Interesting Look At Some Mocks..........

Discussion in 'Chicago Bears' started by soulman, Apr 10, 2014.

  1. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Chicago Bears 2014 NFL Draft Fact or Fiction
    By Ross Read , Featured Columnist Apr 10, 2014

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2023560-chicago-bears-2014-nfl-draft-fact-or-fiction
    Use the link to review the choices and your ← → (arrow) keys to browse the slideshow
    [​IMG]
    Michael Conroy
    Virginia Tech cornerback Kyle Fuller

    We are less than one month away from the NFL draft. Rumors and mock drafts will continue to come fast and furious as we await the night Rodger Goodell officially tells us the Houston Texans are on the clock.

    The Bears have made a ton of impact moves in free agency and the plan has been centered toward rebuilding the defense. It's highly likely that the team will continue the trend in the first few rounds of the draft.

    Given there are still holes at defensive tackle, safety and cornerback, speculation has run rampant on how the Bears will fill those slots. Who's been visiting Halas Hall? Who might be atop the big board?

    Cycle through as we decipher the major rumors and decide whether they are fact or fiction.

    Donald; Fact (best overall pick and not a guy we should pass on if he's still one the board at #14)

    Hageman; Fiction (a poor and very risky pick who has big bust potential and isn't a good fit anyway)

    Bucannon; Fact (I might prefer Jimmie Ward but if he's gone Bucannon is probably next in line)

    Mosley; Fiction (too much speculation over where he would play best and could easily fail as a 4-3 MLB)

    Fuller; Fact (hoping is doesn't come to this since I don't feel he's worth the #14 pick but still possible)
  2. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    love how these idiot writers know what they are talking about if they fit souls thought process.
  3. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I thought this was kind of an interesting approach as far as wading though those who might both still be on the board and have been mentioned as possible picks for the Bears. Use the link to run through the slide show over at B/R. Yeah, yeah I know but it's not all bad.

    To me the Donald/Bucannon picks in one and two would keep me very happy. Like I said I'd prefer Ward but if he's not there then it's next man up and we do need to draft a Safety who can come in and compete to start. My biggest issue with the Bucannon pick is that to me he's a pure SS. I don't see him having the goods to play deep and be any better and maybe worse in deep coverage than Conte has been at times. In fact Conte may even be the better of the two at that . So this pick comes down to whether or not they feel Mundy can move to FS and compete with Conte and Jennings.

    Hageman would be my nightmare pick and the one that would cause me to scream what in hell are you thinking Phil? As much as I think Mosley will be a good pro I still don't see him as a 4-3 MLB as much as I do a 3-4 ILB or a WLB where his speed and range will work out better. The Fuller pick at #14 would just make me blink and question whether he was worth it. He needs a year to add some weight and strength so we using that pick on a non-starter and to me that's a no no. IMHO Fuller isn't worth that pick and falls into the mix with Roby and Verrett but will go higher because of his size advantage.
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  4. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    Pretty much on the same page. I'm not all that high on Hageman (at #14), but Jernigan or Nix might work. I'd like Donald though. I was actually ok with Mosely, but maybe I'm wrong... IDK. I think Fuller at 14 is too high, but while I loved the Kyle Long pick, thought it also was a reach. So if he picks Fuller, I'll try to forget about McClellin and take a wait and see attitude.
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  5. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    No one will ever convince me that Nix will be of any benefit to the Bears. I don't like his size, I don't like the fact that he may have a potentially chronic knee problem, I don't like the fact that he'll add nothing to the pass rush, and I don't like the fact that he lacks the demeanor to play DT or NT in the NFL. He's nice kid and THAT'S the problem.

    I also have this personal suspicion about any ND DLineman because they're never as good as advertised in the pros. I believe that guys like Nix and Tuitt will get drafted high enough and will play in the NFL but that they'll never be that kind of player their draft status projects them to be. I'd take Jernigan 99 times out of 100 before I take any of the other DL rated to go in one.

    If we hadn't drafted Bostic last year and still need to get our investment out of him I'd me more oriented towards taking a shot with Mosley because I think if he goes to the right team and plays in a 3-4 scheme I think he'll be a very good LB but I have suspicions about him in a 4-3 as anything other than a WLB and by all rights that's where Bostic should be after Briggs hangs it up.
  6. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    I guess our views on Nix diverge because I think he would be able to penetrate. If I didn't think so, I'd be right there with you. His injury does worry me, but there have been injured players that came in like they were never injured and there were some that looked like they never were. Do you want to take a risk with #14 -- not especially. Doesn't mean I'm right, but those were my thoughts. I'd by far prefer Donald, but not sure that he will still be there. Someone good will be though.
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  7. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Nix also lost a ton of weight, so the knee should hopefully be less of an issue. I agree w/you BiH, everything I've read about him is that he CAN penetrate and get after the qb, and can do it from either 3-4 NT or 4-3 NT or DT, he's a rare athlete(if the med sheet comes back clean) that can play both schemes.
  8. Bearsinhouston

    Bearsinhouston Position Coach

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    yeah... like I said, you never really know if you are right or wrong on this stuff, but I'd be ok with him or Jernigan if we wiff on Donald. Some days I think Nix would even be better than Jernigan. I flip flop. He has a lot of ability and potential. It just depends on whether or not I think he will reach his potential or not on any given day as to whether I think he would be a good pick or not.
  9. riczaj01

    riczaj01 DaBears Ditka DBS Writer

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    Everyone from 10-32 has flaws, Donald is his size, Nix is his knee, Jernigan his work ethic, Hageman his "fit" Tuitt his "fit" Mosely his "fit" Pryor if he's a FS or SS, etc. No one at 14 is going to be a transendent player, at least no one is calling for that, not even Donald.

    I'll be happy w/just about anyone this year unless the team passes on a guy that clearly fell, or at least didn't take advantage of that fall to drop back. This years draft has a TON of really good talent, but lacks the top end guys so there is no real reason to fret when the team has so many holes; as long as those get plugged somewhere the team should be good.

    Give me in any order
    Dix
    Donald
    Pryor
    Nix
    Dennard
    Hagemen
    Tuitt
    Mosely
    Jernigan
    Gilbert

    in the first and you are getting a guy that will play and contribute day 1, that's all I care about.
  10. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    I realize Mosley played in a 34 but most scouting reports believe he can play anywhere including 43 MLB. Urlacher was fast and played a Hybrid S-LB at Arizona. Mosley to me seems very similar to URL, he can cover both zone and man, which is critical to a cover 2 is a good cover MLB. He is a good tackler and he is fast. Not pulling up his specs but if I remember he is like 6-2 and 245 lbs, and could easily add 10 lbs to bulk up a little more, which all college players generally need to do when they hit the NFL. Pretty significant fall in skill to Skov or Borland. I keep going round the merry-go-round but would be happy if we just build up the front 7 because after Buchannon none of the remaining S in this draft appear to be better than what we have (Dixon, Loston, Bailey and Reed may be equivalent) to Steltz.

    Now the marry go round, Mosley or Donald in rd 1 vs Quarles and Skov. And if you through a S in there for rd 2, in rd 3 you hope for Borland or Skov vs Sutton. Not taking Donald seems to benefit the other players but you miss that top 3 tech. Just wish the draft would get here and Phil could solve the puzzle.
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  11. abegibronlives

    abegibronlives Rookie

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    I'd give Mosely a look. I think he's good enough to be the next in line as a great Chicago Bear middle linebacker, and I'm not sure anyone we currently have on the roster fits that bill. And if we pass on Mosely, he could very likely end up in Green and Gold, and terrorize us for the next 10-15 years.

    As for the safeties (which is definitely a need), Dix and Pryor seem to be the best prospects, so one of them might be worthy of the #14 overall pick (especially Dix). Not sure if any of the others are.
  12. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Difference of interpretation of what penetrate means brother. He can push the pocket yeah, but penetrate no. Too big and not quick enough. That's why Lovie always liked the smaller quicker guys who have a quick burst off the snap. You're trying to beat the block before the OG can get his hands on you and get set or split the double which in his prime Tommie Harris was a master of. The penetrator doesn't always get the sack or make the tackle but he messes up the blocking scheme so badly that others will if he doesn't.

    Nix doesn't play that way. He's a two gap run stuffer and hole plugger whose main job is to stay home and NOT penetrate. Here's his Combine Profile. I'm not saying he can't play at all but what I highlighted bears out my opinion about him and I'm not alone in that opinion. The guy is basically a pure 3-4 NT in much the same way the Aaron Donald is a pure 4-3 3 tech DT. IMHO these guys are not very scheme versatile once they get to the pros. Sure you could play Nix in a 4-3 and use him to protect your MLB like we did with Traylor and Washington but why spend a 1st round pick on a guy like that when that isn't the way the defense is schemed anymore. Donald could play a rushing DE position too like Freeney did at Indy but Freeney WAS a DE in college, Donald wasn't. So why would a team take the top DT in the draft and have him change positions? It could happen but to me it's not very smart as Phil Emery found out.

    Louis Nix
    NT Notre Dame
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Grade
    5.9?
    • 5.42 SEC
      Top Performer
    • 25.5 INCH
      Top Performer
    • 97.0 INCH
      Top Performer
    • 8.29 SEC
      Top Performer
    • 4.94 SEC
      Top Performer
    • 6'2" Height
    • 33" Arm Length
    • 331LBS. Weight
    • 9 7/8" Hands
    Overview
    2013: First Team All-Independent. Played and started eight games. Missed five games due to torn meniscus and had surgery in November. 2012: First Team All-Independent. Played in all 13 games with 11 starts. Did not start against Michigan State or Pittsburgh. Led all Notre Dame defensive linemen with 50 tackles. 2011: First Team All-Independent. Played in all 13 games with 11 starts. Did not start vs USF or Navy. 2010: Redshirted. High School: SuperPrep All-American. Under Armour All-American. Misc: Film, television and theater major. Graduated in December.

    Analysis
    Strengths
    Outstanding size. Commands a double team and has two-gap ability. Good quickness off the snap. Has press strength and power to push blockers into the backfield. Shows disruptive ability when his battery is charged. Flashes an arm-over. Redirects well for a big man. Nice pursuit effort. Strong wrap tackler. Scheme versatile.

    Weaknesses
    Can play with better leverage against double teams. Does not dominate single blocking. Needs to improve hand use -- punch impact, counter moves and shed timing. Limited pass-rush value (minimal sack production). Can do a better job protecting his legs -- is not as strong on his pegs as you'd expect and spends too much time on the ground. Conditioning and stamina will have to be monitored -- takes plays off and weight has fluctuated.

    Bottom Line
    Despite standing to benefit from a more dominant senior season in South Bend, Nix, who already graduated, opted to forgo his final year of eligibility in order to provide for 13 siblings. He does not enter the NFL with momentum, having coped with knee tendinitis before season-ending surgery to repair a torn left meniscus, and too often his gregarious personality and media hype overshadowed his performance. However, if the massive interior defender taps into his power more consistently, Nix has ample mass, strength and athleticism to anchor a "30" front as a space-eating, block-occupying run stuffer.

    -Nolan Nawrocki
  13. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    I do not believe Nawrocki likes anybody. Look at Donald, I am sure you seen this one as well. I much prefer cbs over this guy. My favorite is normally Scott Wright and draftcountdown but this year he is lagging on his reports.
    upload_2014-4-10_19-5-45.png
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  14. MPbears68

    MPbears68 Pro-Bowler

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    I read this same report on NFL.com and was left shaking my head. Either it's way out of date or the scout is high. Really high. If Aaron Donald reaches the 4th, then it will snow on draft day here in Phoenix.
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  15. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I don't know what date you found that one from but here's what's on the NFL site today and has been ever since I began posting from there. There's no mention of what round he's projected to be taken in and I seriously doubt that after his season at Pitt, the Sr. Bowl AND the Combine anyone but a drunk or the insane would have seen him as a 4th-5th round pick. I have no idea where that came from but it's not there on the NFL site now nor has been recently whenever I've referenced it.

    Regardless, I stand by what I posted earlier. Louis Nix is a bad pick for the Bears for all of the reasons I posted and while he may have been mentioned in a few early mocks today NOT ONE I've seen recently seriously believes Nix is on the Bears board at #14. Of those who are projecting the Bears taking a DT the majority say Donald with one or to picking either Jernigan or Hageman. BSB you can post this stuff until you're blue in the face but NO ONE will ever convince me Louis Nix would be a good pick for the Bears.

    Jesus Christ himself could visit me tonight and try to convince me and I'd tell even him that he was wrong. In addition to everything else just look at his stats from the Combine; 40 yd. dash - 5.42 sec., (he's a f'n freight train) Donald bested him by .74 secs and that's an eternity in this game, 3 cone shuttle - 8.29 sec., (that's not a nimble, quick DT) Donald bested him by well over 1 sec. Donald blew Nix away in every single category by a wide margin and Nix didn't lift so we don't even know if he could even come close to the 35 reps Donald put up.

    We also debated arm length so let's compare Donald at 32 5/8" who you initially thought had short arms to Nix whose arm length is just 33" so we're talking 3/8" for a guy whose taller and 50lbs heavier. I just don't get where anyone would ever see Nix as anything other than what he is. A wide body NT whose Combine stats actually belie some of what his analysis says whereas Donald's stats not only confirm it but they underline it. Nix's struggles with his weight and conditioning are also well known.

    Maybe the one about Nix that give me the biggest chuckle is, "nice pursuit effort", LOL. Yeah and with a 5.42/40 that's all it's gonna be is an effort. Can anybody honestly see this kid chasing Aaron Rodgers or any other mobile QB down? I'm not even sure how they can advertise quickness off the snap when this kid has weighed as much as 350lbs and has been out of shape as much as has been at times. Fridge was quick too when he was a rookie who weighed 313lbs but after he ate enough biscuits to reach 330lbs and then 350lbs he lost that.

    Nix is a NT with some issues that are enough to have some teams not even have him on their board period and based on the defense we play I don't why the Bears would decide they have any use for him either. I'm no pro scout or NFL GM put if anyone told me they were drafting this kid because they thought he could penetrate and disrupt like a fast off the mark DT can I'd ask them what color the sky was in their world. He's pure two gap NT and if he can't keep his weight in check and learn to get tougher he won't even be very good at that.


    Aaron Donald
    DT Pittsburgh
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Grade
    5.35?
    • 4.68 SEC
      Top Performer - 40 yd. dash
    • 35 REPS
      Top Performer - Bench Press
    • 32.0 INCH
      Top Performer
    • 116.0 INCH
      Top Performer
    • 7.11 SEC
      Top Performer - 3 cone shuttle
    • 4.39 SEC
      Top Performer
    Blue Star = Top Performer
    • 6'1" Height
    • 32 5/8" Arm Length
    • 285LBS. Weight
    • 9 7/8" Hands

    Overview
    2013: First-team All-American and first-team All-ACC selection. Was Outland Trophy, Chuck Bednarik AWard and Bronko Nagurski Award winner. 2012: First-team All-Big East selection. Led team with 5.5 sacks and 18.5 tackles for loss. 2011: Second-team All-Big East after playing in all 13 games and making five starts. 2010: Played in all 13 games. Led the team with 11 sacks.

    Analysis
    Strengths
    Quick off the snap. Natural leverage. Gets under pads and into gaps. Good foot athlete -- redirects well and can work the edges and loop and stunt. Flexible enough to zone drop in short area. Plays with awareness and consistently locates the ball. Closes hard and fast. Keeps working to the ball. Disruptive penetrating ability. Outstanding career production -- 63 TFL and 27.5 sacks the last three seasons. Tough and competitive. Team captain with terrific personal and football character.

    Weaknesses
    Marginal height and frame is nearly maxed out. Hands are more active than strong -- could play with more pop and power. Overpowered in the run game and ground up by double teams. Gets snared and controlled by bigger, longer blockers. Not a two-gap player. Has some tweener traits -- lacks ideal length and bend to play outside.

    Bottom Line
    Short, scrappy, instinctive, highly productive defensive lineman who does not look the part, but inspires confidence he can be an exception to the rule. Is the type you root for and has the quickness, athleticism and motor to earn a spot as a rotational three-technique in a fast-flowing 4-3 scheme.

    -Nolan Nawrocki
  16. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    I clicked on the mock draft and thats what came up, Probably sense its a link from the draft they added the rd projection which we know is incorrect. The other verbiage appears to be the same
  17. BSBEARS

    BSBEARS Pro-Bowler

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    My point was not your opinion on either player just I fine Nawrocki somewhat questionable on his scouting reports.

    I believe a month or so back you pointed out the NT and DT are different positions and different needs. I believe Nix 10 yard split in the 40 is what people like as it shows his quickness from the NT position, Pretty sure you already knew that but ..... just sayin
  18. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    Yeah it is and yeah where the came up with ranking I'll never know but it's pretty obvious someone didn't do their editing job before it was published. These draft publications seem to get worse with each successive year. The draft is such a huge horse show now that people will but the product and since nobody seems to care all that much about accuracy a lot of inaccurate stuff gets out. You just have to wade through it.

    Even if their ratings or draft rankings made no sense the rest of the data seems pretty spot on to me. I think he was fair and his analysis of each one's strengths and weaknesses and lacking any better access to pro scouting reports from the actual pro scouting combines themselves this, and some reading between the lines, is all we have to go on.
  19. soulman

    soulman Pro-Bowler SuperFan DBS Writer

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    I did and I don't disagree that for a man his size he probably has worked on a pretty quick "get off" from the snap. But even that won't put him in the same range as Donald, or any other top NFL 3 tech like Adkins or McCoy or even Melton. He's quick for a NT but that still doesn't make him a 4-3 DT and few would ever argue that he is. His role is to get off on the snap, get into his man fast and control his gap or gaps. He ties up blockers and consumes space so that others typically make the tackle or the sack when he's bull rushing to collapse the pocket.

    He can get away with playing a little high because of his size and as long as he can anchor and hold his ground he's productive. The 3 tech DT has to come off the ball low and play low in order to penetrate. He doesn't hold the gap he tries to pierce it and disrupt by getting into the backfield behind the line blocking. His whole purpose is to blow up plays far more than it is to just stop them in his gap. He's the guy who should have some sacks, and ton of pressures and hits, and as many TFLs as he can. If he can't do that he hurts the team more than he helps because he's gambling on penetration and disruption spoiling the play before it can get blocked because his gap may be wide open.

    Even thought Melton wasn't playing all that well early last years as far as his pass rush he was still mucking things up enough that we were stopping the run far better when he or Collins were playing DT than we ever were later on. Even playing Ratliff there was more of a stop gap because he isn't really a 3 tech DT either. He's a 4-3 NT and a very good one, or at least he was. Ratliff is big enough and strong enough to even play a two gap NT is he had to. Not all of those guys are 330lbs but it helps if most of them are. In a 4-3 one gap defense the DT and the NT are two very different position no different than say a MLB and an OLB. One player cannot necessarily play both and do well although some can do it at times.

    Paea would be a good example. He's more the size of a 3 tech DT and he has that quick burst off the snap but he lack that foot speed to chase and pursue. So since he has some pretty incredible natural strength and leverage because he's short he plays NT. He could play some DT but it will never be his best position. That was covered in his scouting reports too. We had AA and Toe playing NT, and Melton playing DT with Okoye as the NT/DT swing guy and initially Paea was gonna back Melton but after he arrived he showed better at NT so away went AA and then Toe and Okoye and Paea won the NT spot with Collins becoming the swing NT/DT and Izzy playing some DT on passing downs.

    At the bottom of it all is that we don't really use a guy like Nix. He's a big body NT like the guys the Packers have had for years in their 3-4. Guys like Raji, Jolly, and Pickett. Guys like Wilfork in NE and Halota in Balt. These guys are or have all been good or great NTs but they're not 4-3 DTs. None of them. That's the reason I'm saying that Nix is not a fit in the Bears defense. Just as trying to make at DE out McClellin was a waste of his true talents so would be trying to make a conventional DT out of a guy built to play 3-4 NT and who played that in college. Any evaluation done one him would have been done primarily on that basis so how accurate will that be if you move him to a different position?
  20. Grizzblue

    Grizzblue Pro-Bowler

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    I wouldn't touch Nix with a 10 ft pole. Hes not a very great fit at 3tech and despite trying to get lighter is still at natural NT 0/1 tech. He has injury concerns and also players from ND always have inflated draft value and rarely preform up to par. Don't know why but its true, kinda like USC Qbs that have a nasty habit of flaking out in the pros. I would take Hageman in a heartbeat over him but Jerrigan and Quarles over both the two if Donald isn't there. No DL is really worth that 14 pick other than Donald IMO.
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