE sets if they had Ebron and think they could get a DT for rotation, still get 2 S's to complete and a LB to sit for a year w/out hurting to much.
  10. JustAnotherBearsFan99

    JustAnotherBearsFan99 Coordinator SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I am coming around to thinking this way too. I have a feeling that we will not spend that #14 pick on a DT.
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  11. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    It's funny because I am getting the same suspicions. Now, if he does, I will laugh out loud because he has successully thrown several people off the scent (I am sure some other GMs as well). Either he has masterfully manipulated the environment or we have all successfully read the little tidbits that we were given (or maybe both)
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  12. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    No, I wouldn't hate it. The guy is too much of a talent to "hate it". He wouldn't be my first choice, but I would certainly enjoy watching him play for US on Sundays.
  13. lklrlolnlilklsox

    lklrlolnlilklsox Position Coach

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    As I said a couple days ago, I really like Tuitt - he's a stud. However, his foot surgery immediately moves him down my big board and out of consideration at 14.
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  14. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    I view a TE as more of a "would be nice" whereas I view the secondary as a real need. DT can arguably be called a "would be nice" since we have not seen the new line play, but I just don't see an interior disruptor right now.
  15. 4dabers

    4dabers Veteran DBS Writer

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    This wont happen, but just for the sake of argument:
    Emery has already beefed up D-Line in FA. What if the first and second picks are Pryor/Dix and then Jimmie Ward. Suddenly our Defensive line is fixed (at least much improved), we brought back our starting corners (still need future), our Safety's are fixed with rookies (but stud rookies), and if Shea can step up at MLB (like I frankly think he can), then this Defense is looking a LLLLOOOOOTTTT different from last year.

    Food for thought.
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  16. weneedmorelinemen

    weneedmorelinemen Veteran

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    If we got Ebron, I'd be okay with that. If Trestman wants to run two tight end sets, we certainly have dogcrap at the position once you get past Bennett so it is a need and he is valued at about that level of a pick. Emery put a lot of FA money into the defense this offseason so maybe he thinks he can do that. Maybe that's the direction he's going. It sure would not be a conventional pick, so right on par with Emery's style of drafting.
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  17. weneedmorelinemen

    weneedmorelinemen Veteran

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    Eh, I don't know if going back to back rookie safeties is that great of an idea. Not with the need at CB because Tillman is an injury risk and on his last year as a Bear. I think one vet out of the guys we have on the roster will be starting this year at safety.
  18. a_miljan

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    Im just reading all ur posts and enjoying all this, God knows im gonna enjoy draft even more.
    Regarding our 1st pick, somehow I feel we cant and wont pick wrong, besides we didn't have this high of a pick for ages
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  19. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    Emery could fool us all and go with Hageman. Wouldn't shock me all that much.
  20. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    4Da, I think there is a better shot of Emery going S or LB 1st, opposite of the 1st 2nd or DT, and then grabbing a guy that can play CB/S in the 3rd there are a couple 3 guys in the mid rounds that are slotted as both.

    The LB position is a far bigger problem imo, Bostic is experienced now, but was not anything close to good last year, and Shea is a complete wild card, Greene was actually worse then Bostic; and Briggs/DJ(as much as I like both) are hardly locks to play at a high level all year, if they can even stay healthy. That core, which originally looked deep at least at OLB, is thin all around.
    IF Shea/Bostic/Greene all take GIGANTIC leaps this year, ya that core is set, but the depth is still super thin.

    Emery really throwing everyone for a loop is taking Teddy B-Side as he slides or the OT, Lewen*sp?, Hagemen would just piss people off :)

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